793 resultados para long-run dynamics


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It is debated that for sustainable STEM education and knowledge investment, human centered learning design approach is critical and important. Sustainability in this context is enduring maintenance of technological trajectories for productive economical and social interactions by demonstrating life critical scenarios through life critical system development and life experiences. Technology influences way of life and the learning and teaching process. Social software application development is more than learning of how to program a software application and extracting information from the Internet. Hence, our research challenge is, how do we attract learners to STEM social software application development? Our realisation processes begin with comparing Science and Technology education in developed (e.g., Australia) and developing (e.g., Sri Lanka) countries with distinction on final year undergraduates’ industry ready training programmes. Principal components analysis was performed to separate patterns of important factors. To measure behavioural intention of perceived usefulness and attitudes of the training, the measurement model was analysed to test its validity and reliability using partial least square (PLS) analysis of structural equation modelling (SEM). Our observation is that the relationship is more complex than we argue for. Our initial conclusions were that life critical system development and life experience trajectories as determinant factors while technological influences were unavoidable. A further investigation should involve correlations between human centered learning design approach and economical development in the long run.

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This study tests whether an international market exists in the platinum-group metal (PGM) futures markets. For this purpose, we tested the law of one price (LOP) and the causality between the U.S. and Japanese platinum and palladium futures markets. We also performed the test when structural breaks are considered. Long-run price relationships were found in both platinum and palladium markets but the LOP only sustained in the palladium market. The causality test revealed that it is the U.S. market that leads the price to transmit information between the U.S. and Japanese markets. Structural breaks had large impacts on the test results, suggesting that incorporating breaks is important when investigating the international price linkage in the PGM futures markets.

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This study investigates how markets for different levels of copper purity are interrelated by testing the long-run price linkage and causalities among the copper futures, primary, copper scrap, and brass scrap markets. It is expected that copper markets that deal with high purity levels, such as the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets, have a long-run relationship. However, brass scrap markets where copper with a lower purity is traded may not have a price linkage with other copper markets. The results reveal that a long-run relationship holds between the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets but the brass scrap market does not have a long-run relationship with the other markets. From the short-run and long-run causality tests, we determine that the futures market plays an important role in transmitting price information to other copper markets while such information flow is not found for the brass scrap market.

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Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.

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Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.

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In this paper, we assess whether quality survives the test of time in academia by comparing up to 80 years of academic journal article citations from two top journals, Econometrica and the American Economic Review. The research setting under analysis is analogous to a controlled real world experiment in that it involves a homogeneous task (trying to publish in top journals) by individuals with a homogenous job profile (academics) in a specific research environment (economics and econometrics). Comparing articles published concurrently in the same outlet at the same time (same issue) indicates that symbolic capital or power due to institutional affiliation or connection does seem to boost citation success at the beginning, giving those educated at or affiliated with leading universities an initial comparative advantage. Such advantage, however, does not hold in the long run: at a later stage,the publications of other researchers become as or even more successful.

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Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) are safety critical component of the automatic block signalling and broken rail detection systems. IRJs exhibit several failure modes due to complex interaction between the railhead ends and the wheel tread near the gap. These localised zones could not be monitored using automatic sensing devices and hence are resorted to visual inspection only, which is error prone and expensive. In Australia alone currently there are 50,000 IRJs across 80,000 km of rail track. The significance of the problem around the world could thus be realised as there exists one IRJ for each 1.6 km track length. IRJs exhibit extremely low and variable service life; further the track substructure underneath IRJs degrade faster. Thus presence of the IRJs incur significant costs to track maintenance. IRJ failures have also contributed to some train derailments and various traffic disruptions in rail lines. This paper reports a systematic research carried out over seven years on the mechanical behaviour of IRJs for practically relevant outcomes. The research has scientifically established that stiffening the track bed for reduction in impact force is an ill-conceived concept and the most effective method is to reduce the gap size. Further it is established that hardening the railhead ends through laser coating (or other) cannot adequately address the metal flow problem in the long run; modification of the railhead profile is the only appropriate technique to completely eliminate the problem. Part of these outcomes has been adopted by the rail infrastructure owners in Australia.

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Tourism plays an important role in the development of Cook Islands. In this paper we examine the nexus between tourism and growth using quarterly data over the period 2009Q1–2014Q2 using the recently upgraded ARDL bounds test to cointegration tool, Microfit 5.01, which provides sample adjusted bounds and hence is more reliable for small sample size studies. We perform the cointegration using the ARDL bounds test and examine the direction of causality. Using visitor arrival and output in per capita terms as respective proxy for tourism development and growth, we examine the long-run association and report the elasticity coefficient of tourism and causality nexus, accordingly. Using unit root break tests, we note that 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 are two structural break periods in the output series. However, we note that this period is not statistically significant in the ARDL model and hence excluded from the estimation. Subsequently, the regression results show the two series are cointegrated. The long-run elasticity coefficient of tourism is estimated to be 0.83 and the short-run is 0.73. A bidirectional causality between tourism and income is noted for Cook Islands which indicates that tourism development and income mutually reinforce each other. In light of this, socio-economic policies need to focus on broad-based, inclusive and income-generating tourism development projects which are expected to have feedback effect.

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South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

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The ergodic or long-run average cost control problem for a partially observed finite-state Markov chain is studied via the associated fully observed separated control problem for the nonlinear filter. Dynamic programming equations for the latter are derived, leading to existence and characterization of optimal stationary policies.

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Using an OLG-model with endogenous growth and public capital we show, that an international capital tax competition leads to inefficiently low tax rates, and as a consequence to lower welfare levels and growth rates. Each national government has an incentive to reduce the capital income tax rates in its effort to ensure that this policy measure increases the domestic private capital stock, domestic income and domestic economic growth. This effort is justified as long as only one country applies this policy. However, if all countries follow this path then all of them will be made worse off in the long run.

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This study examines the transformation of the society of estates in the Finnish Grand Duchy through the case study of Senator Lennart Gripenberg and his family circle. While national borders and state structures changed, the connections between old ruling elite families remained intact as invisible family networks, ownership relations, economic collaboration and power of military families. These were the cornerstones of trust, which helped to strengthen positions gained in society. Also, these connections often had a central if unperceivable impact on social development and modernization. Broadly speaking, the intergenerational social reproduction made it possible for this network of connections to remain in power and, as an imperceptible factor, also influenced short-term developments in the long run. Decisions which in the short term appeared unproductive, would in the long run produce cumulative immaterial and material capital across generations as long-term investments. Social mobility, then, is a process which clearly takes several generations to become manifest. The study explores long-term strategies of reproducing and transferring the capital accumulated in multinational elite networks. Also, what was the relationship of these strategies to social change? For the representatives of the military estate the nobility and for those men of the highest estates who had benefited from military training, this very education of a technical-military nature was the key to steering, controlling and dealing with the challenges following the industrial breakthrough. The disintegration of the society of estates and the rising educational standards also increased the influence of those professionals previously excluded, which served to intensify competition for positions of power. The family connections highlighted in this study overlapped in many ways, working side by side and in tandem to manage the economic and political life in Finland, Russia and Sweden. The analysis of these ties has opened up a new angle to economic co-operation, for example, as seen in the position of such family networks not only in Finnish, but also Swedish and Russian corporations and in the long historical background of the collaboration. This also highlights in a new way the role of women in transferring the cumulative social capital and as silent business partners. The marriage strategies evident in business life clearly had an impact on the economic life. The collaborative networks which transcended generations, national boundaries and structures also uncover, as far as the elites are concerned, serious problems in comparative studies conducted from purely national premises. As the same influential families and persons in effect held several leading positions in society, the line would blur between public and invisible uses of power. The power networks thus aimed to build monopolies to secure their key positions at the helm. This study therefore examines the roles of Lennart Gripenberg senator, business executive, superintendent of the Department of Industry, factory inspector, and founding member of industrial interest groups as part of the reproduction strategies of the elite. The family and other networks of the powerful leaders of society, distinguished by social, economic and cultural capital, provided a solid backdrop for the so-called old elites in their quest for strategies to reproducing power in a changing world. Crucially, it was easier for the elites to gain expertise to steer the modernization process and thereby secure for the next generation a leading position in society, something that they traditionally, too, had had the greatest interest in.

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In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

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This study examines the impact that the Tapiola choir has had on its singers under its four decades. This pedagogical meaning was studied through the former singers of the Tapiola choir, their life choices and their choice of profession. The purpose of this study was to find out how the Tapiola choir has influenced its singers in the long run - their individuality and personality as well as their world view. The target group of this research were all the former members of the Tapiola choir. Altogether 400 individuals have sung in the Tapiola choir. One hundred of them could be reached and 87 of them answered the enquiry. The enquiry was divided in to the following sections: 1) background, 2) years in the choir, 3) hobbies, 4) statements, 5) complete the sentences and 6) with your own words. The main emphasis in this enquiry was on the 50 statements, which were used to study the respondents' attitudes towards the choir as a hobby, the choir's working methods and music education. Through the analysis of this section the researcher was able to generalize the impacts that Tapiola choir has had on its singers. The theoretical base of this study examines the subtext of musicality and musical development as well as music as a hobby. Communal music hobbies and the requirements for a functioning music community were also accentuated. This was connected to my hypothesis of an educative music community. A music community can't be truly educative if its members are unable to collaborate in different situations of practicing and performing. The research results support my hypothesis of the educativeness of a children's choir. The former choristers are socially skilled and self-confident individuals, who are well prepared for the challenges in life. In the Tapiola choir every member is a responsible individual as well as an important part of the whole. The different tasks given in the choir teach the choristers to trust their own skills. Working in a group for its part develops social skills. Many of the respondents also felt that singing in the Tapiola choir was more than a hobby, almost like a way of life. Many of them impress that they would be totally different persons without this period in their life. Children's choir, music education, life choices, social interest group, communal music hobby

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This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.