An Overview of Modelling Bulgarian Wildland Fire Behaviour by Application of a Mathematical Game Method and WRF-Fire Models

This paper presents the main achievements of the author’s PhD dissertation. The work is dedicated to mathematical and semi-empirical approaches applied to the case of Bulgarian wildland fires. After the introductory explanations, short information from every chapter is extracted to cover the main parts of the obtained results. The methods used are described in brief and main outcomes are listed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.1.3, D.2.0, K.5.1.

Cooperation in an HMMS-type supply chain: A management application of cooperative game theory = Kooperáció egy HMMS-típusú ellátási láncban: A kooperatív játékelmélet egy menedzsment alkalmazása

We apply cooperative game theory concepts to analyze a Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon (HMMS) supply chain. The bullwhip effect in a two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) in the framework of the HMMS-model with quadratic cost functions is considered. It is assumed that both firms minimize their relevant costs, and two cases are examined: the supplier and the manufacturer minimize their relevant costs in a decentralized and in a centralized (cooperative) way. The question of how to share the savings of the decreased bullwhip effect in the centralized (cooperative) model is answered by the weighted Shapley value, by a transferable utility cooperative game theory tool, where the weights are for the exogenously given “bargaining powers” of the participants of the supply chain. = A cikkben a kooperatív játékelmélet fogalmait alkalmazzuk egy Holt-Mogigliani-Muth-Simon-típusú ellátási lánc esetében. Az ostorcsapás-hatás elemeit egy beszállító-termelő ellátási láncban ragadjuk meg egy kvadratikus készletezési és termelési költség mellett. Feltételezzük, hogy mindkét vállalat minimalizálja a releváns költségeit. Két működési rendszert hasonlítunk össze: egy hierarchikus döntéshozatali rendszert, amikor először a termelő, majd a beszállító optimalizálja helyzetét, majd egy centralizált (kooperatív) modellt, amikor a vállalatok az együttes költségüket minimalizálják. A kérdés úgy merül fel, hogy a csökkentett ostorcsapás-hatás esetén hogyan osszák meg a részvevők ebben a transzferálható hasznosságú kooperatív játékban a költség megtakarítást, exogén módon adott tárgyalási pozíció mellett.

On Forchheimer's Model of Dominant Firm Price Leadership

We show that in a simple price-setting game with one large firm and many small firms the large firm does not accept the role of the price leader.

Modeling security and cooperation in wireless networks using game theory

This research involves the design, development, and theoretical demonstration of models resulting in integrated misbehavior resolution protocols for ad hoc networked devices. Game theory was used to analyze strategic interaction among independent devices with conflicting interests. Packet forwarding at the routing layer of autonomous ad hoc networks was investigated. Unlike existing reputation based or payment schemes, this model is based on repeated interactions. To enforce cooperation, a community enforcement mechanism was used, whereby selfish nodes that drop packets were punished not only by the victim, but also by all nodes in the network. Then, a stochastic packet forwarding game strategy was introduced. Our solution relaxed the uniform traffic demand that was pervasive in other works. To address the concerns of imperfect private monitoring in resource aware ad hoc networks, a belief-free equilibrium scheme was developed that reduces the impact of noise in cooperation. This scheme also eliminated the need to infer the private history of other nodes. Moreover, it simplified the computation of an optimal strategy. The belief-free approach reduced the node overhead and was easily tractable. Hence it made the system operation feasible. Motivated by the versatile nature of evolutionary game theory, the assumption of a rational node is relaxed, leading to the development of a framework for mitigating routing selfishness and misbehavior in Multi hop networks. This is accomplished by setting nodes to play a fixed strategy rather than independently choosing a rational strategy. A range of simulations was carried out that showed improved cooperation between selfish nodes when compared to older results. Cooperation among ad hoc nodes can also protect a network from malicious attacks. In the absence of a central trusted entity, many security mechanisms and privacy protections require cooperation among ad hoc nodes to protect a network from malicious attacks. Therefore, using game theory and evolutionary game theory, a mathematical framework has been developed that explores trust mechanisms to achieve security in the network. This framework is one of the first steps towards the synthesis of an integrated solution that demonstrates that security solely depends on the initial trust level that nodes have for each other.^

Digital anthropology and educational eGames: learning through behavioural patterns in digital, game-based contexts

The selected publications are focused on the relations between users, eGames and the educational context, and how they interact together, so that both learning and user performance are improved through feedback provision. A key part of this analysis is the identification of behavioural, anthropological patterns, so that users can be clustered based on their actions, and the steps taken in the system (e.g. social network, online community, or virtual campus). In doing so, we can analyse large data sets of information made by a broad user sample,which will provide more accurate statistical reports and readings. Furthermore, this research is focused on how users can be clustered based on individual and group behaviour, so that a personalized support through feedback is provided, and the personal learning process is improved as well as the group interaction. We take inputs from every person and from the group they belong to, cluster the contributions, find behavioural patterns and provide personalized feedback to the individual and the group, based on personal and group findings. And we do all this in the context of educational games integrated in learning communities and learning management systems. To carry out this research we design a set of research questions along the 10-year published work presented in this thesis. We ask if the users can be clustered together based on the inputs provided by them and their groups; if and how these data are useful to improve the learner performance and the group interaction; if and how feedback becomes a useful tool for such pedagogical goal; if and how eGames become a powerful context to deploy the pedagogical methodology and the various research methods and activities that make use of that feedback to encourage learning and interaction; if and how a game design and a learning design must be defined and implemented to achieve these objectives, and to facilitate the productive authoring and integration of eGames in pedagogical contexts and frameworks. We conclude that educational games are a resourceful tool to provide a user experience towards a better personalized learning performance and an enhance group interaction along the way. To do so, eGames, while integrated in an educational context, must follow a specific set of user and technical requirements, so that the playful context supports the pedagogical model underneath. We also conclude that, while playing, users can be clustered based on their personal behaviour and interaction with others, thanks to the pattern identification. Based on this information, a set of recommendations are provided Digital Anthropology and educational eGames 6 /216 to the user and the group in the form of personalized feedback, timely managed for an optimum impact on learning performance and group interaction level. In this research, Digital Anthropology is introduced as a concept at a late stage to provide a backbone across various academic fields including: Social Science, Cognitive Science, Behavioural Science, Educational games and, of course, Technology-enhance learning. Although just recently described as an evolution of traditional anthropology, this approach to digital behaviour and social structure facilitates the understanding amongst fields and a comprehensive view towards a combined approach. This research takes forward the already existing work and published research onusers and eGames for learning, and turns the focus onto the next step — the clustering of users based on their behaviour and offering proper, personalized feedback to the user based on that clustering, rather than just on isolated inputs from every user. Indeed, this pattern recognition in the described context of eGames in educational contexts, and towards the presented aim of personalized counselling to the user and the group through feedback, is something that has not been accomplished before.

Expressing Sentiments in Game Reviews

Opinion mining and sentiment analysis are important research areas of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools and have become viable alternatives for automatically extracting the affective information found in texts. Our aim is to build an NLP model to analyze gamers’ sentiments and opinions expressed in a corpus of 9750 game reviews. A Principal Component Analysis using sentiment analysis features explained 51.2 % of the variance of the reviews and provides an integrated view of the major sentiment and topic related dimensions expressed in game reviews. A Discriminant Function Analysis based on the emerging components classified game reviews into positive, neutral and negative ratings with a 55 % accuracy.

Game Learning Analytics: Learning Analytics for Serious Games

Video games have become one of the largest entertainment industries, and their power to capture the attention of players worldwide soon prompted the idea of using games to improve education. However, these educational games, commonly referred to as serious games, face different challenges when brought into the classroom, ranging from pragmatic issues (e.g. a high development cost) to deeper educational issues, including a lack of understanding of how the students interact with the games and how the learning process actually occurs. This chapter explores the potential of data-driven approaches to improve the practical applicability of serious games. Existing work done by the entertainment and learning industries helps to build a conceptual model of the tasks required to analyze player interactions in serious games (gaming learning analytics or GLA). The chapter also describes the main ongoing initiatives to create reference GLA infrastructures and their connection to new emerging specifications from the educational technology field. Finally, it explores how this data-driven GLA will help in the development of a new generation of more effective educational games and new business models that will support their expansion. This results in additional ethical implications, which are discussed at the end of the chapter.

The RAGE Software Asset Model and Metadata Model

Software assets are key output of the RAGE project and they can be used by applied game developers to enhance the pedagogical and educational value of their games. These software assets cover a broad spectrum of functionalities – from player analytics including emotion detection to intelligent adaptation and social gamification. In order to facilitate integration and interoperability, all of these assets adhere to a common model, which describes their properties through a set of metadata. In this paper the RAGE asset model and asset metadata model is presented, capturing the detail of assets and their potential usage within three distinct dimensions – technological, gaming and pedagogical. The paper highlights key issues and challenges in constructing the RAGE asset and asset metadata model and details the process and design of a flexible metadata editor that facilitates both adaptation and improvement of the asset metadata model.

Partial Cooperation in Location Choice: Salop’s Model with Three Firms

We consider how three firms compete in a Salop location model and how cooperation in location choice by two of these firms affects the outcomes. We con- sider the classical case of linear transportation costs as a two-stage game in which the firms select first a location on a unit circle along which consumers are dispersed evenly, followed by the competitive selection of a price. Standard analysis restricts itself to purely competitive selection of location; instead, we focus on the situation in which two firms collectively decide about location, but price their products competitively after the location choice has been effectuated. We show that such partial coordination of location is beneficial to all firms, since it reduces the number of equilibria significantly and, thereby, the resulting coordination problem. Subsequently, we show that the case of quadratic transportation costs changes the main conclusions only marginally.

The stochastic geometric machine model

This paper introduces the stochastic version of the Geometric Machine Model for the modelling of sequential, alternative, parallel (synchronous) and nondeterministic computations with stochastic numbers stored in a (possibly infinite) shared memory. The programming language L(D! 1), induced by the Coherence Space of Processes D! 1, can be applied to sequential and parallel products in order to provide recursive definitions for such processes, together with a domain-theoretic semantics of the Stochastic Arithmetic. We analyze both the spacial (ordinal) recursion, related to spacial modelling of the stochastic memory, and the temporal (structural) recursion, given by the inclusion relation modelling partial objects in the ordered structure of process construction.

Model Probability in Self-organising Maps

Growing models have been widely used for clustering or topology learning. Traditionally these models work on stationary environments, grow incrementally and adapt their nodes to a given distribution based on global parameters. In this paper, we present an enhanced unsupervised self-organising network for the modelling of visual objects. We first develop a framework for building non-rigid shapes using the growth mechanism of the self-organising maps, and then we define an optimal number of nodes without overfitting or underfitting the network based on the knowledge obtained from information-theoretic considerations. We present experimental results for hands and we quantitatively evaluate the matching capabilities of the proposed method with the topographic product.

An expert model approach to assess the potential of non-wood forest products for forest owners

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Homological and Hodge-theoretic aspects of matroids and polymatroids

In the first part of this thesis, we study the action of the automorphism group of a matroid on the homology space of the co-independent complex. This representation turns out to be isomorphic, up to tensoring with the sign representation, with that on the homology space associated with the lattice of flats. In the case of the cographic matroid of the complete graph, this result has application in algebraic geometry: indeed De Cataldo, Heinloth and Migliorini use this outcome to study the Hitchin fibration. In the second part, on the other hand, we use ideas from algebraic geometry to prove a purely combinatorial result. We construct a Leray model for a discrete polymatroid with arbitrary building set and we prove a generalized Goresky-MacPherson formula. The first row of the model is the Chow ring of the polymatroid; we prove Poincaré duality, Hard-Lefschetz theorem and Hodge-Riemann relations for the Chow ring.

Integrated Proteomics Identified Up-regulated Focal Adhesion-mediated Proteins In Human Squamous Cell Carcinoma In An Orthotopic Murine Model.

Understanding the molecular mechanisms of oral carcinogenesis will yield important advances in diagnostics, prognostics, effective treatment, and outcome of oral cancer. Hence, in this study we have investigated the proteomic and peptidomic profiles by combining an orthotopic murine model of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), mass spectrometry-based proteomics and biological network analysis. Our results indicated the up-regulation of proteins involved in actin cytoskeleton organization and cell-cell junction assembly events and their expression was validated in human OSCC tissues. In addition, the functional relevance of talin-1 in OSCC adhesion, migration and invasion was demonstrated. Taken together, this study identified specific processes deregulated in oral cancer and provided novel refined OSCC-targeting molecules.

Electronic And Structural Study Of Pt-modified Au Vicinal Surfaces: A Model System For Pt-au Catalysts.

Two single crystalline surfaces of Au vicinal to the (111) plane were modified with Pt and studied using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS) in ultra-high vacuum environment. The vicinal surfaces studied are Au(332) and Au(887) and different Pt coverage (θPt) were deposited on each surface. From STM images we determine that Pt deposits on both surfaces as nanoislands with heights ranging from 1 ML to 3 ML depending on θPt. On both surfaces the early growth of Pt ad-islands occurs at the lower part of the step edge, with Pt ad-atoms being incorporated into the steps in some cases. XPS results indicate that partial alloying of Pt occurs at the interface at room temperature and at all coverage, as suggested by the negative chemical shift of Pt 4f core line, indicating an upward shift of the d-band center of the alloyed Pt. Also, the existence of a segregated Pt phase especially at higher coverage is detected by XPS. Sample annealing indicates that the temperature rise promotes a further incorporation of Pt atoms into the Au substrate as supported by STM and XPS results. Additionally, the catalytic activity of different PtAu systems reported in the literature for some electrochemical reactions is discussed considering our findings.