Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Covariance structure in the skull of Catarrhini: a case of pattern stasis and magnitude evolution

The study of the genetic variance/covariance matrix (G-matrix) is a recent and fruitful approach in evolutionary biology, providing a window of investigating for the evolution of complex characters. Although G-matrix studies were originally conducted for microevolutionary timescales, they could be extrapolated to macroevolution as long as the G-matrix remains relatively constant, or proportional, along the period of interest. A promising approach to investigating the constancy of G-matrices is to compare their phenotypic counterparts (P-matrices) in a large group of related species; if significant similarity is found among several taxa, it is very likely that the underlying G-matrices are also equivalent. Here we study the similarity of covariance and correlation structure in a broad sample of Old World monkeys and apes (Catarrhini). We made phylogenetically structured comparisons of correlation and covariance matrices derived from 39 skull traits, ranging from between species to the superfamily level. We also compared the overall magnitude of integration between skull traits (r(2)) for all Catarrhim genera. Our results show that P-matrices were not strictly constant among catarrhines, but the amount of divergence observed among taxa was generally low. There was significant and positive correlation between the amount of divergence in correlation and covariance patterns among the 30 genera and their phylogenetic distances derived from a recently proposed phylogenetic hypothesis. Our data demonstrate that the P-matrices remained relatively similar along the evolutionary history of catarrhines, and comparisons with the G-matrix available for a New World monkey genus (Saguinus) suggests that the same holds for all anthropoids. The magnitude of integration, in contrast, varied considerably among genera, indicating that evolution of the magnitude, rather than the pattern of inter-trait correlations, might have played an important role in the diversification of the catarrhine skull. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Os impactos dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos na evolução da balança comercial brasileira no período pós-real

The purpose of the present study is to discuss the eventual relationship between foreign direct investment in Brazil and trade balance, considering the period after the beginning of "Plano Real" on 1994, which presented a new currency regime and a new profile of Brazilian macroeconomy. It is important to state that there is a controversial debate around the question, since those investments are seen as positive to receiving countries by some authors and negative by other ones. Those who are favorable, argue that the recent attitude assumed by a lot of companies towards internalization is changing the modus operandi in some markets, providing a much more competitive framework. It is also remarkable - they also mention - the potential advantages brought by these new strategies. On the other hand, some authors defend that it increases the exposure of the country that receives such resources, since the subsidiaries of those companies operate under marketing strategies of profit maximization, considered the competitive environment they face. We will go over these opinions troughout the study, trying also to capture the reasons that usually motivate foreign companies to look for new markets and branches and also the effects on receiving country's Balance of Payments. Besides that point, the approach presented will try to answer if the increase of foreign capital stock in Brazil helps to explain some positive response from the country's trade balance, and more, on Balance of Payments. It is also important to mention that the considered period is extremely representative, mainly when considered the huge amounts involved and the increasing liberalization verified in brazilian's external policies since 1990. There is special concern, troughout the study, to define the pattern of such investments, and more, the impacts that those resources brought to public budget. The present study will focus on official data, published by Central Bank of Brazil, mainly those ones regarding Census of Foreign Capitals, as well as the referable to the evolution of Balance of Payments. Finally, based on statistical procedures, it will be provided multiple regressions on available data that will help the reader to capture the effects of some selected variables, which will bring a much more oriented analysis to the discussion.

Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Os determinantes macroeconômicos do spread bancário para pessoas físicas e jurídicas no Brasil: uma análise do período pós plano real

Este trabalho tem por objetivo a análise empírica dos fatores macroeconômicos que determinaram os níveis de spread bancário para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas no Brasil no período pós-adoção do Plano Real até dezembro de 2012. Para isso foi utilizado um modelo de auto regressão vetorial com variáveis representativas de fatores macroeconômicos. O Trabalho expõe ainda algumas características da indústria bancária no Brasil e as particularidades do mercado de crédito praticado para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas. Os resultados deste trabalho evidenciaram que: (i) a taxa básica de juros foi o principal fator macroeconômico de influência do spread praticado tanto para pessoas físicas quanto para pessoas jurídicas; (ii) Enquanto um impacto no nível de inflação ocasionou maior influência no spread para pessoas físicas, um impacto na volatilidade da taxa básica de juros influenciou positivamente o spread para pessoas jurídicas.

Structural damage identification and location using grammian matrices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Adjuvant therapy with GnRH agonists/tamoxifen in breast cancer should be a good council for patients with hormone receptor-positive tumours and wish to preserve fertility

Infertility represents one of the main long-term consequences of the chemotherapy used for the adjuvant treatment of breast cancer. Approximately 60-65% of breast cancers express the nuclear hormone receptor in premenopausal women. Adjuvant endocrine therapy is an integral component of care for patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) tumours. The GnRH agonist (GnRHa) alone or in combination with tamoxifen produces results at least similar to those obtained with the different chemotherapy protocols in patients with HR+ breast cancer with respect to recurrence-free survival and overall survival. It is time to indicate adjuvant therapy with GnRHa associated with tamoxifen for patients with breast cancer (HR+ tumours) if they want to preserve their reproductive function. The evaluation of ovarian reserve tests: follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), inhibin B, antral follicle count (AFC) and ovarian volume 6 months, and 1 year after the end of therapy with GnRHa/tamoxifen must be realised. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival should be analysed. The major implication of this hypothesis will be to avoid adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with breast cancer (HR+ tumours) that request fertility preservation. It is expected that ovarian function should not be altered in almost all cases and subsequent pregnancy a real possibility. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Almost strict total positivity and a class of Hurwitz polynomials

We establish sufficient conditions for a matrix to be almost totally positive, thus extending a result of Craven and Csordas who proved that the corresponding conditions guarantee that a matrix is strictly totally positive. Then we apply our main result in order to obtain a new criteria for a real algebraic polynomial to be a Hurwitz one. The properties of the corresponding extremal Hurwitz polynomials are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conversion of web texts into Braille characters for real time reading through arrays of electromechanical actuators

This paper describes an electronic device conceived to convert common web texts into sequences of corresponding Braille signals, which are immediately reproduced onto an array ( keyboard) of electromechanical actuators. These actuators are reconfigurable in real time, displaying the Braille characters as matrices of points composed by small stems which can be lowered or raised according to the Braille code. The device, together with its conversion software package, can provide direct access to web texts in any personal computer, thus avoiding the use of complicated Braille printers.

Polymerase chain reaction and real-time PCR for diagnosing of Leishmania infantum chagasi in dogs

A importância do cão como reservatório de L. infantum chagasi no meio urbano tem estimulado a realização de inúmeros trabalhos de avaliação de técnicas de diagnóstico, uma vez que este procedimento, quando realizado corretamente, torna-se um importante passo na prevenção da doença em humanos. Dentre os métodos de diagnóstico, as técnicas moleculares têm adquirido destaque. Objetivou-se neste trabalho verificar o desempenho da Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase (PCR) e da PCR em tempo real (qPCR) para diagnóstico da Leishmaniose Visceral Canina (LVC) utilizando diferentes amostras biológicas. Para tanto foram utilizados 35 cães provenientes de uma área endêmica para LVC, onde foram utilizados para o diagnóstico molecular, aspirado de medula óssea, fragmentos de linfonodo e baço. Neste estudo a qPCR foi capaz de detectar um maior número de animais positivos quando comparada com a PCR. Já entre as diferentes amostras biológicas utilizadas não foi observada diferença significativa na detecção de DNA de L. infantumchagasi por meio da PCR e qPCR. Mesmo assim, considerando a facilidade de obtenção, o linfonodo pode ser considerada como a melhor amostra para diagnóstico molecular da infecção por L. infantum chagasi.

Progress on holographic techniques to measure real-time phase and amplitude gratings in photosensitive materials

In this paper we present and demonstrate a technique that allows simultaneous and independent measurement of small changes in the refractive index and the absorption coefficient produced in photosensitive materials during holographic exposure. The technique is based on the synchronous detection of two-wave mixing signals in both directions of the transmitted interfering beams. By processing both signals it is possible to separate the diffraction contributions of the refractive index from the absorption coefficient and simultaneously stabilize the incident fringe pattern. The demonstration of this technique is undertaken by following the temporal evolution of the phase and amplitude modulations in photoresist films. To check the ability of the technique to perform numeric evaluations, for a positive photoresist the changes in the optical constants were measured and compared with those obtained using independent methods.

Predicting beef carcass retail products of Mediterranean buffaloes by real-time ultrasound measures

Twenty eight Mediterranean buffaloes bulls were scanned with real-time ultrasound (RTU), slaughtered, and fabricated into retail cuts to determine the potential for ultrasound measures to predict carcass retail yield. Ultrasound measures of fat thickness, ribeye area and rump fat thickness were recorded three to five days prior to slaughter. Carcass measurements were taken, and one side of each carcass was fabricated into retail cuts. Stepwise regression analysis was used to compare possible models for prediction of either kilograms or percent retail product from carcass mesaurements and ultrasound measures. Results indicate that possible prediction models for percent or kilograms of retail products using RTU measures were similar in their predictive power and accuracy when compared to models derived from carcass measurements. Both fat thickness and ribeye area were over-predicted when measured ultrasonically compared to measurements taken on the carcass in the cooler. The mean absolute differences for both traits are larger than the mean differences, indicating that some images were interpreted to be larger and some smaller than actual carcass measurements. Ultrasound measurements of REA and FT had positive correlations with carcass measures of the same traits (r=.96 for REA and r=.99 for FT). Standard errors of prediction currently are being used as the standard to certify ultrasound technicians for accuracy. Regression equations using live weight (LW), rib eye area (REAU) and subcutaneous fat thickness (FTU) between 12(th) and 13 (th) ribs and also over the biceps femoris muscle (FTP8) by ultrasound explained 95% of the variation in the hot carcass weight when measure immediately before slaughter.

Modal representation of three-phase lines applying two transformation matrices: Evaluation of its eigenvectors

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative representation in time domain of a non-transposed three-phase transmission line decomposed in its exact modes by using two transformation matrices. The first matrix is Clarke's matrix that is real, frequency independent, easily represented in computational transient programs (EMTP) and separates the line into Quasi-modes alpha, beta and zero. After that, Quasi-modes a and zero are decomposed into their exact modes by using a modal transformation matrix whose elements can be synthesized in time domain through standard curve-fitting techniques. The main advantage of this alternative representation is to reduce the processing time because a frequency dependent modal transformation matrix of a three-phase line has nine elements to be represented in time domain while a modal transformation matrix of a two-phase line has only four elements. This paper shows modal decomposition process and eigenvectors of a nontransposed three-phase line with a vertical symmetry plane whose nominal voltage is 440 kV and line length is 500 km.

Real-time PCR assay targeting the actin gene for the detection of Cryptosporidium parvum in calf fecal samples

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

SZEGO and PARA-ORTHOGONAL POLYNOMIALS on THE REAL LINE: ZEROS and CANONICAL SPECTRAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)