Entwicklung und Anwendung einer Kraftwerks- und Speichereinsatzoptimierung für die Untersuchung von Energieversorgungsszenarien mit hohem Anteil erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

In dieser Arbeit wurde ein gemischt-ganzzahliges lineares Einsatzoptimierungsmodell für Kraftwerke und Speicher aufgebaut und für die Untersuchung der Energieversorgung Deutschlands im Jahre 2050 gemäß den Leitstudie-Szenarien 2050 A und 2050 C ([Nitsch und Andere, 2012]) verwendet, in denen erneuerbare Energien einen Anteil von über 85 % an der Stromerzeugung haben und die Wind- und Solarenergie starke Schwankungen der durch steuerbare Kraftwerke und Speicher zu deckenden residualen Stromnachfrage (Residuallast) verursachen. In Szenario 2050 A sind 67 TWh Wasserstoff, die elektrolytisch aus erneuerbarem Strom zu erzeugen sind, für den Verkehr vorgesehen. In Szenario 2050 C ist kein Wasserstoff für den Verkehr vorgesehen und die effizientere Elektromobilität hat einen Anteil von 100% am Individualverkehr. Daher wird weniger erneuerbarer Strom zur Erreichung desselben erneuerbaren Anteils im Verkehrssektor benötigt. Da desweiteren Elektrofahrzeuge Lastmanagementpotentiale bieten, weisen die Residuallasten der Szenarien eine unterschiedliche zeitliche Charakteristik und Jahressumme auf. Der Schwerpunkt der Betrachtung lag auf der Ermittlung der Auslastung und Fahrweise des in den Szenarien unterstellten ’Kraftwerks’-parks bestehend aus Kraftwerken zur reinen Stromerzeugung, Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungskraftwerken, die mit Wärmespeichern, elektrischen Heizstäben und Gas-Backupkesseln ausgestattet sind, Stromspeichern und Wärmepumpen, die durch Wärmespeicher zum Lastmanagment eingesetzt werden können. Der Fahrplan dieser Komponenten wurde auf minimale variable Gesamtkosten der Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung über einen Planungshorizont von jeweils vier Tagen hin optimiert. Das Optimierungsproblem wurde mit dem linearen Branch-and-Cut-Solver der software CPLEX gelöst. Mittels sogenannter rollierender Planung wurde durch Zusammensetzen der Planungsergebnisse für überlappende Planungsperioden der Kraftwerks- und Speichereinsatz für die kompletten Szenariojahre erhalten. Es wurde gezeigt, dass der KWK-Anteil an der Wärmelastdeckung gering ist. Dies wurde begründet durch die zeitliche Struktur der Stromresiduallast, die wärmeseitige Dimensionierung der Anlagen und die Tatsache, dass nur eine kurzfristige Speicherung von Wärme vorgesehen war. Die wärmeseitige Dimensionierung der KWK stellte eine Begrenzung des Deckungsanteils dar, da im Winter bei hoher Stromresiduallast nur wenig freie Leistung zur Beladung der Speicher zur Verfügung stand. In den Berechnungen für das Szenario 2050 A und C lag der mittlere Deckungsanteil der KWK an der Wärmenachfrage von ca. 100 TWh_th bei 40 bzw. 60 %, obwohl die Auslegung der KWK einen theoretischen Anteil von über 97 % an der Wärmelastdeckung erlaubt hätte, gäbe es die Beschränkungen durch die Stromseite nicht. Desweiteren wurde die CO2-Vermeidungswirkung der KWK-Wärmespeicher und des Lastmanagements mit Wärmepumpen untersucht. In Szenario 2050 A ergab sich keine signifikante CO2-Vermeidungswirkung der KWK-Wärmespeicher, in Szenario 2050 C hingegen ergab sich eine geringe aber signifikante CO2-Einsparung in Höhe von 1,6 % der Gesamtemissionen der Stromerzeugung und KWK-gebundenen Wärmeversorgung. Das Lastmanagement mit Wärmepumpen vermied Emissionen von 110 Tausend Tonnen CO2 (0,4 % der Gesamtemissionen) in Szenario A und 213 Tausend Tonnen in Szenario C (0,8 % der Gesamtemissionen). Es wurden darüber hinaus Betrachtungen zur Konkurrenz zwischen solarthermischer Nahwärme und KWK bei Einspeisung in dieselben Wärmenetze vorgenommen. Eine weitere Einschränkung der KWK-Erzeugung durch den Einspeisevorrang der Solarthermie wurde festgestellt. Ferner wurde eine untere Grenze von 6,5 bzw. 8,8 TWh_th für die in den Szenarien mindestens benötigte Wasserstoff-Speicherkapazität ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit legen nahe, das technisch-ökonomische Potential von Langzeitwärmespeichern für eine bessere Integration von KWK ins System zu ermitteln bzw. generell nach geeigneteren Wärmesektorszenarien zu suchen, da deutlich wurde, dass für die öffentliche Wärmeversorgung die KWK in Kombination mit Kurzzeitwärmespeicherung, Gaskesseln und elektrischen Heizern keine sehr effektive CO2 -Reduktion in den Szenarien erreicht. Es sollte dabei z.B. untersucht werden, ob ein multivalentes System aus KWK, Wärmespeichern und Wärmepumpen eine ökonomisch darstellbare Alternative sein könnte und im Anschluss eine Betrachtung der optimalen Anteile von KWK, Wärmepumpen und Solarthermie im Wärmemarkt vorgenommen werden.

El modelo integral y su aplicación en terapia

La presente monografía es una revisión de la literatura frente a los postulados fundamentales del modelo integral propuesto por Ken Wilber y la aplicación de dicho modelo a la psicoterapia. Se presentan cada una de los elementos que sostienen esta meta-perspectiva tales como cuadrantes, niveles, líneas, y estados, y la forma en que cada uno de ellos se relaciona con la psicoterapia integral. Se abordan a continuación temas como los diferentes niveles de terapia, las etapas del desarrollo de la identidad, las patologías típicas en cada una de ellas y las posibles intervenciones para manejarlas, el rol que posee el terapeuta y algunos otros campos de aplicación del modelo integral a terapias grupales y al asesoramiento.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

C. Wright Mils revisited: Society and Power

C. Wright Mills has been forgotten by sociological theories however there is no doubt about how much he contributed to the field of Epistemology. He successfully participated in the American Sociology of Knowledge and, at the same time, he  upheld the tradition of the Conflict Theory, including the sociological dimension into one of the most questioned political subjects of his period. Undoubtedly,  Wright Mills was morally committed to the value of reason and freedom. His central issue was to analyse the real possibilities for a particular individual within  a particular social order to become a free man capable of reasoning. He wondered how someone could be able to transcend his daily nature through reason and  experience and to act accordingly to his power. The power and political processes were constant in his works, since he claimed that any political process was a  struggle for power and prestige, for authoritative positions, both within each nation  and among the different states. On the other hand, he  bserved that the social  structure in the United States of America was not completely democratic, since the  course of action depended on the decision of a small group of wealthy, powerful individuals. These concentrating spaces of power amongst some economic, military  and political corporations were supported by their underlying ideology, a fact that became clearer when referring to international affairs. Nowadays, in a world of  structural antagonisms, wars and rebellions, the need for looking at the work  of intellectuals like Mills re-emerges. Mills showed us a way in which a complex entity as power can be understood, and, at the same time, the need to consider the  course of history, its mechanics and process.

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Optimización del sistema de transporte en el colegio The English School

La optimización de sistemas y modelos se ha convertido en uno de los factores más importantes a la hora de buscar la mayor eficiencia de un proceso. Este concepto no es ajeno al transporte escolar, ambiente que cambia constantemente al ritmo de las necesidades de sus clientes, y que responde ante una fuerte responsabilidad frente a sus usuarios, los niños que hacen uso del servicio, en cuanto al cumplimiento de tiempos y seguridad, mientras busca constantemente la reducción de costos. Este proyecto expone las problemáticas presentadas en The English School en esta área y propone un modelo de optimización simple que permitirá notables mejoras en términos de tiempos y costos, de tal forma que genere beneficios para la institución en términos financieros y de satisfacción al cliente. Por medio de la implementación de este modelo será posible identificar errores comunes del proceso, se identificarán soluciones prácticas de fácil aplicación en el manejo del transporte y se presentarán los resultados obtenidos en la muestra utilizada para desarrollar el proyecto.

Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Refashioning local government and inner-city regeneration: The Salford experience

This paper explores the role of local government in urban regeneration in England. The first part describes local-central government relations during recent decades. It concludes that 'actually occurring' regeneration fuses top-down and bottom-up priorities and preferences, as well as path dependencies created by past decisions and local relations. The second part illustrates this contention by examining the regeneration of inner-city Salford over a 25-year period. It describes Salford City Council's approach in achieving the redevelopment of the former Salford Docks and how this created the confidence for the council to embark on further regeneration projects. Yet the top-down decision-making model has failed to satisfy local expectations, creating apathy which threatens the Labour government's desire for active citizens in regeneration projects.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Assessing the impact of the 'Decoupling' reform of the common agricultural policy on Irish farmers' off-farm labour market participation decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the 'decoupling' reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision-making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers' time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that 'decoupling' of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off-farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off-farm work will increase.

A multicriteria lifespan energy efficiency approach to intelligent building assessment

This paper presents a multicriteria decision-making model for lifespan energy efficiency assessment of intelligent buildings (IBs). The decision-making model called IBAssessor is developed using an analytic network process (ANP) method and a set of lifespan performance indicators for IBs selected by a new quantitative approach called energy-time consumption index (ETI). In order to improve the quality of decision-making, the authors of this paper make use of previous research achievements including a lifespan sustainable business model, the Asian IB Index, and a number of relevant publications. Practitioners can use the IBAssessor ANP model at different stages of an IB lifespan for either engineering or business oriented assessments. Finally, this paper presents an experimental case study to demonstrate how to use IBAssessor ANP model to solve real-world design tasks.

An analytic knowledge network process for construction entrepreneurship education

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative multicriteria decision-making approach to knowledge management in construction entrepreneurship education by means of an analytic knowledge network process (KANP) Design/methodology/approach- The KANP approach in the study integrates a standard industrial classification with the analytic network process (ANP). For the construction entrepreneurship education, a decision-making model named KANP.CEEM is built to apply the KANP method in the evaluation of teaching cases to facilitate the case method, which is widely adopted in entrepreneurship education at business schools. Findings- The study finds that there are eight clusters and 178 nodes in the KANP.CEEM model, and experimental research on the evaluation of teaching cases discloses that the KANP method is effective in conducting knowledge management to the entrepreneurship education. Research limitations/implications- As an experimental research, this paper ignores the concordance between a selected standard classification and others, which perhaps limits the usefulness of KANP.CEEM model elsewhere. Practical implications- As the KANP.CEEM model is built based on the standard classification codes and the embedded ANP, it is thus expected that the model has a wide potential in evaluating knowledge-based teaching materials for any education purpose with a background from the construction industry, and can be used by both faculty and students. Originality/value- This paper fulfils a knowledge management need and offers a practical tool for an academic starting out on the development of knowledge-based teaching cases and other teaching materials or for a student going through the case studies and other learning materials.

India’s disappearing common lands: fuzzy boundaries, encroachment, and evolving property rights

Opportunistic land encroachment occurs in many low-income countries, gradually yet pervasively, until discrete areas of common land disappear. This paper, motivated by field observations in Karnataka, India, demonstrates that such an evolution of property rights from common to private may be efficient when the boundaries between common and private land are poorly defined, or ‘‘fuzzy.’’ Using a multi-period optimization model, and introducing the concept of stock and flow enforcement, I show how effectiveness of enforcement effort, whether encroachment is reversible, and punitive fines, influence whether an area of common land is fully defined and protected or gradually or rapidly encroached.

The influence of markets and policy on spatial patterns of non-timber forest product extraction

When villagers extract resources, such as fuelwood, fodder, or medicinal plants from forests, their decisions over where and how much to extract are influenced by market conditions, their particular opportunity costs of time, minimum consumption needs, and access to markets. This paper develops an optimization model of villagers’ extraction behavior that clarifies how, and under what conditions, policies that create incentives such as improved returns to extraction in a buffer zone might be used instead of adversarial enforcement efforts to protect a forest’s pristine ‘‘inner core.’’

Researching farmer behaviour in climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture: lessons learned from five case studies

Understanding farmer behaviour is needed for local agricultural systems to produce food sustainably while facing multiple pressures. We synthesize existing literature to identify three fundamental questions that correspond to three distinct areas of knowledge necessary to understand farmer behaviour: 1) decision-making model; 2) cross-scale and cross-level pressures; and 3) temporal dynamics. We use this framework to compare five interdisciplinary case studies of agricultural systems in distinct geographical contexts across the globe. We find that these three areas of knowledge are important to understanding farmer behaviour, and can be used to guide the interdisciplinary design and interpretation of studies in the future. Most importantly, we find that these three areas need to be addressed simultaneously in order to understand farmer behaviour. We also identify three methodological challenges hindering this understanding: the suitability of theoretical frameworks, the trade-offs among methods and the limited timeframe of typical research projects. We propose that a triangulation research strategy that makes use of mixed methods, or collaborations between researchers across mixed disciplines, can be used to successfully address all three areas simultaneously and show how this has been achieved in the case studies. The framework facilitates interdisciplinary research on farmer behaviour by opening up spaces of structured dialogue on assumptions, research questions and methods employed in investigation.