880 resultados para Predictive Value Of Tests
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BACKGROUND: Pharmacological interruption of the renin-angiotensin system focuses on optimization of blockade. As a measure of intrarenal renin activity, we have examined renal plasma flow (RPF) responses in a standardized protocol. Compared with responses with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition (rise in RPF approximately 95 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)), greater renal vasodilation with angiotensin receptor blockers (approximately 145 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) suggested more effective blockade. We predicted that blockade with the direct oral renin inhibitor aliskiren would produce renal vascular responses exceeding those induced by angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty healthy normotensive subjects were studied on a low-sodium (10 mmol/d) diet, receiving separate escalating doses of aliskiren. Six additional subjects received captopril 25 mg as a low-sodium comparison and also received aliskiren on a high-sodium (200 mmol/d) diet. RPF was measured by clearance of para-aminohippurate. Aliskiren induced a remarkable dose-related renal vasodilation in low-sodium balance. The RPF response was maximal at the 600-mg dose (197+/-27 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) and exceeded responses to captopril (92+/-20 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2); P<0.01). Furthermore, significant residual vasodilation was observed 48 hours after each dose (P<0.01). The RPF response on a high-sodium diet was also higher than expected (47+/-17 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). Plasma renin activity and angiotensin levels were reduced in a dose-related manner. As another functional index of the effect of aliskiren, we found significant natriuresis on both diets. CONCLUSIONS: Renal vasodilation in healthy people with the potent renin inhibitor aliskiren exceeded responses seen previously with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. The effects were longer lasting and were associated with significant natriuresis. These results indicate that aliskiren may provide more complete and thus more effective blockade of the renin-angiotensin system.
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BACKGROUND: Both systolic and diastolic dysfunction have been observed in patients with anterolateral myocardial infarction. Diastolic dysfunction is related to disturbances in relaxation and diastolic filling. OBJECTIVE: To analyse cardiac rotation, regional shortening and diastolic relaxation in patients with anterolateral infarction. METHODS: Cardiac rotation and relaxation in controls and patients with chronic anterolateral infarction were assessed by myocardial tagging. Myocardial tagging is based on magnetic resonance imaging and allows us to label specific myocardial regions for imaging cardiac motion (rotation, translation and radial displacement). A rectangular grid was placed on the myocardium (basal, equatorial and apical short-axis plane) of each of 18 patients with chronic anterolateral infarction and 13 controls. Cardiac rotation, change in area and shortening of circumference were determined in each case. RESULTS: The left ventricle in controls performs a systolic wringing motion with a clockwise rotation at the base and a counterclockwise rotation at the apex when viewed from the apex. During relaxation a rotational motion in the opposite direction (namely untwisting) can be observed. In patients with anterolateral infarction, there is less systolic rotation at the apex and diastolic untwisting is delayed and prolonged in comparison with controls. In the presence of a left ventricular aneurysm (n = 4) apical rotation is completely lost. There is less shortening of circumference in infarcted and remote regions. CONCLUSIONS: The wringing motion of the myocardium might be an important mechanism involved in maintaining normal cardiac function with minimal expenditure of energy. This mechanism no longer operates in patients with left ventricular aneurysms and operates significantly less than normal in those with anterolateral hypokinaesia. Diastolic untwisting is significantly delayed and prolonged in patients with anterolateral infarction, which could explain the occurrence of diastolic dysfunction in these patients.
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To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.
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In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU-C assays have a significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.
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OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.
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BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.
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INTRODUCTION Although several parameters have been proposed to predict the hemodynamic response to fluid expansion in critically ill patients, most of them are invasive or require the use of special monitoring devices. The aim of this study is to determine whether noninvasive evaluation of respiratory variation of brachial artery peak velocity flow measured using Doppler ultrasound could predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. METHODS We conducted a prospective clinical research in a 17-bed multidisciplinary ICU and included 38 mechanically ventilated patients for whom fluid administration was planned due to the presence of acute circulatory failure. Volume expansion (VE) was performed with 500 mL of a synthetic colloid. Patients were classified as responders if stroke volume index (SVi) increased >or= 15% after VE. The respiratory variation in Vpeakbrach (DeltaVpeakbrach) was calculated as the difference between maximum and minimum values of Vpeakbrach over a single respiratory cycle, divided by the mean of the two values and expressed as a percentage. Radial arterial pressure variation (DeltaPPrad) and stroke volume variation measured using the FloTrac/Vigileo system (DeltaSVVigileo), were also calculated. RESULTS VE increased SVi by >or= 15% in 19 patients (responders). At baseline, DeltaVpeakbrach, DeltaPPrad and DeltaSVVigileo were significantly higher in responder than nonresponder patients [14 vs 8%; 18 vs. 5%; 13 vs 8%; P < 0.0001, respectively). A DeltaVpeakbrach value >10% predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 95%. A DeltaPPrad value >10% and a DeltaSVVigileo >11% predicted volume responsiveness with a sensitivity of 95% and 79%, and a specificity of 95% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Respiratory variations in brachial artery peak velocity could be a feasible tool for the noninvasive assessment of fluid responsiveness in patients with mechanical ventilatory support and acute circulatory failure. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00890071.
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INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.
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Also known as ferroxidase ceruloplasmin, belongs to the family of inflammation-sensitive proteins, and its main function to transport copper in the blood. Although, in addition to this transport function, at present, there are numerous studies that have attempted to use the determination of serum concentrations as a predictive indicator of cardiovascular risk in patients who are overweight or obese. The results of this study confirm the existence of a significant correlation between serum ceruloplasmin and nutritional status of the subjects, which means that for the population of students assessed, serum levels of this protein are an important predictor the risk of cardiovascular disease.
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BACKGROUND Clinical predictors for fatal pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with venous thromboembolism have never been studied. METHODS AND RESULTS Using data from the international prospective Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbolica venosa (RIETE) registry about patients with objectively confirmed symptomatic acute venous thromboembolism, we determined independent predictive factors for fatal PE. Between March 2001 and July 2006, 15520 consecutive patients (mean age+/-SD, 66.3+/-16.9 years; 49.7% men) with acute venous thromboembolism were included. Symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE was observed in 58.0% (n=9008) of patients, symptomatic nonmassive PE in 40.4% (n=6264), and symptomatic massive PE in 1.6% (n=248). At 3 months, the cumulative rates of overall mortality and fatal PE were 8.65% and 1.68%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, patients with symptomatic nonmassive PE at presentation exhibited a 5.42-fold higher risk of fatal PE compared with patients with deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE (P<0.001). The risk of fatal PE was multiplied by 17.5 in patients presenting with a symptomatic massive PE. Other clinical factors independently associated with an increased risk of fatal PE were immobilization for neurological disease, age >75 years, and cancer. CONCLUSIONS PE remains a potentially fatal disease. The clinical predictors identified in the present study should be included in any clinical risk stratification scheme to optimally adapt the treatment of PE to the risk of the fatal outcome.
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OBJECTIVE: Antitumor necrosis factor a agents have significantly improved the management of Crohn's disease (CD), but not all patients benefit from this therapy. We used data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study and predefined appropriateness criteria to examine the appropriateness of use of infliximab (IFX) in CD patients. METHODS: EPACT II (European Panel on the Appropriateness of CD Therapy, 2007; www.epact.ch) appropriateness criteria have been developed using a formal explicit panel process combining evidence from the published literature and expert opinion. Questionnaires relating to EPACT II criteria were used at enrollment and follow-up of all Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study patients. A step-by-step analysis of all possible indications for IFX therapy in a given patient allowed identification of the most appropriate indication and final classification in a single appropriateness category (appropriate, uncertain, inappropriate). RESULTS: Eight hundred and twenty-one CD patients were prospectively enrolled between November 2006 and March 2009. IFX was administered to 146 patients (18%) at enrollment and was most frequently used for complex fistulizing disease and for the maintenance of remission induced by biological therapy. IFX therapy was considered appropriate in 44%, uncertain in 44%, and inappropriate in 10% of patients. CONCLUSION: In this cohort, 9 out of 10 indications for IFX therapy were clinically generally acceptable (appropriate or uncertain) according to EPACT II criteria. Uncertain indications resulted mainly from the current more liberal use of IFX in clinical practice as compared with the EPACT II criteria.
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Recurrent breast cancer occurring after the initial treatment is associated with poor outcome. A bimodal relapse pattern after surgery for primary tumor has been described with peaks of early and late recurrence occurring at about 2 and 5 years, respectively. Although several clinical and pathological features have been used to discriminate between low- and high-risk patients, the identification of molecular biomarkers with prognostic value remains an unmet need in the current management of breast cancer. Using microarray-based technology, we have performed a microRNA expression analysis in 71 primary breast tumors from patients that either remained disease-free at 5 years post-surgery (group A) or developed early (group B) or late (group C) recurrence. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of microRNA expression data segregated tumors in two groups, mainly corresponding to patients with early recurrence and those with no recurrence. Microarray data analysis and RT-qPCR validation led to the identification of a set of 5 microRNAs (the 5-miRNA signature) differentially expressed between these two groups: miR-149, miR-10a, miR-20b, miR-30a-3p and miR-342-5p. All five microRNAs were down-regulated in tumors from patients with early recurrence. We show here that the 5-miRNA signature defines a high-risk group of patients with shorter relapse-free survival and has predictive value to discriminate non-relapsing versus early-relapsing patients (AUC = 0.993, p-value<0.05). Network analysis based on miRNA-target interactions curated by public databases suggests that down-regulation of the 5-miRNA signature in the subset of early-relapsing tumors would result in an overall increased proliferative and angiogenic capacity. In summary, we have identified a set of recurrence-related microRNAs with potential prognostic value to identify patients who will likely develop metastasis early after primary breast surgery.
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Introduct ion The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) indicates that a lactate (LT) concentration greater than 4ımmol/l indicates early resuscitation bundles. However, several recent studies have suggested that LT values lower than 4ımmol/l may be a prognostic marker of adverse outcome. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and analytical prognostic parameters in severe sepsis (SS) or septic shock (ShS) according to quartiles of blood LT concentration. Methods A cohort study was designed in a polyvalent ICU. We studied demographic, clinical and analytical parameters in 148 critically ill adults, within 24ıhours from SS or ShS onset according to SSC criteria. We tested for diı erences in baseline characteristics by lactate interval using a KruskalıWallis test for continuous data or a chi-square test for categorical data and reported the median and interquartile ranges; SPSS version 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results We analyzed 148 consecutive episodes of SS (16%) or ShS (84%). The median age was 64 (interquartile range, 48.7 to 71)ıyears; male: 60%. The main sources of infection were respiratory tract 38% and intra-abdomen 45%; 70.7% had medical pathology. Mortality at 28ıdays was 22.7%. Quartiles of blood LT concentration were quartile 1 (Q1): 1.87ımmol/l or less, quartile 2 (Q2): 1.88 to 2.69ımmol/l, quartile 3 (Q3): 2.7 to 4.06ımmol/l, and quartile 4 (Q4): 4.07ımmol/l or greater (Tableı1). The median LT concentrations of each quartile were 1.43 (Q1), 2.2 (Q2), 3.34 (Q3), and 5.1 (Q4) mmol/l (Pı<0.001). The diı erences between these quartiles were that the patients in Q1 had signiı cantly lower APACHE II scores (Pı=ı0.04), SOFA score (Pı=ı0.024), number of organ failures (NOF) (Pı<0.001) and ICU mortality (Pı=ı0.028), compared with patients in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Patients in Q1 had signiı cantly higher cholesterol (Pı=ı0.06) and lower procalcitonin (Pı=ı0.05) at enrolment. At the extremes, patients in Q1 had decreased 28-day mortality (Pı=ı0.023) and, patients in Q4 had increased 28-day mortality, compared with the other quartiles of patients (Pı=ı0.009). Interestingly, patients in Q2 had signiı cant increased mortality compared with patients in Q1 (Pı=ı0.043), whereas the patients in Q2 had no signiı cant diı erence in 28-day mortality compared with patients in Q3. Conclusion Adverse outcomes and several potential risk factors, including organ failure, are signiı cantly associated with higher quartiles of LT concentrations. It may be useful to revise the cutoı value of lactate according to the SSC (4 mmol/l).
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BACKGROUND: Prognosis of status epilepticus (SE) depends on its cause, but there is uncertainty as to whether SE represents an independent outcome predictor for a given etiology. Cerebral anoxia is a relatively homogenous severe encephalopathy. Postanoxic SE is associated to a nearly 100% mortality in this setting; however, it is still unclear whether this is a severity marker of the underlying encephalopathy, or an independent factor influencing outcome. The goal of this study was to assess if postanoxic SE is independently associated with mortality after cerebral anoxia. METHODS: This was a retrospective observation of consecutive comatose survivors of cardiac arrest, including subjects treated with hypothermia. On the subgroup with EEG recordings in the first hospitalization days, univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to potential determinants of in-hospital mortality, and included the following variables: age, gender, type and length of cardiac arrest, occurrence of circulatory shock, presence of therapeutic hypothermia, and electrographic SE. RESULTS: Out of 166 postanoxic patients, 107 (64%) had an EEG (median latency from admission, 2 days); in this group, therapeutic hypothermia was administered in 59%. Death occurred in 71 (67%) patients. Postanoxic SE was associated with mortality regardless of type of acute cardiac rhythm and administration of hypothermic treatment. CONCLUSION: In this hospital-based cohort, postanoxic status epilepticus (SE) seems to be independently related to death in cardiac arrest survivors, suggesting that SE might determine a bad prognosis for a given etiology. Confirmation of these results in a prospective assessment is needed.
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OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate new electrocardiographic (ECG) criteria for discriminating between incomplete right bundle branch block (RBBB) and the Brugada types 2 and 3 ECG patterns. BACKGROUND: Brugada syndrome can manifest as either type 2 or type 3 pattern. The latter should be distinguished from incomplete RBBB, present in 3% of the population. METHODS: Thirty-eight patients with either type 2 or type 3 Brugada pattern that were referred for an antiarrhythmic drug challenge (AAD) were included. Before AAD, 2 angles were measured from ECG leads V(1) and/or V(2) showing incomplete RBBB: 1) α, the angle between a vertical line and the downslope of the r'-wave, and 2) β, the angle between the upslope of the S-wave and the downslope of the r'-wave. Baseline angle values, alone or combined with QRS duration, were compared between patients with negative and positive results on AAD. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed to identify optimal discriminative cutoff values. RESULTS: The mean β angle was significantly smaller in the 14 patients with negative results on AAD compared to the 24 patients with positive results on AAD (36 ± 20° vs. 62 ± 20°, p < 0.01). Its optimal cutoff value was 58°, which yielded a positive predictive value of 73% and a negative predictive value of 87% for conversion to type 1 pattern on AAD; α was slightly less sensitive and specific compared with β. When the angles were combined with QRS duration, it tended to improve discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected Brugada syndrome, simple ECG criteria can enable discrimination between incomplete RBBB and types 2 and 3 Brugada patterns.