Native Grassland Conversion: the Roles of Risk Intervention and Switching Costs

We develop a real option model of the irreversible native grassland conversion decision. Upon plowing, native grassland can be followed by either a permanent cropping system or a system in which land is put under cropping (respectively, grazing) whenever crop prices are high (respectively, low). Switching costs are incurred upon alternating between cropping and grazing. The effects of risk intervention in the form of crop insurance subsidies are studied, as are the effects of cropping innovations that reduce switching costs. We calibrate the model by using cropping return data for South Central North Dakota from 1989 to 2012. Simulations show that a risk intervention that offsets 20% of a cropping return shortfall increases the sod-busting cost threshold, below which native sod will be busted, by 41% (or $43.7/acre). Omitting cropping return risk across time underestimates this sod-busting cost threshold by 23% (or $24.35/acre), and hence underestimates the native sod conversion caused by crop production.

Assessing the Costs for Hybrid versus Regular Transit Buses, October 2012

This technical brief summarizes information about the costs and benefits that have been attributed to use of hybrid transit buses as found in the literature. Results from a demonstration project that compared fuel economy and emissions for 12 hybrid buses and 7 control buses for the transit agency for Ames, Iowa and Iowa State University, CyRide, were also included.

Effectiveness of Work Zone Intelligent Transportation Systems, TPF-5(081), 2013

In the last decade, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have increasingly been deployed in work zones by state departments of transportation. Also known as smart work zone systems they improve traffic operations and safety by providing real-time information to travelers, monitoring traffic conditions, and managing incidents. Although there have been numerous ITS deployments in work zones, a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of these deployments does not exist. To justify the continued development and implementation of smart work zone systems, this study developed a framework to determine ITS effectiveness for specific work zone projects. The framework recommends using one or more of five performance measures: diversion rate, delay time, queue length, crash frequency, and speed. The monetary benefits and costs of ITS deployment in a work zone can then be computed using the performance measure values. Such ITS computations include additional considerations that are typically not present in standard benefit-cost computations. The proposed framework will allow for consistency in performance measures across different ITS studies thus allowing for comparisons across studies or for meta analysis. In addition, guidance on the circumstances under which ITS deployment is recommended for a work zone is provided. The framework was illustrated using two case studies: one urban work zone on I-70 and one rural work zone on I-44, in Missouri. The goals of the two ITS deployments were different – the I-70 ITS deployment was targeted at improving mobility whereas the I-44 deployment was targeted at improving safety. For the I-70 site, only permanent ITS equipment that was already in place was used for the project and no temporary ITS equipment was deployed. The permanent DMS equipment serves multiple purposes, and it is arguable whether that cost should be attributed to the work zone project. The data collection effort for the I-70 site was very significant as portable surveillance captured the actual diversion flows to alternative routes. The benefit-cost ratio for the I-70 site was 2.1 to 1 if adjusted equipment costs were included and 6.9 to 1 without equipment costs. The safety-focused I-44 ITS deployment had an estimated benefit-cost ratio of 3.2 to 1.

Stream Stabilization in Western Iowa, HR-352, 1994

Stream channel erosion in the deep loess soils region of western Iowa causes severe damage along hundreds of miles of streams in twenty-two counties. The goal of this project was to develop information, systems, and procedures for use in making resource allocation decisions related to the protection of transportation facilities and farmland from damages caused by stream channel erosion. Section one of this report provides an introduction. Section two presents an assessment of stream channel conditions from aerial and field reconnaissance conducted in 1993 and 1994 and a classification of the streams based on a six stage model of stream channel evolution. A Geographic Information System is discussed that has been developed to store and analyze data on the stream conditions and affected infrastructure and assist in the planning of stabilization measures. Section three presents an evaluation of two methods for predicting the extent of channel degradation. Section four presents an estimate of costs associated with damages from stream channel erosion since the time of channelization until 1992. Damage to highway bridges represent the highest costs associated with channel erosion, followed by railroad bridges and right-of-way; loss of agricultural land represents the third highest cost. An estimate of costs associated with future channel erosion on western Iowa streams is also presented in section four. Section four also presents a procedure to estimate the benefits and costs of implementing stream stabilization measures. The final section of this report, section five, presents information on the development of the organizational structure and administrative procedures which are being used to plan, coordinate, and implement stream stabilization projects and programs in western Iowa.

Alternatives for Rural Roads, HR-242, 1989

Much of the nation's rural road system is deteriorating. Many of the roads were built in the 1880s and 1890s with the most recent upgrading done in the 1940s and 1950s. Consequently, many roads and bridges do not have the capacity for the increased loads, speed, and frequent use of today's vehicles. Because of the growing demands and a dense county road system (inherited from the land settlement policies two centuries ago), revenue available to counties is inadequate to upgrade andmaintain the present system. Either revenue must be increased - an unpopular option - or costs must be reduced. To examine cost-saving options, Iowa State University conducted a study of roads and bridges in three 100 square mile areas in Iowa: • A suburban area • A rural area with a large number of paved roads, few bridges, and a high agricultural tax base and •A more rural area in a hilly terrain with many bridges and gravel roads, and a low agricultural tax base. A cost-benefit analysis was made on the present road system in these areas on such options as abandoning roads with limited use, converting some to private drives, and reducing maintenance on these types of roads. In only a few instances does abandonment of low traffic volume roads produce cost savings for counties and abutting land owners that exceed the additional travel costs to the public. In this study, the types of roads that produced net savings when abandoned were: • A small percentage (less than 5 percent) of the nonpaved county roads in the suburban area. However, net savings were very small. Cost savings from reducing the county road system in urbanized areas are very limited. • Slightly more than 5 percent of the nonpaved county roads in the most rural area that had a small number of paved county roads. • More than 12 percent of the nonpaved roads in the rural area that had a relatively large number of paved county and state roads. Converting low-volume roads to low-maintenance or Service B roads produces the largest savings of all solutions considered. However, future bridge deterioration and county liability on Service B roads are potential problems. Converting low-volume roads to private drives also produces large net savings. Abandonment of deadend roads results in greater net savings than continuous roads. However, this strategy shifts part of the public maintenance burden to land owners. Land owners also then become responsible for accident liability. Reconstruction to bring selected bridges with weight restrictions up to legal load limits reduces large truck and tractor-wagon mileage and costs. However, the reconstruction costs exceeded the reduction in travel costs. Major sources of vehicle miles on county roads are automobiles used for household purposes and pickup truck travel for farm purposes. Farm-related travel represents a relatively small percent of total travel miles, but a relatively high percentage of total travel costs.

Iowa Commuter Transportation Study

During the 2014 legislative session, Senate File 2349 was passed which states the Iowa Department of Transportation “shall conduct a study to identify administrative needs, projected demand, necessary capital and operating costs, and public transit service structures including park-and-ride lots, employer or public van pool programs, and traditional fixed-route transit. The department shall submit a report with findings and recommendations to the general assembly on or before December 15, 2014.”

Proceedings of the 2014 Iowa Tribal Summit on Cultural Preservation and Transportation, 2014

The 2014 Iowa Tribal Summit on Cultural Preservation and Transportation was a three day event held in Ames, Iowa, where Tribal officials, transportation officials, and preservation partners sat down to discuss various topics of interest related to consultation under the National Historical Preservation Act. The goal of this Summit was for these groups to discuss and develop effective project consultation. These proceeding provide a summary of the event, as well as recommendations for how to approach similar events in the future. In sum, 13 tribal officials, 16 transportation officials, 10 preservation partners, and two moderators attended all parts of the Summit. The 2014 Summit was a successful event when assessed in terms of group participation and attendee feedback. However, all attendees agree that events such as this Summit are most effective when they occur on a somewhat regular basis, where consulting parties can have regular dialog and interaction regarding all aspects of consultation under the National Historical Preservation Act. Recommendations offered herein can be applied to various consultation situations. -- Summary, page iii

Survey of D.O.T.'s Traffic Paint Costs in 1979, HR-515, 1980

This report presents the results of a survey on the use of yellow versus white traffic paint. It was found that in most states the white paint was less expensive than the yellow. A substantial savings could be realized if an all white traffic marking system was permitted by the Federal Highway Administration. Paint costs from each state are presented, as well as by each region.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Relative Technical Efficiency of European Transportation Systems

Talouden kasvaessa myös tavarankuljetusmäärät kasvavat. Kuljetusjärjestelmät ja niiden sujuva toiminta on erittäin tärkeää taloudellisen kasvun kannalta tällä hetkellä, ja se tulee olemaan yhä tärkeämpää tulevaisuudessa. Tulevaisuudessa tarvitaan kokonaisvaltainen ja selkeästi tehokkaampi kuljetusjärjestelmä, mikäli tulevaisuuden kuljetusvirrat halutaan hoitaa kestävästi. Tässä opinnäytetyössäni tutkin kolmen eurooppalaisen kuljetusjärjestelmän (rautatiet, lentoliikenne ja konttiliikenne meritse) suhteellista teknistä tehokkuutta ja menetelmänä on data envelopment analysis (DEA). Vertailtaessa kuljetusjärjestelmiä löytyi suuria eroja kuljetusmuotojen välille. lentoyhtiöt suoriutuivat huomattavan tasaisesti eli tehokkaiden ja ei-tehokkaiden toimijoiden välillä ei ollut suuria eroja. Rautatiepuolella erot venyivät huomattavan suuriksi niin eri yritysten välillä kuin jopa saman yrityksen sisällä eri vuosina. Pikaisemmassa laivayhtiöiden tarkastelussa erot niiden välillä olivat lähes yhtä pieniä kuin lentoyhtiöiden välillä. Tarkasteltaessa omistajuuden vaikutusta lentoyhtiöiden toiminnassa huomattiin, että yksityisessä omistuksessa olevat yritykset olivat huomattavasti tehokkaampia matkustajien kuljettamisessa. Rahtipuolella merkittäviä eroja ei havaittu. Merkittävät korrelaatiot eri mallien välillä antoivat joitain viitteitä myös kuljetuspoliittiseen päätöksentekoon; investoinnit matkustajienkuljetuksiin raiteilla parantaisivat koko rautatiepuolen teokkuutta, mutta myös samalla lentopuolen matkustajakuljetuksen tehokkuutta.

Externalities of Shipping in the Gulf of Finland until 2015

During the last few years, the discussion on the marginal social costs of transportation has been active. Applying the externalities as a tool to control transport would fulfil the polluter pays principle and simultaneously create a fair control method between the transport modes. This report presents the results of two calculation algorithms developed to estimate the marginal social costs based on the externalities of air pollution. The first algorithm calculates the future scenarios of sea transport traffic externalities until 2015 in the Gulf of Finland. The second algorithm calculates the externalities of Russian passenger car transit traffic via Finland by taking into account both sea and road transport. The algorithm estimates the ship-originated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur oxides (SO_x), particulates (PM) and the externalities for each year from 2007 to 2015. The total NOx emissions in the Gulf of Finland from the six ship types were almost 75.7 kilotons (Table 5.2) in 2007. The ship types are: passenger (including cruisers and ROPAX vessels), tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessels. Due to the increase of traffic, the estimation for NO_x emissions for 2015 is 112 kilotons. The NO_x emission estimation for the whole Baltic Sea shipping is 370 kilotons in 2006 (Stipa & al, 2007). The total marginal social costs due to ship-originated CO₂, NO_x, SO_x and PM emissions in the GOF were calculated to almost 175 million Euros in 2007. The costs will increase to nearly 214 million Euros in 2015 due to the traffic growth. The major part of the externalities is due to CO₂ emissions. If we neglect the CO2 emissions by extracting the CO₂ externalities from the results, we get the total externalities of 57 million Euros in 2007. After eight years (2015), the externalities would be 28 % lower, 41 million Euros (Table 8.1). This is the result of the sulphur emissions reducing regulation of marine fuels. The majority of the new car transit goes through Finland to Russia due to the lack of port capacity in Russia. The amount of cars was 339 620 vehicles (Statistics of Finnish Customs 2008) in 2005. The externalities are calculated for the transportation of passenger vehicles as follows: by ship to a Finnish port and, after that, by trucks to the Russian border checkpoint. The externalities are between 2 – 3 million Euros (year 2000 cost level) for each route. The ports included in the calculations are Hamina, Hanko, Kotka and Turku. With the Euro-3 standard trucks, the port of Hanko would be the best choice to transport the vehicles. This is because of lower emissions by new trucks and the saved transport distance of a ship. If the trucks are more polluting Euro 1 level trucks, the port of Kotka would be the best choice. This indicates that the truck emissions have a considerable effect on the externalities and that the transportation of light cargo, such as passenger cars by ship, produces considerably high emission externalities. The emission externalities approach offers a new insight for valuing the multiple traffic modes. However, the calculation of the marginal social costs based on the air emission externalities should not be regarded as a ready-made calculation system. The system is clearly in the need of some improvement but it can already be considered as a potential tool for political decision making.

Maritime Safety in the Gulf of Finland. Review on Policy Instruments

Suomenlahden lisääntynyt meriliikenne on herättänyt huolta meriliikenteen turvallisuuden tasosta, ja erityisesti Venäjän öljyviennin kasvu on lisännyt öljyonnettomuuden todennäköisyyttä Suomenlahdella. Erilaiset kansainväliset, alueelliset ja kansalliset ohjauskeinot pyrkivät vähentämään merionnettomuuden riskiä ja meriliikenteen muita haittavaikutuksia. Tämä raportti käsittelee meriturvallisuuden yhteiskunnallisia ohjauskeinoja: ohjauskeinoja yleisellä tasolla, meriturvallisuuden keskeisimpiä säätelijöitä, meriturvallisuuden ohjauskeinoja ja meriturvallisuuspolitiikan tulevaisuuden näkymiä, ohjauskeinojen tehokkuutta ja nykyisen meriturvallisuuden ohjausjärjestelmän heikkouksia. Raportti on kirjallisuuskatsaus meriturvallisuuden yhteiskunnalliseen sääntelyn rakenteeseen ja tilaan erityisesti Suomenlahden meriliikenteen näkökulmasta. Raportti on osa tutkimusprojektia ”SAFGOF - Suomenlahden meriliikenteen kasvunäkymät 2007 - 2015 ja kasvun vaikutukset ympäristölle ja kuljetusketjujen toimintaan” ja sen työpakettia 6 ”Keskeisimmät riskit ja yhteiskunnalliset vaikutuskeinot”. Yhteiskunnalliset ohjauskeinot voidaan ryhmitellä hallinnollisiin, taloudellisiin ja tietoohjaukseen perustuviin ohjauskeinoihin. Meriturvallisuuden edistämisessä käytetään kaikkia näitä, mutta hallinnolliset ohjauskeinot ovat tärkeimmässä asemassa. Merenkulun kansainvälisen luonteen vuoksi meriturvallisuuden sääntely tapahtuu pääosin kansainvälisellä tasolla YK:n ja erityisesti Kansainvälisen merenkulkujärjestön (IMO) toimesta. Lisäksi myös Euroopan Unionilla on omaa meriturvallisuuteen liittyvää sääntelyä ja on myös olemassa muita alueellisia meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen liittyviä elimiä kuten HELCOM. Joitakin meriturvallisuuden osa-alueita säädellään myös kansallisella tasolla. Hallinnolliset meriturvallisuuden ohjauskeinot sisältävät aluksen rakenteisiin ja varustukseen, alusten kunnon valvontaan, merimiehiin ja merityön tekemiseen sekä navigointiin liittyviä ohjauskeinoja. Taloudellisiin ohjauskeinoihin kuuluvat esimerkiksi väylä- ja satamamaksut, merivakuutukset, P&I klubit, vastuullisuus- ja korvauskysymykset sekä taloudelliset kannustimet. Taloudellisten ohjauskeinojen käyttö meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen on melko vähäistä verrattuna hallinnollisten ohjauskeinojen käyttöön, mutta niitä voitaisiin varmasti käyttää enemmänkin. Ongelmana taloudellisten ohjauskeinojen käytössä on se, että ne kuuluvat pitkälti kansallisen sääntelyn piiriin, joten alueellisten tai kansainvälisten intressien edistäminen taloudellisilla ohjauskeinoilla voi olla hankalaa. Tieto-ohjaus perustuu toimijoiden vapaaehtoisuuteen ja yleisen tiedotuksen lisäksi tieto-ohjaukseen sisältyy esimerkiksi vapaaehtoinen koulutus, sertifiointi tai meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen tähtäävät palkinnot. Poliittisella tasolla meriliikenteen aiheuttamat turvallisuusriskit Suomenlahdella on otettu vakavasti ja paljon työtä tehdään eri tahoilla riskien minimoimiseksi. Uutta sääntelyä on odotettavissa etenkin liittyen meriliikenteen ympäristövaikutuksiin ja meriliikenteen ohjaukseen kuten meriliikenteen sähköisiin seurantajärjestelmiin. Myös inhimilliseen tekijän merkitykseen meriturvallisuuden kehittämisessä on kiinnitetty lisääntyvissä määrin huomiota, mutta inhimilliseen tekijän osalta tehokkaiden ohjauskeinojen kehittäminen näyttää olevan haasteellista. Yleisimmin lääkkeeksi esitetään koulutuksen kehittämistä. Kirjallisuudessa esitettyjen kriteereiden mukaan tehokkaiden ohjauskeinojen tulisi täyttää seuraavat vaatimukset: 1) tarkoituksenmukaisuus – ohjauskeinojen täytyy olla sopivia asetetun tavoitteen saavuttamiseen, 2) taloudellinen tehokkuus – ohjauskeinon hyödyt vs. kustannukset tulisi olla tasapainossa, 3) hyväksyttävyys – ohjauskeinon täytyy olla hyväksyttävä asianosaisten ja myös laajemman yhteiskunnan näkökulmasta katsottuna, 4) toimeenpano – ohjauskeinon toimeenpanon pitää olla mahdollista ja sen noudattamista täytyy pystyä valvomaan, 5) lateraaliset vaikutukset – hyvällä ohjauskeinolla on positiivisia seurannaisvaikutuksia muutoinkin kuin vain ohjauskeinon ensisijaisten tavoitteiden saavuttaminen, 6) kannustin ja uuden luominen – hyvä ohjauskeino kannustaa kokeilemaan uusia ratkaisuja ja kehittämään toimintaa. Meriturvallisuutta koskevaa sääntelyä on paljon ja yleisesti ottaen merionnettomuuksien lukumäärä on ollut laskeva viime vuosikymmenien aikana. Suuri osa sääntelystä on ollut tehokasta ja parantanut turvallisuuden tasoa maailman merillä. Silti merionnettomuuksia ja muita vaarallisia tapahtumia sattuu edelleen. Nykyistä sääntelyjärjestelmää voidaan kritisoida monen asian suhteen. Kansainvälisen sääntelyn aikaansaaminen ei ole helppoa: prosessi on yleensä hidas ja tuloksena voi olla kompromissien kompromissi. Kansainvälinen sääntely on yleensä reaktiivista eli ongelmakohtiin puututaan vasta kun jokin onnettomuus tapahtuu sen sijaan että se olisi proaktiivista ja pyrkisi puuttumaan ongelmakohtiin jo ennen kuin jotain tapahtuu. IMO:n työskentely perustuu kansallisvaltioiden osallistumiseen ja sääntelyn toimeenpano tapahtuu lippuvaltioiden toimesta. Kansallisvaltiot ajavat IMO:ssa pääasiallisesti omia intressejään ja sääntelyn toimeenpanossa on suuria eroja lippuvaltioiden välillä. IMO:n kyvyttömyys puuttua havaittuihin ongelmiin nopeasti ja ottaa sääntelyssä huomioon paikallisia olosuhteita on johtanut siihen, että esimerkiksi Euroopan Unioni on alkanut itse säädellä meriturvallisuutta ja että on olemassa sellaisia alueellisia erityisjärjestelyjä kuin PSSA (particularly sensitive sea area – erityisen herkkä merialue). Merenkulkualalla toimii monenlaisia yrityksiä: toisaalta yrityksiä, jotka pyrkivät toimimaan turvallisesti ja kehittämään turvallisuutta vielä korkeammalle tasolle, ja toisaalta yrityksiä, jotka toimivat niin halvalla kuin mahdollista, eivät välitä turvallisuusseikoista, ja joilla usein on monimutkaiset ja epämääräiset omistusolosuhteet ja joita vahingon sattuessa on vaikea saada vastuuseen. Ongelma on, että kansainvälisellä merenkulkualalla kaikkien yritysten on toimittava samoilla markkinoilla. Vastuuttomien yritysten toiminnan mahdollistavat laivaajat ja muut alan toimijat, jotka suostuvat tekemään yhteistyötä niiden kanssa. Välinpitämätön suhtautuminen turvallisuuteen johtuu osaksi myös merenkulun vanhoillisesta turvallisuuskulttuurista. Verrattaessa meriturvallisuuden sääntelyjärjestelmää kokonaisuutena tehokkaiden ohjauskeinoihin kriteereihin, voidaan todeta, että monien kriteerien osalta nykyistä järjestelmää voidaan pitää tehokkaana ja onnistuneena. Suurimmat ongelmat lienevät sääntelyn toimeenpanossa ja ohjauskeinojen kustannustehokkuudessa. Lippuvaltioiden toimeenpanoon perustuva järjestelmä ei toimi toivotulla tavalla, josta mukavuuslippujen olemassa olo on selvin merkki. Ohjauskeinojen, sekä yksittäisten ohjauskeinojen että vertailtaessa eri ohjauskeinoja keskenään, kustannustehokkuutta on usein vaikea arvioida, minkä seurauksena ohjauskeinojen kustannustehokkuudesta ei ole saatavissa luotettavaa tietoa ja tuloksena voi olla, että ohjauskeino on käytännössä pienen riskin eliminoimista korkealla kustannuksella. Kansainvälisen tason meriturvallisuus- (ja merenkulku-) politiikan menettelytavoiksi on ehdotettu myös muita vaihtoehtoja kuin nykyinen järjestelmä, esimerkiksi monitasoista tai polysentristä hallintojärjestelmää. Monitasoisella hallintojärjestelmällä tarkoitetaan järjestelmää, jossa keskushallinto on hajautettu sekä vertikaalisesti alueellisille tasoille että horisontaalisesti ei-valtiollisille toimijoille. Polysentrinen hallintojärjestelmä menee vielä askeleen pidemmälle. Polysentrinen hallintojärjestelmä on hallintotapa, jonka puitteissa kaikentyyppiset toimijat, sekä yksityiset että julkiset, voivat osallistua hallintoon, siis esimerkiksi hallitukset, edunvalvontajärjestöt, kaupalliset yritykset jne. Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö määrittelee yleiset tasot, mutta konkreettiset toimenpiteet voidaan päättää paikallisella tasolla eri toimijoiden välisessä yhteistyössä. Tämän tyyppisissä hallintojärjestelmissä merenkulkualan todellinen, kansainvälinen mutta toisaalta paikallinen, toimintaympäristö tulisi otetuksi paremmin huomioon kuin järjestelmässä, joka perustuu kansallisvaltioiden keskenään yhteistyössä tekemään sääntelyyn. Tällainen muutos meriturvallisuuden hallinnassa vaatisi kuitenkin suurta periaatteellista suunnanmuutosta, jollaisen toteutumista ei voi pitää kovin todennäköisenä ainakaan lyhyellä tähtäimellä.

Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

Five Baltic Ports Togehter: Forecasts, Trends and Recommendations

The ports of Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Naantali and Turku play key roles in making the Central Baltic region accessible. Effective, competitive, eco-friendly and safe port procedures and solutions for the transportation of goods are of major importance for trade in the Baltic Sea region. This report presents the most essential results and recommendations of the PENTA project, which focused on how ports could better comprehend and face current and future challenges facing carriage of goods by sea. Each of the four work packages (WPs) of the PENTA project analysed the changes from a different perspective. WP2 focused on traffic flows between the PENTA ports. Its main emphasis was on the ports, shipowners, and logistics companies that are the key parties in freight transport and on the changes affecting the economy of those ports. In WP3 noise as an environmental challenge for ports was investigated and the analysis also shed light on the relationship between the port and the city. In WP4 procedures related to safety, security and administrative procedures were researched. The main emphasis was on identifying the requirements for the harmonisation of those procedures. Collaboration is highlighted throughout this report. In order to prepare for the future, it was found that ports need to respond to growing competition, increasing costs and shifts in customer demand by strengthening their existing partnerships with other actors in the maritime cluster. Cargo and passenger transport are the main sources of income for most ports. Cargo traffic between the PENTA ports is expected to grow steadily in the future and the outlook for passenger traffic is positive. However, to prepare for the future, ports should not only secure the core activities which generate revenue but also seek alternative ways to make profit. In order to gain more transit traffic, it is suggested that ports conduct a more thorough study of the future requirements for doing business with Russia. The investigation of noise at ports revealed two specific dilemmas that ports cannot solve alone. Firstly, the noise made by vessels and, secondly, the relationship between the port and the surrounding city. Vessels are the most important single noise source in the PENTA ports and also one of the hardest noise sources to handle. Nevertheless, port authorities in Finland and Sweden are held responsible for all noise in the port area, including noise produced by vessels, which is noise the port authority can only influence indirectly. Building housing by waterfront areas close to ports may also initiate disagreements because inhabitants may want quiet areas, whereas port activities always produce some noise from their traffic. The qualitative aspects of the noise question, cooperating with the stakeholders and the communicating of issues related to noise are just as important. We propose that ports should follow the logic of continuous improvement in their noise management. The administrative barriers discussed in this report are mainly caused by differences in international and national legislation, variations in the customs procedures of each country, the incompatibility of the IT systems used in maritime transport, noncompliance with regulations regarding dangerous goods, and difficulties in applying Schengen regulations to vessels from non-EU countries. Improving the situation is out of the hands of the ports to do alone and requires joint action on a variety of levels, including the EU, national authorities and across administrative borders.

Validation and Selection of Transportation Cost Drivers with Advanced Methods

In today's logistics environment, there is a tremendous need for accurate cost information and cost allocation. Companies searching for the proper solution often come across with activity-based costing (ABC) or one of its variations which utilizes cost drivers to allocate the costs of activities to cost objects. In order to allocate the costs accurately and reliably, the selection of appropriate cost drivers is essential in order to get the benefits of the costing system. The purpose of this study is to validate the transportation cost drivers of a Finnish wholesaler company and ultimately select the best possible driver alternatives for the company. The use of cost driver combinations as an alternative is also studied. The study is conducted as a part of case company's applied ABC-project using the statistical research as the main research method supported by a theoretical, literature based method. The main research tools featured in the study include simple and multiple regression analyses, which together with the literature and observations based practicality analysis forms the basis for the advanced methods. The results suggest that the most appropriate cost driver alternatives are the delivery drops and internal delivery weight. The possibility of using cost driver combinations is not suggested as their use doesn't provide substantially better results while increasing the measurement costs, complexity and load of use at the same time. The use of internal freight cost drivers is also questionable as the results indicate weakening trend in the cost allocation capabilities towards the end of the period. Therefore more research towards internal freight cost drivers should be conducted before taking them in use.