Torsion influence on braneworld scenarios

In this paper we present the torsion influence in a braneworld scenario, developing the bulk metric Taylor expansion around the brane. This generalization is presented in order to better probe braneworld properties in a Riemann-Cartan framework, and it is also shown how the factors involving contorsion change the effective Einstein equation on the brane, the effective cosmological constant, and their consequence in a Taylor expansion of the bulk metric around the brane. Copyright © owned by the author(s) under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike Licence.

Scenarios for the new era

Presenta algunos aspectos centrales de la reflexión de Medina Echavarría en torno a los problemas de la paz, la guerra fría y las perspectivas de distensión.

Modelling fungus dispersal scenarios using cellular automata

This study focused on representing spatio-temporal patterns of fungal dispersal using cellular automata. Square lattices were used, with each site representing a host for a hypothetical fungus population. Four possible host states were allowed: resistant, permissive, latent or infectious. In this model, the probability of infection for each of the healthy states (permissive or resistant) in a time step was determined as a function of the host's susceptibility, seasonality, and the number of infectious sites and the distance between them. It was also assumed that infected sites become infectious after a pre-specified latency period, and that recovery is not possible. Several scenarios were simulated to understand the contribution of the model's parameters and the spatial structure on the dynamic behaviour of the modelling system. The model showed good capability for representing the spatio-temporal pattern of fungus dispersal over planar surfaces. With a specific problem in mind, the model can be easily modified and used to describe field behaviour, which can contribute to the conservation and development of management strategies for both natural and agricultural systems. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Latin America in the possible scenarios of détente

Includes bibliography

Braneworlds scenarios in a gravity model with higher order spatial three-curvature terms

In this work we study a Hořava-like 5-dimensional model in the context of braneworld theory. The equations of motion of such model are obtained and, within the realm of warped geometry, we show that the model is consistent if and only if λ takes its relativistic value 1. Furthermore, we show that the elimination of problematic terms involving the warp factor second order derivatives are eliminated by imposing detailed balance condition in the bulk. Afterwards, Israel's junction conditions are computed, allowing the attainment of an effective Lagrangian in the visible brane. In particular, we show that the resultant effective Lagrangian in the brane corresponds to a (3 + 1)-dimensional Hořava-like model with an emergent positive cosmological constant but without detailed balance condition. Now, restoration of detailed balance condition, at this time imposed over the brane, plays an interesting role by fitting accordingly the sign of the arbitrary constant β, insuring a positive brane tension and a real energy for the graviton within its dispersion relation. Also, the brane consistency equations are obtained and, as a result, the model admits positive brane tensions in the compactification scheme if, and only if, β is negative and the detailed balance condition is imposed. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg and Società Italiana di Fisica.

Risk/investment-driven transmission expansion planning with multiple scenarios

This study presents a new methodology based on risk/investment to solve transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) problem with multiple future scenarios. Three mathematical models related to TNEP problems considering multiple future generation and load scenarios are also presented. These models will provide planners with a meaningful risk assessment that enable them to determine the necessary funding for transmission lines at a permissible risk level. The results using test and real systems show that the proposed method presents better solutions compared with scenario analysis method. ©The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential from green harvested sugarcane scenarios in São Paulo State, Brazil

Brazil is a major sugarcane producer and São Paulo State cultivates 5.5 million hectares, close to 50% of Brazil's sugarcane area. The rapid increase in production has brought into question the sustainability of biofuels, especially considering the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated to the agricultural sector. Despite the significant progress towards the green harvest practices, 1.67 million hectares were still burned in São Paulo State during the 2011 harvest season. Here an emissions inventory for the life cycle of sugarcane agricultural production is estimated using IPCC methodologies, according to the agriculture survey data and remote sensing database. Our hypothesis is that 1.67 million hectares shall be converted from burned to green harvest scenarios up to years 2021 (rate 1), 2014 (rate 2) or 2029 (rate 3). Those conversions would represent a significant GHG mitigation, ranging from 50.5 to 70.9 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) up to 2050, depending on the conversion rate and the green harvest systems adopted: conventional (scenario S1) or conservationist management (scenario S2). We show that a green harvest scenario where crop rotation and reduced soil tillage are practiced has a higher mitigation potential (70.9 Mt CO2eq), which is already practiced in some of the sugarcane areas. Here we support the decision to not just stop burning prior to harvest, but also to consider other better practices in sugarcane areas to have a more sustainable sugarcane based ethanol production in the most dense cultivated sugarcane region in Brazil. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodological report on the impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on population patterns in Bolivia

Incluye Bibliografía

The Panama Canal turns 100: history and possible future scenarios

This issue of the FAL Bulletin sets out a brief history of the Panama Canal, its construction and its social and political impact on Panama, within the context of international trade at the time. This issue also reviews the recovery of the canal by the Republic of Panama and subsequent major events, including the decision to expand the canal and the start-up of work on the expansion project.

New maritime transport scenarios. Part I: current context of maritime trade

This FAL Bulletin is part of a series on ports and maritime trade in the region. It is closely related to Issue No. 337 - Number 1 / 2015, which sets out the need for a new port governance in the region to address the new circumstances that have arisen in the maritime market. As such, and given the need for contextual information, this Bulletin is divided into two sections, the first devoted to the current status of world maritime trade (with special focus on container trade), and the second detailing the situation of the shipping industry.

New maritime transport scenarios. Part II: fluctuations in shipping and new scenarios

This FAL Bulletin details the situation of the shipping industry and forms the second and final part of a larger document that begins with Issue No. 338, which puts the current status of maritime trade in context. Both documents fit into a series of bulletins about ports and maritime trade in the region and are, therefore, closely linked to Issue No. 337, which sets out the need for a new port governance in the region to address the new circumstances that have arisen in the maritime market.

Cenários de desmatamento para a Amazônia

A AMAZÔNIA está entrando em uma era de rápidas mudanças impulsionadas pela previsão de asfaltamento de rodovias que estimularão a expansão da fronteira agrícola e de exploração madeireira. O declínio do custo de transporte tem importantes implicações para a biodiversidade, emissão de gases que contribuem para o efeito estufa e prosperidade da sociedade da Amazônia a longo prazo. Para analisar esse contexto, foi desenvolvido um modelo de simulação de desmatamento na bacia Amazônica, sensível a diferentes cenários de políticas públicas frente à expansão da infra-estrutura de transporte pela região. Resultados do modelo indicam que, dentro de um cenário pessimista, o desmatamento projetado pode eliminar, até meados deste século, 40% dos atuais 5,4 milhões de km2 de florestas da Amazônia, liberando o equivalente a 32 Pg (109 toneladas) de carbono para atmosfera. A modelagem de cenários alternativos aponta que a expansão de uma rede de áreas protegidas, efetivamente implementadas, poderia reduzir em até 1/3 as perdas florestais projetadas. Contudo, outras medidas de conservação são ainda necessárias para se manter a integridade funcional das paisagens e bacias hidrográficas amazônicas. Atuais experimentos em conservação florestal em propriedades privadas, mercados de serviços ambientais e zoneamento agro-ecológico devem ser refinados e multiplicados a fim de se buscar uma conservação extensiva.

Efetividade de gestão da área de proteção ambiental Triunfo do Xingu: desafios de consolidação de uma unidade de conservação na região da Terra do Meio, estado do Pará

A APA Triunfo do Xingu localiza-se na região da Terra do Meio a sudoeste do Estado do Pará foi criada em 2006 com aproximadamente 1.670.000 ha está inserida numa região com importantes remanescentes da biodiversidade amazônica. A região sofre grande pressão antrópica, principalmente pelo desflorestamento decorrente da exploração madeireira ilegal, do avanço da pecuária e queimadas. A existência de uma unidade de conservação na categoria APA numa região com altos índices de degradação ambiental e grilagem de terras como a região da Terra do Meio é muito contestada como instrumento efetivo de proteção da biodiversidade e ordenamento territorial. O trabalho teve por objetivo elaborar e aplicar um modelo de qualificação de gestão da APA Triunfo do Xingu baseando-se no conceito de efetividade de gestão de maneira a aferir se a mesma está cumprindo os objetivos que nortearam sua criação. Indicadores foram elaborados e agrupados em seis temáticas: ambiental, gestão, econômico, legal, politico-institucionais e sociocultural, e posteriormente qualificados em três níveis, de acordo com seus respectivos cenários. O resultado final demonstrou o grau de efetividade de gestão de 54,3%, ou seja, as condições atuais de gestão da APA Triunfo do Xingu foram consideradas medianamente satisfatórias. O indicador politico-institucional foi o melhor pontuado com 66,6%; o indicador legal e o de gestão registraram, respectivamente, as médias de 55,5% e 54,4%; os indicadores sociocultural e ambiental registraram, respectivamente, as médias de 49,9% e 47,1%; e os indicadores econômicos registraram a média de 33,3%, sendo o grupo com o pior desempenho gerencial. Observou-se uma condição de alta vulnerabilidade da APA Triunfo do Xingu que não garante sua existência em longo prazo e os objetivos de conservação que nortearam sua criação dificilmente poderão ser alcançados nessas condições.