Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

The impact of managers' characteristics on the use of public relations strategy : an exploratory study in Queensland schools

While previous positive and normative studies have focused on the role public relations should play in organisations and the need for management in all organisations to attend to public relations (Cutlip et al., 2006), there has been little discussion in the public relations literature on why or how managers choose to enact public relations strategies for their organisations. If the discipline of public relations is to cement itself as a management function, then researchers must gain a better understanding of managers themselves given that they are the ones who decide if and how public relations strategies should be employed in the organisation. This study has sought to explore evidence of a relationship between management characteristics and their impact on decisions managers make when choosing which public relations strategies to adopt in response to changes in the organisation’s operating environment. This exploratory research study has been conducted within a specific context of schools in Queensland, Australia. Queensland schools have been facing a number of changes within their operating environment due to changes in Federal funding models in Australia’s education system. This study used an exploratory, qualitative approach to understand the management characteristics demonstrated by managers in schools and how these have impacted on the selection of public relations strategies for responding to their changing and increasingly competitive environment. The unit of analysis for this research study was principals in State (government) schools and in non-government schools. Ten principals were interviewed from four different types of schools in Queensland – the more traditional, elite, private schools (GPS Schools); other Independent Schools; Catholic Schools; and State (or public) schools. These interviews were analysed for quantitative comparisons of the managers’ characteristics across the different schools (in terms of the number of principals in each age bracket, those holding postgraduate qualifications, years of experience etc.); and for qualitative data to provide a greater sense of their understanding of public relations. The 10 schools were selected within a geographic area from Brisbane’s inner city to its outer western suburbs to include an element of competition amongst those managers being interviewed. A detailed review of government, school and other public documents was also conducted to gain an insight into the environment in which principals made decisions about public relations strategy to respond to increasing competition. This study found support for the literature on the relationship between management characteristics and strategy. However, there was also variation in findings warranting further investigation of the literature on the relationship between management characteristics and strategy in a school setting. Key relationships found in this study were between: management characteristics themselves; age and the use of public relations strategies; and gender and the use of public relations strategies. There was also evidence of support for the literature linking the impact that the combination of managers’ age, education and experience had on the use of public relations strategies. While this study was exploratory in nature, it did reveal a number of areas that require further investigation to gain a deeper understanding of how and why managers choose public relations strategies as a response to changes in their operating environment. It also provided a different framework to gain a better understanding of managers’ understanding and support of public relations in schools, which, in conjunction with an analysis of their management characteristics, will hopefully allow public relations scholars and practitioners alike gain an understanding of how and why managers use public relations strategies.

The variant concept of transportation disadvantaged : evidence from Aydin, Turkey and Yamaga, Japan

Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low income earners, family dependent, limited access to private motor vehicles and public transport services, and also those who oblige to spend relatively more time and money on their trips. Additionally those disable, young and elderly are considered among the natural groups of transportation disadvantaged. Although in general terms this definition seems correct, it is not specific enough to become a common universal definition that could apply to all urban contexts. This paper investigates whether travel difficulty perceptions vary and so does the definition of transportation disadvantaged in socio-culturally different urban contexts. For this investigation the paper undertakes a series of statistical analysis in the case study of Yamaga, Japan, and compares the findings with a previous case study, where the same methodology, hypothesis, and assumptions were utilized in a culturally and demographically different settlement of Aydin, Turkey. After comparing the findings observed in Aydin with the statistical analysis results of Yamaga, this paper reveals that there can be no explicitly detailed universal definition of transportation disadvantaged. The paper concludes by stating characteristics of transportation disadvantage is not globally identical, and policies and solutions that work in a locality may not show the same results in another socio-cultural context.

Chlamydia pneumoniae is genetically diverse in animals and appears to have crossed the host barrier to humans on (at least) two occasions

Chlamydia pneumoniae is a common human and animal pathogen associated with a wide range of diseases. Since the first isolation of C. pneumoniae TWAR in 1965, all human isolates have been essentially clonal, providing little evolutionary insight. To address this gap, we investigated the genetic diversity of 30 isolates from diverse geographical locations, from both human and animal origin (amphibian, reptilian, equine and marsupial). Based on the level of variation that we observed at 23 discreet gene loci, it was clearly evident that the animal isolates were more diverse than the isolates of human origin. Furthermore, we show that C. pneumoniae isolates could be grouped into five major genotypes, A-E, with A, B, D and E genotypes linked by geographical location, whereas genotype C was found across multiple continents. Our evidence strongly supports two separate animal-to-human cross species transfer events in the evolutionary history of this pathogen. The C. pneumoniae human genotype identified in the USA, Canada, Taiwan, Iran, Japan, Korea and Australia (non- Indigenous) most likely originated from a single amphibian or reptilian lineage, which appears to have been previously geographically widespread. We identified a separate human lineage present in two Australian Indigenous isolates (independent geographical locations). This lineage is distinct and is present in Australian amphibians as well as a range of Australian marsupials.

Achieving a responsive industrial relations environment for construction industry workers – a project alliancing case study

This paper outlines how the project agreement operating on the Australian National Museum project in Canberra, Australia facilitated a responsible and responsive workplace environment for construction workers. A project alliancing approach was adopted and designed to encourage industrial relations innovation in the workplace. The trigger for this approach was the perceived success of the alliancing working arrangements between key project delivery teams and a desire to extend this arrangement to subcontractors, suppliers and the workforce. Changes in the Australian workplace relations environment and introduction of a national code of practice for the Australian construction industry provided impetus for reaching a new type of workplace agreement. The workplace culture and characteristics of relationships formed between workers and management on that site shaped the agreed terms and conditions of work. It also spurred the pursuit of innovative approaches to project delivery from a technology, management and workplace culture perspective.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan���s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan���s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan���s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan���s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan���s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan���s futures seen from the point of view of Japan���s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan���s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan���s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan���s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan���s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan���s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan���s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan���s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan���s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan���s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan���s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan���s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan���s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan���s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

International regional planning educational experience : learnings from Malaysia, Korea and Turkey study trips

In an era of rapidly changing economic, social and environmental conditions, urban and regional planning education must be resilient, innovative and able to deal with the complex political and socio-economic fabric of post-modern cities. As a consequence, urban and regional planning education plays a fundamental role in educating and forming planning practitioners that will be able to tackle such complexity. However, not many tertiary education institutions provide a trans-cultural engagement opportunity for students, where the need to internationalise planning education has been widely recognised worldwide. The aim of this paper is to communicate the findings of three overseas study trips (Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia, Daejeon-Korea, Istanbul and Gallipoli-Turkey) that students of Queensland University of Technology are taken to where these study trips trailed the provision of an innovative tertiary education experience of teaching regional planning in an international context. The findings of the pedagogic analyses of the study reveal that the exposure of students to different planning processes and practices give them a new outlook on what they knew from their own country and provide them with useful insights on international planning issues and cultural differences and barriers.

Researching employment relations : a self-reflexive analysis of a multi-method, school-based project

Drawing on primary data and adjunct material, this article adopts a critical self-reflexive approach to a three-year, Australian Research Council-funded projectthat explored themes around 'employment citizenship'for high school students in Queensland. The article addresses three overlapping areas that reflect some of the central dilemmas and challenges arising through the project- consent in the context of research ethics, questionnaire administration in schools, and focus group research practice. It contributes to the broader methodological literature addressing research with young people by canvassing pragmatic suggestions for future school-based research, and research addressing adolescent employment.

Long range relations : stakeholder engagement in Queensland road construction

This paper presents the historical and contextual background of road construction by state and local government in Queensland. It also highlights some key events that have shaped stakeholder participation in road infrastructure planning and delivery in Queensland. This synthesis was developed from a review of publications, organisational documents and interviews. To set the scene, the factors that shaped road delivery will be discussed.

Three Interventions on culture-led regeneration in Gwanju, Korea

These three interventions, given over a three day period in 2010, concern the proposed multifunctional exhibition hall in Gwanju, Korea. The three interventions cover some theoretical and historical issues, but also consider the practical aspects of such a project.

Tea ceremony and Sukiya : negating social hierarchy

There is a widely held view that architecture is very strongly and even primarily determined by the society and culture rather than geographical, technical, economic or cli-matic factors. This is especially evident in societies where rituals, customs and tradition play a significant role in the design of built forms. One such society was that of Feudal Japan under the rule of samurai warriors. The strictly controlled hierarchical society of Feudal Japan, isolated from the rest of the world for over 250 years, was able to develop the art and architecture borrowed from neighboring older cultures of China and Korea into what is now considered uniquely Japanese. One such architecture is the Sukiya style tea houses where the ritual of tea ceremony took place. This ritual was developed by the tea masters who were Zen monks or the merchants who belonged to the lowest class in the hierarchical feudal society. The Sukiya style developed from 14th to 16th century and became an architectural space that negated all the rules imposed on commoners by the samurai rulers. The tea culture had a major influence on Japanese architecture, the concept of space and aesthetics. It extended into the design of Japanese gardens, clothes, presentation of food, and their manners in day to day life. The focus of this paper is the Japanese ritual of tea ceremony, the architecture of the tea house it inspired, the society responsible for its creation and the culture that promoted its popularity and its continuation into the 21st century.

Women's labor force participation and marriage : the case of Korea

In this paper, we examine the relationship between marital status and female labor force participation in Korea, and argue that marriage remains a major obstacle to young Korean women's employment. We find that an average married woman is much less likely (by 40–60%) to participate in the labor force than a single woman in urban Korea. Further investigation into the participation patterns among married women reveals that labor force participation rate (LFPR) varies with husband's occupation and her own age. Lower LFPR among the young married women is explained by demand-side factors, while relatively higher LFPR among the middle-aged married women is mostly explained by the supply-side factors.