Asset pricing when risk sharing is limited by default: a theoretical framework

We study the asset pricing implications of an endowment economy when agents can default on contracts that would leave them otherwise worse off. We specialize and extend the environment studied by Kocherlakota (1995) and Kehoe and Levine (1993) to make it comparable to standard studies of asset pricillg. We completely charactize efficient allocations for several special cases. We illtroduce a competitive equilibrium with complete markets alld with elldogellous solvency constraints. These solvellcy constraints are such as to prevent default -at the cost of reduced risk sharing. We show a version of the classical welfare theorems for this equilibrium definition. We characterize the pricing kernel, alld compare it with the one for economies without participation constraints : interest rates are lower and risk premia can be bigger depending on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Quantitative examples show that for reasonable parameter values the relevant marginal rates of substitution fali within the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds.

Optimal-state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflationary inertia

This paper examines the output losses caused by disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing mIes are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing mIes and credibility is essential in determining the inflationary inertia. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired leveIs than prices that are substantially higher than the optimal ones. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfect1y credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviation distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be sucessful even when credibility is low, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.

Measuring core inflation as the common trend of prices

In recent years, many central banks have adopted inflation targeting policies starting an intense debate about which measure of inflation to adopt. The literature on core inflation has tried to develop indicators of inflation which would respond only to "significant" changes in inflation. This paper defines a measure of core inflation as the common trend of prices in a multivariate dynamic model, that has, by construction, three properties: it filters idiosyncratic and transitory macro noises, and it leads the future leveI of headline inflation. We also show that the popular trimmed mean estimator of core inflation could be regarded as a proxy for the ideal GLS estimator for heteroskedastic data. We employ an asymmetric trimmed mean estimator to take account of possible skewness of the distribution, and we obtain an unconditional measure of core inflation.

Simulation -based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications (July-2001)

The past decade has wítenessed a series of (well accepted and defined) financial crises periods in the world economy. Most of these events aI,"e country specific and eventually spreaded out across neighbor countries, with the concept of vicinity extrapolating the geographic maps and entering the contagion maps. Unfortunately, what contagion represents and how to measure it are still unanswered questions. In this article we measure the transmission of shocks by cross-market correlation\ coefficients following Forbes and Rigobon's (2000) notion of shift-contagion,. Our main contribution relies upon the use of traditional factor model techniques combined with stochastic volatility mo deIs to study the dependence among Latin American stock price indexes and the North American indexo More specifically, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. From a theoretical perspective, we improve currently available methodology by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor model structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in the series' weights over time. By doing this, we believe that changes and interventions experienced by those five countries are well accommodated by our models which learns and adapts reasonably fast to those economic and idiosyncratic shocks. We empirically show that the time varying covariance structure can be modeled by one or two common factors and that some sort of contagion is present in most of the series' covariances during periods of economical instability, or crisis. Open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons are thoroughly discussed.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Competitidade brasileira nas exportações fase 2: estudo exploratório

O Brasil vem se beneficiando nos últimos anos da expansão do comércio mundial, como mostram os frequentes recordes obtidos pela balança comercial do país. Porém, se as taxas de crescimento das exportações continuarem aumentando no mesmo ritmo nos próximos anos, os diversos gargalos que impactam negativamente o processo exportador brasileiro podem se agravar ainda mais. Baseada em dados coletados de 258 empresas exportadoras brasileiras, a partir de questionário desenvolvido especificamente para tal fim, essa pesquisa exploratória identificou, quantificou e hierarquizou os principais gargalos que diminuem a competitividade das exportações brasileiras. Esses gargalos foram classificados em grupos macroeconômicos, mercadológicos, idiossincráticos, logísticos, burocráticos, legais, tributários, informacionais e institucionais. A pesquisa se diferencia de trabalhos anteriores por ter sido aplicada a um público diretamente envolvido com as atividades e dificuldades do processo de exportação – os profissionais de comércio exterior – e por considerar toda a gama de gargalos que afetam as exportações. Os estudos anteriores foram sempre focados em certos tipos de gargalos.

A systematic component of the jump-risk premium in an AJD model

We develop an affine jump diffusion (AJD) model with the jump-risk premium being determined by both idiosyncratic and systematic sources of risk. While we maintain the classical affine setting of the model, we add a finite set of new state variables that affect the paths of the primitive, under both the actual and the risk-neutral measure, by being related to the primitive's jump process. Those new variables are assumed to be commom to all the primitives. We present simulations to ensure that the model generates the volatility smile and compute the "discounted conditional characteristic function'' transform that permits the pricing of a wide range of derivatives.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Governança da internet no espaço regulatório global: o idiossincrático modelo de gestão da ICANN

O presente trabalho pretende descrever e analisar a evolução institucional da Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), organização responsável pela gestão dos nomes de domínio e protocolos de comunicação entre computadores em rede ao redor do mundo. Iniciando sua trajetória como instituição privada estadunidense e vinculada ao departamento de comércio do mesmo país, a ICANN passa por diversas modificações estruturais ao longo da última década, de forma a englobar representantes de diversos setores sociais em suas atividades. Algumas peculiaridades em sua estrutura que ainda a vinculam aos Estados Unidos, no entanto, são objeto de controvérsia entre aqueles que buscam uma democratização da internet em nível global.

On paternalistic leadership fit: exploring cross-cultural endorsement, leader-follower fit, and the boundary role of organizational culture

Although cross-cultural leadership research has thrived in international business literature, little attention has been devoted to understanding the effectiveness of non-western theories beyond their original contexts. The purpose of this study is to examine the cross-cultural endorsement of paternalistic leadership, an emerging non-western leadership theory, using data from GLOBE project. Using multigroup confirmatory factor analyses we found measurement equivalence of a scale derived from GLOBE’s data, which enabled us to compare the endorsement of paternalistic leadership dimensions across 10 cultural clusters and 55 societies. Our study revealed that there are significant differences in the importance societies give to each dimension, suggesting that paternalism as leadership style is not universally nor homogeneously endorsed. Furthermore, results suggest that different patterns of endorsement of each of these dimensions give rise to idiosyncratic shades of paternalistic leadership across societies. Implications for theory and future research on international business are discussed.

Capital misallocation and mitigating policies

The purpose of this work is to study the role for government in mitigating capital misallocation. We develop an entrepreneurship model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints on production, but can hedge idiosyncratic shocks. Hedging works as a tool for reallocating resources to states in which they are more productively deployed, and can alleviate the effect of the financial frictions and be a counteracting force to capital misallocation. Government incentives to hedging improve workers’ welfare in steady state through an increase in TFP and wages. The intervention leads to a reduction in the rate of return of entrepreneurs and an increase in wealth dispersion. These two effects cause entrepreneurial welfare to decrease.

Variabilidade espacial de atributos do solo e de fatores de erosão em diferentes pedoformas

As formas do relevo podem ser indicadores da variação dos atributos do solo, pois essa variabilidade é causada por pequenas alterações do declive que afetam os processos pedogenéticos bem como o transporte e o armazenamento de água no perfil do solo. O trabalho foi desenvolvido em Catanduva (SP), com o objetivo de caracterizar a variabilidade espacial de atributos do solo e fatores de erosão em diferentes pedoformas sob cultivo de cana-de-açúcar. de acordo com o modelo de Troeh classificou-se as formas do relevo em duas pedoformas, côncava e convexa. Com a utilização de um DGPS levantaram-se as cotas altimétricas, estabelecendo-se uma malha, com intervalos regulares de 50 m, com 270 pontos na pedoforma côncava e 353 pontos na pedoforma convexa, perfazendo um total de 623 pontos, coletados na profundidade de 0,0 - 0,2 m em uma área de 200 ha. em cada ponto da malha foram determinados os atributos químicos do solo, granulometria, espessura do solo e fatores de erosão locais, tais como erosividade (R), erodibilidade (K), fator topográfico (LS), uso e manejo (C), práticas conservacionistas (P), potencial natural de erosão (PNE), perda de solo (A) e risco de erosão (RE). Os dados foram avaliados primeiramente por uma análise estatística exploratória, calculando-se a média, mediana, variância, coeficiente de variação, coeficiente de assimetria, coeficiente de curtose e teste de normalidade. Posteriormente, a dependência espacial foi verificada por meio da técnica de geoestatística utilizando-se semivariogramas. As maiores perdas de solo, risco de erosão e potencial natural de erosão e menor espessura do solo ocorreram na pedoforma convexa, indicando forte dependência espacial com a forma do relevo. A pedoforma côncava proporcionou maior variabilidade espacial, demonstrando que a forma do relevo condiciona padrões diferenciados de variabilidade. A magnitude da variabilidade dos atributos do solo é mais influenciada pela forma do relevo que pela erosão. A espessura do horizonte A+E integrado com a forma do relevo é um indicador de processos erosivos para classe de Argissolos.

Safety Assessment of Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) use in Older People and the Factors Associated with Hospital Admission

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

In-process grinding monitoring by acoustic emission

This work aims to investigate the efficiency of digital signal processing tools of acoustic emission signals in order to detect thermal damages in grinding process. To accomplish such a goal, an experimental work was carried out for 15 runs in a surface grinding machine operating with an aluminum oxide grinding wheel and ABNT 1045. The acoustic emission signals were acquired from a fixed sensor placed on the workpiece holder. A high sampling rate data acquisition system at 2.5 MHz was used to collect the raw acoustic emission instead of root mean square value usually employed. Many statistics have shown effective to detect burn, such as the root mean square (RMS), correlation of the AE, constant false alarm (CFAR), ratio of power (ROP) and mean-value deviance (MVD). However, the CFAR, ROP, Kurtosis and correlation of the AE have been presented more sensitive than the RMS.