906 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

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In a recent paper [1] Reis showed that both the principles of extremum of entropy production rate, which are often used in the study of complex systems, are corollaries of the Constructal Law. In fact, both follow from the maximization of overall system conductivities, under appropriate constraints. In this way, the maximum rate of entropy production (MEP) occurs when all the forces in the system are kept constant. On the other hand, the minimum rate of entropy production (mEP) occurs when all the currents that cross the system are kept constant. In this paper it is shown how the so-called principle of "minimum energy expenditure" which is often used as the basis for explaining many morphologic features in biologic systems, and also in inanimate systems, is also a corollary of Bejan's Constructal Law [2]. Following the general proof some cases namely, the scaling laws of human vascular systems and river basins are discussed as illustrations from the side of life, and inanimate systems, respectively.

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This article presents one approach to addressing the important issue of interdisciplinarity in the primary school mathematics curriculum, namely, through realistic mathematical modelling problems. Such problems draw upon other disciplines for their contexts and data. The article initially considers the nature of modelling with complex systems and discusses how such experiences differ from existing problem-solving activities in the primary mathematics curriculum. Principles for designing interdisciplinary modelling problems are then addressed, with reference to two mathematical modelling problems— one based in the scientific domain and the other in the literary domain. Examples of the models children have created in solving these problems follow. A reflection on the differences in the diversity and sophistication of these models raises issues regarding the design of interdisciplinary modelling problems. The article concludes with suggested opportunities for generating multidisciplinary projects within the regular mathematics curriculum.

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Interactions between small molecules with biopolymers e.g. the bovine serum albumin (BSA protein), are important, and significant information is recorded in the UV–vis and fluorescence spectra of their reaction mixtures. The extraction of this information is difficult conventionally and principally because there is significant overlapping of the spectra of the three analytes in the mixture. The interaction of berberine chloride (BC) and the BSA protein provides an interesting example of such complex systems. UV–vis and fluorescence spectra of BC and BSA mixtures were investigated in pH 7.4 Tris–HCl buffer at 37 °C. Two sample series were measured by each technique: (1) [BSA] was kept constant and the [BC] was varied and (2) [BC] was kept constant and the [BSA] was varied. This produced four spectral data matrices, which were combined into one expanded spectral matrix. This was processed by the multivariate curve resolution–alternating least squares method (MCR–ALS). The results produced: (1) the extracted pure BC, BSA and the BC–BSA complex spectra from the measured heavily overlapping composite responses, (2) the concentration profiles of BC, BSA and the BC–BSA complex, which are difficult to obtain by conventional means, and (3) estimates of the number of binding sites of BC.

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Dealing with the ever-growing information overload in the Internet, Recommender Systems are widely used online to suggest potential customers item they may like or find useful. Collaborative Filtering is the most popular techniques for Recommender Systems which collects opinions from customers in the form of ratings on items, services or service providers. In addition to the customer rating about a service provider, there is also a good number of online customer feedback information available over the Internet as customer reviews, comments, newsgroups post, discussion forums or blogs which is collectively called user generated contents. This information can be used to generate the public reputation of the service providers’. To do this, data mining techniques, specially recently emerged opinion mining could be a useful tool. In this paper we present a state of the art review of Opinion Mining from online customer feedback. We critically evaluate the existing work and expose cutting edge area of interest in opinion mining. We also classify the approaches taken by different researchers into several categories and sub-categories. Each of those steps is analyzed with their strength and limitations in this paper.

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Science has been under attack in the last thirty years, and recently a number of prominent scientists have been busy fighting back. Here, an argument is presented that the `science wars' stem from an unreasonably strict adherence to the reductive method on the part of science, but that weakening this stance need not imply a lapse into subjectivity. One possible method for formalising the description of non-separable, contextually dependent complex systems is presented. This is based upon a quantum-like approach.

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Anomalous dynamics in complex systems have gained much interest in recent years. In this paper, a two-dimensional anomalous subdiffusion equation (2D-ASDE) is considered. Two numerical methods for solving the 2D-ASDE are presented. Their stability, convergence and solvability are discussed. A new multivariate extrapolation is introduced to improve the accuracy. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the schemes and confirm the theoretical analysis.

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An airport is one of the largest and most complex systems in modern society. Observational field studies have been conducted to investigate passenger experiences in, and interactions within, an international airport. Based on these studies, this paper discusses how activities mediate people’s experiences in the airport. For example, moving through the security screening process is discussed from both passenger and staff perspectives. The applied coding scheme ensured research rigor. The findings illustrate that passenger activities are complex and shared, and only partially supported by current terminal design. Thus, this research has the potential to impact on airport design to facilitate passenger flow through airport precincts.

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Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.

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Classrooms of the 21st century are complex systems. They support diverse learners from varied contexts and function in a “messy” bricolage of policy contexts. This complexity is also evident in the nature of teaching and learning deployed in these classrooms. There is also, in current contexts, a general expectation that teachers will support students to construct, rather than simply receive knowledge. This process of constructing knowledge requires a focus on critical thinking in complex social and real world contexts (see also Elen & Clarebout, 2001; Yang, Chang & Hsu 2008). Critical thinking, which involves the identification and evaluation of multiple perspectives when making decisions, is a process of knowing – a tool of wisdom (Kuhn & Udell, 2001). Schommer-Aikens, Bird and Bakken (2010) refer to classrooms that encourage critical thinking as “epistemologically based” in which “the teacher encourages his/her students to look for connections among concepts within the text, with their prior knowledge, and with concepts found in the world beyond themselves” (p. 48).

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In a resource constrained business world, strategic choices must be made on process improvement and service delivery. There are calls for more agile forms of enterprises and much effort is being directed at moving organizations from a complex landscape of disparate application systems to that of an integrated and flexible enterprise accessing complex systems landscapes through service oriented architecture (SOA). This paper describes the deconstruction of an enterprise into business services using value chain analysis as each element in the value chain can be rendered as a business service in the SOA. These business services are explicitly linked to the attainment of specific organizational strategies and their contribution to the attainment of strategy is assessed and recorded. This contribution is then used to provide a rank order of business service to strategy. This information facilitates executive decision making on which business service to develop into the SOA. The paper describes an application of this Critical Service Identification Methodology (CSIM) to a case study.

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Multi-disciplinary approaches to complex problems are becoming more common – they enable criteria manifested in distinct (and potentially conflicting) domains to be jointly balanced and satisfied. In this paper we present airport terminals as a case study which requires multi-disciplinary knowledge in order to balance conflicting security, economic and passenger-driven needs and correspondingly enhance the design, management and operation of airport terminals. The need for a truly multi-disciplinary scientific approach which integrates information, process, people, technology and space domains is highlighted through a brief discussion of two challenges currently faced by airport operators. The paper outlines the approach taken by this project, detailing the aims and objectives of each of seven diverse research programs.

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Presentation about information modelling and artificial intelligence, semantic structure, cognitive processing and quantum theory.

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Inspection of solder joints has been a critical process in the electronic manufacturing industry to reduce manufacturing cost, improve yield, and ensure product quality and reliability. The solder joint inspection problem is more challenging than many other visual inspections because of the variability in the appearance of solder joints. Although many research works and various techniques have been developed to classify defect in solder joints, these methods have complex systems of illumination for image acquisition and complicated classification algorithms. An important stage of the analysis is to select the right method for the classification. Better inspection technologies are needed to fill the gap between available inspection capabilities and industry systems. This dissertation aims to provide a solution that can overcome some of the limitations of current inspection techniques. This research proposes two inspection steps for automatic solder joint classification system. The “front-end” inspection system includes illumination normalisation, localization and segmentation. The illumination normalisation approach can effectively and efficiently eliminate the effect of uneven illumination while keeping the properties of the processed image. The “back-end” inspection involves the classification of solder joints by using Log Gabor filter and classifier fusion. Five different levels of solder quality with respect to the amount of solder paste have been defined. Log Gabor filter has been demonstrated to achieve high recognition rates and is resistant to misalignment. Further testing demonstrates the advantage of Log Gabor filter over both Discrete Wavelet Transform and Discrete Cosine Transform. Classifier score fusion is analysed for improving recognition rate. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system improves performance and robustness in terms of classification rates. This proposed system does not need any special illumination system, and the images are acquired by an ordinary digital camera. In fact, the choice of suitable features allows one to overcome the problem given by the use of non complex illumination systems. The new system proposed in this research can be incorporated in the development of an automated non-contact, non-destructive and low cost solder joint quality inspection system.

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Fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPEs) have gained much interest recently for describing transport dynamics in complex systems that are governed by anomalous diffusion and nonexponential relaxation patterns. However, effective numerical methods and analytic techniques for the FFPE are still in their embryonic state. In this paper, we consider a class of time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equations with a nonlinear source term (TSFFPE-NST), which involve the Caputo time fractional derivative (CTFD) of order α ∈ (0, 1) and the symmetric Riesz space fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ ∈ (1, 2). Approximating the CTFD and RSFD using the L1-algorithm and shifted Grunwald method, respectively, a computationally effective numerical method is presented to solve the TSFFPE-NST. The stability and convergence of the proposed numerical method are investigated. Finally, numerical experiments are carried out to support the theoretical claims.