The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Combinatorial manifolds with complementarity

A simplicial complex is said to satisfy complementarity if exactly one of each complementary pair of nonempty vertex-sets constitutes a face of the complex.

Minimal triangulation, complementarity and projective planes

Brehm and Kuhnel proved that if M-d is a combinatorial d-manifold with 3d/2 + 3 vertices and \ M-d \ is not homeomorphic to Sd then the combinatorial Morse number of M-d is three and hence d is an element of {0, 2, 4, 8, 16} and \ M-d \ is a manifold like a projective plane in the sense of Eells and Kuiper. We discuss the existence and uniqueness of such combinatorial manifolds. We also present the following result: ''Let M-n(d) be a combinatorial d-manifold with n vertices. M-n(d) satisfies complementarity if and only if d is an element of {0, 2, 4, 8, 16} with n = 3d/2 + 3 and \ M-n(d) \ is a manifold like a projective plane''.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

What Drives Venture Capital Fundraising in India: An Empirical Analysis of Systematic and Non-Systematic Factors

In this paper, we develop a consolidated Supply-Demand framework of the Venture Capital (VC) ecosystem for India. Further, we empirically analyze the supply side of this ecosystem to ascertain the influence of systematic (macro) and non-systematic (micro) factors on VC fundraising. At the macro level, our results indicate that relatively strong fundamentals of the Indian economy in the past decade as compared with the severe recessionary tendencies in the developed economies have been critical in determining the aggregate volume of VC fundraising. Among the micro factors, past performance and reputation of the individual fund managers have been instrumental in determining their fund raising potential.

La reinserción social de los ex-presidiarios en la Argentina de las primeras décadas del siglo XX : algunos comentarios biográficos sobre Jorge H. Frías, fundador del Patronato de Liberados y Excarcelados de la Capital Federal

Resumen: Este trabajo pretende avanzar sobre una problemática escasamente abordada por la historiografía jurídica y social argentina: la reinserción social de los egresados de las prisiones. Así, partiendo de la utilidad que tienen para la historiografía los estudios biográficos y de instituciones penitenciarias y post-penitenciarias, analizaremos algunos aspectos de la labor profesional de Jorge H. Frías, distinguido jurista, presidente de la Cámara de Apelaciones en lo Criminal y Correccional y fundador en 1918 de la primera institución de reinserción social de la Argentina: el Patronato de Liberados y Excarcelados de la Capital Federal. Esperamos que este breve trabajo contribuya a alentar la realización de otros estudios sobre diferentes aspectos del universo penitenciario argentino (directores de presidios, viajeros penitenciarios, congresos penitenciarios nacionales e internacionales, revistas de los funcionarios de prisiones, etc.) que aún hoy en día permanecen desconocidos.