790 resultados para Bundas and accessibility
Resumo:
Templated, macroporous Mg-Al hydrotalcites synthesised via alkali-free co-precipitation exhibit superior performance in the transesterification of C4 -C18 triglycerides for biodiesel production, with rate-enhancement increasing with alkyl chain length. Promotion reflects improved diffusion of bulky triglycerides and accessibility of active sites within the hierarchical macropore-micropore architecture. © 2012 The Royal Society of Chemistry.
Resumo:
A family of mesoporous SBA-15 supported H3PW12O40 (HPW) catalysts were synthesized by wet-impregnation and compared with fumed silica analogues for the solventless isomerization of α-pinene under mild conditions. Structural and acidic properties of supported HPW materials were characterized by powder XRD, HRTEM, XPS, TGA, N2 porosimetry, DRIFTS, and ammonia and propylamine chemisorption and TPD. The high area, mesoporous SBA-15 architecture facilitates the formation of highly dispersed (isolated or low dimensional) HPW clusters and concomitant high acid site densities (up to 0.54 mmol g−1) relative to fumed silica wherein large HPW crystallites are formed even at low HPW loadings. α-Pinene exhibits a volcano dependence on HPW loading over the SBA-15 support due to competition between the number and accessibility of acid sites to the non-polar reactant, with the superior acid site accessibility for HPW/SBA-15 conferring a 10-fold rate enhancement with respect to HPW/fumed silica and pure HPW. Monocyclic limonene and terpinolene products are favoured over polycyclic camphene and β-pinene by weaker polyoxometallate analogues over SBA-15.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to describe and explain working adult undergraduate students' perspectives on persistence in college in order to address the applicability of retention theory to a specific group of college students. Retention of college students is a major concern in higher education where persistence rates have continued to decline for the last 16 years and changing student demographics have influenced enrollment patterns. ^ A qualitative research design was used. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with nine working adult undergraduate students. The participants were selected to include diversity in age, race/ethnicity, family roles, career/work levels, college majors, and educational histories. ^ Triangulation was performed on data from the interviews, participant data forms, and a research journal. Open and axial coding were used to generate emerging themes. Member checking was used to verify the interpretation of the participants' perspectives. A peer reviewer corroborated the data analysis. Three major themes emerged from the data which explained how the students stayed motivated, engaged in learning, and managed the institutional aspects of college. ^ Five conclusions were drawn from the findings of this study. First, working adult students described their core experience of college as both positive and negative, creating tensions and often conflicts that influenced their persistence. Second, persistence factors associated with working adult students included personal aspects, such as having clear career/life goals, self management skills, and supportive relationships; learning aspects, such as interactive teaching methods, connections to prior learning, and relevance to career/life goals; and institutional aspects, such as customer service orientation of staff, flexibility of policies and procedures, and convenient access to information. Third, current retention theory was applicable to working adult students. However, working adult students described their experience of academic and social integration differently from that of traditional college students found in the literature. Fourth, findings from this study supported the developmental components of the Adult Persistence in Learning model (MacKinnon-Slaney, 1994). Finally, the study findings indicated a clearly active role required of the institution in the persistence of working adult students by providing flexibility and accessibility in procedures and services. ^
Resumo:
As traffic congestion exuberates and new roadway construction is severely constrained because of limited availability of land, high cost of land acquisition, and communities' opposition to the building of major roads, new solutions have to be sought to either make roadway use more efficient or reduce travel demand. There is a general agreement that travel demand is affected by land use patterns. However, traditional aggregate four-step models, which are the prevailing modeling approach presently, assume that traffic condition will not affect people's decision on whether to make a trip or not when trip generation is estimated. Existing survey data indicate, however, that differences exist in trip rates for different geographic areas. The reasons for such differences have not been carefully studied, and the success of quantifying the influence of land use on travel demand beyond employment, households, and their characteristics has been limited to be useful to the traditional four-step models. There may be a number of reasons, such as that the representation of influence of land use on travel demand is aggregated and is not explicit and that land use variables such as density and mix and accessibility as measured by travel time and congestion have not been adequately considered. This research employs the artificial neural network technique to investigate the potential effects of land use and accessibility on trip productions. Sixty two variables that may potentially influence trip production are studied. These variables include demographic, socioeconomic, land use and accessibility variables. Different architectures of ANN models are tested. Sensitivity analysis of the models shows that land use does have an effect on trip production, so does traffic condition. The ANN models are compared with linear regression models and cross-classification models using the same data. The results show that ANN models are better than the linear regression models and cross-classification models in terms of RMSE. Future work may focus on finding a representation of traffic condition with existing network data and population data which might be available when the variables are needed to in prediction.
Resumo:
In the conventional marketing mix, a focus on physical distribution handicaps the use of "place" in planning marketing strategy for hospitality services. To replace it, the article introduces a new group of variables called "performance," which focus instead on availability and accessibility. The author does not intend to offer detailed descriptions of specific variables but rather to suggest associations and relationships among issues and options in marketing hospitality services that may not previously have been recognized, and to address the diverse segments of the hospitality services industry in general, including lodging, food, beverage, private club, cruise ship, and travel-destination services.
Resumo:
The recognition of the food as determinant and health-disease process etching requires new explanations and interventions of the food and nutrition policy action and demand health care model based on the completeness of the actions and focused on health promotion. This study, characterized as research-action of interventionist character, sought to develop strategies to support the transverse insertion of healthy eating promotion in professionals practices a core of support for the health of the family and a family health strategy Unit in the city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, from the analysis of perceptions and work processes of these teams. Several methodological strategies were adopted: Dialectical Hermeneutical Circle, direct observation, reflective and Thematic Meetings Workshop "Rethinking the educational practices for promoting healthy eating". For data logging, search diaries - SD were used and moments. The analysis of procedural form occurred in conjunction with research participants, in constant movement of reflection-action-reflection, based on hermeneutics-dialectic. About the results, in relation to the promotion of health, showed the following insights: health promotion and disease prevention-related harms; health promotion related to quality of life and well-being, in its various dimensions; health promotion as a responsibility of the State; health promotion related to the actions of health education; health promotion as an expression of efficaciousness and accessibility to health services. Regarding healthy nutrition, predominated the perceptions relating to nutritional aspects. With regard to food and nutritional education - FNE, it was observed a predominance of perception of FNE as information, guidance and knowledge transfer for changes of dietary practices. As regards the working process, it was observed that among the actions for health promotion, educational activities predominate, such as lectures, conversations, groups that mostly occur in fragmentary form, without joint planning teams, varying according to the professionals and the moment of work in which they are carried out. The results pointed to the need for reorganization of the work processes, in the context of intra-and intersectoral coordination and the construction of new technologies, such as: Health project of the territory – HPT, Unique Therapeutic Project- UPT, Expanded Clinic and educational practices, Shared with active teaching and learning methodologies. From the results we believe that it is necessary to "thought reform", from changes in vocational training and strengthening of the permanent education spaces, whereas the complexity that involves feeding, food and nutrition education and health promotion. The reformation of thought must be articulate and closely tied to the production of knowledge and practices that encourage intersectoral approach, the transversality, dialogue and democratic and supportive attitude, based on the collective construction of know-how. We hope that this study can contribute with reflections and initiatives that encourage building practices that promote healthy eating in primary health care, in terms of completeness of the care and the attainment of food security and nutrition.
Resumo:
This study reports recommendations for a tactile and graphic wayfinding system aiming to offer more orientability and mobility for visually impaired people (blindness and low vision) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN), Parnamirim Campus. It was necessary to focus on visual impaired people and approach concepts like orientation and accessibility at the built environment. In order to provide the comprehension of a complex social phenomenon and preserve the meaningful characteristics of the events, this research has developed a single case study in which elements of Post Occupation Evaluation have been used. Its purpose was to allow not only a technical analysis, but also the user perception about the space in use. The chosen tool to collect the user’s opinions and considerations was the Walk Together Method. The collected and analyzed information has demonstrated that, although Parnamirim Campus has implemented some interventions in relation to the spatial accessibility, they are still not enough to create an environment which arranges safety and autonomy for the visual impaired people and the other ones who attend there. This study suggests that it happened because the engineering interventions at the Campus have been based on Brazilian technical standards NBR 9050:2004, which is proper for the physical impaired people, but it does not offer enough information to respond to all the specific needs demanded by all the classifications of visual impairment.
Resumo:
This study reports recommendations for a tactile and graphic wayfinding system aiming to offer more orientability and mobility for visually impaired people (blindness and low vision) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN), Parnamirim Campus. It was necessary to focus on visual impaired people and approach concepts like orientation and accessibility at the built environment. In order to provide the comprehension of a complex social phenomenon and preserve the meaningful characteristics of the events, this research has developed a single case study in which elements of Post Occupation Evaluation have been used. Its purpose was to allow not only a technical analysis, but also the user perception about the space in use. The chosen tool to collect the user’s opinions and considerations was the Walk Together Method. The collected and analyzed information has demonstrated that, although Parnamirim Campus has implemented some interventions in relation to the spatial accessibility, they are still not enough to create an environment which arranges safety and autonomy for the visual impaired people and the other ones who attend there. This study suggests that it happened because the engineering interventions at the Campus have been based on Brazilian technical standards NBR 9050:2004, which is proper for the physical impaired people, but it does not offer enough information to respond to all the specific needs demanded by all the classifications of visual impairment.
Resumo:
A pesquisa considera a difusão de celulares e smartphones e as consequências deste fato em possibilidades para o ensino-aprendizagem. Aparatos de comunicação sempre estiveram ligados ao processo de ensino-aprendizagem. Entretanto, com o desenvolvimento mais intenso, nas últimas décadas, das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), essa relação vem ganhando novos contornos. Surge a Internet, a evolução das máquinas computacionais e, recentemente, a explosão dos dispositivos móveis, fornecendo novos produtos e serviços convergentes. Nesse contexto, celulares e smartphones tem sido utilizados e recomendados para apoio e complemento do processo de ensino-aprendizagem: a chamada Aprendizagem Móvel. Esse ramo cresce devido à rápida expansão e barateamento dessas tecnologias na sociedade. Para verificar cientificamente essa relação foi realizada uma pesquisa de natureza qualitativa, do tipo exploratória, com dois projetos de Aprendizagem Móvel em andamento no Brasil, o Palma – Programa de Alfabetização na Língua Materna e o Escola Com Celular – ECC. Assim, a partir dos dados provenientes da pesquisa, identificamos alguns aspectos relacionados ao uso de celulares e smartphones para o processo de ensino-aprendizagem que contribuem na compreensão desse campo ainda em construção no Brasil. O uso desses dispositivos como suporte para processos de ensino-aprendizagem nos projetos estudados é delineado pelos aspectos tecnologia, dispositivo, público e contexto e novas tecnologias e Aprendizagem Móvel. O aspecto dispositivo desdobra-se em dimensões como disseminação, multifuncionalidade e acessibilidade que embasam os projetos, ainda favorece características apontadas como importantes para o processo de ensino-aprendizagem na atualidade, como mobilidade e portabilidade. Os projetos pesquisados demonstram potencial e metodologia adequada aos contextos para os quais foram criados e aplicados. Entretanto, a pesquisa indicou que ao mesmo tempo em que celulares e smartphones representam o ápice da convergência tecnológica e são considerados extremamente populares e acessíveis na sociedade contemporânea, com possibilidades concretas como nos projetos estudados, não conseguiram conquistar uma posição sólida como suporte para o ensino-aprendizagem. Tal indicação se deve, de acordo com o corpus, à carência de alguns fatores, como: fomento, as práticas se mostram extremamente dependentes da iniciativa pública ou privada para sua extensão e continuidade; sensibilização para o uso de tecnologias disponíveis, não consideram o aparelho dos próprios alunos e um planejamento que inclua, capacite e incentive o uso desses dispositivos. Além disso, a pesquisa também destaca a necessidade de uma visão crítica do uso e papel da tecnologia nesses processos.
Resumo:
L’estradiol (E2) est une hormone femelle qui joue un rôle essentiel, à la fois dans la régulation et dans la détermination de certaines conditions physiologiques in vivo, telle que la différenciation et la prolifération cellulaire. Lorsque l’E2 est donné en supplément, par exemple dans le cas de thérapie hormonale, deux effets sont observés, un effet génomique et un effet non-génomique, de par son interaction avec les récepteurs à œstrogène du noyau ou de la membrane cellulaire, respectivement. L’effet non-génomique est plus difficile à étudier biologiquement parce que l’effet se produit sur une échelle de temps extrêmement courte et à cause de la nature hydrophobe de l’E2 qui réduit sa biodisponibilité et donc son accessibilité aux cellules cibles. C’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de développer des systèmes d’administration de l’E2 qui permettent de n’étudier que l’effet non-génomique de l’œstrogène. Une des stratégies employée consiste à greffer l’E2 à des macromolécules hydrophiles, comme de l’albumine de sérum bovin (BSA) ou des dendrimères de type poly(amido)amine, permettant de maintenir l’interaction de l’E2 avec les récepteurs d’œstrogène de la membrane cellulaire et d’éviter la pénétration de l’E2 dans le noyau des cellules. Toutefois, ces systèmes macromolécules-E2 sont critiquables car ils sont peu stables et l’E2 peut se retrouver sous forme libre, ce qui affecte sa localisation cellulaire. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc de développer de nouvelles plateformes fonctionnalisées avec de l’E2 en utilisant les approches de synthèses ascendantes et descendantes. Le but de ces plateformes est de permettre d’étudier le mécanisme de l’effet non-génomique de l’E2, ainsi que d’explorer des applications potentielles dans le domaine biomédical. L’approche ascendante est basée sur un ligand d’E2 activé, l’acide 17,α-éthinylestradiol-benzoïque, attaché de façon covalente à un polymère de chitosan avec des substitutions de phosphorylcholine (CH-PC-E2). L’estradiol est sous forme de pro-drogue attachée au polymère qui s’auto-assembler pour former un film. L’effet biologique de la composition chimique du film de chitosan-phosphorylcholine a été étudié sur des cellules endothéliales. Les films de compositions chimiques différentes ont préalablement été caractérisés de façon physicochimique. La topographie de la surface, la charge de surface, ainsi que la rhéologie des différents films contenant 15, 25, ou 40% molaires de phosphorylcholine, ont été étudiés par microscopie à force atomique (AFM), potentiel zêta, résonance plasmonique de surface et par microbalance à cristal de quartz avec dissipation (QCM-D). Les résultats de QCM-D ont montré que plus la part molaire en phosphorylcholine est grande moins il y a de fibrinogène qui s’adsorbe sur le film de CH-PC. Des cellules humaines de veine ombilicale (HUVECs) cultivées sur des films de CH-PC25 et de CH-PC40 forment des amas cellulaire appelés sphéroïdes au bout de 4 jours, alors que ce n’est pas le cas lorsque ces cellules sont cultivées sur des films de CH-PC15. L’attachement de l’estradiol au polymère a été caractérisé par plusieurs techniques, telles que la résonance magnétique nucléaire de proton (1H NMR), la spectroscopie infrarouge avec transformée de Fourier à réfraction totale atténuée (FTIR-ATR) et la spectroscopie UV-visible. La nature hydrogel des films (sa capacité à retenir l’eau) ainsi que l’interaction des films avec des récepteurs à E2, ont été étudiés par la QCM-D. Des études d’imagerie cellulaires utilisant du diacétate de diaminofluoresceine-FM ont révélé que les films hydrogels de CH-PC-E2 stimulent la production d’oxyde nitrique par les cellules endothéliales, qui joue un rôle protecteur pour le système cardiovasculaire. L’ensemble de ces études met en valeur les rôles différents et les applications potentielles qu’ont les films de type CH-PC-E2 et CH-PC dans le cadre de la médecine cardiovasculaire régénérative. L’approche descendante est basée sur l’attachement de façon covalente d’E2 sur des ilots d’or de 2 μm disposés en rangées et espacés par 12 μm sur un substrat en verre. Les ilots ont été préparés par photolithographie. La surface du verre a quant à elle été modifiée à l’aide d’un tripeptide cyclique, le cRGD, favorisant l’adhésion cellulaire. L’attachement d’E2 sur les surfaces d’or a été suivi et confirmé par les techniques de SPR et de QCM-D. Des études d’ELISA ont montré une augmentation significative du niveau de phosphorylation de la kinase ERK (marqueur important de l’effet non-génomique) après 1 heure d’exposition des cellules endothéliales aux motifs alternant l’E2 et le cRGD. Par contre lorsque des cellules cancéreuses sont déposées sur les surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2, ces cellules ne croissent pas, ce qui suggère que l’E2 n’exerce pas d’effet génomique. Les résultats de l’approche descendante montrent le potentiel des surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2 pour l’étude des effets non-génomiques de l’E2 dans un modèle in vitro.
Resumo:
This research assesses the impact of user charges in the context of consumer choice to ascertain how user charges in healthcare impact on patient behaviour in Ireland. Quantitative data is collected from a subset of the population in walk-in Urgent Care Clinics and General Practitioner surgeries to assess their responses to user charges and whether user charges are a viable source of part-funding healthcare in Ireland. Examining the economic theories of Becker (1965) and Grossman (1972), the research has assessed the impact of user charges on patient choice in terms of affordability and accessibility in healthcare. The research examined a number of private, public and part-publicly funded healthcare services in Ireland for which varying levels of user charges exist depending on patients’ healthcare cover. Firstly, the study identifies the factors affecting patient choice of privately funded walk-in Urgent Care Clinics in Ireland given user charges. Secondly, the study assesses patient response to user charges for a mainly public or part-publicly provided service; prescription drugs. Finally, the study examines patients’ attitudes towards the potential application of user charges for both public and private healthcare services when patient choice is part of a time-money trade-off, convenience choice or preference choice. These services are valued in the context of user charges becoming more prevalent in healthcare systems over time. The results indicate that the impact of user charges on healthcare services vary according to socio-economic status. The study shows that user charges can disproportionately affect lower income groups and consequently lead to affordability and accessibility issues. However, when valuing the potential application of user charges for three healthcare services (MRI scans, blood tests and a branded over a generic prescription drug), this research indicates that lower income individuals are willing to pay for healthcare services, albeit at a lower user charge than higher income earners. Consequently, this study suggests that user charges may be a feasible source of part-financing Irish healthcare, once the user charge is determined from the patients’ perspective, taking into account their ability to pay.
Resumo:
L’estradiol (E2) est une hormone femelle qui joue un rôle essentiel, à la fois dans la régulation et dans la détermination de certaines conditions physiologiques in vivo, telle que la différenciation et la prolifération cellulaire. Lorsque l’E2 est donné en supplément, par exemple dans le cas de thérapie hormonale, deux effets sont observés, un effet génomique et un effet non-génomique, de par son interaction avec les récepteurs à œstrogène du noyau ou de la membrane cellulaire, respectivement. L’effet non-génomique est plus difficile à étudier biologiquement parce que l’effet se produit sur une échelle de temps extrêmement courte et à cause de la nature hydrophobe de l’E2 qui réduit sa biodisponibilité et donc son accessibilité aux cellules cibles. C’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de développer des systèmes d’administration de l’E2 qui permettent de n’étudier que l’effet non-génomique de l’œstrogène. Une des stratégies employée consiste à greffer l’E2 à des macromolécules hydrophiles, comme de l’albumine de sérum bovin (BSA) ou des dendrimères de type poly(amido)amine, permettant de maintenir l’interaction de l’E2 avec les récepteurs d’œstrogène de la membrane cellulaire et d’éviter la pénétration de l’E2 dans le noyau des cellules. Toutefois, ces systèmes macromolécules-E2 sont critiquables car ils sont peu stables et l’E2 peut se retrouver sous forme libre, ce qui affecte sa localisation cellulaire. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc de développer de nouvelles plateformes fonctionnalisées avec de l’E2 en utilisant les approches de synthèses ascendantes et descendantes. Le but de ces plateformes est de permettre d’étudier le mécanisme de l’effet non-génomique de l’E2, ainsi que d’explorer des applications potentielles dans le domaine biomédical. L’approche ascendante est basée sur un ligand d’E2 activé, l’acide 17,α-éthinylestradiol-benzoïque, attaché de façon covalente à un polymère de chitosan avec des substitutions de phosphorylcholine (CH-PC-E2). L’estradiol est sous forme de pro-drogue attachée au polymère qui s’auto-assembler pour former un film. L’effet biologique de la composition chimique du film de chitosan-phosphorylcholine a été étudié sur des cellules endothéliales. Les films de compositions chimiques différentes ont préalablement été caractérisés de façon physicochimique. La topographie de la surface, la charge de surface, ainsi que la rhéologie des différents films contenant 15, 25, ou 40% molaires de phosphorylcholine, ont été étudiés par microscopie à force atomique (AFM), potentiel zêta, résonance plasmonique de surface et par microbalance à cristal de quartz avec dissipation (QCM-D). Les résultats de QCM-D ont montré que plus la part molaire en phosphorylcholine est grande moins il y a de fibrinogène qui s’adsorbe sur le film de CH-PC. Des cellules humaines de veine ombilicale (HUVECs) cultivées sur des films de CH-PC25 et de CH-PC40 forment des amas cellulaire appelés sphéroïdes au bout de 4 jours, alors que ce n’est pas le cas lorsque ces cellules sont cultivées sur des films de CH-PC15. L’attachement de l’estradiol au polymère a été caractérisé par plusieurs techniques, telles que la résonance magnétique nucléaire de proton (1H NMR), la spectroscopie infrarouge avec transformée de Fourier à réfraction totale atténuée (FTIR-ATR) et la spectroscopie UV-visible. La nature hydrogel des films (sa capacité à retenir l’eau) ainsi que l’interaction des films avec des récepteurs à E2, ont été étudiés par la QCM-D. Des études d’imagerie cellulaires utilisant du diacétate de diaminofluoresceine-FM ont révélé que les films hydrogels de CH-PC-E2 stimulent la production d’oxyde nitrique par les cellules endothéliales, qui joue un rôle protecteur pour le système cardiovasculaire. L’ensemble de ces études met en valeur les rôles différents et les applications potentielles qu’ont les films de type CH-PC-E2 et CH-PC dans le cadre de la médecine cardiovasculaire régénérative. L’approche descendante est basée sur l’attachement de façon covalente d’E2 sur des ilots d’or de 2 μm disposés en rangées et espacés par 12 μm sur un substrat en verre. Les ilots ont été préparés par photolithographie. La surface du verre a quant à elle été modifiée à l’aide d’un tripeptide cyclique, le cRGD, favorisant l’adhésion cellulaire. L’attachement d’E2 sur les surfaces d’or a été suivi et confirmé par les techniques de SPR et de QCM-D. Des études d’ELISA ont montré une augmentation significative du niveau de phosphorylation de la kinase ERK (marqueur important de l’effet non-génomique) après 1 heure d’exposition des cellules endothéliales aux motifs alternant l’E2 et le cRGD. Par contre lorsque des cellules cancéreuses sont déposées sur les surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2, ces cellules ne croissent pas, ce qui suggère que l’E2 n’exerce pas d’effet génomique. Les résultats de l’approche descendante montrent le potentiel des surfaces présentant des motifs d’E2 pour l’étude des effets non-génomiques de l’E2 dans un modèle in vitro.
Resumo:
En el marco de la escala de accesibilidad (Givenness Hierarchy), este trabajo presenta el mecanismo en chino que lleva a cabo la misma función anafórica que desempeña el artículo definido en español y analiza desde una perspectiva contrastiva las aportaciones que contribuye la anáfora nominal a la construcción del discurso. Se llega a la conclusión de que a pesar de algunas diferencias en los comportamientos concretos, en ambas lenguas la anáfora favorece a la organización del discurso manteniendo la coherencia discursiva y diversificando las expresiones.
Resumo:
The aim of this paper is to explore the role and activities of nurse practitioners (NPs) working in long-term care (LTC) to understand concepts of access to primary care for residents. Utilizing the "FIT" framework developed by Penchanksy and Thomas, we used a directed content analysis method to analyze data from a pan-Canadian study of NPs in LTC. Individual and focus group interviews were conducted at four sites in western, central and eastern regions of Canada with 143 participants, including NPs, RNs, regulated and unregulated nursing staff, allied health professionals, physicians, administrators and directors and residents and family members. Participants emphasized how the availability and accessibility of the NP had an impact on access to primary and urgent care for residents. Understanding more about how NPs affect access in Canadian LTC will be valuable for nursing practice and healthcare planning and policy and may assist other countries in planning for the introduction of NPs in LTC settings to increase access to primary care.
Resumo:
This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.