El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Desarrollo de un estado de la cuestión acerca de las interacciones entre el control de gestión y el aprendizaje organizacional.

Las organizaciones en la actualidad deben encontrar diferentes maneras de sobrevivir en un tiempo de rápida transformación. Uno de los mecanismos usados por las empresas para adaptarse a los cambios organizacionales son los sistemas de control de gestión, que a su vez permiten a las organizaciones hacer un seguimiento a sus procesos, para que la adaptabilidad sea efectiva. Otra variable importante para la adaptación es el aprendizaje organizacional siendo el proceso mediante el cual las organizaciones se adaptan a los cambios del entorno, tanto interno como externo de la compañía. Dado lo anterior, este proyecto se basa en la extracción de documentación soporte valido, que permita explorar las interacciones entre estos dos campos, los sistemas de control de gestión y el aprendizaje organizacional, además, analizar el impacto de estas interacciones en la perdurabilidad organizacional. ​

Tipos de lógica utilizadas en la toma de decisiones estratégicas de marketing

Para el administrador el proceso de la toma de decisiones es uno de sus mayores retos y responsabilidades, ya que en su desarrollo se debe definir el camino más acertado en un sin número de alternativas, teniendo en cuenta los obstáculos sociales, políticos y económicos del entorno empresarial. Para llegar a la decisión adecuada no hay que perder de vista los objetivos y metas propuestas, además de tener presente el proceso lógico, detectando, analizando y demostrando el porqué de esa elección. Consecuentemente el análisis que propone esta investigación aportara conocimientos sobre los tipos de lógica utilizados en la toma de decisiones estratégicas al administrador para satisfacer las demandas asociadas con el mercadeo para que de esta manera se pueda generar y ampliar eficientemente las competencia idóneas del administrador en la inserción internacional de un mercado laboral cada vez mayor (Valero, 2011). A lo largo de la investigación se pretende desarrollar un estudio teórico para explicar la relación entre la lógica y la toma de decisiones estratégicas de marketing y como estos conceptos se combinan para llegar a un resultado final. Esto se llevara a cabo por medio de un análisis de planes de marketing, iniciando por conceptos básicos como marketing, lógica, decisiones estratégicas, dirección de marketing seguido de los principios lógicos y contradicciones que se pueden llegar a generar entre la fundamentación teórica

La disonancia cognitiva y trampa de la memoria en decisiones de Inversión: caso colombiano

Este documento es el resultado de una investigación bajo el enfoque de Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, disciplina relevante en el mundo financiero desde el 2002 y que hasta el momento poco se ha investigado en Colombia. Esta difiere del supuesto tradicional de la racionalidad de los individuos en la toma de decisiones financieras, ya que pueden ser influenciadas por sesgos cognitivos y emocionales que la teoría ortodoxa no tiene en cuenta en sus supuestos. Esta investigación busca indagar, desde el punto de vista conceptual y mediante el análisis de resultados de estudio de campo con operadores del mercado bursátil colombiano, sobre la posible presencia de elementos comportamentales en las decisiones de inversión. Los sesgos que se evaluaron fueron: disonancia cognitiva, heurístico de disponibilidad y sesgo de confirmación. Para la recolección de fuentes primarias, una encuesta fue enviada a los operadores Colombianos, categorizados en operadores con experiencia y operadores jóvenes. Después del filtro, 142 encuestas fueron seleccionadas para el análisis. Los principales hallazgos fueron que los jóvenes son más propensos a experimentar disonancia cognitiva y heurístico de disponibilidad y en ambas categorías, los sesgos analizados influencian medianamente la toma de decisiones de inversión.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a status quo gamble when diversification among gambles is not feasible. This behavioral pattern cannot be accommodated by major theories of choice under ambiguity.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Functional disconnection of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal system disrupts choice reaction time performance: implications for attentional function

This series of experiments investigated the role of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal circuit in attention, using a continuous performance task of sustained and spatially divided visual attention. A unilateral excitotoxic lesion of the medial prefrontal cortex and a contralateral lesion of the medial caudate-putamen were used to "disconnect" the circuit. Control groups of rats with unilateral lesions of either structure were tested in the same task. Behavioral controls included testing the effects of the disconnection lesion on Pavlovian discriminated approach behavior. The disconnection lesion produced a significant reduction in the accuracy of performance in the attentional task but did not impair Pavlovian approach behavior or affect locomotor or motivational variables, providing evidence for the involvement of this medial prefrontal corticostriatal system in aspects of visual attentional function.

Features of the Atlantic diet and its healthiness: Theory and evidence from social science

In order to understand diets, why and how they change and can be influenced, it is important to understand how food choices are made. The has been the subject of, considerable study within many of the social science disciplines and the humanities. The paper draws on the theoretical and empirical work of psychologists, sociologists, economists, market researchers, anthropologists, geographers and historians to understand better the forces behind food choice, derive some general empirical messages from the literature, to shed light on food choice in a European context and to address the question of whether there is, or has been, a recognisably Atlantic diet. The paper proceeds to analyse the characteristics of the food consumption patterns in the Atlantic diet countries, examines whether their food consumption patterns are homogenous (i.e. similar across the countries of this group), whether they are specific (i.e. different from the ones in other country groups) and finally evaluates the nutritional composition of the Atlantic diet against the WHO/FAO recommendations for a healthy and wholesome diet.

Torque in mooring chain. Part 1: Background and theory

Chain in both its forms - common (or stud-less) and stud-link - has many engineering applications. It is widely used as a component in the moorings of offshore floating systems, where its ruggedness and corrosion resistance make it an attractive choice. Chain exhibits some interesting behaviour in that when straight and subject to an axial load it does not twist or generate any torque, but if twisted or loaded when in a twisted condition it behaves in a highly non-linear manner, with the torque dependent upon the level of twist and axial load. Clearly an understanding of the way in which chains may behave and interact with other mooring components (such as wire rope, which also exhibits coupling between axial load and generated torque) when they are in service is essential. However, the sizes of chain that are in use in offshore moorings (typical bar diameters are 75 mm and greater) are too large to allow easy testing. This paper, which is in two parts, aims to address the issues and considerations relevant to torque in mooring chain. The first part introduces a frictionless theory that predicts the resultant torques and 'lift' in the links as non-dimensionalized functions of the angle of twist. Fortran code is presented in an Appendix, which allows the reader to make use of the analysis. The second part of the paper presents results from experimental work on both stud-less (41 mm) and stud-link (20.5 and 56 mm) chains. Torsional data are presented in both 'constant twist' and 'constant load' forms, as well as considering the lift between the links.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

A behavioral comparison of male and female adults with high functioning autism spectrum conditions

Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) affect more males than females in the general population. However, within ASC it is unclear if there are phenotypic sex differences. Testing for similarities and differences between the sexes is important not only for clinical assessment but also has implications for theories of typical sex differences and of autism. Using cognitive and behavioral measures, we investigated similarities and differences between the sexes in age- and IQ-matched adults with ASC (high-functioning autism or Asperger syndrome). Of the 83 (45 males and 38 females) participants, 62 (33 males and 29 females) met Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) cut-off criteria for autism in childhood and were included in all subsequent analyses. The severity of childhood core autism symptoms did not differ between the sexes. Males and females also did not differ in self-reported empathy, systemizing, anxiety, depression, and obsessive-compulsive traits/symptoms or mentalizing performance. However, adult females with ASC showed more lifetime sensory symptoms (p = 0.036), fewer current socio-communication difficulties (p = 0.001), and more self-reported autistic traits (p = 0.012) than males. In addition, females with ASC who also had developmental language delay had lower current performance IQ than those without developmental language delay (p<0.001), a pattern not seen in males. The absence of typical sex differences in empathizing-systemizing profiles within the autism spectrum confirms a prediction from the extreme male brain theory. Behavioral sex differences within ASC may also reflect different developmental mechanisms between males and females with ASC. We discuss the importance of the superficially better socio-communication ability in adult females with ASC in terms of why females with ASC may more often go under-recognized, and receive their diagnosis later, than males.

Relevance of sampling schemes in light of Ruelle's linear response theory

We reconsider the theory of the linear response of non-equilibrium steady states to perturbations. We �rst show that by using a general functional decomposition for space-time dependent forcings, we can de�ne elementary susceptibilities that allow to construct the response of the system to general perturbations. Starting from the de�nition of SRB measure, we then study the consequence of taking di�erent sampling schemes for analysing the response of the system. We show that only a speci�c choice of the time horizon for evaluating the response of the system to a general time-dependent perturbation allows to obtain the formula �rst presented by Ruelle. We also discuss the special case of periodic perturbations, showing that when they are taken into consideration the sampling can be �ne-tuned to make the de�nition of the correct time horizon immaterial. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results in terms of strategies for analyzing the outputs of numerical experiments by providing a critical review of a formula proposed by Reick.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Theory building with system dynamics: topic and research contributions

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including the articles "Closing the Loop: Promoting Synergies with other Theory Building Approaches to Improve System Dynamics Practice," by Birgit Kopainsky and Luis Luna-Reyes, and "On improving dynamic decision-making: Implications from multiple-process cognitive theory," by Bent Bakken.