Repeated Agenda Setting and the Unanimous Approval of Bad Policies

This paper addresses the puzzle of why legislation, even highly inefficient legislation, may pass with overwhelming majorities. We model a egislature in which the same agenda setter serves for two periods, showing how he can exploit a legislature (completely) in the first period by romising future benefits to legislators who support him. In equilibrium, large majority of legislators vote for the first-period proposal because a ote in favor maintains the chance for membership in the minimum winning coalition in the future. The model thus generates situations in which egislators approve policies by large majorities, or even unanimously, that enefit few, or even none, of them. The results are robust: some institutional arrangements, such as super-majority rules or sequential voting, imit but do not eliminate the agenda setter's power to exploit the legislature, and other institutions such as secret voting do not limit his power.

No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Neither Bad Apple nor Bad Barrel: How the Societal Context Impacts Unethical Behavior in Organizations

Every time another corporate scandal captures media headlines, the 'bad apple vs. bad barrel' discussion starts anew. Yet this debate overlooks the influence of the broader societal context on organizational behavior. In this article, we argue that misbehaviors of organizations (the 'barrels') and their members (the 'apples') cannot be addressed properly without a clear understanding of their broader context (the 'larder'). Whereas previously, a strong societal framework dampened the practical application of the Homo economicus concept (business actors as perfectly rational and egocentric utility-maximizing agents without any moral concern), specialization, individualization and globalization led to a business world disembedded from broader societal norms. This emancipated business world promotes a literal interpretation of Homo economicus among business organizations and their members. Consequently, we argue that the first step toward 'healthier' apples and barrels is to sanitize the larder, that is, adapt the framework in which organizations and their members evolve.Chaque fois qu'un nouveau scandale fait la une des médias, la question de savoir si le problème se situe au niveau des individus (des 'pommes isolées') ou au niveau des organisations (les 'caisses de pommes') refait surface. Ce débat tend néanmoins à sous-estimer l'influence du contexte sociétal plus large sur le comportement dans les organisations. Dans cet article, nous soutenons l'idée que les scandales éthiques dans les organisations ou parmi leurs membres ne peuvent être compris correctement sans une vision plus précise de leur contexte plus large (la 'cave à pommes'). Si dans le passé un contexte sociétal fort permettait d'adoucir les applications pratiques de l'Homo economicus (qui considère l'acteur économique comme un agent parfaitement rationnel et égocentrique cherchant à maximiser son utilité sans réflexion morale), l'individualisation et la globalisation ont conduit à un monde économique désencastré et déconnecté des normes sociales plus larges. Ce monde économique autonome promouvoit une interprétation littérale de l'Homo economicus parmi les entreprises et leurs employés. Il en résulte que le premier pas vers des pommes moins pourries passe par un assainissement de la cave, c'est-à-dire l'adoption d'un cadre socio-normatif qui permet un recadrage du contexte dans lequel les organisations économiques et leurs acteurs agissent.

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells in melanoma: can we revert bad into good?

Tumor-infiltrating plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) promote an immunosuppressive milieu that drives tumor growth in melanoma. This phenomenon typically results from the lack of appropriate pDC activation signals in the tumor microenvironment, but it is also actively controlled by tumor cells, which have evolved strategies to inhibit type I IFN production by pDCs. In this issue, Camisaschi et al. identify a new mechanism in which tumors avoid type I IFN production by triggering LAG-3-dependent activation of pDCs. Combination therapies that restore pDC functionality and trigger innate activation to produce type I IFN should be envisaged to induce effective antitumor immunity.

Workforce Planning News - Edition 5 (PDF 159 KB)

Apr-04

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Smoking causes mouth cancer, PHA warns

Mouth cancer awareness week begins on the 13 - 20 November. With this in mind the Public Health Agency is urging everyone to be aware of the signs and symptoms of mouth cancer and is encouraging all smokers thinking about stopping smoking to make the decision to stop today.In Northern Ireland 195 people were diagnosed with mouth cancer in 2009. The disease causes one death every five hours in the UK and yet it is one of the least well-known cancers. Smoking and excess alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of developing mouth cancer, which can occur in or on any part of the mouth, tongue, lips, neck and throat. In its very early stages, mouth cancer can be easy to ignore. Most people with mouth cancer have no early symptoms at all, but others may have:an ulcer in the mouth or on the lip that won't heal; constant pain or soreness; red or white patches in the mouth;a lump on the lip, tongue or in the neck; bad breath; unexplained bleeding in the mouth; numbness in the mouth; loose teeth.The earlier the disease is caught, the better. Survival rates rise to 90 per cent if the cancer is treated before it has spread. Gerry Bleakney, Head of Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement, PHA, said: "Certain lifestyle choices can increase an individual's risk of developing mouth cancer. Tobacco is considered to be the main cause of mouth cancer, with three in four cases being linked to smoking. Excess alcohol consumption is also a known factor, with those who both smoke and drink excessively being up 30 times more likely to be at risk. "Mouth cancer and the treatment required can be traumatic for the patient as this may affect functions such as speech, chewing and swallowing. The positive news is that stopping smoking is associated with a rapid reduction in the risk of oral cancers. Regular trips to the dentist are also a must because half of all mouth cancer cases are detected by dentists."I would encourage everyone who is thinking about quitting to log on to our Want 2 Stop website www.want2stop.info and order a 'Quit Kit' free of charge. Alternatively contact the Smokers' Helpline on 0808 812 8008. "Health Minister Edwin Poots said: "Smoking is the single greatest cause of preventable illness and premature death in Northern Ireland.It is a major risk factor for oral cancer, as well as coronary heart disease, strokes and other diseases of the circulatory system. Approximately 2,300 people die each year in Northern Ireland from smoking related illnesses. Quitting smoking is the single most effective step people can take to improve their long term health."A key objective of the Department's new ten-year tobacco control strategy, due to be published next month,is to prevent people from starting to smoke. Funding provided by the Department for smoking cessation services has resulted in around 650 such services being made available in Northern Ireland in a range of settings, including pharmacies, GP surgeries and community centres. These services have helped almost 80,000 smokers to set a quit date between 2008/09 and 2010/11."The Minister added: "It is also important for people to look after their oral health by regularly attending the dentist for check-ups, as any problems can be picked up and treated at an early stage."

Inequalities in old age - old news or new debate: Presentations

On October 20th, 2010, CARDI hosted an event entitled��'Inequalities in old age - old news or new debate?’. The event marked the launch of a CARDI funded research report Inequalities in Old Age: the impact of the recession on older people in Ireland, North and South��and the launch of a discussion paper prepared for CARDI by Dr. Maria Pierce and Dr.��Virpi Timonen, Trinity College Dublin��Theories of Ageing and Approaches to Welfare in Ireland, North and South [summary]. The event also featured a number of other presentations. Please find a selection of the presentations from the day below:Theories of Ageing: Lenses for Understanding, Signposts for Reforming Social Protection in Old Age by Dr Virpi Timonen, Director of SPARC and Dr Maria Pierce, Research Fellow, Trinity College Dublin.Inequalities, Pensions and the Recession by Prof Paddy Hillyard, Queen’s University Belfast and Dr Demi Patsios, Policy Research Consultant, Dr Francesca Lundstr̦m, Research Consultant.Pensions and Older Women by Dr Aine N�_ L̩ime, Programme Co-ordinator, ICSG (Irish Centre for Social Gerontology), NUI Galway.����

Good bug, bad bug: in the case of enteric inflammatory disease does the epithelium decide?

Many studies demonstrate that intestinal inflammation is either initiated or exaggerated by a component of the normal microbiota, most likely commensal bacteria or products derived from these organisms. We review the nature of human inflammatory bowel disease, the evidence for the involvement of the normal bacterial flora in these disorders and the relevance of maintaining the integrity of the epithelial barrier. Moreover, we, and others, have shown abnormal mitochondria structure in tissue resections from patients with inflammatory bowel disease and tissues from rodents that demonstrated psychological stress-induced increases in epithelial permeability. Thus, we also consider the possibility that a defect in epithelial mitochondrial function would predispose an individual to respond to their commensal bacteria flora - no longer considering them as a beneficial passive inhabitant, but rather perceiving them as a threatening and pro-inflammatory stimulus. In support of this postulate, we discuss our recent findings from an in vitro model showing that the human colon-derived T84 cell line exposed to the metabolic stressor, dinitrophenol, and the non-pathogenic, non-invasive, Escherichia coli (strain HB101) display a loss of barrier function, increased signal transduction and increased production of the chemokine, interleukin 8.

Neurologie [News in neuroloey 2014].

In 2014, breastfeeding during maternal antiepileptic therapy seems to be safe for the children and can be recommended. Intravenous thrombolysis by Alteplase improves the outcome after a stroke if administered within 4.5 hours and it is also recommended in elderly population over 80 years. ProSavin genic therapy for Parkinson disease is under investigation. The Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) has an analgesic effect in neuropathic pain as well as an antidepressant effect. Antagonists of calcitonin gene-related peptide can have a beneficial role in migraine prevention. Diagnostic biomarker panels for Alzheimer disease are under investigation. Oral teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (BG-12) for relapsing multiple sclerosis treatment are now available in Switzerland.

News from compositions, the R package

The R-package “compositions”is a tool for advanced compositional analysis. Its basicfunctionality has seen some conceptual improvement, containing now some facilitiesto work with and represent ilr bases built from balances, and an elaborated subsys-tem for dealing with several kinds of irregular data: (rounded or structural) zeroes,incomplete observations and outliers. The general approach to these irregularities isbased on subcompositions: for an irregular datum, one can distinguish a “regular” sub-composition (where all parts are actually observed and the datum behaves typically)and a “problematic” subcomposition (with those unobserved, zero or rounded parts, orelse where the datum shows an erratic or atypical behaviour). Systematic classificationschemes are proposed for both outliers and missing values (including zeros) focusing onthe nature of irregularities in the datum subcomposition(s).To compute statistics with values missing at random and structural zeros, a projectionapproach is implemented: a given datum contributes to the estimation of the desiredparameters only on the subcompositon where it was observed. For data sets withvalues below the detection limit, two different approaches are provided: the well-knownimputation technique, and also the projection approach.To compute statistics in the presence of outliers, robust statistics are adapted to thecharacteristics of compositional data, based on the minimum covariance determinantapproach. The outlier classification is based on four different models of outlier occur-rence and Monte-Carlo-based tests for their characterization. Furthermore the packageprovides special plots helping to understand the nature of outliers in the dataset.Keywords: coda-dendrogram, lost values, MAR, missing data, MCD estimator,robustness, rounded zeros

The Limits of Discrete Time Repeated Games:Some Notes and Comments

This paper studies the limits of discrete time repeated games with public monitoring. We solve and characterize the Abreu, Milgrom and Pearce (1991) problem. We found that for the "bad" ("good") news model the lower (higher) magnitude events suggest cooperation, i.e., zero punishment probability, while the highrt (lower) magnitude events suggest defection, i.e., punishment with probability one. Public correlation is used to connect these two sets of signals and to make the enforceability to bind. The dynamic and limit behavior of the punishment probabilities for variations in ... (the discount rate) and ... (the time interval) are characterized, as well as the limit payo¤s for all these scenarios (We also introduce uncertainty in the time domain). The obtained ... limits are to the best of my knowledge, new. The obtained ... limits coincide with Fudenberg and Levine (2007) and Fudenberg and Olszewski (2011), with the exception that we clearly state the precise informational conditions that cause the limit to converge from above, to converge from below or to degenerate. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Random Pub- lic Monitoring, Moral Hazard, Stochastic Processes.