Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.

Speaker diarization : "who spoke when"

Speaker diarization is the process of annotating an input audio with information that attributes temporal regions of the audio signal to their respective sources, which may include both speech and non-speech events. For speech regions, the diarization system also specifies the locations of speaker boundaries and assign relative speaker labels to each homogeneous segment of speech. In short, speaker diarization systems effectively answer the question of ‘who spoke when’. There are several important applications for speaker diarization technology, such as facilitating speaker indexing systems to allow users to directly access the relevant segments of interest within a given audio, and assisting with other downstream processes such as summarizing and parsing. When combined with automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, the metadata extracted from a speaker diarization system can provide complementary information for ASR transcripts including the location of speaker turns and relative speaker segment labels, making the transcripts more readable. Speaker diarization output can also be used to localize the instances of specific speakers to pool data for model adaptation, which in turn boosts transcription accuracies. Speaker diarization therefore plays an important role as a preliminary step in automatic transcription of audio data. The aim of this work is to improve the usefulness and practicality of speaker diarization technology, through the reduction of diarization error rates. In particular, this research is focused on the segmentation and clustering stages within a diarization system. Although particular emphasis is placed on the broadcast news audio domain and systems developed throughout this work are also trained and tested on broadcast news data, the techniques proposed in this dissertation are also applicable to other domains including telephone conversations and meetings audio. Three main research themes were pursued: heuristic rules for speaker segmentation, modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates, and modelling uncertainty in eigenvoice speaker modelling. The use of heuristic approaches for the speaker segmentation task was first investigated, with emphasis placed on minimizing missed boundary detections. A set of heuristic rules was proposed, to govern the detection and heuristic selection of candidate speaker segment boundaries. A second pass, using the same heuristic algorithm with a smaller window, was also proposed with the aim of improving detection of boundaries around short speaker segments. Compared to single threshold based methods, the proposed heuristic approach was shown to provide improved segmentation performance, leading to a reduction in the overall diarization error rate. Methods to model the uncertainty in speaker model estimates were developed, to address the difficulties associated with making segmentation and clustering decisions with limited data in the speaker segments. The Bayes factor, derived specifically for multivariate Gaussian speaker modelling, was introduced to account for the uncertainty of the speaker model estimates. The use of the Bayes factor also enabled the incorporation of prior information regarding the audio to aid segmentation and clustering decisions. The idea of modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates was also extended to the eigenvoice speaker modelling framework for the speaker clustering task. Building on the application of Bayesian approaches to the speaker diarization problem, the proposed approach takes into account the uncertainty associated with the explicit estimation of the speaker factors. The proposed decision criteria, based on Bayesian theory, was shown to generally outperform their non- Bayesian counterparts.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

CASNS - A heuristic algorithm for the nesting of irregular-shaped sheet-metal blanks

This article reports on the design and implementation of a computer-aided sheet nesting system (CASNS) for the nesting of two-dimensional irregular-shaped sheet-metal blanks on a given sheet stock or coil stock. The system is designed by considering several constraints of sheet-metal stamping operations, such as bridge width and grain orientation, and design requirements such as maximizing the strength of the part hen subsequent bending is involved, minimization of scrap, and economic justification for'a single or multiple station operation. Through many practical case studies, the system proves its efficiency, effectiveness and usefulness.

Estimation Of concrete resistance To chloride-ion penetration based On water accessible porosity and unit weight Of concrete

To ensure better concrete quality and long-term durability, there has been an increasing focus in recent years on the development of test methods for quality control of concrete. This paper presents a study to evaluate the effect of water accessible porosity and oven-dry unit weight on the resistance of concrete to chloride-ion penetration. Based on the experimental results and regression analyses, empirical relationships of the charge passed (ASTM C 1202) and chloride migration coefficient (NT Build 492) versus the water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight of the concrete are established. Using basic physical properties of water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight which can be easily determined, total charge passed and migration coefficient of the concrete can be estimated for quality control and for estimating durability of concrete.

A UKF-based estimation strategy for actuator fault detection of UASs

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

Spatiotemporal modelling in estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soil

Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.

Gradual training of cascaded shape regression for facial landmark localization and pose estimation

Facial landmarks play an important role in face recognition. They serve different steps of the recognition such as pose estimation, face alignment, and local feature extraction. Recently, cascaded shape regression has been proposed to accurately locate facial landmarks. A large number of weak regressors are cascaded in a sequence to fit face shapes to the correct landmark locations. In this paper, we propose to improve the method by applying gradual training. With this training, the regressors are not directly aimed to the true locations. The sequence instead is divided into successive parts each of which is aimed to intermediate targets between the initial and the true locations. We also investigate the incorporation of pose information in the cascaded model. The aim is to find out whether the model can be directly used to estimate head pose. Experiments on the Annotated Facial Landmarks in the Wild database have shown that the proposed method is able to improve the localization and give accurate estimates of pose.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.

Estimation of disability weights on malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省现患恶性肿瘤残疾权重的测量]

Objective To determine stage-specific and average disability weights (DWs) of malignant neoplasm and provide support and evidence for study on burden of cancer and policy development in Shandong province. Methods Health status of each cancer patient identified during the cancer prevalence survey in Shandong, 2007 was investigated. In line with the GBD methodology in estimating DWs, the disability extent of every case was classified and evaluated according to the Six-class Disability Classification version and then the stage-specific weights and average DWs with their 95 % confidence intervals were calculated, using SAS software. Results A total of 11 757 cancer cases were investigated and evaluated. DWs of specific stage of therapy, remission, metastasis and terminal of all cancers were 0.310, 0.218, 0.450 and 0.653 respectively. The average DW of all cancers was 0.317(95 % CI:0.312-0.321). Weights of different stage and different cancer varied significantly, while no significant differences were found between males and females. DWs were found higher (>0.4) for liver cancer, bone cancer, lymphoma and pancreas cancer. Lower DWs (<0.3) were found for breast cancer, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, ovarian cancer, larynx cancer, mouth and oropharynx cancer. Conclusion Stage-specific and average DWs for various cancers were estimated based on a large sample size survey. The average DWs of 0.317 for all cancers indicated that 1/3 healthy year lost for each survived life year of them. The difference of DWs between different cancer and stage provide scientific evidence for cancer prevention strategy development. Abstract in Chinese 目的 测算各种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重,为山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究及肿瘤防治对策制定提供参考依据. 方法 在山东省2007年恶性肿瘤现患调查中对所有恶性肿瘤患者的健康状况进行调查,参考全球疾病负担研究的方法 ,利用六级社会功能分级标准对患者残疾状况进行分级和赋值,分别计算20种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重及其95%CI. 结果 共调查恶性肿瘤患者11757例,所有恶性肿瘤治疗期、恢复期、转移期和晚期的残疾权重分别为0.310、0.218、0.450和0.653,平均残疾权重为0.317(95%CI:0.312～0.321).不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别显著,性别间差异无统计学意义.肝癌、骨癌、淋巴瘤和胰腺癌平均残疾权重较高(>0.4),乳腺癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、卵巢癌、喉癌和口咽部癌症相对较低(<0.3). 结论 山东省恶性肿瘤平均残疾权重为0.317,即恶性肿瘤患者每存活1年平均损失近1/3个健康生命年;不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别为肿瘤防治对策的制定具有重要意义.