Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Data Governance and Automated Marketing – A Case Study of Expected Benefits of Organizing Data Governance in an ICT Company

This research is looking to find out what benefits employees expect the organization of data governance gains for an organization and how it benefits implementing automated marketing capabilities. Quality and usability of the data are crucial for organizations to meet various business needs. Organizations have more data and technology available what can be utilized for example in automated marketing. Data governance addresses the organization of decision rights and accountabilities for the management of an organization’s data assets. With automated marketing it is meant sending a right message, to a right person, at a right time, automatically. The research is a single case study conducted in Finnish ICT-company. The case company was starting to organize data governance and implementing automated marketing capabilities at the time of the research. Empirical material is interviews of the employees of the case company. Content analysis is used to interpret the interviews in order to find the answers to the research questions. Theoretical framework of the research is derived from the morphology of data governance. Findings of the research indicate that the employees expect the organization of data governance among others to improve customer experience, to improve sales, to provide abilities to identify individual customer’s life-situation, ensure that the handling of the data is according to the regulations and improve operational efficiency. The organization of data governance is expected to solve problems in customer data quality that are currently hindering implementation of automated marketing capabilities.

Interdependence of Macroeconomics Variables, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility in Latin America

This thesis examines the interdependence of macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and stock market volatility in Latin America between 2000 and 2015. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru were chosen as the sample markets, while inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, oil and gold were chosen as the sample macroeconomic variables. Bivariate VAR (1) model was applied to examine the mean return spillovers between the variables, whereas GARCH (1, 1) – BEKK model was applied to capture the volatility spillovers. The sample was divided into two smaller sub-periods, where the first sub-period covers from 2000 to 2007, and the second sub-period covers from 2007 to 2015. The empirical results report significant shock transmissions and volatility spillovers between inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, gold, oil and the selected markets, which suggests interdependence between the variables.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Globalization of pharmaceutical R&D. Pharmaceutical R&D governance forms in People's Republic of China

Yrityksen selviytyminen ja menestyminen ovat riippuvaisia sen kyvystä innovoida, luoda tietoa ja hyödyntää tietämystä ja keksintöjä (Dunk ja Kilgore 2001). Yrityksen menestyminen erityisesti korkean teknologian alalla on siten suoraan riippuvainen sen T&T:stä, johon tehdyt investoinnit tuovat merkittäviä taloudellisia etuja yritykselle uusien tuotteiden, palveluiden ja prosessien muodossa (McEvily ja Chakravarthy 1999). Teknologinen etumatka ja sen tuotteistaminen innovatiivisiksi tarjoamiksi mahdollistaa monopolististen etujen saavuttamisen yrityksen kansainvälisessä kilpailussa (Lall 1977). Tämä kaltainen kilpailuetu voidaan saavuttaa yrityksen kyvyllä yhdistää maantieteellisesti hajautettu T&T:nsä tehokkaaksi verkostoksi (Porter 1986). Boehen (2008) mukaan T&T:n globalisoitumista voidaan johtaa eri hallintömuodoilla: T&T:n kansainvälistymisellä, T&T:n ulkomaille sijoittamisella ja T&T ulkomaille ulkoistamisella. T&T:n globalisoituminen on osa 2000-luvun taloudellista muutosta, ja sille on esitetty useita vaikuttavia tekijöitä, kuten kustannuserot, työvoimaresurssit, erityisosaamiskeskukset, paikallinen teknologia osaaminen ja kohdemarkkinoiden potentiaali (bardhan 2006; Norwood, ym. 2006; von Zedtwitz ja Gassmann 2002). Tutkimuksen on osoitettu eroavan tuotekehityksestä ja eri tekijöiden on osoitettu vaikuttavan niihin (von Zedtwitz ja Gassmann 2002; Leifer ja Triscari 1987). Samoin T&T on osoitettu olevan jatkumo perustavanlaatuisesta soveltavaan ja lääkekehityksen muodostavan vastaavan T&T jatkumon (Lall 1980; Iansiti 1993), jonka yksittäiset osat vaikuttavat sen hallintomuotoon. Tutkimus esittää eri tekijöitä voivan hyödyntää hallintomuodosta riippuen. Tätä tutkimusta varten tutkija haastatteli lääketeollisuuden johtajia Kiinassa vahvistaakseen tai hylätäkseen eri tekijöitä ja niiden suhdetta lääketeollisen T&T:n hallintomuotoihin. Markkinoiden todettiin olevan ensisijainen tekijä mutta myös kustannuserojen, insentiivien, työvoimaresurssien ja erityisosaamiskeskusten merkitys T&T:n globalisoitumiseen vaikuttavina tekijöinä vahvistettiin yhdessä perusvaatimusten ja riskitekijöiden kanssa. Tutkimuksessa vahvistetaan myös lääketeollisen T&T-jatkumon vaikutus ja esitetään viitekehys hallintomuodoille.

Globalization of pharmaceutical R&D Pharmaceutical R&D governance forms in People's Republic of China

Firm's survival and success, which are dependent on its ability to innovate, to create knowledge and to capitalize on inventions and know-how, is in essence directly linked to its R&D process (Dunk and Kilgore 2001). Especially in technology driven industries, such as the pharmaceuticals, there are significant positive returns to R&D investments through introduction of new or improved products and services (McEvily and Chakravarthy 1999). Technological lead and its transformation to innovative products as fruits of corporate R&D can be seen as monopolistic advantage that helps enterprises to compete in today’s market (Lall 1977). This competitive advantage can be derived from corporation's ability to integrate its activities across geographic locations (Porter 1986). According to Boehe (2008) globalization of R&D can executed with different governance forms: R&D internationalization, R&D offshoring or R&D offshore outsourcing. Globalization of R&D is intervened with the changes in global economy of the 21st century. Some studies argue for its influencing factors to be access to vast skilled labor pools and centers of excellence (Bardhan 2006). Other studies indicate the R&D cost differentials between countries to be the major expected benefit (Norwood et al. 2006). Von Zedtwitz and Gassmann (2002) presented benefits as divided to accessing markets and customers or to accessing local science and technology. This study proposes that based on governance form distinct factor derived benefits can be capitalized. To corroborate or refute factors and their relations on R&D globalization governance forms, an empirical study based on expert interviews of pharmaceutical directors was conducted in the People's Republic of China. The market was found to be the major influencing factor. Local requirements and adaptation were corroborated as factors connected with markets. Furthermore, influencing factors, such as labour, centers of excellence, cost, financial incentives were corroborated together with conditional and risk factors. Furthermore this research argues that the globalization of pharmaceutical R&D is dependent on the financial, scientific and operational requirements of the drug discovery stage. And thus establishes the influence of drug discovery's stages continuum on pharmaceutical R&D globalization. Finally, a R&D globalization governance form decision framework is proposed based on the frameworks presented in literature and author's corroborated empirical findings.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Returns (copy) showing the quantities of each article transported on the Welland Canal during the year 1859-1861 and the amount of tolls collected thereon for each year

Returns (copy) showing the quantities of each article transported on the Welland Canal during the year 1859-1861 and the amount of tolls collected thereon for each year. The title on this document is General Return 1859, but this has been crossed out in pencil within the document and the years have been changed (Port Robinson), 1859-1861.

Investors Impacts on Currency Returns: Theory versus Practice.

Rapport de recherche

Immigrant Returns to Education and Experience: Analysis of Skill Discounting in Canada.

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ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances

This paper derives the ARMA representation of integrated and realized variances when the spot variance depends linearly on two autoregressive factors, i.e., SR SARV(2) models. This class of processes includes affine, GARCH diffusion, CEV models, as well as the eigenfunction stochastic volatility and the positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. We also study the leverage effect case, the relationship between weak GARCH representation of returns and the ARMA representation of realized variances. Finally, various empirical implications of these ARMA representations are considered. We find that it is possible that some parameters of the ARMA representation are negative. Hence, the positiveness of the expected values of integrated or realized variances is not guaranteed. We also find that for some frequencies of observations, the continuous time model parameters may be weakly or not identified through the ARMA representation of realized variances.

Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical multivariate skewness and kurtosis criteria are then compared to simulation-based estimate of their expected value under the hypothesized distribution. Special cases considered include testing multivariate normal, Student t; normal mixtures and stable error models. In the Gaussian case, finite-sample versions of the standard multivariate skewness and kurtosis tests are derived. To do this, we exploit simple, double and multi-stage Monte Carlo test methods. For non-Gaussian distribution families involving nuisance parameters, confidence sets are derived for the the nuisance parameters and the error distribution. The procedures considered are evaluated in a small simulation experi-ment. Finally, the tests are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995.