UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Making connections: engineering and language issues in teaching english for specific purposes

Tese apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Línguas, Literaturas e Culturas

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Decision-making process of Nova Executivos’ students

Field lab: Consumer insights

Importance of decision-making in a purchasing context – DPS Case Study

This work project has the objective of exploring the importance of making good decisions on supplier selection, so that the purchasing department can contribute to the success of a company. For that it is presented a short bibliography review of the latest insights that were found relevant, on the subjects of purchasing, technology, outsourcing, supplier selection and decision-making techniques. For a better understating on how to deal with a decision-making situation, a case study is also presented: Digital Printing Solutions (DPS) is a Portuguese company that provides complete and integrated printing solutions and has been planning to contract a software supplier. DPS has no formal supplier-selection model and it has to choose between 2 suppliers. The case study was solved using the M-MACBETH software. I have found that complex decisions-making situations can be easily overcome by using the M-MACBETH decision model. Moreover, the usage of a model, instead of decision that follows no formal procedure, provides the decision maker with insights that can be useful to negotiate with the supplier.

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

Breastfeeding: making the difference in the development, health and nutrition of term and preterm newborns

Breastfeeding is the natural and safe way of feeding small infants, providing nutritional, immunological, psychological and economic recognized and unquestionable advantages. These qualities are especially important in premature infants, because of their vulnerability. Despite highly desirable, there is, in general, little success in breastfeeding preterm infants, especially in special care neonatal units. There are evidences that a high supportive hospital environment, with an interdisciplinary team, makes possible to these infants to be breastfed. In this article, the authors present an up-to-date review about the components of human milk and its unique characteristics, as well as describes aspects that make the breast milk particularly suitable for feeding the premature newborn.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Safety classification using GIS in decision-making process to define priority road interventions

Given the current economic situation of the Portuguese municipalities, it is necessary to identify the priority investments in order to achieve a more efficient financial management. The classification of the road network of the municipality according to the occurrence of traffic accidents is fundamental to set priorities for road interventions. This paper presents a model for road network classification based on traffic accidents integrated in a geographic information system. Its practical application was developed through a case study in the municipality of Barcelos. An equation was defined to obtain a road safety index through the combination of the following indicators: severity, property damage only and accident costs. In addition to the road network classification, the application of the model allows to analyze the spatial coverage of accidents in order to determine the centrality and dispersion of the locations with the highest incidence of road accidents. This analysis can be further refined according to the nature of the accidents namely in collision, runoff and pedestrian crashes.

Interacting and making personalized recommendations of places of interest to tourists

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 353

Normal aging and decision-making: a systematic review of the literature of the last 10 years

Objective Conduct a systematic review to investigate whether healthy elderly have deficits in the decision-making process when compared to the young. Methods We performed a systematic search on SciELO, Lilacs, PsycINFO, Scopus and PubMed database with keywords decision making and aging (according to the description of Mesh terms) at least 10 years. Results We found nine studies from different countries, who investigated 441 young and 377 elderly. All studies used the IOWA Gambling Task as a way of benchmarking the process of decision making. The analysis showed that 78% of the articles did not have significant differences between groups. However, 100% of the studies that assessed learning did find relevant differences. Furthermore, studies that observed the behavior of individuals in the face of losses and gains, 60% of articles showed that the elderly has more disadvantageous choices throughout the task. Conclusion: The consulted literature showed no consensus on the existence of differences in performance of the decision-making process between old and young, but it is observed that the elderly has deficits in learning and a tendency to fewer advantageous choices.

Digital literacy, technology and social inclusion: making sense of one-to-one computer programmes around the world

This book was produced in the scope of a research project entitled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren”. This study was conducted between May 2010 and May 2013 at the Communication and Society Research Centre, University of Minho, Portugal and it was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008).

Foreword [to Digital literacy, technology and social inclusion: making sense of one-to-one computer programmes around the world]

(Excerto) In times past, learning to read, write and do arithmetic was to get on course to earn the “writ of emancipation” in society. These skills are still essential today, but are not enough to live in society. Reading and critically understanding the world we live in, with all its complexity, difficulties and challenges, require not only other skills (learning to search for and validate information, reading with new codes and grammar, etc) but, to a certain extent, also metaskills, matrixes and mechanisms that are transversal to the different and new literacies, are necessary. They are needed not just to interpret but equally to communicate and participate in the little worlds that make up our everyday activities as well as, in a broader sense, in the world of the polis, which today is a global world.