Do U.S. and Colombian macro factors improve the forecasting ability of unrestricted VAR models of the local term structure of interest rate?

Este estudio empírico compara la capacidad de los modelos Vectores auto-regresivos (VAR) sin restricciones para predecir la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés en Colombia -- Se comparan modelos VAR simples con modelos VAR aumentados con factores macroeconómicos y financieros colombianos y estadounidenses -- Encontramos que la inclusión de la información de los precios del petróleo, el riesgo de crédito de Colombia y un indicador internacional de la aversión al riesgo mejora la capacidad de predicción fuera de la muestra de los modelos VAR sin restricciones para vencimientos de corto plazo con frecuencia mensual -- Para vencimientos de mediano y largo plazo los modelos sin variables macroeconómicas presentan mejores pronósticos sugiriendo que las curvas de rendimiento de mediano y largo plazo ya incluyen toda la información significativa para pronosticarlos -- Este hallazgo tiene implicaciones importantes para los administradores de portafolios, participantes del mercado y responsables de las políticas

Capital social e ações conjuntas: um estudo de caso no arranjo produtivo local de vinhos de altitude catarinense

The general goal of this study was to analyze the relations between the agents’ social capital and joint actions developed by the Cluster of wine produced at the high altitudes of Santa Catarina. This group is made up of 43 agents: one governing agent, 26 support agents and 16 winemakers. This descriptive and exploratory study uses data from qualitative and quantitative approaches. During the exploratory phase, a documental analysis was carried out, as well as semi-structured interviews. The data collection tool used to gather information concerning the social capital and joint actions was the semi-structured questionnaire, and this data gathering was conducted through field research using a structured interview with the selected agents from November 16 to November 26, 2015. The results of this study show a good social capital, which reflects on the joint actions done by the agents. Among the variables of social capital, trust shows a great level among the Cluster agents, followed by good levels concerning commitment and involvement, information share, rules and sanctions, horizontality and authority and improvement. As a result, it has created a nice level of involvement and effectiveness of joint actions, highlighting events organization, joint participation at fairs and events, marketing campaigns, development of products and processes, and human resources improvement. There is a small group of agents who show a strong social capital and a proper environment to expand this capital throughout the network. However, the evaluation concerning reciprocity and density represents only one third of the possibilities of this group, and it happens especially because of the geographical distance between the agents who are part of the Cluster. The main limitation of this study was the trouble trying to map the whole agent group before applying the questionnaires and identifying the responsible people in each of the support agents to inform everything correctly. It is suggested that these questionnaires be carried out with other Clusters as well as in the future in order to have a temporal assessment of this study.

Clima psicológico e desempenho organizacional nas secções de uma autarquia local

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre na especificidade de Psicologia Social e das Organizações

Encapsulation of Local Anesthetic Bupivacaine in Biodegradable Poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) Nanospheres: Factorial Design, Characterization and Cytotoxicity Studies

Local anesthetic agents cause temporary blockade of nerve impulses productiong insensitivity to painful stimuli in the area supplied by that nerve. Bupivacaine (BVC) is an amide-type local anesthetic widely used in surgery and obstetrics for sustained peripheral and central nerve blockade. in this study, we prepared and characterized nanosphere formulations containing BVC. To achieve these goals, BVC loaded poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) nanospheres (NS) were prepared by nanopreciptation and characterized with regard to size distribution, drug loading and cytotoxicity assays. The 2(3-1) factorial experimental design was used to study the influence of three different independent variables on nanoparticle drug loading. BVC was assayed by HPLC, the particle size and zeta potential were determined by dynamic light scattering. BVC was determined using a combined ultrafiltration-centrifugation technique. The results of optimized formulations showed a narrow size distribution with a polydispersivity of 0.05%, an average diameter of 236.7 +/- 2.6 nm and the zeta potential -2.93 +/- 1,10 mV. In toxicity studies with fibroblast 3T3 cells, BVC loaded-PLGA-NS increased cell viability, in comparison with the effect produced by free BVC. In this way, BVC-loaded PLGA-NS decreased BVC toxicity. The development of BVC formulations in carriers such as nanospheres could offer the possibility of controlling drug delivery in biological systems, prolonging the anesthetic effect and reducing toxicity.

Trade Shocks and Local Labor Markets' Linkages: Theory and Evidence

In the past few years, there has been a concern among economists and policy makers that increased openness to international trade affects some regions in a country more than others. Recent research has found that local labor markets more exposed to import competition through their initial employment composition experience worse outcomes in several dimensions such as, employment, wages, and poverty. Although there is evidence that regions within a country exhibit variation in the intensity with which they trade with each other and with other countries, trade linkages have been ignored in empirical analyses of the regional effects of trade, which focus on differences in employment composition. In this dissertation, I investigate how local labor markets' trade linkages shape the response of wages to international trade shocks. In the second chapter, I lay out a standard multi-sector general equilibrium model of trade, where domestic regions trade with each other and with the rest of the world. Using this benchmark, I decompose a region's wage change resulting from a national import cost shock into a direct effect on prices, holding other endogenous variables constant, and a series of general equilibrium effects. I argue the direct effect provides a natural measure of exposure to import competition within the model since it summarizes the effect of the shock on a region's wage as a function of initial conditions given by its trade linkages. I call my proposed measure linkage exposure while I refer to the measures used in previous studies as employment exposure. My theoretical analysis also shows that the assumptions previous studies make on trade linkages are not consistent with the standard trade model. In the third chapter, I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy in 1991--at the beginning of a period of trade liberalization--to perform a series of experiments. In each of them, I reduce the Brazilian import cost by 1 percent in a single sector and I calculate how much of the cross-regional variation in counterfactual wage changes is explained by exposure measures. Over this set of experiments, employment exposure explains, for the median sector, 2 percent of the variation in counterfactual wage changes while linkage exposure explains 44 percent. In addition, I propose an estimation strategy that incorporates trade linkages in the analysis of the effects of trade on observed wages. In the model, changes in wages are completely determined by changes in market access, an endogenous variable that summarizes the real demand faced by a region. I show that a linkage measure of exposure is a valid instrument for changes in market access within Brazil. By using observed wage changes in Brazil between 1991-2000, my estimates imply that a region at the 25th percentile of the change in domestic market access induced by trade liberalization, experiences a 0.6 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. The estimates from a regression of wages changes on exposure imply that a region at the 25th percentile of exposure experiences a 3 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. I conclude that estimates based on exposure overstate the negative impact of trade liberalization on wages in Brazil. In the fourth chapter, I extend the standard model to allow for two types of workers according to their education levels: skilled and unskilled. I show that there is substantial variation across Brazilian regions in the skill premium. I use the exogenous variation provided by tariff changes to estimate the impact of market access on the skill premium. I find that decreased domestic market access resulting from trade liberalization resulted in a higher skill premium. I propose a mechanism to explain this result: that the manufacturing sector is relatively more intensive in unskilled labor and I show empirical evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

Search for Higgs Boson Production Beyond the Standard Model Using the Razor Kinematic Variables in pp Collisions at √s=8 TeV and Optimization of Higgs Boson Identification Using a Quantum Annealer

In the first part of this thesis we search for beyond the Standard Model physics through the search for anomalous production of the Higgs boson using the razor kinematic variables. We search for anomalous Higgs boson production using proton-proton collisions at center of mass energy √s=8 TeV collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at the Large Hadron Collider corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.8 fb^-1.

In the second part we present a novel method for using a quantum annealer to train a classifier to recognize events containing a Higgs boson decaying to two photons. We train that classifier using simulated proton-proton collisions at √s=8 TeV producing either a Standard Model Higgs boson decaying to two photons or a non-resonant Standard Model process that produces a two photon final state.

The production mechanisms of the Higgs boson are precisely predicted by the Standard Model based on its association with the mechanism of electroweak symmetry breaking. We measure the yield of Higgs bosons decaying to two photons in kinematic regions predicted to have very little contribution from a Standard Model Higgs boson and search for an excess of events, which would be evidence of either non-standard production or non-standard properties of the Higgs boson. We divide the events into disjoint categories based on kinematic properties and the presence of additional b-quarks produced in the collisions. In each of these disjoint categories, we use the razor kinematic variables to characterize events with topological configurations incompatible with typical configurations found from standard model production of the Higgs boson.

We observe an excess of events with di-photon invariant mass compatible with the Higgs boson mass and localized in a small region of the razor plane. We observe 5 events with a predicted background of 0.54 ± 0.28, which observation has a p-value of 10^-3 and a local significance of 3.35σ. This background prediction comes from 0.48 predicted non-resonant background events and 0.07 predicted SM higgs boson events. We proceed to investigate the properties of this excess, finding that it provides a very compelling peak in the di-photon invariant mass distribution and is physically separated in the razor plane from predicted background. Using another method of measuring the background and significance of the excess, we find a 2.5σ deviation from the Standard Model hypothesis over a broader range of the razor plane.

In the second part of the thesis we transform the problem of training a classifier to distinguish events with a Higgs boson decaying to two photons from events with other sources of photon pairs into the Hamiltonian of a spin system, the ground state of which is the best classifier. We then use a quantum annealer to find the ground state of this Hamiltonian and train the classifier. We find that we are able to do this successfully in less than 400 annealing runs for a problem of median difficulty at the largest problem size considered. The networks trained in this manner exhibit good classification performance, competitive with the more complicated machine learning techniques, and are highly resistant to overtraining. We also find that the nature of the training gives access to additional solutions that can be used to improve the classification performance by up to 1.2% in some regions.

Determinants of environmental accounting and reporting practices in portuguese local entities

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop environmental accounting and reporting practices (EARPs) by Portuguese local entities and their determining factors. Design/methodology/approach – Data were obtained through a postal survey. In order to measure the degree of development of environmental accounting and reporting practices index was developed, which reflects the extent to which a set of eight EARPs have been implemented by the 69 Portuguese local entities included in the sample. Three variables are considered in this study as possible factors that drive the development of environmental management practices (EMPs) by local entities, namely, size of entity, accounting framework, degree of development of EMPs. Findings – Results indicate the degree of development of EARPs in Portuguese local entities is low. Additionally, accounting regulation and the degree of development of EMPs are explaining factors of the degree of development of environmental accounting practices in Portuguese local entities. Originality/value – This study adds to the international research on environmental accounting in public sector by providing empirical data from a country, Portugal, where empirical evidence is still relatively limited.

América Latina y el Caribe: Variables de competitividad para la dinámica empresarial 2007 - 2014

Este estudio realiza una categorización regional de los países en América Latina con respecto de las categorizaciones globales teniendo en cuenta los índices de competitividad, crecimiento económico y desarrollo humano. El objetivo es actualizar los análisis sobre la situación regional de forma cuantitativa involucrando el grado de asimetría en la competitividad. Esta relación entre el posicionamiento global y regional ha influenciado directamente la evolución del tejido empresarial

Emergent Antiferromagnetism Out Of The Hidden-order" State In Uru2si2: High Magnetic Field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance To 40 T."

Very high field (29)Si-NMR measurements using a fully (29)Si-enriched URu(2)Si(2) single crystal were carried out in order to microscopically investigate the hidden order (HO) state and adjacent magnetic phases in the high field limit. At the lowest measured temperature of 0.4 K, a clear anomaly reflecting a Fermi surface instability near 22 T inside the HO state is detected by the (29)Si shift, (29)K(c). Moreover, a strong enhancement of (29)K(c) develops near a critical field H(c) ≃ 35.6 T, and the ^{29}Si-NMR signal disappears suddenly at H(c), indicating the total suppression of the HO state. Nevertheless, a weak and shifted (29)Si-NMR signal reappears for fields higher than H(c) at 4.2 K, providing evidence for a magnetic structure within the magnetic phase caused by the Ising-type anisotropy of the uranium ordered moments.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

Comparative Study Of Planned And Unplanned Excisions For The Treatment Of Soft Tissue Sarcoma Of The Extremities.

Unplanned excision of soft tissue sarcomas is common because benign soft tissue lesions are very frequent. This study evaluated the impact of unplanned resections on overall survival, local recurrence and distant metastasis in patients with soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities. In total, 52 patients who were diagnosed with soft tissue sarcomas between May 2001 and March 2011 were analyzed in a retrospective study. Of these patients, 29 (55.8%) had not undergone previous treatment and the remaining 23 (44.2%) patients had undergone prior resection of the tumor without oncological planning. All subsequent surgical procedures were performed at the same cancer referral center. The follow-up ranged from 6 to 122 months, with a mean of 39.89 months. Age, lesion size and depth, histological grade, surgical margins, overall survival, local and distant recurrence and adjuvant therapies were compared. Residual disease was observed in 91.3% of the re-resected specimens in the unplanned excision group, which exhibited greater numbers of superficial lesions, low histological grades and contaminated surgical margins compared with the re-resected specimens in the planned excision group. No differences were observed in local recurrence and 5-year overall survival between the groups, but distant metastases were significantly associated with planned excision after adjustment for the variables. There was no difference between patients undergoing unplanned excision and planned excision regarding local recurrence and overall survival. The planned excision group had a higher risk of distant metastasis, whereas there was a high rate of residual cancer in the unplanned excision group.

Gonadal Hormones Modulate The Responsiveness To Local β-blocker-induced Antinociception In The Temporomandibular Joint Of Male And Female Rats.

We have previously demonstrated that blockade of β-adrenoreceptors (β-AR) located in the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) of rats suppresses formalin-induced TMJ nociceptive behaviour in both male and female rats, but female rats are more responsive. In this study, we investigated whether gonadal hormones modulate the responsiveness to local β-blocker-induced antinociception in the TMJ of rats. Co-administration of each of the selective β1 (atenolol), β2 (ICI 118.551) and β3 (SR59230A)-AR antagonists with equi-nociceptive concentrations of formalin in the TMJ of intact, gonadectomized and hormone-treated gonadectomized male and female rats. Atenolol, ICI 118.551 and SR59230A significantly reduced formalin-induced TMJ nociception in a dose response fashion in all groups tested. However, a lower dose of each β-AR antagonist was sufficient to significantly reduce nociceptive responses in gonadectomized but not in intact and testosterone-treated gonadectomized male rats. In the female groups, a lower dose of β1 -AR antagonist was sufficient to significantly reduce nociceptive responses in gonadectomized but not in intact or gonadectomized rats treated with progesterone or a high dose of oestradiol; a lower dose of β2 -AR antagonist was sufficient to significantly reduce nociceptive responses in gonadectomized but not in intact and gonadectomized rats treated with low or high dose of oestradiol. Gonadal hormones may reduce the responsiveness to local β-blocker-induced antinociception in the TMJ of male and female rats. However, their effect depends upon their plasma level, the subtype of β-AR and the dose of β-blockers used.

Variables Associated With The Performance Of Centers For Dental Specialties In Brazil.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Centers for Dental Specialties (CDS) in the country and associations with sociodemographic indicators of the municipalities, structural variables of services and primary health care organization in the years 2004-2009. The study used secondary data from procedures performed in the CDS to the specialties of periodontics, endodontics, surgery and primary care. Bivariate analysis by χ2 test was used to test the association between the dependent variable (performance of the CDS) with the independents. Then, Poisson regression analysis was performed. With regard to the overall achievement of targets, it was observed that the majority of CDS (69.25%) performance was considered poor/regular. The independent factors associated with poor/regular performance of CDS were: municipalities belonging to the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, with lower Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and reduced time to deployment. HDI and population density are important for the performance of the CDS in Brazil. Similarly, the peculiarities related to less populated areas as well as regional location and time of service implementation CDS should be taken into account in the planning of these services.

Bay 41-2272 Activates Host Defence Against Local And Disseminated Candida Albicans Infections.

In our previous study, we have found that 5-cyclopropyl-2-[1-(2-fluoro-benzyl)-1H-pyrazolo[3,4-b]pyridine-3-yl]-pyrimidin-4-ylamine (BAY 41-2272), a guanylate cyclase agonist, activates human monocytes and the THP-1 cell line to produce the superoxide anion, increasing in vitro microbicidal activity, suggesting that this drug can be used to modulate immune functioning in primary immunodeficiency patients. In the present work, we investigated the potential of the in vivo administration of BAY 41-2272 for the treatment of Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus infections introduced via intraperitoneal and subcutaneous inoculation. We found that intraperitoneal treatment with BAY 41-2272 markedly increased macrophage-dependent cell influx to the peritoneum in addition to macrophage functions, such as spreading, zymosan particle phagocytosis and nitric oxide and phorbol myristate acetate-stimulated hydrogen peroxide production. Treatment with BAY 41-2272 was highly effective in reducing the death rate due to intraperitoneal inoculation of C. albicans, but not S. aureus. However, we found that in vitro stimulation of peritoneal macrophages with BAY 41-2272 markedly increased microbicidal activities against both pathogens. Our results show that the prevention of death by the treatment of C. albicans-infected mice with BAY 41-2272 might occur primarily by the modulation of the host immune response through macrophage activation.