Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Assessing the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer: a Bayesian approach

We review the literature on the combined association between lung cancer and two environmental exposures, asbestos exposure and smoking, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction between the exposures. The meta-analysis combines separate indices of additive and multiplicative relationships and multivariate relative risk estimates. By making inferences on posterior probabilities we can explore both the form and strength of interaction. This analysis may be more informative than providing evidence to support one relation over another on the basis of statistical significance. Overall, we find evidence for a more than additive and less than multiplicative relation.

Towards (dis)Satisfaction

Hosted at Blindside Artist-Run Initiative (Melbourne) the exhibition Towards (dis)Satisfaction (2015) was a re-staging of earlier sculptural works from the exhibitions Means are the Ends: The Command Issue and Crude Tools (2014), Feeble Actions (2013). The forms humorously interrogated representations of gender and sexuality via strategies of sculptural intervention. A stripper’s pole oozes grease from its stainless surface, fluted with holes. A dildo vibrates on a glass tabletop; propped up by simulated testicles, the intensity of the dildo’s vibrations makes the form spin. With its continual circling, the phallus drags Vaseline over the table, performing a drawing and redrawing of a smeared circle. In Towards (dis)Satisfaction fetish is used as an instrumental strategy, employed as a mode to work across different theoretical and material discourses. In the works the play between explicit and implicit depiction creates an ambiguity that has suggestive potency, where fragmentation and dysfunction initiate diverse readings. These material dialogues make apparent the anxiety and desire inherent in the viewer and question how the visual conventions of erotica and art history are mutually informative.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Three-dimensional reconstruction of black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) spermatozoa using serial block-face scanning electron microscopy

Serial Block-Face Scanning Electron Microscopy (SBF-SEM) was used in this study to examine the ultrastructural morphology of Penaeus monodon spermatozoa. SBF-SEM provided a large dataset of sequential electron-microscopic-level images that facilitated comprehensive ultrastructural observations and three-dimensional reconstructions of the sperm cell. Reconstruction divulged a nuclear region of the spermatophoral spermatozoon filled with decondensed chromatin but with two apparent levels of packaging density. In addition, the nuclear region contained, not only numerous filamentous chromatin elements with dense microregions, but also large centrally gathered granular masses. Analysis of the sperm cytoplasm revealed the presence of degenerated mitochondria and membrane-less dense granules. A large electron-lucent vesicle and "arch-like" structures were apparent in the subacrosomal area, and an acrosomal core was found in the acrosomal vesicle. The spermatozoal spike arose from the inner membrane of the acrosomal vesicle, which was slightly bulbous in the middle region of the acrosomal vesicle, but then extended distally into a broad dense plate and to a sharp point proximally. This study has demonstrated that SBF-SEM is a powerful technique for the 3D ultrastructural reconstruction of prawn spermatozoa, that will no doubt be informative for further studies of sperm assessment, reproductive pathology and the spermiocladistics of penaeid prawns, and other decapod crustaceans. J. Morphol., 2016. (c) 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Plants of Central Queensland: Identification and Uses of Native and Introduced Species

Conservation and sustainable productivity are vital issues for Australia. In order to manage vegetation well from an agricultural, recreational or conservation point of view, an understanding of individual plant species is important. Plants of Central Queensland provides a guide for identifying and understanding the plants of the region so that pastoralists and others can be better equipped to manage the vegetation resource of our grazing lands. Central Queensland straddles the Tropic of Capricorn, although many of the plants in the book will also be found outside this area, as shown by their distribution maps. The book provides information on the habit, distribution, foliage and fruits of 525 plant species. Informative notes highlighting declared, poisonous, weed and medicinal plants are included, and plants useful for bees and bush tucker are also noted. These are the most important plants you might see if you live in or travel through central Queensland. This book has an easy-to-read, non-botanical format, with helpful photographs and distribution maps that greatly aid anyone interested in the vegetation of central Queensland. It is based on a previous work of the same title but is greatly expanded, incorporating information on an additional 285 plant species.

Head motion and Inattention/Hyperactivity share common genetic influences: Implications for fMRI studies of ADHD

Head motion (HM) is a well known confound in analyses of functional MRI (fMRI) data. Neuroimaging researchers therefore typically treat HM as a nuisance covariate in their analyses. Even so, it is possible that HM shares a common genetic influence with the trait of interest. Here we investigate the extent to which this relationship is due to shared genetic factors, using HM extracted from resting-state fMRI and maternal and self report measures of Inattention and Hyperactivity-Impulsivity from the Strengths and Weaknesses of ADHD Symptoms and Normal Behaviour (SWAN) scales. Our sample consisted of healthy young adult twins (N = 627 (63% females) including 95 MZ and 144 DZ twin pairs, mean age 22, who had mother-reported SWAN; N = 725 (58% females) including 101 MZ and 156 DZ pairs, mean age 25, with self reported SWAN). This design enabled us to distinguish genetic from environmental factors in the association between head movement and ADHD scales. HM was moderately correlated with maternal reports of Inattention (r = 0.17, p-value = 7.4E-5) and Hyperactivity-Impulsivity (r = 0.16, p-value = 2.9E-4), and these associations were mainly due to pleiotropic genetic factors with genetic correlations [95% CIs] of rg = 0.24 [0.02, 0.43] and rg = 0.23 [0.07, 0.39]. Correlations between self-reports and HM were not significant, due largely to increased measurement error. These results indicate that treating HM as a nuisance covariate in neuroimaging studies of ADHD will likely reduce power to detect between-group effects, as the implicit assumption of independence between HM and Inattention or Hyperactivity-Impulsivity is not warranted. The implications of this finding are problematic for fMRI studies of ADHD, as failing to apply HM correction is known to increase the likelihood of false positives. We discuss two ways to circumvent this problem: censoring the motion contaminated frames of the RS-fMRI scan or explicitly modeling the relationship between HM and Inattention or Hyperactivity-Impulsivity

Kirkko sydämessä : Uskonnon muokkautuminen ja individuaatio inkerinsuomalaisten elämänvaiheissa 1900-luvulla

The Church in one s heart. The formation of religion and individuation in the lives of Ingrian Finns in the 20th century. Sinikka Haapaniemi University of Helsinki, Finland 302 pages The study falls within the sphere of religious views and the problematique of the life trajectory. The target group comprises those Finnish speakers (Ingrian Finns, Ingrians) living in what was historically Ingermanland and who in varying circumstances became scattered. These times were characterized by pressures for change due to societal reasons and reasons of war. In conditions of change external living conditions matters of religious conviction may assume new meaning and form. The examination focuses on sustaining personal faith in difficult life situations and on how crises affected religious views. Another level of scrutiny takes shape through the terminology of the analytic psychology of C.G. Jung. Individuation is deemed to occur as a cumulative process through the stages of life. The basic data for the study comprises interviews with twenty (20) natives of Ingria and their biographical narratives written in standard language. Many biographical accounts and memoirs serve as secondary data. The interviewees, who were largely selected at random, recounted their lives without questions formulated in advance. The study falls within the field of comparative religion and adheres to the principles of qualitative research practice and the case-study method. Effort was made to get to know each interviewee in the situation which his/her narrative presents. The aim is to pay attention to the interpretations given by the narrators of their various experiences and to understand their meanings on a personal level. The years during which the Ingrians were scattered, wandering and returning raise problems of survival. An individual s own initiative assumes individual forms and emphases. Religion was part of the narrators lives as one factor in the quality of life. Their religious thinking was influenced by both their home upbringing and the teaching of the Church. The interviewees took a serious attitude to the informative teaching of confirmation training. When there was no longer a church, it was claimed that the church travelled with them. Changed circumstances tested the validity of the teachings. The message of the Church institution persisted and helped them to preserve their traditions. A striving for unity and for the presence of a community emerged both in the form of ritual behaviour and in a predilection to sociability. Gradually, as they returned, the activity of the Church of Ingria began to revive. At the turn of the millennium the network of parishes was extensive and cultural activity flourished wherever the Ingrians settled in the postwar decades. Religion is part of the process of individuation. Examination of religion and individuation shows that religion remained an individual view, whose factual base was formed by Christianity and the tradition of the Church. Home upbringing served to orientate, but not to bind. With ageing the importance of independent thought is emphasized, for example in relation to confession, it did not pose a threat to individuality. Keywords: Life story, Religiosity, individuation, Ingrian, the Church of Ingria

Essays on Labor Market Frictions, Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.

The life cycle and genetic structure of the red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis on a salinity gradient

The life cycle and genetic diversity of the red alga Furcellaria lumbricalis (Hudson) Lamouroux were investigated in 15 populations in northern Europe. The occurrence of different life cycle phases and seasonality of reproduction were studied in four brackish populations in the northern Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a new method, based on genome screening with ISSR markers combined with a restriction-ligation method, was developed to discover microsatellite markers for population genetic analyses. The mitochondrial DNA cox2-3 spacer sequence and four microsatellite markers were used to examine the genetic diversity and differentiation of red algal populations in northern Europe. In addition, clonality and small-scale genetic structure of one Irish and four Baltic Sea populations were studied with microsatellite markers. It was discovered that at the low salinities of the northern Baltic Sea, only tetrasporophytes and males were present in the populations of F. lumbricalis and that winter was the main season for tetrasporangial production. Furthermore, the population occurring at the lowest salinity (3.6 practical salinity units, psu) did not produce spores. The size of the tetraspores was smaller in the Baltic Sea populations than that in the Irish population, and there were more deformed spores in the Baltic Sea populations than in the Irish populations. Studies with microsatellite markers indicated that clonality is a common phenomenon in the Baltic Sea populations of F. lumbricalis, although the proportion of clonal individuals varied among populations. Some genetic divergence occurred within locations both in Ireland and in the northern Baltic Sea. Even though no carpogonia were detected in the field samples during the study, the microsatellite data indicated that sexual reproduction occurs at least occasionally in the northern Baltic Sea. The genetic diversity of F. lumbricalis was highest in Brittany, France. Since no variation was discovered in the mtDNA cox2-3 spacer sequence, which is generally regarded as an informative phylogeographic marker in red algae, it can be assumed that the studied populations probably share the same origin.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

A case study of Brisbane, the capital city of Queensland, Australia, explored how explicit measures of transit quality of service (e.g., service frequency, service span, and travel time ratio) and implicit environmental predictors (e.g., topographic grade factor) influenced bus ridership. The primary hypothesis tested was that bus ridership was higher in suburbs with high transit quality of service than in suburbs with limited service quality. Multiple linear regression, used to identify a strong positive relationship between route intensity (bus-km/h-km2) and bus ridership, indicated that both increased service frequency and spatial route density corresponded to higher bus ridership. Additionally, the travel time ratio (i.e., the ratio of in-vehicle transit travel time to in-vehicle automobile travel time) had a significant negative association with suburban ridership: transit use declined as travel time ratio increased. In contrast, topographic grade and service span did not significantly affect suburban bus ridership. The study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveler behavior, which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning, and provision.

Mining topical relevant patterns for multi-document summarization

Multi-document summarization addressing the problem of information overload has been widely utilized in the various real-world applications. Most of existing approaches adopt term-based representation for documents which limit the performance of multi-document summarization systems. In this paper, we proposed a novel pattern-based topic model (PBTMSum) for the task of the multi-document summarization. PBTMSum combining pattern mining techniques with LDA topic modelling could generate discriminative and semantic rich representations for topics and documents so that the most representative and non-redundant sentences can be selected to form a succinct and informative summary. Extensive experiments are conducted on the data of document understanding conference (DUC) 2007. The results prove the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. Prostate 75:1467–1474, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: A Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

Background Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. Results The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). Conclusions We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Noninvasive techniques in assessing coronary artery disease

Conventional invasive coronary angiography is the clinical gold standard for detecting of coronary artery stenoses. Noninvasive multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in combination with retrospective ECG gating has recently been shown to permit visualization of the coronary artery lumen and detection of coronary artery stenoses. Single photon emission tomography (SPECT) perfusion imaging has been considered the reference method for evaluation of nonviable myocardium, but magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can accurately depict structure, function, effusion, and myocardial viability, with an overall capacity unmatched by any other single imaging modality. Magnetocardiography (MCG) provides noninvasively information about myocardial excitation propagation and repolarization without the use of electrodes. This evolving technique may be considered the magnetic equivalent to electrocardiography. The aim of the present series of studies was to evaluate changes in the myocardium assessed with SPECT and MRI caused by coronary artery disease, examine the capability of multidetector computed tomography coronary angiography (MDCT-CA) to detect significant stenoses in the coronary arteries, and MCG to assess remote myocardial infarctions. Our study showed that in severe, progressing coronary artery disease laser treatment does not improve global left ventricular function or myocardial perfusion, but it does preserve systolic wall thickening in fixed defects (scar). It also prevents changes from ischemic myocardial regions to scar. The MCG repolarization variables are informative in remote myocardial infarction, and may perform as well as the conventional QRS criteria in detection of healed myocardial infarction. These STT abnormalities are more pronounced in patients with Q-wave infarction than in patients with non-Q-wave infarctions. MDCT-CA had a sensitivity of 82%, a specificity of 94%, a positive predictive value of 79%, and a negative predictive value of 95% for stenoses over 50% in the main coronary arteries as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with known coronary artery disease. Left ventricular wall dysfunction, perfusion defects, and infarctions were detected in 50-78% of sectors assigned to calcifications or stenoses, but also in sectors supplied by normally perfused coronary arteries. Our study showed a low sensitivity (sensitivity 63%) in detecting obstructive coronary artery disease assessed by MDCT in patients with severe aortic stenosis. Massive calcifications complicated correct assessment of the lumen of coronary arteries.