Inserção de todos os consumidores no mercado liberalizado de energia elétrica: oportunidades e desafios

O processo de liberalização do setor elétrico em Portugal Continental seguiu uma metodologia idêntica à da maior parte dos países europeus, tendo a abertura de mercado sido efetuada de forma progressiva. Assim, no âmbito do acompanhamento do setor elétrico nacional, reveste-se de particular interesse caracterizar a evolução mais recente do mercado liberalizado, nomeadamente em relação ao preço da energia elétrica. A previsão do preço da energia elétrica é uma questão muito importante para todos os participantes do mercado de energia elétrica. Como se trata de um assunto de grande importância, a previsão do preço da energia elétrica tem sido alvo de diversos estudos e diversas metodologias têm sido propostas. Esta questão é abordada na presente dissertação recorrendo a técnicas de previsão, nomeadamente a métodos baseados no histórico da variável em estudo. As previsões são, segundo alguns especialistas, um dos inputs essenciais que os gestores desenvolvem para ajudar no processo de decisão. Virtualmente cada decisão relevante ao nível das operações depende de uma previsão. Para a realização do modelo de previsão de preço da energia elétrica foram utilizados os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis, Autoregressive / Integrated / Moving Average (ARIMA), que geram previsões através da informação contida na própria série temporal. Como se pretende avaliar a estrutura do preço da energia elétrica do mercado de energia, é importante identificar, deste conjunto de variáveis, quais as que estão mais relacionados com o preço. Neste sentido, é realizada em paralelo uma análise exploratória, através da correlação entre o preço da energia elétrica e outras variáveis de estudo, utilizando para esse efeito o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson. O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson é uma medida do grau e da direção de relação linear entre duas variáveis quantitativas. O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado tendo por base o histórico de preço da eletricidade desde o inicio do mercado liberalizado e de modo a obter as previsões diária, mensal e anual do preço da eletricidade. A metodologia desenvolvida demonstrou ser eficiente na obtenção das soluções e ser suficientemente rápida para prever o valor do preço da energia elétrica em poucos segundos, servindo de apoio à decisão em ambiente de mercado.

Negative non-ground queries in well founded semantics

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Computational Logic

Local Fractional Variational Iteration Method for Local Fractional Poisson Equations in Two Independent Variables

The local fractional Poisson equations in two independent variables that appear in mathematical physics involving the local fractional derivatives are investigated in this paper. The approximate solutions with the nondifferentiable functions are obtained by using the local fractional variational iteration method.

Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

Reclamações, nova metodologia de avaliação do risco clínico

RESUMO - A OMS estima que dezenas de milhares de doentes em todo o mundo sofrem consequências ou morrem devido a cuidados e práticas médicas pouco seguras (JHA, A., ed. lit., 2008). Este estudo surge com o intuito de gerar conhecimento acerca dos EA e promover a melhoria da gestão do risco com base na perspectiva do doente, obtida através das reclamações. As reclamações contêm informação primordial acerca das necessidades reais, manifestas e sentidas pelo doente e as pessoas que lhes estão próximas (familiares, cuidadores informais). Elas podem reportar EA e constituir um veículo importante da melhoria da qualidade. O objectivo geral do estudo é contribuir para a melhoria da qualidade dos serviços de saúde, particularmente no que diz respeito à melhoria da segurança do doente. Para tal, será desenvolvida metodologia de análise de reclamações, para avaliação da ocorrência de EA. O instrumento de colheita de dados consiste numa checklist de verificação de variáveis, para posterior caracterização e realização de testes estatísticos. ----------ABSTRACT - The WHO estimate that tens of thousands customers around the world suffer or die due to Care and unsafe medical practices consequences (JHA, A., ed. lit., 2008). The aim of this research is to generate knowledge about the adverse events and promote the improvement of risk management based on patient perspective, obtained through complaints. Claims/Complaints contain vital information about the real needs, perceived and manifest by the patient and those close to them (families, informal caregivers). They can report adverse events and provide an essential vehicle to quality improvement. The study overall objective is to contribute to health services quality improvement, particularly as regard to improving the patient safety. For this will be developed methodology of complaints analysis, to adverse events occurrence assessment. The instrument for data collect consists in a checklist to variables verification toward further characterizati

Seroepidemiology and occupational and environmental variables for leptospirosis, brucellosis and toxoplasmosis in slaughterhouse workers in the Paraná State, Brazil

Leptospirosis, brucellosis and toxoplasmosis are widely-distributed zoonosis, being the man an accidental participant of their epidemiological chains. The aim of this paper was to make a seroepidemiological report and identify occupational and environmental variables related to these illnesses in 150 workers in a slaughterhouse in the Northern region of Paraná. For the diagnosis of leptospirosis a microscopical seroagglutination test was applied; for brucellosis, the tamponated acidified antigen test and the 2-mercaptoetanol tests were used, and for toxoplasmosis the indirect immunofluorescence reaction test. For each employee an epidemiological survey was filled, which investigated occupational and environmental variables which could be associated with these infections. Positive results for leptospirosis were found in 4.00% of the samples, for brucellosis in 0.66% of samples and toxoplasmosis in 70.00%. From the three diseases researched, only the results for leptospirosis suggest occupational infection.

Predictive Variables Affecting Transfusion Requirements in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Adult orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is associated with considerable blood product requirements. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of preoperative information to predict intraoperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion requirements among adult liver recipients. METHODS: Preoperative variables with previously demonstrated relationships to intraoperative RBC transfusion were identified from the literature: sex, age, pathology, prothrombin time (PT), factor V, hemoglobin (Hb), and platelet count (plt). These variables were then retrospectively collected from 758 consecutive adult patients undergoing OLT from 1997 to 2007. Relationships between these variables and intraoperative blood transfusion requirements were examined by both univariate analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Univariate analysis confirmed significant associations between RBC transfusion and PT, factor V, Hb, Plt, pathology, and age (P values all < .001). However, stepwise backward multivariate analysis excluded variables Plt and factor V from the multiple regression linear model. The variables included in the final predictive model were PT, Hb, age, and pathology. Patients suffering from liver carcinoma required more blood products than those suffering from other pathologies. Yet, the overall predictive power of the final model was limited (R(2) = .308; adjusted R(2) = .30). CONCLUSION: Preoperative variables have limited predictive power for intraoperative RBC transfusion requirements even when significant statistical associations exist, identifying only a small portion of the observed total transfusion variability. Preoperative PT, Hb, age, and liver pathology seem to be the most significant predictive factors but other factors like severity of liver disease, surgical technique, medical experience in liver transplantation, and other noncontrollable human variables may play important roles to determine the final transfusion requirements.

Combined effect of the essential oil from Chenopodium ambrosioides and antileishmanial drugs on promastigotes of Leishmania amazonensis

To date, there are no vaccines against Leishmania, and chemotherapy remains the mainstay for the control of leishmaniasis. The drugs of choice used for leishmaniasis therapy are significantly toxic, expensive and with a growing frequency of refractory infections. Because of these limitations, a combination therapy is the better hope. This work demonstrates that the essential oil from Chenopodium ambrosioides shows a synergic activity after incubation in conjunction with pentamidine against promastigotes of Leishmania amazonensis. However, an indifferent effect has been found for combinations of meglumine antimoniate or amphotericin B and the essential oil.

Postaerobic Exercise Blood Pressure Reduction in Very Old Persons With Hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A single bout of aerobic exercise acutely decreases blood pressure, even in older adults with hypertension. Nonetheless, blood pressure responses to aerobic exercise in very old adults with hypertension have not yet been documented. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the effect of a single session of aerobic exercise on postexercise blood pressure in very old adults with hypertension. METHODS: Eighteen older adults with essential hypertension were randomized into exercise (N = 9, age: 83.4 ± 3.2 years old) or control (N = 9, age: 82.7 ± 2.5 years old) groups. The exercise group performed a session of aerobic exercise constituting 2 periods of 10 minutes of walking at an intensity of 40% to 60% of the heart rate reserve. The control group rested for the same period of time. Anthropometric variables and medication status were evaluated at baseline. Heart rate and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured at baseline, after exercise, and at 20 and 40 minutes postexercise. RESULTS: Systolic blood pressure showed a significant interaction for group × time (F3,24 = 6.698; P = .002; ηp = 0.153). In the exercise group, the systolic blood pressure at 20 (127.3 ± 20.9 mm Hg) and 40 minutes (123.7 ± 21.0 mm Hg) postexercise was significantly lower in comparison with baseline (135.6 ± 20.6 mm Hg). Diastolic blood pressure did not change. Heart rate was significantly higher after the exercise session. In the control group, no significant differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: A single session of aerobic exercise acutely reduces blood pressure in very old adults with hypertension and may be considered an important nonpharmacological strategy to control hypertension in this age group.

Influence of variables on centrifuge-flotation technique for recovery of Toxocara canis eggs from soil

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of variables in a flotation technique for the recovery of Toxocara canis eggs from soil. The trials were done under standardized conditions on one gram of previously sterilized soil samples contaminated with 200 eggs of T. canis. The following variables were evaluated in serial steps: sieving; type of wash; time of stirring; resuspension of sediment; solution flotation. Centrifuge-flotation in sodium nitrate (d = 1.20 g/cm³) was adopted as an initial technique, using Tween 80 (0.2%) and decinormal sodium hydroxide as solutions for washing the samples. Ten tests were done to compare the variables, using counting in triplicate. The sieving of the material reduced significantly the recovery of eggs (p < 0.001) and the number of eggs recovered was higher when the sediment was resuspended (p < 0.05). After standardization, flotation solutions sodium chloride, zinc sulfate, sodium dichromate, magnesium sulfate, and sodium nitrate (d = 1.20g/cm³) were compared. The best results were obtained by using zinc sulfate solution. In conclusion, the chances of recovering T. canis eggs from samples using flotation solutions can be increased by washing of soil twice using distilled water, and resuspension of sediment. On the other hand, the sieving procedure can drastically reduce the number of eggs.

Hopelessness and Related Variables among Cancer Patients in the Southern European Psycho-Oncology Study (SEPOS).

BACKGROUND: Although hopelessness has been studied in cancer, no data are available in non-English-speaking countries. OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to amass data from Southern European countries (Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) in order to fill this void. METHOD: A group of 312 cancer patients completed the Mini-MAC Hopelessness subscale, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the Cancer Worry Inventory (CWI), and a six-item Visual Analog scale (VAS) to measure intensity of physical symptoms, general well-being, difficulty in coping with cancer, intensity of social support from close relationships, leisure activity, and support from religious beliefs. RESULTS: Regression analysis indicated that HADS-Depression, VAS Maladaptive Coping and Well-Being, and the CWI explained 42% of the variance. CONCLUSION: Hopelessness in cancer patients seems not exclusively to correspond to depression, but is related to various other psychosocial factors, such as maladaptive coping, as well.

Modelling and optimization of the ion exchange membrane bioreactor for removal of anionic pollutants from drinking water streams

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Engenharia Bioquímica

Molluscicidal and Mosquitocidal Activities of the Essential oils of Thymus capitatus Hoff. et Link. and Marrubium vulgare L.

Steam distillation of essential oils of aerial parts of Thymus capitatus and Marrubium vulgare L. collected at North cost of Egypt yielded 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Results of Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analyses of the two samples identified 96.27% and 90.19% of the total oil composition for T. capitatus and M. vulgare, respectively. The two oil samples appeared dominated by the oxygenated constituents (88.22% for T. capitatus and 57.50% for M. vulgare), composed of phenols, mainly carvacrol (32.98%) and thymol (32.82%) in essential oil of T. capitatus, and thymol (34.55%) in essential oil of M. vulgare. It was evaluated the molluscicidal activity of T. capitatus and M. vulgare essential oils on adult and eggs of Biomphalaria alexandrina as well as their mosquitocidal activity on Culex pipiens. The LC50 and LC90 of T. capitatus essential oil against adult snails was 200 and 400 ppm/3hrs, respectively, while for M. vulgare it was 50 and 100 ppm/3hrs, respectively. Moreover, M. vulgare showed LC100 ovicidal activity at 200 ppm/24 hrs while T. capitatus oil showed no ovicidal activity. It was verified mosquitocidal activity, with LC50 and LC90 of 100 and 200 ppm/12hrs respectively for larvae, and 200 and 400 ppm/12hrs respectively for pupae of C. pipiens.