871 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging


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Työssä tutkittiin jalometallien selektiivistä erottamista kloridiliuoksista synteettisten polymeerihartsien avulla. Laboratoriokokeissa keskityttiin tutkimaan kullan erottamista hydrofiilisen polymetakrylaattipohjaisen adsorbentin avulla. Lähtökohtana oli platinarikaste, joka sisälsi kullan lisäksi platinaa, palladiumia, hopeaa, kuparia, rautaa, vismuttia, seleeniä ja telluuria. Mittauksissa tutkittiin eri metallien ja puolimetallien adsorptiota hartsiin tasapaino-, kinetiikka- ja kolonnikokeilla. Työssä käytettiin myös adsorption simulointiin monikomponenttierotuksen dynaamiseen mallintamiseen tarkoitettua tietokoneohjelmaa, johon tarvittavat parametrit estimoitiin kokeellisen datan avulla. Tasapainokokeet yhtä metallia sisältäneistä liuoksista osoittivat, että hartsi adsorboi tehokkaasti kultaa kaikissa tutkituissa suolahappopitoisuuksissa (1-6 M). Kulta muodostaa hartsiin hyvin adsorboituvia tetrakloroauraatti(III)ioneja, [AuCl4]-, jotka ovat erittäin stabiileja pieniin kloridipitoisuuksiin saakka. Suolahappopitoisuudella oli merkitystä ainoastaan raudan adsorptioon, joka kasvoi huomattavasti suolahappopitoisuuden noustessa johtuen raudan taipumuksesta muodostaa hyvin adsorboituvia [FeCl4]--ioneja väkevissä suolahappopitoisuuksissa. Muiden tutkittujen alkuaineiden adsorptiot jäivät alhaisiksi kaikilla suolahappopitoisuuksilla. Rikasteliuoksella tehdyt tasapainokokeet osoittivat, että adsorptiokapasiteetti kullalle riippuu voimakkaasti muista läsnäolevista komponenteista. Kilpaileva adsorptio kuvattiin Langmuir-Freundlich-isotermillä. Kolonnikokeet osoittivat, että hartsi adsorboi kullan lisäksi hieman myös rautaa ja telluuria, jotka saatiin kuitenkin eluoitua hartsista täysin 5 M suolahappopesulla ja sitä seuraavalla 1 M suolahappopesulla. Tehokkaaksi liuokseksi kullan desorboimiseen osoittautui asetonin ja 1 M suolahapon seos. Kolonnierotuksen eri vaiheet pystyttiin tyydyttävästi kuvaamaan simulointimallilla.

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Työn tavoitteena oli rakentaa dynaaminen malli kuplaleijupetikattilasta APROS- ohjelmistoa käyttäen. Tarkoituksena oli selvittää kyseisen ohjelmiston soveltuvuutta nykyaikaisen voimalaitoskattilan mallintamiseen. Mallin rakentamisen perustana oli toiminnassa oleva kuplaleijupetillä varustettu voimalaitoskattila. Näin oli käytettävissä riittävä määrä aineistoa mallin rakenteen luomiseen ja valmiin mallin sovittamiseen. Työ on luonteeltaan kaksiosainen. Ensimmäinen osa on kirjallisuusosa, jossa esitellään mallinnuksen kohteena olevaa tekniikkaa. Tekniikasta annetaan kuva esittelemällä perusteoria ja käytännön sovellukset. Lisäksi esitellään kattilassa käytettävät polttoaineet. Kirjallisuusosassa esitellään myös käytettävä APROS-mallinnusohjelmisto. Ohjelmiston laskennan perusteita ei erikseen esitellä. Ne pohjautuvat yleiseen termodynamiikan ja lämmönsiirron teoriaan. Ohjelmiston käytöstä ja sen toiminnasta yleensä annetaan yleisluontoinen selostus. Toisessa osassa mallin rakentaminen esitellään vaiheittain ja siinä järjestyksessä kuin se mallia rakennettaessa tehtiin. Kattilamallin toimintaa testattiin vertaamalla kattilan mitoitustilaan viritettyä mallia takuukokeiden mittaustuloksiin. Lisäksi testattiin mallin toimintaa osakuormalla koeajojakson soveltuvasta osakuormatilasta saatuihin mittausarvoihin. Mallin jatkokehitys pitää sisällään laajamittaisen automaation luomisen ja erilaisten muutostilojen testaamista mallilla.

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Työn tavoitteena oli muodostaa virtuaaliprototyyppi fuusioreaktorin huollossa käytettävästä IVP-robotista. Työssä mallinnettiin robotin mekaniikka joustavana sekä toimilaitteiden ja käyttöjen dynaamiset ominaisuudet valmistajien esitietojen ja mitoitustietojen perusteella. Käyttöjen ja mekaniikan mallit yhdistettiin ADAMS-ohjelmistossa. Mekaanisten joustojen mallinnuksessa sekä verifioinnissa käytettiin apuna ANSYS –ohjelmistoa. Virtuaaliprototyypin toimivuudesta varmistuttiin vertaamalla sitä robotin suunnittelutietoihin ja fyysiseen prototyyppiin. Robotin ohjauksessa käytettävän P-säätäjän vaikutusta tutkittiin eri vahvistuksen arvoilla sekä verrattiin mekaanisia vasteita fyysisen prototyypin dynaamisiin testeihin. Esimerkkinä robotin käyttäytymisestä todellisessa tilanteessa simuloitiin sen ajoa reaktoriin. Toteutetun simulointimallin todettiin vastaavan rakenteeltaan sekä siinä esiintyvien voimien osalta suunnitelmien mukaista konstruktiota. Käytetyillä parametreilla se toteutti hyvin robotille asetetut nopeusvaatimukset.

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A new dynamic model of dolomitization predicts a multitude of textural, paragenetic, geochemical and other properties of burial dolomites. The model is based on two postulates, (1) that the dolomitizing brine is Mg-rich but under saturated with both calcite and dolomite, and (2) that the dolomite-for-calcite replacement happens not by dissolution-precipitation as usually assumed, but by dolomite-growth-driven pressure solution of the calcite host. Crucially, the dolomite-for-calcite replacement turns out to be self-accelerating via Ca2 : the Ca2 released by each replacement increment accelerates the rate of the next, and so on. As a result, both pore-fluid Ca2 and replacement rate grow exponentially.

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Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

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RÉSUMÉ En combinant la perspective du parcours de vie à la théorie du stress et selon une approche psychosociale, cette thèse montre comment les expériences individuelles et collectives de victimisation ont marqué les parcours de vie, les croyances et le bien-être d'une cohorte de jeunes adultes ayant traversé les guerres en ex-Yougoslavie. Le premier article applique des analyses de courbes de croissance à classes latentes et dégage différentes trajectoires d'exclusion entre 1990 et 2006. L'analyse de ces trajectoires met en évidence les intersections entre vies individuelles, contexte et temps socio-historique et démontre que les expériences de guerre et les périodes d'exclusion socio-économique laissent des traces sur le bien-être à long terme. Les deuxième et troisième articles montrent que la croyance en un monde juste est ébranlée suite à des expériences de précarité socio-économique et de victimisation dues à la guerre au niveau individuel et contextuel. Un effet curvilinéaire et des interactions entre les niveaux indiquent que ces relations varient en fonction de l'intensité de la victimisation au niveau contextuel. Des effets de récence sont aussi relevés. Le quatrième article démontre que l'impact négatif de la victimisation sur le bien-être est en partie expliqué par un effritement de la croyance en un monde juste. De plus, si les individus qui croient davantage en un monde juste sont plus satisfaits de leur vie, la force de ce lien varie en fonction du niveau de victimisation dans certains contextes. Cette thèse présente un modèle multiniveaux dynamique dans lequel la croyance en un monde juste n'exerce plus le rôle de ressource personnelle stable mais s'érode face à la victimisation, entraînant ainsi un bien-être moindre. Ce travail souligne l'importance d'articuler les niveaux individuels et contextuels et de considérer la dimension temporelle pour expliquer les liens entre victimisation, croyance en un monde juste et bien-être. ABSTRACT By combining a life course perspective to stress theory and according to a psychosocial approach, this thesis shows how individual and collective victimisation experiences marked the life course, beliefs and well-being of a cohort of young adults who lived through the wars in former Yugoslavia. In the first article, latent class growth analyses were applied to identify different exclusion trajectories between 1990 and 2006. The analysis of these trajectories highlighted the intersections between individual lives, socio-historical context and time and demonstrated that experiences of war and socio-economic exclusion leave traces on well-being in the long term. The second and third articles showed that the belief in a just world was shattered due to socio-economic precariousness and war victimisation at individual and contextual levels. A curvilinear effect and cross-level interactions indicated that these relations varied according to the intensity of victimisation at the contextual level. Time effects were also noted. The fourth article showed that the negative impact of victimisation on well-being was partly explained by an erosion of the belief in a just world. Furthermore, if high believers were more satisfied with their lives, the strength of this relation varied depending on the level of victimisation in particular contexts. This thesis presents a multilevel dynamic model in which the belief in a just world no longer exercises the role of a stable personal resource but erodes in the face of victimisation, leading to a lower well-being. This work stresses the importance of articulating individual and contextual levels as well as considering the temporal dimension to explain the links between victimisation, belief in a just world and well-being.

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Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

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The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

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Paperiteollisuuden prosessituotteista paperia varastoidaan erikokoisina rullina esim. pystyrullavarastoihin. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli kehittää Konecranesin prosessinosturille liityntä paperirullia käsittelevän kuormauselimen ja nosturin välille. Tavoitteena oli löytää kiinnitysmenetelmä, joka mahdollistaa nosturien joustavan käytön mahdollisimman pienin muutoksin itse nosturin standardoituun rakenteeseen. Pääasiallisena syventymisen kohteena oli alipaineella paperirullia nostettavan kuormauselimen liityntä. Liitynnän on kyettävä joustamaan ja vaimentamaan paperirullia nostavaan kuormauselimeen nosturin liikkeelle lähdöstä ja pysähtymisestä syntyvät herätteet ja voimat. Nosturin liikenopeus on kyettävä pitämään mahdollisimman suurena lyhyen rullienkäsittelyajan saavuttamiseksi. Liitynnältä vaaditaan kykyä ottaa kuormauselin vastaan mahdollisimman suurella nostonopeudella. Lisäksi kuorman ja kuormauselimen oskillaatio on vaimennettava mahdollisimman nopeasti samalla rajoittaen heilunnasta aiheutuvaa maksimi siirtymää. Liitynnän suunnittelu pohjautuu nosturin, kuormauselimen ja paperirullan muodostaman systeemin teoreettiseen tarkasteluun. Systeemistä laadittiin dynaaminen malli, jonka avulla tutkittiin oskillaation ja syntyvien kiihtyvyyksien suuruutta. Näiden teoriaan perustuvien tuloksien pohjalta suunniteltiin vaimennukseen tarvittavat vaimennuselementit ja liitynnän rakenne. Suunnittelutyön tuloksena saatiin liitynnälle alustava rakenne, joka mahdollistaa käytettävien vaimennuselementtien vaihtamisen ja siten tehokkaan heilunnan vaimmennuksen. Suunnittelutyön lähtökohtana oleva teoreettinen tarkastelu vaatii tuekseen esim. prototyypin kokeellisten tulosten saamiseksi ennen lopullisen tuotteen valmistamista. Suunnitteluprosessissa noudatettiin järjestelmällisen tuotesuunnittelun vaiheita ja menetelmiä.

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The consumption of manganese is increasing, but huge amounts of manganese still end up in waste in hydrometallurgical processes. The recovery of manganese from multi-metal solutions at low concentrations may not be economical. In addition, poor iron control typically prevents the production of high purity manganese. Separation of iron from manganese can be done with chemical precipitation or solvent extraction methods. Combined carbonate precipitation with air oxidation is a feasible method to separate iron and manganese due to the fast kinetics, good controllability and economical reagents. In addition the leaching of manganese carbonate is easier and less acid consuming than that of hydroxide or sulfide precipitates. Selective iron removal with great efficiency from MnSO4 solution is achieved by combined oxygen or air oxidation and CaCO3 precipitation at pH > 5.8 and at a redox potential of > 200 mV. In order to avoid gypsum formation, soda ash should be used instead of limestone. In such case, however, extra attention needs to be paid on the reagents mole ratios in order to avoid manganese coprecipitation. After iron removal, pure MnSO4 solution was obtained by solvent extraction using organophosphorus reagents, di-(2-ethylhexyl)phosphoric acid (D2EHPA) and bis(2,4,4- trimethylpentyl)phosphinic acid (CYANEX 272). The Mn/Ca and Mn/Mg selectivities can be increased by decreasing the temperature from the commonly used temperatures (40 –60oC) to 5oC. The extraction order of D2EHPA (Ca before Mn) at low temperature remains unchanged but the lowering of temperature causes an increase in viscosity and slower phase separation. Of these regents, CYANEX 272 is selective for Mn over Ca and, therefore, it would be the better choice if there is Ca present in solution. A three-stage Mn extraction followed by a two-stage scrubbing and two-stage sulfuric acid stripping is an effective method of producing a very pure MnSO4 intermediate solution for further processing. From the intermediate MnSO4 some special Mn- products for ion exchange applications were synthesized and studied. Three types of octahedrally coordinated manganese oxide materials as an alternative final product for manganese were chosen for synthesis: layer structured Nabirnessite, tunnel structured Mg-todorokite and K-kryptomelane. As an alternative source of pure MnSO4 intermediate, kryptomelane was synthesized by using a synthetic hydrometallurgical tailings. The results show that the studied OMS materials adsorb selectively Cu, Ni, Cd and K in the presence of Ca and Mg. It was also found that the exchange rates were reasonably high due to the small particle dimensions. Materials are stable in the studied conditions and their maximum Cu uptake capacity was 1.3 mmol/g. Competitive uptake of metals and acid was studied using equilibrium, batch kinetic and fixed-bed measurements. The experimental data was correlated with a dynamic model, which also accounts for the dissolution of the framework manganese. Manganese oxide micro-crystals were also bound onto silica to prepare a composite material having a particle size large enough to be used in column separation experiments. The MnOx/SiO2 ratio was found to affect significantly the properties of the composite. The higher the ratio, the lower is the specific surface area, the pore volume and the pore size. On the other hand, higher amount of silica binder gives composites better mechanical properties. Birnesite and todorokite can be aggregated successfully with colloidal silica at pH 4 and with MnO2/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.7. The best gelation and drying temperature was 110oC and sufficiently strong composites were obtained by additional heat-treatment at 250oC for 2 h. The results show that silica–supported MnO2 materials can be utilized to separate copper from nickel and cadmium. The behavior of the composites can be explained reasonably well with the presented model and the parameters estimated from the data of the unsupported oxides. The metal uptake capacities of the prepared materials were quite small. For example, the final copper loading was 0.14 mmol/gMnO2. According to the results the special MnO2 materials are potential for a specific environmental application to uptake harmful metal ions.

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This paper presents a new type of magnetic bearing with active control only in axial direction. The bearing uses two pairs of permanent magnets working in attraction mode to restrict the radial motion and a control system composed of two electromagnets, a gap sensor and a controller to keep the axis in a fixed axial position. The principle, the dynamic model for axial motion and the control system for this bearing are presented. Finally, by experiments conducted in a prototype, the effectiveness of the presented concept is shown.

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This study combines several projects related to the flows in vessels with complex shapes representing different chemical apparata. Three major cases were studied. The first one is a two-phase plate reactor with a complex structure of intersecting micro channels engraved on one plate which is covered by another plain plate. The second case is a tubular microreactor, consisting of two subcases. The first subcase is a multi-channel two-component commercial micromixer (slit interdigital) used to mix two liquid reagents before they enter the reactor. The second subcase is a micro-tube, where the distribution of the heat generated by the reaction was studied. The third case is a conventionally packed column. However, flow, reactions or mass transfer were not modeled. Instead, the research focused on how to describe mathematically the realistic geometry of the column packing, which is rather random and can not be created using conventional computeraided design or engineering (CAD/CAE) methods. Several modeling approaches were used to describe the performance of the processes in the considered vessels. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to describe the details of the flow in the plate microreactor and micromixer. A space-averaged mass transfer model based on Fick’s law was used to describe the exchange of the species through the gas-liquid interface in the microreactor. This model utilized data, namely the values of the interfacial area, obtained by the corresponding CFD model. A common heat transfer model was used to find the heat distribution in the micro-tube. To generate the column packing, an additional multibody dynamic model was implemented. Auxiliary simulation was carried out to determine the position and orientation of every packing element in the column. This data was then exported into a CAD system to generate desirable geometry, which could further be used for CFD simulations. The results demonstrated that the CFD model of the microreactor could predict the flow pattern well enough and agreed with experiments. The mass transfer model allowed to estimate the mass transfer coefficient. Modeling for the second case showed that the flow in the micromixer and the heat transfer in the tube could be excluded from the larger model which describes the chemical kinetics in the reactor. Results of the third case demonstrated that the auxiliary simulation could successfully generate complex random packing not only for the column but also for other similar cases.

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The assembly and maintenance of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) vacuum vessel (VV) is highly challenging since the tasks performed by the robot involve welding, material handling, and machine cutting from inside the VV. The VV is made of stainless steel, which has poor machinability and tends to work harden very rapidly, and all the machining operations need to be carried out from inside of the ITER VV. A general industrial robot cannot be used due to its poor stiffness in the heavy duty machining process, and this will cause many problems, such as poor surface quality, tool damage, low accuracy. Therefore, one of the most suitable options should be a light weight mobile robot which is able to move around inside of the VV and perform different machining tasks by replacing different cutting tools. Reducing the mass of the robot manipulators offers many advantages: reduced material costs, reduced power consumption, the possibility of using smaller actuators, and a higher payload-to-robot weight ratio. Offsetting these advantages, the lighter weight robot is more flexible, which makes it more difficult to control. To achieve good machining surface quality, the tracking of the end effector must be accurate, and an accurate model for a more flexible robot must be constructed. This thesis studies the dynamics and control of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant hybrid robot (4-DOF serial mechanism and 6-DOF 6-UPS hexapod parallel mechanisms) hydraulically driven with flexible rods under the influence of machining forces. Firstly, the flexibility of the bodies is described using the floating frame of reference method (FFRF). A finite element model (FEM) provided the Craig-Bampton (CB) modes needed for the FFRF. A dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using the constrained Lagrange equations and the Lagrange multiplier method. Subsequently, the reaction forces between the parallel and serial parts were used to study the dynamics of the serial robot. A PID control based on position predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders of the robot. Secondly, in machining, to achieve greater end effector trajectory tracking accuracy for surface quality, a robust control of the actuators for the flexible link has to be deduced. This thesis investigates the intelligent control of a hydraulically driven parallel robot part based on the dynamic model and two schemes of intelligent control for a hydraulically driven parallel mechanism based on the dynamic model: (1) a fuzzy-PID self-tuning controller composed of the conventional PID control and with fuzzy logic, and (2) adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-PID (ANFIS-PID) self-tuning of the gains of the PID controller, which are implemented independently to control each hydraulic cylinder of the parallel mechanism based on rod length predictions. The serial component of the hybrid robot can be analyzed using the equilibrium of reaction forces at the universal joint connections of the hexa-element. To achieve precise positional control of the end effector for maximum precision machining, the hydraulic cylinder should be controlled to hold the hexa-element. Thirdly, a finite element approach of multibody systems using the Special Euclidean group SE(3) framework is presented for a parallel mechanism with flexible piston rods under the influence of machining forces. The flexibility of the bodies is described using the nonlinear interpolation method with an exponential map. The equations of motion take the form of a differential algebraic equation on a Lie group, which is solved using a Lie group time integration scheme. The method relies on the local description of motions, so that it provides a singularity-free formulation, and no parameterization of the nodal variables needs to be introduced. The flexible slider constraint is formulated using a Lie group and used for modeling a flexible rod sliding inside a cylinder. The dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using Hamilton’s principle and the Lagrange multiplier method. A linearized hydraulic control system based on rod length predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders. Consequently, the results of the simulations demonstrating the behavior of the robot machine are presented for each case study. In conclusion, this thesis studies the dynamic analysis of a special hybrid (serialparallel) robot for the above-mentioned special task involving the ITER and investigates different control algorithms that can significantly improve machining performance. These analyses and results provide valuable insight into the design and control of the parallel robot with flexible rods.

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Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia osingon irtoamispäivän tapahtumia OMX Helsinki 25:n yrityksillä vuosina 2005–2013. Vallitsevan käsityksen mukaan osakkeen hinta laskee irtoamispäivänä osingon verran +/- markkinoiden yleisestä hintamuutoksesta johtuva nousu/lasku. Käsitystä on pyritty murtamaan vuosien saatossa neljän eri teorian avulla, jotka ovat veroasiakaskuntateoria, lyhytaikaisen vaihdon hypoteesi, dynaaminen malli sekä mikrorakenneteoria. Osingon irtoamispäivää tarkastellaan kolmen eri tutkimuksen avulla ja saatuja tuloksia verrataan teoriaan sekä aikaisempiin löydöksiin. Tutkimusosuudet ovat kurssilaskusuhteet, epänormaalit tuotot sekä epänormaalit kaupankäyntivolyymit. Kurssilaskusuhdetta tarkastellaan vertaamalla cum-päivän ja irtoamispäivän osakkeiden hintojen erotusta maksetun osingon määrään. Epänormaaleja tuottoja ja epänormaaleja kaupankäyntivolyymejä tarkastellaan tapahtumatutkimus-menetelmällä viisi päivää ennen ja viisi päivää jälkeen osingon irtoamisen. Kurssilaskusuhteet olivat eri tavoilla laskettuina 77 – 94 %. Irtoamispäivän ympärillä oli havaittavissa 1,5 %:n negatiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja. Epänormaalit kaupankäyntivolyymit kasvoivat tasaisesti lähestyttäessä irtoamispäivää ja olivat voimakkaimmillaan irtoamispäivänä. Irtoamispäivän jälkeen kaupankäyntivolyymit palautuivat hiljalleen normaalille tasolle. Tulokset vastaavat aikaisempia löydöksiä kurssilaskusuhteita ja epänormaaleja volyymejä tarkasteltaessa, mutta eroavat epänormaaleissa tuotoissa.

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A post-keynesian macro-dynamic model of simulation. The objective of this article is to present the structure and the simulation results of a one-sector macro-dynamic model that embeds some elements of the post-keynesian theory. The computational simulation of the model replicates some important features of capitalist dynamics as the phenomenon of cyclical growth, the long-run stability of the profit rate and functional distribution of income, the maintenance of idle-capacity in the long-run and the occurrence of a single episode of deep fall in real economic activity, which is in accordance with the rarity character of great crashes in the history of capitalism. Moreover, the simulation results show that a great reduction in inflation rate will be followed by an increase of financial fragility, increasing the like-hood of a great depression. As a policy advice derived from the simulation results, we can state that the Central Bank should never promote big reductions in inflation rate.