Statistics critical in securing our food supply

“World food security … is at its lowest in half a century,” wrote Julian Cribb FTSE, a wellknown consultant in science communication and founding editor of www.sciencealert. com.au in the lead article in the 2008 ATSE Focus magazine issue entitled “Food for the world: the nation’s challenge”. Food security continues to be a key national and international concern and it is pleasing to see this issue of Focus again exploring aspects of the topic with the aim of continuing to raise awareness of issues and influencing relevant policy decisions. Statistics (or statistical science, more broadly) has been critical to the information and decision-making value chain needed to optimise agriculture and the food supply chain. The key steps are most often addressed by multidisciplinary research groups including statisticians in collaboration with life and physical scientists, agri-industry personnel and other relevant stakeholders.

Suicide, statistics and the coroner: A comparative study of death investigations

Australia has a significantly higher suicide rate than England. Rather than accepting that this ‘statistical fact’ is a direct reflection of some positivist truth, this paper begins with the premise that how suicide is counted depends upon what counts as suicide. This study involves semi-structured interviews with coroners both in Australia and England, as well as observations at inquests. Important differences between the two coronial systems include: first, quite different logics of operation; second, the burden of proof for reaching a finding of suicide is significantly higher in England; and third, the presence of family members at English inquests results in far greater pressure being brought to bear upon coroners. These combined factors result in a reduced likelihood of English coroners reaching a finding of suicide. The conclusions are twofold. First, this research supports existing criticisms of comparative suicide statistics. Second, this research adds theoretical weight to criticisms of positivist analyses of social phenomena.

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

Modes of criminal justice, indigenous youth and social democracy

The political question of how the will of a community is to be democratically formed and adhered to, the question of social democracy, is normatively tied to the mode of criminal justice employed within that democratic public sphere. Liberal, republican, procedural and communitarian forms of democratic will-formation respectively reflect retributive,restorative, procedural and co-operative modes of criminal justice. After first elaborating these links through the critical response of republican and procedural theories of democracy to the liberal practice of democratic will-formation and its retributive mode of justice, our discussion considers the recent practice of restorative and procedural justice with respect to Indigenous youth; and this in the context of a severely diminished role for Indigenous justice agencies in the public sphere. In light of certain shortcomings in both the restorative and procedural modes of justice, and so too with republican and procedural understandings of the democratic public sphere, we turn to a discussion of procedural communitarianism, anchored as it is in Dewey’s notion of social co-operation. From here we attempt a brief formulation of what a socially co-operative mode of justice might consist of; a mode of justice where historically racial and economically coercive injustices are sufficiently recognised.

Phenotyping cotton ovule fibre initiation with spatial statistics

Yield in cultivated cotton (Gossypium spp.) is affected by the number and distribution of fibres initiated on the seed surface but, apart from simple statistical summaries, little has been done to assess this phenotype quantitatively. Here we use two types of spatial statistics to describe and quantify differences in patterning of cotton ovule fibre initials (FI). The following five different species of Gossypium were analysed: G. hirsutum L., G. barbadense L., G. arboreum, G. raimondii Ulbrich. and G. trilobum (DC.) Skovsted. Scanning electron micrographs of FIs were taken on the day of anthesis. Cell centres for fibre and epidermal cells were digitised and analysed by spatial statistics methods appropriate for marked point processes and tessellations. Results were consistent with previously published reports of fibre number and spacing. However, it was shown that the spatial distributions of FIs in all of species examined exhibit regularity, and are not completely random as previously implied. The regular arrangement indicates FIs do not appear independently of each other and we surmise there may be some form of mutual inhibition specifying fibre-initial development. It is concluded that genetic control of FIs differs from that of stomata, another well studied plant idioblast. Since spatial statistics show clear species differences in the distribution of FIs within this genus, they provide a useful method for phenotyping cotton. © CSIRO 2007.

Statistics at play

Three core components in developing children’s understanding and appreciation of data — establish a context, pose and answer statistical questions, represent and interpret data — lay the foundation for the fourth component: use data to enhance existing context.

Criminal Justice Ethics : Cultivating the Moral Imagination

It is essential for those employed within the justice system to be able to competently and confidently work at the borders between ethics and the law. Criminal Justice Ethics offers a fresh new approach to considering ethical issues in a criminal justice context. Rather than simply offering a range of ethical dilemmas specific to various justice professionals, it provides extensive discussion of how individuals develop their 'moral imaginations' using ethical perspectives and practices, both as citizens of the world and as practitioners of justice. Starting from a consideration of the major ethical theories, this book sets the framework for an expansive discussion of ethics by moving from theory to consider the just society and the role of the justice professional within it. Each chapter provides detailed analysis of relevant ethical issues, and activities to engage students with the content, as well as review questions, which can be used for revision or examination. This book will help students to: • understand the various theoretical approaches to ethics, • apply these understandings to issues in society and the justice process, • assist in developing the ability to investigate, discuss, and analyse current ethical issues in criminal justice, • appreciate the diverse nature of ethical systems across cultures, • outline strategies for detecting and resolving ethical dilemmas. Rich with examples and ethical dilemmas from a broad range of contexts, this book's multicultural approach will appeal not only to criminal justice educators, but also to academics, students and practitioners approaching criminal justice from sociological, psychological or philosophical perspectives.

Criminal profiling

One of the more widely recognized and practiced subspecialities within forensic criminology is that of criminal profiling. It has a long history, as detailed in Turvey (2008a). It also boasts a small library of distinct literature, with different methods and subspecialities all its own. Criminal profiling is a practice that has seen increasing popular and media attention over the past several decades. It has been depicted in popular fiction such as films like Silence of the Lambs (1991) and television programs like Criminal Minds (2005– present). It has also been applied in a number of high profile cases, including the “Washington Snipers” (see Turvey and McGrath, 2005, for an extended discussion of profiling and the media in the D.C. Sniper case). As a result, students of criminology commonly express an interest in studying criminal profiling with a view to becoming profilers themselves.

Criminal profiling : behavioural consistency, the homology assumption and case linkage

Criminal profiling is an investigative tool used around the world to infer the personality and behavioural characteristics of an offender based on their crime. Case linkage, the process of determining discreet connections between crimes of the same offender, is a practice that falls under the general banner of criminal profiling and has been widely criticized. Two theories, behavioural consistency and the homology assumption, are examined and their impact on profiling in general and case linkage specifically is discussed...

Summarising and reporting sugarcane locomotive run statistics from TOTools and GPS data

The majority of sugar mill locomotives are equipped with GPS devices from which locomotive position data is stored. Locomotive run information (e.g. start times, run destinations and activities) is electronically stored in software called TOTools. The latest software development allows TOTools to interpret historical GPS information by combining this data with run information recorded in TOTools and geographic information from a GIS application called MapInfo. As a result, TOTools is capable of summarising run activity details such as run start and finish times and shunt activities with great accuracy. This paper presents 15 reports developed to summarise run activities and speed information. The reports will be of use pre-season to assist in developing the next year's schedule and for determining priorities for investment in the track infrastructure. They will also be of benefit during the season to closely monitor locomotive run performance against the existing schedule.

How do experts think about statistics? Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training

Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.

‘Not a criminal in the classic sense': @DrRimmer on the sentencing of Jono Moylan #leardblockade #standwithjono

On July 25, 2014, Justice David Davies sentenced Jonathan Moylan at the Supreme Court of New South Wales for a breach of section 1041E (1) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The ruling is a careful and deliberate decision, showing equipoise. Justice Davies has a reputation for being a thoughtful and philosophical adjudicator. The judge convicted and sentenced Moylan to imprisonment for 1 year and 8 months. The judge ordered that Moylan be “immediately released upon giving security by way of recognisance in the sum of $1000 to be of good behaviour for a period of 2 years commencing today”.

Introducing the practice of statistics: are we environmentally friendly?

The practice of statistics is the focus of the world in which professional statisticians live. To understand meaningfully what this practice is about, students need to engage in it themselves. Acknowledging the limitations of a genuine classroom setting, this study attempted to expose four classes of year 5 students (n=91) to an authentic experience of the practice of statistics. Setting an overall context of people’s habits that are considered environmentally friendly, the students sampled their class and set criteria for being environmentally friendly based on questions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics CensusAtSchool site. They then analysed the data and made decisions, acknowledging their degree of certainty, about three populations based on their criteria: their class, year 5 students in their school and year 5 students in Australia. The next step was to collect a random sample the size of their class from an Australian Bureau of Statistics ‘population’, analyse it and again make a decision about Australian year 5 students. At the end, they suggested what further research they might do. The analysis of students’ responses gives insight into primary students’ capacity to appreciate and understand decision making, and to participate in the practice of statistics, a topic that has received very little attention in the literature. Based on the total possible score of 23 from student workbook entries, 80 % of students achieved at least a score of 11.