Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Information technology service management: an experimental approach towards IT service prediction

Dissertation presented to obtain a Masters degree in Computer Science

Sistema avançado de previsão de vendas para as lojas Pingo Doce do grupo Jerónimo Martins

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Framework for a business interoperability quotient measurement model

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

e-Business: estratégias e modelos

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Business Intelligence – Aplicação prática no sector financeiro

Trabalho de Projecto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Teaching accounting and management through business simulation:

Everyday accounting and management teachers face the challenge of creating learning environments that motivate students. This chapter describes the Business Simulation (BS) experience that has taken place at the Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Institute of Accounting and Administration (IPP/ISCAP). The chapter presents students’ perceptions about the course and the teaching/learning approach. The results show that pedagogical methods used (competency-oriented), generic competencies (cooperation and group work), and interpersonal skills (organisational and communication skills) are relevant for future accounting professionals. In addition, positive remarks and possible constraints based on observation, staff meetings, and past research are reported. The chapter concludes with some recommendations from the project implementation.

Business micro-location: factors, preferences and indicators to assess the influence factors

The paper presents a study on business micro-location behaviour as well as corresponding factors of influence, conducted in two metropolitan areas, Bucharest-Ilfov (Romania) and Greater Porto (Portugal). By business micro-location we refer to a specific site such as a building or facility, accommodating a business within a small, compact geographical area (e.g. metropolitan area). At this geographical scale, the macroeconomic layer factors were excluded, applicable when discern between regions or countries. The factors derived from location theory and previous empirical studies were surveyed, completing a cross-sectional analysis in order to find out the specific weights of the location factors and preferences, by region and by industry. Based on already established firms’ feedback on location, the specific weights were granted by each industry to the main location factors, types of areas, and types of accommodation facilities. The authors also suggested a model to integrate these results into a Geographical Information System (GIS).

Performance management in a family business: a case study

This research, still at an early stage, and then presented in a poster format, intended to explain the management of organizational performance of a family business in the succession process using the case study method. The scripts for semi-structured interviews that will apply to managers, owners and other workers who are deemed suitable for the investigation, which include relatives of the owners of the company are being developed. For this work the model of organizational performance management developed by David Otley in 1999 [1], consisting of five questions that seek to explain the existing performance management in any organization is utilized.

ISO 9001 and business performance: a quantitative study in portuguese organizations

The effects of ISO 9001 quality certification process inside an organization may be considered on a wide range. This article places this phenomenon under a theoretical perspective and aims to analyze the impact of ISO 9001 quality standard on business performance according to the financial information data. More specifically, the impact of ISO 9001on productivity, business value and increase on sales is viewed through an econometric model of analysis concerning a panel data of Portuguese companies from the agro-food and to the construction sector. This analysis has presented interesting different results and in brief revealed that it may not be deterministically ascertained a direct connection between ISO 9001 certification and the improvement on business performance. Many other variables are committed to its success.

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

The need of performance indicators for collaborative business ecosystems

During last decades there has been a trend to build collaboration platforms as enablers for groups of enterprises to jointly provide integrated services and products. As a result, the notion of business ecosystem is getting wider acceptance. However, a critical issue that is still open, despite some efforts in this area, is the identification of adequate performance indicators to measure and motivate sustainable collaboration. This work-in-progress addresses this concern, briefly presenting the state of the art of relevant contributing areas such as, collaborative networks, business ecosystems, enterprise performance indicators, social networks analysis, and supply chains. Complementarily, through an assessment of current gaps, the research challenges are identified and an approach for further development is proposed.