Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Several studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderateeven when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values ofthe weights.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Parallelizing remote sensing image geometric correction

Remote sensing spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions of images, acquired over a reasonably sized image extent, result in imagery that can be processed to represent land cover over large areas with an amount of spatial detail that is very attractive for monitoring, management, and scienti c activities. With Moore's Law alive and well, more and more parallelism is introduced into all computing platforms, at all levels of integration and programming to achieve higher performance and energy e ciency. Being the geometric calibration process one of the most time consuming processes when using remote sensing images, the aim of this work is to accelerate this process by taking advantage of new computing architectures and technologies, specially focusing in exploiting computation over shared memory multi-threading hardware. A parallel implementation of the most time consuming process in the remote sensing geometric correction has been implemented using OpenMP directives. This work compares the performance of the original serial binary versus the parallelized implementation, using several multi-threaded modern CPU architectures, discussing about the approach to nd the optimum hardware for a cost-e ective execution.

Programming and analysing measurement experiments using the PicoCricket system

The aim of this project is to get used to another kind of programming. Since now, I used very complex programming languages to develop applications or even to program microcontrollers, but PicoCricket system is the evidence that we don’t need so complex development tools to get functional devices. PicoCricket system is the clear example of simple programming to make devices work the way we programmed it. There’s an easy but effective way to program small, devices just saying what we want them to do. We cannot do complex algorithms and mathematical operations but we can program them in a short time. Nowadays, the easier and faster we produce, the more we earn. So the tendency is to develop fast, cheap and easy, and PicoCricket system can do it.

On the binary nature of the γ-ray sources AGL J2241+4454 (= MWC 656) and HESS J0632+057 (= MWC 148)

We present optical spectroscopy of MWC 656 and MWC 148, the proposed optical counterparts of the gamma-ray sources AGL J2241+4454 and HESS J0632+0 57, respectively. The main parameters of the Halpha emission line (EW, FWHM and centroid velocity) in these stars are modulated on the proposed orbital periods of 60.37 and 321 days, respectively. These modulations are likely produced by the resonant interaction of the Be discs with compact stars in eccentric orbits. We also present radial velocity curves of the optical stars folded on the above periods and obtain the first orbital elements of the two gamma-ray sources thus confirming their binary nature. Our orbital solution support eccentricities e~0.4 and 0.83+-0.08 for MWC 656 and MWC 148, respectively. Further, our orbital elements imply that the X-ray outbursts in HESS J0632+057/MWC 148 are delayed ~0.3 orbital phases after periastron passage, similarly to the case of LS I +61 303. In addition, the optical photometric light curve maxima in AGL J2241+4454/MWC 656 occur ~0.25 phases passed periastron, similar to what is seen in LS I +61 303. We also find that the orbital eccentricity is correlated with orbital period for the known gamma-ray binaries. This is explained by the fact that small stellar separations are required for the efficient triggering of VHE radiation. Another correlation between the EW of Halpha and orbital period is also observed, similarly to the case of Be/X-ray binaries. These correlations are useful to provide estimates of the key orbital parameters Porb and e from the Halpha line in future Be gamma-ray binary candidates.

Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty

We study the strategic interaction between a decision maker who needs to take a binary decision but is uncertain about relevant facts and an informed expert who can send a message to the decision maker but has a preference over the decision.We show that the probability that the expert can persuade the decision maker to take the expert's preferred decision is a hump-shaped function of his costs of sending dishonest messages.

Report to the Governor and General Assembly on the Status of Out-of School Arts Programming for Youth, December 2006

In the 2006 Iowa General Assembly, House File 2797 called for a study on the status of afterschool arts programs and appropriated $5,000 for the study. In accordance with the legislation, the Iowa Arts Council, who received the charge, contracted with the Iowa Afterschool Alliance to form a Resource Group of out-of-school arts providers and experts to develop and oversee the study, review its results, and make recommendations for the expansion of arts programs that operate outside the normal school day. As a part of its charge in HF 2797, the Iowa Arts Council also documented a sampling of out-of-school arts programs statewide. Five are featured in this report.

New insights on the crystalline forms in binary systems of n-alkanes: Characterization of the solid ordered phases in the phase diagram tricosane + pentacosane

X-ray diffraction analyses of the pure components n-tricosane and n-pentacosane and of their binary mixed samples have enabled us to characterize the crystalline phases observed at low temperature. On the contrary to what was announced in literature on the structural behavior of mixed samples in odd-odd binary systems with D n = 2, the three domains are not all orthorhombic. This work has enabled us to show that two of the domains are, in fact, monoclinic, (Aa, Z = 4) and the other one is orthorhombic (Pca21, Z = 4). The conclusions drawn in this work can be easily transposed to other binary systems of n-alkanes.

Domain growth in binary mixtures at low temperatures

We have studied domain growth during spinodal decomposition at low temperatures. We have performed a numerical integration of the deterministic time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation with a variable, concentration-dependent diffusion coefficient. The form of the pair-correlation function and the structure function are independent of temperature but the dynamics is slower at low temperature. A crossover between interfacial diffusion and bulk diffusion mechanisms is observed in the behavior of the characteristic domain size. This effect is explained theoretically in terms of an equation of motion for the interface.

Vacancy-driven ordering in a two-dimensional binary alloy

Domain growth in a system with nonconserved order parameter is studied. We simulate the usual Ising model for binary alloys with concentration 0.5 on a two-dimensional square lattice by Monte Carlo techniques. Measurements of the energy, jump-acceptance ratio, and order parameters are performed. Dynamics based on the diffusion of a single vacancy in the system gives a growth law faster than the usual Allen-Cahn law. Allowing vacancy jumps to next-nearest-neighbor sites is essential to prevent vacancy trapping in the ordered regions. By measuring local order parameters we show that the vacancy prefers to be in the disordered regions (domain boundaries). This naturally concentrates the atomic jumps in the domain boundaries, accelerating the growth compared with the usual exchange mechanism that causes jumps to be homogeneously distributed on the lattice.

Monte Carlo study of the relation between vacancy diffusion and domain growth in two-dimensional binary alloys

Domain growth in a two-dimensional binary alloy is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulation of an ABV model. The dynamics consists of exchanges of particles with a small concentration of vacancies. The influence of changing the vacancy concentration and finite-size effects has been analyzed. Features of the vacancy diffusion during domain growth are also studied. The anomalous character of the diffusion due to its correlation with local order is responsible for the obtained fast-growth behavior.

Monte Carlo Study of the Growth of L12 ordered domains in fcc A3B binary alloys

A Monte Carlo study of the late time growth of L12-ordered domains in a fcc A3B binary alloy is presented. The energy of the alloy has been modeled by a nearest-neighbor interaction Ising Hamiltonian. The system exhibits a fourfold degenerated ground state and two kinds of interfaces separating ordered domains: flat and curved antiphase boundaries. Two different dynamics are used in the simulations: the standard atom-atom exchange mechanism and the more realistic vacancy-atom exchange mechanism. The results obtained by both methods are compared. In particular we study the time evolution of the excess energy, the structure factor and the mean distance between walls. In the case of atom-atom exchange mechanism anisotropic growth has been found: two characteristic lengths are needed in order to describe the evolution. Contrarily, with the vacancyatom exchange mechanism scaling with a single length holds. Results are contrasted with existing experiments in Cu3Au and theories for anisotropic growth.

Comparison between molecular dynamics abd Monte Carlo simulations of an ordering process in a binary alloy

Ordering in a binary alloy is studied by means of a molecular-dynamics (MD) algorithm which allows to reach the domain growth regime. Results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations using a realistic vacancy-atom (MC-VA) mechanism. At low temperatures fast growth with a dynamical exponent x>1/2 is found for MD and MC-VA. The study of a nonequilibrium ordering process with the two methods shows the importance of the nonhomogeneity of the excitations in the system for determining its macroscopic kinetics.