Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Why Cyber Security is Hard

Abstract There has been a great deal of interest in the area of cyber security in recent years. But what is cyber security exactly? And should society really care about it? We look at some of the challenges of being an academic working in the area of cyber security and explain why cyber security is, to put it rather simply, hard! Speaker Biography Keith Martin Prof. Keith Martin is Professor of Information Security at Royal Holloway, University of London. He received his BSc (Hons) in Mathematics from the University of Glasgow in 1988 and a PhD from Royal Holloway in 1991. Between 1992 and 1996 he held a Research Fellowship at the University of Adelaide, investigating mathematical modelling of cryptographic key distribution problems. In 1996 he joined the COSIC research group of the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium, working on security for third generation mobile communications. Keith rejoined Royal Holloway in January 2000, became a Professor in Information Security in 2007 and was Director of the Information Security Group between 2010 and 2015. Keith's research interests range across cyber security, but with a focus on cryptographic applications. He is the author of 'Everyday Cryptography' published by Oxford University Press.

O Balanced Scorecard como Ferramenta de Gestão Estratégica numa Clínica Oftalmológica

O presente trabalho visa propor a implementação do BSC numa Clínica Oftalmológica, procurando desenvolver um esboço de um scorecard, e do correspondente mapa estratégico, com as respetivas perspetivas, objetivos, metas, indicadores e iniciativas estratégicas. Concluímos que o BSC configura-se de grande utilidade para a gestão da Clínica, nomeadamente ao fornecer aos funcionários uma linha clara da visão sobre a forma como as suas funções estão ligadas aos objetivos globais da organização; ao definir prioridades; ao identificar, racionalizar e alinhar as diversas iniciativas; ao ligar a estratégia com a afetação dos recursos disponíveis e ao incentivar a aprendizagem e a melhoria.

O Balanced Scorecard em Entidades Sem Fins Lucrativos: um Estudo de Caso

O presente trabalho visa desenvolver um modelo de Balanced Scorecard (BSC) para uma organização sem fins lucrativos cuja atividade se centra no ensino do xadrez. Desta forma, procura-se dotar a organização de uma ferramenta de gestão que permita medir o seu desempenho e o valor que acrescenta à sociedade e delinear uma estratégia de longo prazo consistente e sustentável. Concluímos que o BSC é uma ferramenta que permitirá definir a estratégia de uma forma mais clara e objetiva, possibilitando uma maior consciência da importância de uma organização interna que possibilite atingir os objetivos definidos através de um conjunto de iniciativas.

The MOOC Dashboard: Visualising MOOC data for everyone

Abstract Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) generate enormous amounts of data. The University of Southampton has run and is running dozens of MOOC instances. The vast amount of data resulting from our MOOCs can provide highly valuable information to all parties involved in the creation and delivery of these courses. However, analysing and visualising such data is a task that not all educators have the time or skills to undertake. The recently developed MOOC Dashboard is a tool aimed at bridging such a gap: it provides reports and visualisations based on the data generated by learners in MOOCs. Speakers Manuel Leon is currently a Lecturer in Online Teaching and Learning in the Institute for Learning Innovation and Development (ILIaD). Adriana Wilde is a Teaching Fellow in Electronics and Computer Science, with research interests in MOOCs and Learning Analytics. Darron Tang (4th Year BEng Computer Science) and Jasmine Cheng (BSc Mathematics & Actuarial Science and starting MSc Data Science shortly) have been working as interns over this Summer (2016) as have been developing the MOOC Dashboard.

Multilevel processes and cultural adaptation: examples from past and present small-scale societies

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of “cultural adaptation” from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

The Importance of Learning History and Philosophy of Computing

Computers have invaded our offices, our homes, cars and coffee-pots; they have become ubiquitous. However, the advance of computing technologies is associated with an increasing lack of “visibility” of the underlying software and hardware technologies. While we use and accept the computer, we neither know its history nor functionality. In this paper, we argue that this is not a healthy situation. Also, recruitment onto UK Computing degree courses is steadily falling; these courses are appearing less attractive to school-leavers. This may be associated with the increasing ubiquity. In this paper we reflect on an MSc. module of instruction, Concepts and Philosophy of Computing, and a BSc. module Computer Games Development developed at the University of Worcester which address these issues. We propose that the elements of these modules form a necessary part of the education of all citizens, and we suggest how this may be realized. We also suggest how to re-enthuse our youth about computing as a discipline and halt the drop in recruitment.

The Importance of Learning History and Philosophy of Computing

Computers have invaded our offices, our homes, cars and coffee-pots; they have become ubiquitous. However, the advance of computing technologies is associated with an increasing lack of “visibility” of the underlying software and hardware technologies. While we use and accept the computer, we neither know its history nor functionality. In this paper, we argue that this is not a healthy situation. Also, recruitment onto UK Computing degree courses is steadily falling; these courses are appearing less attractive to school-leavers. This may be associated with the increasing ubiquity. In this paper we reflect on an MSc. module of instruction, Concepts and Philosophy of Computing, and a BSc. module Computer Games Development developed at the University of Worcester which address these issues. We propose that the elements of these modules form a necessary part of the education of all citizens, and we suggest how this may be realized. We also suggest how to re-enthuse our youth about computing as a discipline and halt the drop in recruitment.

O modelo de gestão estratégica do Ministério Público do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte: a análise da implantação do Balanced Scorecard

The goal of this research was to analyze the model of strategic management of the MPRN concerning the methodological guidelines presented by Balanced Scorecard. It is based in a theoretical referential which contemplates the themes, new public management, strategic management and Balanced Scorecard, focusing on applying the methodology in the public sector. This research is classified as descriptive and exploratory. According to the methods applied, it is a case study and, according to its approach, it is qualitative. The subjects of this research are members of the institution involved in the process of its strategic management. The data was collected by means of semi-structured interviews and document analysis, done by means of method content analysis. Concerning the goal of this research, it points out that the MPRN has not concluded the implantation cycle of Balanced Scorecard, furthermore, important flaws in the steps of organizational alingment have been identified, specially when it refers to communication policy, implementing incentive actions and focused training in developing competences. It yet reveals that the implantation of BSC has allowed the introduction of changes in the Institution dynamics to seek better results, however the MPRN has faced and has not adequately gotten over the same difficulties reported in various cases of BSC implantation in public organizations

Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

From crime to court - an experience report of a digital forensics group project module.

This paper discusses the large-scale group project undertaken by BSc Hons Digital Forensics students at Abertay University in their penultimate year. The philosophy of the project is to expose students to the full digital crime "life cycle", from commission through investigation, preparation of formal court report and finally, to prosecution in court. In addition, the project is novel in two aspects; the "crimes" are committed by students, and the moot court proceedings, where students appear as expert witnesses for the prosecution, are led by law students acting as counsels for the prosecution and defence. To support students, assessments are staged across both semesters with staff feedback provided at critical points. Feedback from students is very positive, highlighting particularly the experience of engaging with the law students and culminating in the realistic moot court, including a challenging cross-examination. Students also commented on the usefulness of the final debrief, where the whole process and the student experience is discussed in an informal plenary meeting between DF students and staff, providing an opportunity for the perpetrators and investigators to discuss details of the "crimes", and enabling all groups to learn from all crimes and investigations. We conclude with a reflection on the challenges encountered and a discussion of planned changes.

Balanced Scorecard para o serviço de urgência geral

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Desenvolvimento do balanced scorecard na Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão de Águeda da Universidade de Aveiro

O Balanced Scorecard (BSC) é uma ferramenta de avaliação e gestão de desempenho e de gestão estratégica, que tem como objetivo auxiliar a gestão das organizações. O objetivo principal do presente trabalho foi propor um BSC para uma escola superior politécnica pública, com o propósito de proporcionar à gestão da instituição uma ferramenta que permita melhorar o desempenho organizacional. O estudo foi realizado na Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão de Águeda (ESTGA-UA), uma escola politécnica integrada na Universidade de Aveiro, uma instituição de ensino superior pública. O BSC foi desenvolvido recorrendo à análise documental de documentos internos e de legislação e a entrevistas semiestruturadas efetuadas ao Diretor da ESTGA-UA, aos diretores de curso, a funcionários não docentes e a estudantes. Foi igualmente utilizada a observação participante. Dada a pertinência desta ferramenta no auxílio à melhoria do desempenho e à gestão organizacional, sugere-se a implementação do BSC proposto na ESTGA-UA.

A systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of targeted therapies for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Background: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) imposes a substantial burden on patients, health care systems and society due to increasing incidence and poor survival rates. In recent years, advances in the treatment of metastatic NSCLC have resulted from the introduction of targeted therapies. However, the application of these new agents increases treatment costs considerably. The objective of this article is to review the economic evidence of targeted therapies in metastatic NSCLC. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify cost-effectiveness (CE) as well as cost-utility studies. Medline, Embase, SciSearch, Cochrane, and 9 other databases were searched from 2000 through April 2013 (including update) for full-text publications. The quality of the studies was assessed via the validated Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) instrument. Results: Nineteen studies (including update) involving the MoAb bevacizumab and the Tyrosine-kinase inhibitors erlotinib and gefitinib met all inclusion criteria. The majority of studies analyzed the CE of first-line maintenance and second-line treatment with erlotinib. Five studies dealt with bevacizumab in first-line regimes. Gefitinib and pharmacogenomic profiling were each covered by only two studies. Furthermore, the available evidence was of only fair quality. Conclusion: First-line maintenance treatment with erlotinib compared to Best Supportive Care (BSC) can be considered cost-effective. In comparison to docetaxel, erlotinib is likely to be cost-effective in subsequent treatment regimens as well. The insights for bevacizumab are miscellaneous. There are findings that gefitinib is cost-effective in first- and second-line treatment, however, based on only two studies. The role of pharmacogenomic testing needs to be evaluated. Therefore, future research should improve the available evidence and consider pharmacogenomic profiling as specified by the European Medicines Agency. Upcoming agents like crizotinib and afatinib need to be analyzed as well. © Lange et al.

O modelo de gestão estratégica do Ministério Público do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte: a análise da implantação do Balanced Scorecard

The goal of this research was to analyze the model of strategic management of the MPRN concerning the methodological guidelines presented by Balanced Scorecard. It is based in a theoretical referential which contemplates the themes, new public management, strategic management and Balanced Scorecard, focusing on applying the methodology in the public sector. This research is classified as descriptive and exploratory. According to the methods applied, it is a case study and, according to its approach, it is qualitative. The subjects of this research are members of the institution involved in the process of its strategic management. The data was collected by means of semi-structured interviews and document analysis, done by means of method content analysis. Concerning the goal of this research, it points out that the MPRN has not concluded the implantation cycle of Balanced Scorecard, furthermore, important flaws in the steps of organizational alingment have been identified, specially when it refers to communication policy, implementing incentive actions and focused training in developing competences. It yet reveals that the implantation of BSC has allowed the introduction of changes in the Institution dynamics to seek better results, however the MPRN has faced and has not adequately gotten over the same difficulties reported in various cases of BSC implantation in public organizations