Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztás példáján (Adaptive decision-making on example of the supplier selection)

Ez a tanulmány a projektvezetési szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem előtt tartva (noha tételesen nem hivatkozva arra) tárja fel azt a sajátos és tipikusnak nevezhető kontextust, amelyben a projektalapú szervezetek projektmarketing tevékenysége megnyilvánul. A tanulmány célja tehát nem magának a projektmarketingnek a kérdéskörére irányul, hanem elsősorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusára. Jellegét illetően a tanulmány spekulatív jellegű, vagyis lényegét tekintve nem empirikus kutatási eredményekből levont következtetésekre épül. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism – the metastructure and the attitude set –, the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.

Unravelling the evolution of autumn colours: an interdisciplinary approach.

Leaf colour change is commonly observed in temperate deciduous forests in autumn. This is not simply a side effect of leaf senescence, and, in the past decade, several hypotheses have emerged to explain the evolution of autumn colours. Yet a lack of crosstalk between plant physiologists and evolutionary ecologists has resulted in slow progress, and so the adaptive value of this colour change remains a mystery. Here we provide an interdisciplinary summary of the current body of knowledge on autumn colours, and discuss unresolved issues and future avenues of research that might help reveal the evolutionary meaning of this spectacle of nature.

Drivers of Dengue Within-Host Dynamics and Virulence Evolution

Dengue is an important vector-borne virus that infects on the order of 400 million individuals per year. Infection with one of the virus's four serotypes (denoted DENV-1 to 4) may be silent, result in symptomatic dengue 'breakbone' fever, or develop into the more severe dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Extensive research has therefore focused on identifying factors that influence dengue infection outcomes. It has been well-documented through epidemiological studies that DHF is most likely to result from a secondary heterologous infection, and that individuals experiencing a DENV-2 or DENV-3 infection typically are more likely to present with more severe dengue disease than those individuals experiencing a DENV-1 or DENV-4 infection. However, a mechanistic understanding of how these risk factors affect disease outcomes, and further, how the virus's ability to evolve these mechanisms will affect disease severity patterns over time, is lacking. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I formulate mechanistic mathematical models of primary and secondary dengue infections that describe how the dengue virus interacts with the immune response and the results of this interaction on the risk of developing severe dengue disease. I show that only the innate immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a primary infection whereas the adaptive immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. I then add to these models a quantitative measure of disease severity that assumes immunopathology, and analyze the effectiveness of virological indicators of disease severity. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I then statistically fit these mathematical models to viral load data of dengue patients to understand the mechanisms that drive variation in viral load. I specifically consider the roles that immune status, clinical disease manifestation, and serotype may play in explaining viral load variation observed across the patients. With this analysis, I show that there is statistical support for the theory of antibody dependent enhancement in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections and that there is statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of DENV-2 and DENV-3 exceeding those of DENV-1. In the fourth chapter of my dissertation, I integrate these within-host models with a vector-borne epidemiological model to understand the potential for virulence evolution in dengue. Critically, I show that dengue is expected to evolve towards intermediate virulence, and that the optimal virulence of the virus depends strongly on the number of serotypes that co-circulate. Together, these dissertation chapters show that dengue viral load dynamics provide insight into the within-host mechanisms driving differences in dengue disease patterns and that these mechanisms have important implications for dengue virulence evolution.

Parallel dynamic load-balancing for adaptive unstructured meshes

This chapter describes a parallel optimization technique that incorporates a distributed load-balancing algorithm and provides an extremely fast solution to the problem of load-balancing adaptive unstructured meshes. Moreover, a parallel graph contraction technique can be employed to enhance the partition quality and the resulting strategy outperforms or matches results from existing state-of-the-art static mesh partitioning algorithms. The strategy can also be applied to static partitioning problems. Dynamic procedures have been found to be much faster than static techniques, to provide partitions of similar or higher quality and, in comparison, involve the migration of a fraction of the data. The method employs a new iterative optimization technique that balances the workload and attempts to minimize the interprocessor communications overhead. Experiments on a series of adaptively refined meshes indicate that the algorithm provides partitions of an equivalent or higher quality to static partitioners (which do not reuse the existing partition) and much more quickly. The dynamic evolution of load has three major influences on possible partitioning techniques; cost, reuse, and parallelism. The unstructured mesh may be modified every few time-steps and so the load-balancing must have a low cost relative to that of the solution algorithm in between remeshing.

Examining the growth and evolution of magnetic fields in clusters of galaxies: a numerical perspective

Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in galaxy cluster atmospheres and have a variety of astrophysical and cosmological consequences. Magnetic fields can contribute to the pressure support of clusters, affect thermal conduction, and modify the evolution of bubbles driven by active galactic nuclei. However, we currently do not fully understand the origin and evolution of these fields throughout cosmic time. Furthermore, we do not have a general understanding of the relationship between magnetic field strength and topology and other cluster properties, such as mass and X-ray luminosity. We can now begin to answer some of these questions using large-scale cosmological magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the formation of galaxy clusters including the seeding and growth of magnetic fields. Using large-scale cosmological simulations with the FLASH code combined with a simplified model of the acceleration of cosmic rays responsible for the generation of radio halos, we find that the galaxy cluster frequency distribution and expected number counts of radio halos from upcoming low-frequency sur- veys are strongly dependent on the strength of magnetic fields. Thus, a more complete understanding of the origin and evolution of magnetic fields is necessary to understand and constrain models of diffuse synchrotron emission from clusters. One favored model for generating magnetic fields is through the amplification of weak seed fields in active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disks and their subsequent injection into cluster atmospheres via AGN-driven jets and bubbles. However, current large-scale cosmological simulations cannot directly include the physical processes associated with the accretion and feedback processes of AGN or the seeding and merging of the associated SMBHs. Thus, we must include these effects as subgrid models. In order to carefully study the growth of magnetic fields in clusters via AGN-driven outflows, we present a systematic study of SMBH and AGN subgrid models. Using dark-matter only cosmological simulations, we find that many important quantities, such as the relationship between SMBH mass and galactic bulge velocity dispersion and the merger rate of black holes, are highly sensitive to the subgrid model assumptions of SMBHs. In addition, using MHD calculations of an isolated cluster, we find that magnetic field strengths, extent, topology, and relationship to other gas quantities such as temperature and density are also highly dependent on the chosen model of accretion and feedback. We use these systematic studies of SMBHs and AGN inform and constrain our choice of subgrid models, and we use those results to outline a fully cosmological MHD simulation to study the injection and growth of magnetic fields in clusters of galaxies. This simulation will be the first to study the birth and evolution of magnetic fields using a fully closed accretion-feedback cycle, with as few assumptions as possible and a clearer understanding of the effects of the various parameter choices.

Information and the evolution of codon bias

The informational properties of biological systems are the subject of much debate and research. I present a general argument in favor of the existence and central importance of information in organisms, followed by a case study of the genetic code (specifically, codon bias) and the translation system from the perspective of information. The codon biases of 831 Bacteria and Archeae are analyzed and modeled as points in a 64-dimensional statistical space. The major results are that (1) codon bias evolution does not follow canonical patterns, and (2) the use of coding space in organsims is a subset of the total possible coding space. These findings imply that codon bias is a unique adaptive mechanism that owes its existence to organisms' use of information in representing genes, and that there is a particularly biological character to the resulting biased coding and information use.

Numerical investigations on the strain-adaptive bone remodelling in the periprosthetic femur: Influence of the boundary conditions

Background: There are several numerical investigations on bone remodelling after total hip arthroplasty (THA) on the basis of the finite element analysis (FEA). For such computations certain boundary conditions have to be defined. The authors chose a maximum of three static load situations, usually taken from the gait cycle because this is the most frequent dynamic activity of a patient after THA. Materials and methods: The numerical study presented here investigates whether it is useful to consider only one static load situation of the gait cycle in the FE calculation of the bone remodelling. For this purpose, 5 different loading cases were examined in order to determine their influence on the change in the physiological load distribution within the femur and on the resulting strain-adaptive bone remodelling. First, four different static loading cases at 25%, 45%, 65% and 85% of the gait cycle, respectively, and then the whole gait cycle in a loading regime were examined in order to regard all the different loadings of the cycle in the simulation. Results: The computed evolution of the apparent bone density (ABD) and the calculated mass losses in the periprosthetic femur show that the simulation results are highly dependent on the chosen boundary conditions. Conclusion: These numerical investigations prove that a static load situation is insufficient for representing the whole gait cycle. This causes severe deviations in the FE calculation of the bone remodelling. However, accompanying clinical examinations are necessary to calibrate the bone adaptation law and thus to validate the FE calculations.

In two waters: contemporary evolution of lagoonal and marine white seabream (Diplodus sargus) populations

Brackish water ecosystems are often exposed to wide variations in environmental variables, including temperature and salinity, which may cause strong selective pressures on organisms modifying the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to test whether there is a ‘divergence-with-gene flow’ in coastal lagoon populations of white seabream (Diplodus sargus) (Ria Formosa, S Portugal and Mar Menor, SE Spain) respect to four marine populations, by using partial sequences of cyt b mitochondrial gene and information from nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was highest in both coastal lagoons (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) considering mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Although some of FST population pairwise comparisons were not significant, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVAs) detected differences between groups (coastal lagoon and marine) close to significance. Also, only two haplotypes (Cytb-17 and Cytb-18) were detected in both coastal lagoon sampling sites and these localities (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) showed the highest number of singletons, some of them with a high number of mutations, as has been already described for other Mar Menor populations (Pomatochistus marmoratus and Holothuria polii). Also, several tests detected significant positive and balancing selection considering mtDNA and microsatellite data. These data support the hypothesis of selection as one of the drivers of the genetic differences found between coastal lagoon and marine populations. The life strategy adopted by Diplodus sargus in coastal lagoons allows it to decrease its mortality rate and improve the heritability of its genes. Also, the increase time spent in coastal lagoons with different temperatures and salinities favours the fitness selection and the maintenance of exclusive haplotypes and genotypes in coastal lagoon inhabitants favouring the ‘divergence-with-gene-flow’.

FROM GENES TO GENOMES: LOCAL ADAPTATION AND ADAPTIVE POTENTIAL IN TWO ARCTIC SEABIRDS

By investigating the mechanisms underlying the evolution and the maintenance of local adaptations we can help predict how species will adapt to future environmental change. In this thesis I investigate local adaptation and adaptive potential in thick-billed and common murres (Uria lomvia and U. aalge), two arctic seabirds of international conservation concern. Thanks to the recent development of new genomic methods, I address three major themes that are relevant for both the development of evolutionary theory and conservation: 1) the role of gene flow in the origin and maintenance of adaptation; 2) levels and distribution of standing genetic variation, and their contribution to adaptive potential; and 3) the genomic mechanisms maintaining an adaptive dimorphism within a single interbreeding population. First, I review the literature on genomics of local adaptation with gene flow and find that adaptation can be maintained despite gene flow, that gene flow itself can promote adaptation, and that genetic architecture is important in the origin and maintenance of local adaptations. Second, I genotype genome-wide markers and toll-like receptor genes (TLRs) to investigate local adaptation and adaptive potential in thick-billed murres. Thick-billed murres do not show signatures of local adaptation to their breeding grounds, but outlier loci group birds according to their non-breeding distributions, suggesting that selection and/or demographic connectivity in the winter may explain patterns of differentiation in this species. Genetic variation at TLRs does not decrease with increasing latitude as predicted, but tests of selection and measures of genetic diversity suggest differences in local selective regimes at most genes. Thick-billed murres show high levels of standing genetic variation and their adaptive potential will mostly depend on rate and magnitude of environmental change. Finally, I improve and annotate the assembly of the highly heterozygous genome of the thick-billed murre. Using this assembly as a reference, I perform whole genome analyses to investigate the genomic basis of an adaptive dimorphism in Atlantic common murres. I show for the first time that a 60 kb complex copy number variant in a non-coding region maintains differences in plumage and cold adaptation despite high gene flow.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Effects Of Therapeutic Approach On The Neonatal Evolution Of Very Low Birth Weight Infants With Patent Ductus Arteriosus.

To analyze the effects of treatment approach on the outcomes of newborns (birth weight [BW] < 1,000 g) with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), from the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network (BNRN) on: death, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH III/IV), retinopathy of prematurity requiring surgical (ROPsur), necrotizing enterocolitis requiring surgery (NECsur), and death/BPD. This was a multicentric, cohort study, retrospective data collection, including newborns (BW < 1000 g) with gestational age (GA) < 33 weeks and echocardiographic diagnosis of PDA, from 16 neonatal units of the BNRN from January 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2011. Newborns who died or were transferred until the third day of life, and those with presence of congenital malformation or infection were excluded. Groups: G1 - conservative approach (without treatment), G2 - pharmacologic (indomethacin or ibuprofen), G3 - surgical ligation (independent of previous treatment). Factors analyzed: antenatal corticosteroid, cesarean section, BW, GA, 5 min. Apgar score < 4, male gender, Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension (SNAPPE II), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), late sepsis (LS), mechanical ventilation (MV), surfactant (< 2 h of life), and time of MV. death, O2 dependence at 36 weeks (BPD36wks), IVH III/IV, ROPsur, NECsur, and death/BPD36wks. Student's t-test, chi-squared test, or Fisher's exact test; Odds ratio (95% CI); logistic binary regression and backward stepwise multiple regression. Software: MedCalc (Medical Calculator) software, version 12.1.4.0. p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. 1,097 newborns were selected and 494 newborns were included: G1 - 187 (37.8%), G2 - 205 (41.5%), and G3 - 102 (20.6%). The highest mortality was observed in G1 (51.3%) and the lowest in G3 (14.7%). The highest frequencies of BPD36wks (70.6%) and ROPsur were observed in G3 (23.5%). The lowest occurrence of death/BPD36wks occurred in G2 (58.0%). Pharmacological (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14-0.62) and conservative (OR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.79) treatments were protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks. The conservative approach of PDA was associated to high mortality, the surgical approach to the occurrence of BPD36wks and ROPsur, and the pharmacological treatment was protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.

Digestive Peptidase Evolution In Holometabolous Insects Led To A Divergent Group Of Enzymes In Lepidoptera.

Trypsins and chymotrypsins are well-studied serine peptidases that cleave peptide bonds at the carboxyl side of basic and hydrophobic l-amino acids, respectively. These enzymes are largely responsible for the digestion of proteins. Three primary processes regulate the activity of these peptidases: secretion, precursor (zymogen) activation and substrate-binding site recognition. Here, we present a detailed phylogenetic analysis of trypsins and chymotrypsins in three orders of holometabolous insects and reveal divergent characteristics of Lepidoptera enzymes in comparison with those of Coleoptera and Diptera. In particular, trypsin subsite S1 was more hydrophilic in Lepidoptera than in Coleoptera and Diptera, whereas subsites S2-S4 were more hydrophobic, suggesting different substrate preferences. Furthermore, Lepidoptera displayed a lineage-specific trypsin group belonging only to the Noctuidae family. Evidence for facilitated trypsin auto-activation events were also observed in all the insect orders studied, with the characteristic zymogen activation motif complementary to the trypsin active site. In contrast, insect chymotrypsins did not seem to have a peculiar evolutionary history with respect to their mammal counterparts. Overall, our findings suggest that the need for fast digestion allowed holometabolous insects to evolve divergent groups of peptidases with high auto-activation rates, and highlight that the evolution of trypsins led to a most diverse group of enzymes in Lepidoptera.

Meninos de rua ou de um beco sem saida?

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Wavelets And Adaptive Grids For The Discontinuous Galerkin Method

In this paper, space adaptivity is introduced to control the error in the numerical solution of hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. The reference numerical scheme is a new version of the discontinuous Galerkin method, which uses an implicit diffusive term in the direction of the streamlines, for stability purposes. The decision whether to refine or to unrefine the grid in a certain location is taken according to the magnitude of wavelet coefficients, which are indicators of local smoothness of the numerical solution. Numerical solutions of the nonlinear Euler equations illustrate the efficiency of the method. © Springer 2005.