The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper “Updating Ambiguos Beliefs” they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Ensinando sobre a natureza da ciência: uma abordagem explícita e contextualizada a partir da história do vácuo

In last decades, the importance of including the contents of the Nature of Science (NOS) in Science Education has been emphasized. Several studies have focused on investigating the conceptions of NOS, supported by students and teachers, as well as design, implement and evaluate proposals that aim to provide a reflection on this theme in the educational context. Considering the complexity of such content, studies indicate the need for explicit and contextualized approaches and the History of Science (HS) is one of the possible paths to this inclusion. We started from the premise that, through a historical study, that aims to discuss the meaning and the basis of our "beliefs", we can know the process of building on what we "believe" and better understand its meaning. This thesis is part of this perspective, proposing to explore the History of the Vacuum, a themed high didactic potential still little used, in order to collaborate with the teaching content of NOS. We present actions on different fronts that originated three products in the context of this research. On the first front, we insert the research and production of instructional materials (three historical texts) to subsidize people interested in the implementation of HPS for educational context through this material. The relevance of this front is justified by the existence of gaps with regard to the production of such material for the context of teacher training. However, we consider that the preparation of instructional material of good quality and accessible does not guarantee that these resources will be used, if they will not be accompanied by discussions in teacher training, on how to use them, contexts and obstacles to be faced. The second part presented refers to the organization and implementation of a workshop for undergraduate students in physics and physics teachers, considering the instrumentalization of these individuals to the preparation and use of teaching strategies to approach aspects of NOS through episodes of History of the Vacuum, as well as the preparation of the text orientation for people interested in implementing the instructional material for secondary education. This guidance text contemplates the difficulties anticipated by the literature of the area and the main challenges faced by the participants about the didactic transposition of HPS for the educational context they were noted during the workshop. The relevance of this second front, in particular, is justified by the existence of gaps with regard to the inclusion of the theme of NOS and the HPS teacher training

Valorização dos saberes astronômicos de uma aldeia indígena Terena no Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Educação para a Ciência - FC

Modelos didáticos dos professores: conhecimentos implícitos e explícitos de professores de Química em exercício

Pós-graduação em Educação para a Ciência - FC

Compensatory Health Beliefs Predict Maladaptive Coping, Impulsivity, and Erroneous Health Perceptions

Compensatory Health Beliefs (CHB) are a common strategy used to reduce the cognitive discomfort that arises from participating in recognizably unhealthy behaviors. The current research examines relationships between CHB and other cognitive variables. Data was collected in two phases, using survey methodology. Study 1 explored relationships between the use of CHB, impulsiveness, and coping styles. Study 2 expanded the inquiry by exploring relationships to health perception and knowledge. Results revealed that participants who scored high on overall CHB were more likely to: engage in maladaptive coping strategies (r = .47, p < .01) [including avoidant coping styles (r = .38, p < .01) and unhealthy coping styles (r = .47, p < .01)], score higher on measures of impulsivity (r = .43, p < .01), be well-informed about their general health (r =-.21, p < .05), eat fast food more often ( r = p < .05), and consider it safe to smoke more frequently (r = .18, p < .05). Participants with lower CHB scores considered themselves more well-informed about their general health (r = -.21, p < .05), including understanding the minimum recommended amounts of physical activity needed to maintain health (r = -.35, p < .01 ), and knowing the health risks of stress ( r = -.19, p < .05). In addition, maladaptive coping was positively correlated with lack of general health knowledge (r = -.22 p < .01), less understanding of the risks of stress and alcohol (r = .20, p < .05), less knowledge of the recommended daily amounts of physical activity needed for health (r = -.26, p < .01), less frequent exercise (r = -.26, p < .01 ), and generally more unhealthy daily habits (r = -.26, p < .01). These findings contribute to a new area of investigation and may be useful to those who want to motivate behavior change.

Student Writing Performance: Identifying the Effects when Combining Planning and Revising Instructional Strategies

The purpose of the current study is to identify the impact of teaching students to revise their stories on writing production (Total Words Written; TWW), writing accuracy (Percent Correct Writing Sequences; %CWS), number of critical story elements included in stories, and quality of writing. Three third-grade and one fourth-grade student who were experiencing difficulties in the area of writing were involved in the study. The students were first taught to plan their stories using the evidence-based program, Self-Regulated Strategy Development (SRSD), which has frequently been implemented to teach students to plan their stories. Students were then taught to revise their stories using SRSD procedures modified for instruction in revision strategies. Student progress was evaluated through a multiple-probe design across tasks and a multiple-probe design across participants, which allowed for experimental control over time and across story probes. In addition to the previously mentioned variables, student’s acceptability of the intervention and their attitudes toward writing were also assessed. Results indicated that instruction in revising increased student writing accuracy beyond the effects of instruction in planning. Additionally, although instruction in planning was shown to increase writing production, number of critical story elements, and quality of writing, instruction in revising produced additional improvement in these variables as well. Finally, results indicated that students liked the intervention and their attitudes toward writing generally increased. Implications for practice and future research directions will be discussed. Advisor: Merilee McCurdy

Food Handling Practices, Knowledge and Beliefs of Families with Young Children Based on the Health Belief Model

Objective: To determine current food handling practices, knowledge and beliefs of primary food handlers with children 10 years old and the relationship between these components. Design: Surveys were developed based on FightBac!™ concepts and the Health Belief Model (HBM) construct. Participants: The majority of participants (n= 503) were females (67%), Caucasians (80%), aged between 30 to 49 years old (83%), had one or two children (83%), prepared meals all or most of the time (76%) and consumed meals away from home three times or less per week (66%). Analysis: Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (rho) (p<0.05 and one-tail) and Chi-square were used to examine frequency and correlations. Results: Few participants reached the food safety objectives of Healthy People 2010 for safe food handling practices (79%). Mixed results were reported for perceived susceptibility. Only half of the participants (53-54%) reported high perceived severity for their children if they contracted food borne illness. Most participants were confident of their food handling practices for their children (91%) and would change their food handling practices if they or their family members previously experienced food poisoning (79%). Participants’ reasons for high self-efficacy were learning from their family and independently acquiring knowledge and skills from the media, internet or job. The three main barriers to safe food handling were insufficient time, lots of distractions and lack of control of the food handling practices of other people in the household. Participants preferred to use food safety information that is easy to understand, has scientific facts, causes feelings of health-threat and has lots of pictures or visuals. Participants demonstrate high levels of knowledge in certain areas of the FightBac!TM concepts but lacked knowledge in other areas. Knowledge and cues to action were most supportive of the HBM construct, while perceived susceptibility was least supportive of the HBM construct. Conclusion: Most participants demonstrate many areas to improve in their food handling practices, knowledge and beliefs. Adviser: Julie A. Albrecht

Two important but almost never related beliefs

Engelmann believes in two general strong beliefs. On one side, Engelmann believes in probabilistic skepticism. That the existence has its maximum probability or there is no existence at all is not possible. The other probabilities of existence are always possible. On the other hand, instead of elements that constitute a beginning arrived at by an unknown division, the Gestalt theory begins with wholes or Gestalten. These Gestalten can be divided in parts but each part can be only a part of his specific Gestalt. The majority of probabilistic skeptics and the majority of Gestalt theory followers do not believe they can be together accepted. On the contrary Engelmann is a member of a small group that both beliefs occur simultaneously. Bibace`s questions were each answered by Engelmann. In some questions Engelmann harmonize with Bibace, in others they disagree.

HEALTH BELIEFS REGARDING DIET: A PERSPECTIVE OF HYPERTENSIVE BLACK INDIVIDUALS

The objective of this descriptive-exploratory study was to identify the health beliefs of black individuals with hypertension regarding the barriers and benefits of diet for controlling the disease, including the sociodemographic factors associated with the health beliefs surrounding diet control. One hundred and six black adults with hypertension were interviewed using a specific instrument. The data were analyzed considering the percentages, frequency of the cases, scores and prevalence ratio. The global analysis of beliefs showed a preponderance of beliefs regarding the benefits of diet control. It was observed that men, younger individuals, lack of a partner and low educational level and income were related to the beliefs regarding the benefits of adopting a healthy diet. In conclusion, health promotion among the black population requires an interdisciplinary approach and specific health policies addressing this populations' needs, aimed at preventive and curative aspects.

Strategy as a matter of beliefs: the recorded music industry reinventing itself by rethinking itself

Managerial and organizational cognition studies the ways cognitions of managers in groups, organizations and industries shape their strategies and actions. Cognitions refer to simplified representations of managers’ internal and external environments, necessary to cope with the rich, ambiguous information requirements that characterize strategy making. Despite the important achievements in the field, many unresolved puzzles remain as to this process, particular as to the cognitive factors that condition actors in framing a response to a discontinuity, how actors can change their models in the face of a discontinuity, and the reciprocal relation between cognition and action. I leverage on the recent case of the recorded music industry in the face of the digital technology to study these issues, through a strategy-oriented study of the way early response to the discontinuity was constructed and of the subsequent evolution of this response. Through a longitudinal historical and cognitive analysis of actions and cognitions at both the industry and firm-level during the period in which the response took place (1999-2010), I gain important insights on the way historical beliefs in the industry shaped early response to the digital disruption, on the role of outsiders in promoting change through renewed vision about important issues, and on the reciprocal relationship between cognitive and strategic change.

Can health beliefs help in explaining attendance to follow-up care? The Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

Objective: Improved treatment has increased the survival of childhood cancer patients in recent decades, but follow-up care is recommended to detect and treat late effects. We investigated relationships between health beliefs and follow-up attendance in adult childhood cancer survivors. Methods: Childhood cancer survivors aged younger than 16 years when diagnosed between 1976 and 2003, who had survived for more than 5 years and were currently aged 201 years, received a postal questionnaire. We asked survivors whether they attended follow-up in the past year. Concepts from the Health Belief Model (perceived susceptibility and severity of future late effects, potential benefits and barriers to follow-up, general health value and cues to action) were assessed. Medical information was extracted from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Results: Of 1075 survivors (response rate 72.3%), 250 (23.3%) still attended regular followup care. In unadjusted analyses, all health belief concepts were significantly associated with follow-up (po0.05). Adjusting for other health beliefs, demographic, and medical variables, only barriers (OR50.59; 95%CI: 0.43–0.82) remained significant. Younger survivors, those with lower educational background, diagnosed at an older age, treated with chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or bone marrow transplantation and with a relapse were more likely to attend follow-up care. Conclusions: Our study showed that more survivors at high risk of cancer- and treatmentrelated late effects attend follow-up care in Switzerland. Patient-perceived barriers hinder attendance even after accounting for medical variables. Information about the potential effectiveness and value of follow-up needs to be available to increase the attendance among childhood cancer survivors.