Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Resources and capabilities approach to online strategy – Multiple-case study of Finnish magazines' online services

Most Finnish periodical magazines have a website, often an online service. The objective of this thesis is to understand the magazines’ resources and capabilities and match them with online strategies’ goals and objectives. The thesis’ theoretical part focuses on explaining and classifying resources, capabilities, goals and objectives, and applying everything into Finnish magazine publishing context. In the empirical part, there is a comparative case study of four magazines. The findings indicate that with cooperating, advertising and community hosting capabilities magazines may utilize their human, brand, content and customer base resources. The resources can be further addressed to reach profitability, customer-centricity and brand congruency goals.

In vitro sensitivity of Fusarium graminearum isolates to fungicides

Head blight of wheat is a disease of global importance. In Brazil, it can cause damage of up to 27%. As resistant cultivars are not available yet, short-term disease control relies on the use of fungicides. The first step to reach effective management is to identify potent fungicides. In vitro experiments were conducted to determine the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50) for mycelial growth or conidial germination, according to the chemical group of fungicides, of five Fusarium graminearum isolates of different origins. The following demethylation inhibitor (DMI) fungicides were tested: epoxiconazole, cyproconazole, metconazole, prochloraz, protioconazole and tebuconazole. In addition, azoxystrobin, kresoxim-methyl, pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin were included in the study, representing Quinone outside inhibitor fungicides (QoI), as well as a tubulin synthesis inhibitor, carbendazim and two ready mixtures, trifloxystrobin + tebuconazole or trifloxistrobin + prothioconazole. DMI's showed lower IC50 values compared to the QoI's. For the five tested isolates, in the overall mean, IC50 considering mycelial growth ranged for DMI's from 0.01 mg/L (metconazole, prochloraz and prothioconazole) to 0.12 mg/L (cyproconazole) and considering conidial germination for QoI's from 0.21 mg/L (azoxystrobin) to 1.33 mg/L (trifloxystrobin). The IC50 for carbendazim was 0.07 mg/L. All tested isolates can be considered sensitive to the studied DMI's, although certain differences in sensitivity could be detected between the isolates originating from one same state.

Software Security Vulnerabilities in Mobile Peer-to-peer Environment

Increase of computational power and emergence of new computer technologies led to popularity of local communications between personal trusted devices. By-turn, it led to emergence of security problems related to user data utilized in such communications. One of the main aspects of the data security assurance is security of software operating on mobile devices. The aim of this work was to analyze security threats to PeerHood, software intended for performing personal communications between mobile devices regardless of underlying network technologies. To reach this goal, risk-based software security testing was performed. The results of the testing showed that the project has several security vulnerabilities. So PeerHood cannot be considered as a secure software. The analysis made in the work is the first step towards the further implementation of PeerHood security mechanisms, as well as taking into account security in the development process of this project.

Vocalization of broilers can be used to identify their sex and genetic strain

In order to reach higher broiler performance, farmers target losses reduction. One way to make this possible is by rearing sexed broilers as male and female present diverse performance due to their physiological differences. Birds from different genetic strain also have a distinct performance at the same age. Considering that sexed flocks may present higher performance this study aimed to identify one-day-old chicks’ sex throughout their vocalization. This research also investigated the possibility of identifying the genetic strain by their vocalization attributes. A total of 120 chicks, half of them were from Cobb® genetic strain and the other half from Ross® genetic strain. From each group, a total of 30 were males and 30 females, which were previously separated by sex using their secondary physiological characteristics at the hatchery. Vocalizations audio recording was done inside a semi-anechoic chamber using a unidirectional microphone connected to an audio input of a digital recorder. Vocalizations were recorded for two minutes. Acoustic characteristics of the sounds were analyzed being calculated the fundamental frequency Pitch, the sound intensity, the first formant, and second formant. Results indicated that the vocalizations of both sexes could be identified by the second formant, and the genetic strain was detected by both the second formant and the Pitch.

Thermal Stress in a Roll-to-Roll Printed Electronics Substrate

The Roll-to-Roll process makes it possible to print electronic products continuously onto a uniform substrate. Printing components on flexible surfaces can bring down the costs of simple electronic devices such as RFID tags, antennas and transistors. The possibility of quickly printing flexible electronic components opens up a wide array of novel products previously too expensive to produce on a large scale. Several different printing methods can be used in Roll-to-Roll printing, such as gravure, spray, offset, flexographic and others. Most of the methods can also be mixed in one production line. Most of them still require years of research to reach a significant commercial level. The research for this thesis was carried out at the Konkuk University Flexible Display Research Center (KU-FDRC) in Seoul, Korea. A system using Roll-to-Roll printing requires that the motion of the web can be controlled in every direction in order to align different layers of ink properly. Between printers the ink is dried with hot air. The effects of thermal expansion on the tension of the web are studied in this work, and a mathematical model was constructed on Matlab and Simulink. Simulations and experiments lead to the conclusion that the thermal expansion of the web has a great influence on the tension of the web. Also, experimental evidence was gained that the particular printing machine used for these experiments at KU-FDRC may have a problem in controlling the speeds of the cylinders which pull the web.

A surveillance of enteropathogens in piglets from birth to seven days of age in Brazil

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the real importance of anaerobic enteropathogens and rotavirus in contrast to more common agents as cause of diarrhea in piglets within the first week of life. Sixty 1- to 7-day-old piglets, 30 diarrheic and 30 non-diarrheic (control), from 15 different herds were selected, euthanized and necropsied. Samples of the jejunum, ileum, colon, cecum and feces were collected from the piglets and analyzed to determine the presence of the following enteropathogens: enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Clostridium perfringens types A and C, Clostridium difficile, rotavirus and Isospora suis. Among diarrheic piglets, 23.3% were positive for C. difficile, 70% for C. perfringens type A cpb2+, 14.3% for rotavirus and 10% for ETEC. Among non-diarrheic control piglets, 10% were positive for C. difficile, 76.7% for C. perfringens type A cpb2+, 0% for rotavirus, 3.3% for ETEC and 3.3% for I. suis. C. perfringens type C was not detected in any of the animals. Histological lesions characteristic of C. difficile, E. coli and rotavirus were observed. However, no C. perfringens type A suggestive lesions were detected. There was a positive correlation between mesocolon edema and the presence of C. difficile toxins. Although C. perfringens type A cpb2+ was the most frequently detected enteropathogen, there was no association between its presence and diarrhea or macro or microscopic changes. C. difficile and Rotavirus were the most relevant pathogens involved with neonatal diarrhea in this study, and histopathology associated with microbiological test proved to be the key to reach a final diagnosis.

Waste-to-Energy Scenarios in the China Context

Waste incineration plants are increasingly established in China. A low heating value and high moisture content, due to a large proportion of biowaste in the municipal solid waste (MSW), can be regarded as typical characteristics of Chinese MSW. Two incineration technologies have been mainly established in China: stoker grate and circular fluidized bed (CFB). Both of them are designed to incinerate mixed MSW. However, there have been difficulties to reach the sufficient temperature in the combustion process due to the low heating value of the MSW. That is contributed to the usage of an auxiliary fossil fuel, which is often used during the whole incineration process. The objective of this study was to design alternative Waste-to-energy (WTE) scenarios for existing WTE plants with the aim to improve the material and energy efficiency as well as the feasibility of the plants. Moreover, the aim of this thesis was to find the key factors that affect to the feasibility of the scenarios. Five different WTE plants were selected as study targets. The necessary data for calculation was gained from literature as well as received from the operators of the target WTE plants. The created scenarios were based on mechanical-biological treatment (MBT) technologies, in which the produced solid recovered fuel (SRF) was fed as an auxiliary fuel into a WTE plant replacing the fossil fuel. The mechanically separated biowaste was treated either in an anaerobic digestion (AD) plant, a biodrying plant, a thermal drying plant, or a combined AD plant + thermal drying plant. An interactive excel spreadsheet based computation tool was designed to estimate the viability of the scenarios in different WTE cases. The key figures of the improved material and energy efficiency, such as additional electricity generated and avoided waste for landfill, were got as results. Furthermore, economic indicators such as annual profits (or costs), payback period, and internal rate of return (IRR) were gained as results. The results show that the AD scenario was the most profitable in most of the cases. The current heating value of MSW and the tipping fee for the received MSW appeared as the most important factor in terms of feasibility.

Effect of zone and crops rotation on Ischaemum rugosum and resistance to bispyribac-sodium in Ariari, Colombia

The objectives of this research were to evaluate (1) weed species presented in rice fields in relation to the geographical zone and crop rotation and (2) the resistance level of Ischaemum rugosum to the herbicide bispyribac-sodium. For the first objective, were sampled 79 commercial fields of rice to establish weed density, coverage, and rotation system in the evaluated fields with record of bispyribac-sodium application of at least five years. To reach the second objective, the seeds were collected from plants in commercial fields with different control levels of bispyribac-sodium herbicide. Seeds were germinated in trays under controlled conditions. When plants presented three leaves these were treated with bispyribac-sodium at different doses. Percentages of control and dry weight of plants were evaluated 12 days after treatments (dat). Dominant species in evaluated fields was I. rugosum, with a frequency of 100%, presenting escapes to different chemical commercial treatments. No significant differences were recorded between rotation systems, nevertheless, the most of I. rugosum population was found in the system rice-fallow-rice. The response of applications at different concentrations allows concluding that 65% of samples had resistance at different degrees reported as indexes from 2 to 42 which are related to rotation systems.

Palvelun hankinnan prosessi ja laatu. Case: Espoon kaupungin koulukuljetukset

Palvelujen hankinta on yhä kiinteämmin osa yritysten liiketoimintaa, kun kiristyvässä kilpailussa yritykset pyrkivät siirtämään keskittymistään enenevissä määrin ydintoimintojensa tuottamiseen. Yleisiä ohjeistuksia palveluiden laadun kehittämisestä ja hankintaprosessin läpiviennistä on olemassa runsaasti, mutta palveluihin keskittyvän hankinnan kokonaisvaltaista kuvausta on tutkimuskentästä vaikea löytää. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia palvelun hankinnan prosessia ja laatua, sekä paikata olemassa olevaa tutkimusaukkoa tunnistaen hankintaprosessista lopputuloksen laadun kannalta kriittisiä elementtejä. Tutkimusaihetta lähestytään tarkastelemalla ensin olemassa olevaa tutkimusta palvelujen hankintaprosessista ja laadusta. Lisäksi tutkimusta varten on haastateltu hankinta-asiantuntijoita, sekä suoritettu case-tutkimus Espoon kaupungin koulukuljetusten hankinnasta, jossa hyödynnetään QFD-matriisianalyysiä kriittisten tekijöiden tunnistamiseksi. Lopputuloksena tutkimus esittää hankintaprosessiin perustuvan listan niistä laadukkaan lopputuloksen kannalta kriittisistä tekijöistä, joihin keskittymällä palveluhankinnan laatua on mahdollista parantaa. Keskeisimpinä tekijöinä tuloksissa esiin nousevat hankintatiimin kokoaminen, yrityksen tahtotilan tunnistaminen, palvelusisällön ja sen tavoitteiden ymmärtäminen, sanktiomallien hyödyntäminen, sekä yhteistyön vaaliminen hankinnan suunnittelussa ja sopimusseurannassa.

Time course of the hemodynamic responses to aortic depressor nerve stimulation in conscious spontaneously hypertensive rats

The time to reach the maximum response of arterial pressure, heart rate and vascular resistance (hindquarter and mesenteric) was measured in conscious male spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) and normotensive control rats (NCR; Wistar; 18-22 weeks) subjected to electrical stimulation of the aortic depressor nerve (ADN) under thiopental anesthesia. The parameters of stimulation were 1 mA intensity and 2 ms pulse length applied for 5 s, using frequencies of 10, 30, and 90 Hz. The time to reach the hemodynamic responses at different frequencies of ADN stimulation was similar for SHR (N = 15) and NCR (N = 14); hypotension = NCR (4194 ± 336 to 3695 ± 463 ms) vs SHR (3475 ± 354 to 4494 ± 300 ms); bradycardia = NCR (1618 ± 152 to 1358 ± 185 ms) vs SHR (1911 ± 323 to 1852 ± 431 ms), and the fall in hindquarter vascular resistance = NCR (6054 ± 486 to 6550 ± 847 ms) vs SHR (4849 ± 918 to 4926 ± 646 ms); mesenteric = NCR (5574 ± 790 to 5752 ± 539 ms) vs SHR (5638 ± 648 to 6777 ± 624 ms). In addition, ADN stimulation produced baroreflex responses characterized by a faster cardiac effect followed by a vascular effect, which together contributed to the decrease in arterial pressure. Therefore, the results indicate that there is no alteration in the conduction of the electrical impulse after the site of baroreceptor mechanical transduction in the baroreflex pathway (central and/or efferent) in conscious SHR compared to NCR.

Electrophoretic analisys to detect and quantify additional whey in milk and dairy beverages

Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, SDS-PAGE system, was adjusted to detect the presence of additional whey in dairy beverages distributed in a Brazilian Government School Meals Program. Aqueous solutions of samples in 8 M urea were submitted to a polyacrylamide gel gradient (10% to 18%). Gel scans from electrophoresis patterns of previously adulterated milk samples showed that caseins peak areas decreased while peak areas of beta -lactoglobulin plus alpha -lactalbumin increased as the percentage of raw milk powder replaced by whey powder increased. The relative densitometer areas of caseins or beta -lactoglobulin plus alpha -lactalbumin plotted against the percentage of whey added to the raw milk showed a linear correlation coefficient square higher than 0.97. The caseins plot was used to determine the percentage of additional whey in 116 dairy beverages, chocolate or coffee flavor. Considering that the lowest relative caseins concentration found in commercial milk powder samples by the present method was 72%, the dairy beverages containing caseins percentages equal to or higher than this value were considered free of additional whey. Based on this criterion, about 49% of the coffee-flavor dairy beverages and 29% of the chocolate-flavor beverages, among all the samples analyzed were adulterated with whey protein to reach the total protein contents specified on their labels. The present method showed a sensitivity of 5% to additional whey.

Explaining the intention to play and behavior of playing sports betting games of young Finnish adults : an application of the theory of planned behavior

The aim of this Master’s Thesis was to examine the determinants of intention and behavior of playing sports betting games in order to explain the intention to play in a more precise way and to be able to understand the behavior of playing. The theory of planned behavior was applied in explaining the intention of young Finnish adults aged 18 to 34. A quantitative research method was applied and an online survey was sent to the students of Lappeenranta University of Technology and to the subscribers of Urheilulehti in order to reach a sample that present the young population of Finland. The theory of the study focused on the theory of planned behavior and its antecedents, attitude towards behavior, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control as well as motivation. By analyzing the data, causal relationships were found through which the explanation of intention was possible. The results showed that attitude towards playing, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and motivation impact the formation of intention significantly. The results also indicated that intention impacts significantly to the playing frequency.

Utilization of multi-branding in business to business markets

Case company utilizes multi-branding strategy (or house of brands strategy) in its product portfolio. In practice the company has multiple brands – one main brand and four acquired brands – which all utilize one single product platform. The objective of this research is to analyze case company’s multi-branding strategy and its benefits and challenges. Moreover, the purpose is to clarify that how could a company in B2B markets utilize multi-branding strategy more efficiently and profitably. The theoretical part of this thesis consists of aspects of branding strategies; different brand name architectures, benefits and challenges of different strategies and different ways of utilize branding strategies in mergers and acquisitions. The empirical part, on the other hand, includes the description of the case company’s branding strategy and the employees’ perspective on the benefits and challenges of multi-branding strategy, and how to utilize it more efficiently and profitably. This study shows, that the major benefits of utilizing multi-branding are lower production costs, ability to reach wider market coverage, possibility to utilize common sales tools, synergies in R&D and shared resources. On the other hand, the major challenges are lack of product differentiation, internal competition, branding issues in production and deliveries, pricing issues and conflicts, and compromises in product compatibility and suitability. Based on the results, several ways to utilize multi-branding strategy more efficiently and profitably were found; by putting more effort on brand image and product differentiation, by having more co-operation among the brands and by focusing on more precise customer and market segmentation.