Modelagem Fuzzy para previsão de uma série temporal de energia elétrica.

Esta dissertação testa e compara dois tipos de modelagem para previsão de uma mesma série temporal. Foi observada uma série temporal de distribuição de energia elétrica e, como estudo de caso, optou-se pela região metropolitana do Estado da Bahia. Foram testadas as combinações de três variáveis exógenas em cada modelo: a quantidade de clientes ligados na rede de distribuição de energia elétrica, a temperatura ambiente e a precipitação de chuvas. O modelo linear de previsão de séries temporais utilizado foi um SARIMAX. A modelagem de inteligência computacional utilizada para a previsão da série temporal foi um sistema de Inferência Fuzzy. Na busca de um melhor desempenho, foram feitos testes de quais variáveis exógenas melhor influenciam no comportamento da energia distribuída em cada modelo. Segundo a avaliação dos testes, o sistema Fuzzy de previsão foi o que obteve o menor erro. Porém dentre os menores erros, os resultados dos testes também indicaram diferentes variáveis exógenas para cada modelo de previsão.

Research of Face Detection System Applied for Detecting Faces with Complex Background and Illumination

An effective face detection system used for detecting multi pose frontal face in gray images is presented. Image preprocessing approaches are applied to reduce the influence of the complex illumination. Eye-analog pairing and improved multiple related template matching are used to glancing and accurate face detecting, respectively. To shorten the time cost of detecting process, we employ prejudge rules in checking candidate image segments before template matching. Test by our own face database with complicated illumination and background, the system has high calculation speed and illumination independency, and obtains good experimental results.

feedback fuzzy-dvs scheduling of control tasks

To consider the energy-aware scheduling problem in computer-controlled systems is necessary to improve the control performance, to use the limited computing resource sufficiently, and to reduce the energy consumption to extend the lifetime of the whole system. In this paper, the scheduling problem of multiple control tasks is discussed based on an adjustable voltage processor. A feedback fuzzy-DVS (dynamic voltage scaling) scheduling architecture is presented by applying technologies of the feedback control and the fuzzy DVS. The simulation results show that, by using the actual utilization as the feedback information to adjust the supply voltage of processor dynamically, the high CPU utilization can be implemented under the precondition of guaranteeing the control performance, whilst the low energy consumption can be achieved as well. The proposed method can be applied to the design in computer-controlled systems based on an adjustable voltage processor.

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

具有不完全微分的Fuzzy-GA PID控制器及其在智能仿生人工腿中的应用

以模糊推理和遗传算法为基础，提出了一种新的具有不完全微分的最优PID控制器的设计方法，该控制器由离线和在线两部分组成，在离线部分，以系统响应的超调量、上升时间以及调整时间为性能指标，利用遗传算法搜索出一组最优的PID参数Kp^*、Ti^*和Td^*，作为在线部分调整的初始值，在在线部分，一个专用的PID参数优化程序以离线部分获得Kp^*、Ti^*和Td^*为基础，根据系统当前的误差e和误差变化率e^.，通过一个模糊推理系统在线调整系统瞬态响应的PID参数，以确保系统的响应具有最优的动态和稳态性能．该控制器已被用来控制由作者设计的智能仿生人工腿中的执行电机．计算机仿真结果表明，该控制器具有良好的控制性能和鲁棒性能。

Survey of Rough and Fuzzy Hybridization.

P. Lingras and R. Jensen, 'Survey of Rough and Fuzzy Hybridization,' Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE'07), pp. 125-130, 2007.

Fuzzy rules from ant-inspired computation

M. Galea and Q. Shen. Fuzzy rules from ant-inspired computation. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, pages 1691-1696, 2004.

Fuzzy ARTMAP, Slow Learning and Probability Estimation

A nonparametric probability estimation procedure using the fuzzy ARTMAP neural network is here described. Because the procedure does not make a priori assumptions about underlying probability distributions, it yields accurate estimates on a wide variety of prediction tasks. Fuzzy ARTMAP is used to perform probability estimation in two different modes. In a 'slow-learning' mode, input-output associations change slowly, with the strength of each association computing a conditional probability estimate. In 'max-nodes' mode, a fixed number of categories are coded during an initial fast learning interval, and weights are then tuned by slow learning. Simulations illustrate system performance on tasks in which various numbers of clusters in the set of input vectors mapped to a given class.

Rule Extraction, Fuzzy ARTMAP, and Medical Databases

This paper shows how knowledge, in the form of fuzzy rules, can be derived from a self-organizing supervised learning neural network called fuzzy ARTMAP. Rule extraction proceeds in two stages: pruning removes those recognition nodes whose confidence index falls below a selected threshold; and quantization of continuous learned weights allows the final system state to be translated into a usable set of rules. Simulations on a medical prediction problem, the Pima Indian Diabetes (PID) database, illustrate the method. In the simulations, pruned networks about 1/3 the size of the original actually show improved performance. Quantization yields comprehensible rules with only slight degradation in test set prediction performance.

Fusion ARTMAP: An Adaptive Fuzzy Network for Multi-Channel Classification

Fusion ARTMAP is a self-organizing neural network architecture for multi-channel, or multi-sensor, data fusion. Fusion ARTMAP generalizes the fuzzy ARTMAP architecture in order to adaptively classify multi-channel data. The network has a symmetric organization such that each channel can be dynamically configured to serve as either a data input or a teaching input to the system. An ART module forms a compressed recognition code within each channel. These codes, in turn, beco1ne inputs to a single ART system that organizes the global recognition code. When a predictive error occurs, a process called parallel match tracking simultaneously raises vigilances in multiple ART modules until reset is triggered in one of thmn. Parallel match tracking hereby resets only that portion of the recognition code with the poorest match, or minimum predictive confidence. This internally controlled selective reset process is a type of credit assignment that creates a parsimoniously connected learned network.

Fuzzy ART

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) models are real-time neural networks for category learning, pattern recognition, and prediction. Unsupervised fuzzy ART and supervised fuzzy ARTMAP synthesize fuzzy logic and ART networks by exploiting the formal similarity between the computations of fuzzy subsethood and the dynamics of ART category choice, search, and learning. Fuzzy ART self-organizes stable recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input patterns. It generalizes the binary ART 1 model, replacing the set-theoretic: intersection (∩) with the fuzzy intersection (∧), or component-wise minimum. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric: theory in which the fuzzy inter:>ec:tion and the fuzzy union (∨), or component-wise maximum, play complementary roles. Complement coding preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the input vector, and prevents a potential category proliferation problem. Adaptive weights :otart equal to one and can only decrease in time. A geometric interpretation of fuzzy AHT represents each category as a box that increases in size as weights decrease. A matching criterion controls search, determining how close an input and a learned representation must be for a category to accept the input as a new exemplar. A vigilance parameter (p) sets the matching criterion and determines how finely or coarsely an ART system will partition inputs. High vigilance creates fine categories, represented by small boxes. Learning stops when boxes cover the input space. With fast learning, fixed vigilance, and an arbitrary input set, learning stabilizes after just one presentation of each input. A fast-commit slow-recode option allows rapid learning of rare events yet buffers memories against recoding by noisy inputs. Fuzzy ARTMAP unites two fuzzy ART networks to solve supervised learning and prediction problems. A Minimax Learning Rule controls ARTMAP category structure, conjointly minimizing predictive error and maximizing code compression. Low vigilance maximizes compression but may therefore cause very different inputs to make the same prediction. When this coarse grouping strategy causes a predictive error, an internal match tracking control process increases vigilance just enough to correct the error. ARTMAP automatically constructs a minimal number of recognition categories, or "hidden units," to meet accuracy criteria. An ARTMAP voting strategy improves prediction by training the system several times using different orderings of the input set. Voting assigns confidence estimates to competing predictions given small, noisy, or incomplete training sets. ARPA benchmark simulations illustrate fuzzy ARTMAP dynamics. The chapter also compares fuzzy ARTMAP to Salzberg's Nested Generalized Exemplar (NGE) and to Simpson's Fuzzy Min-Max Classifier (FMMC); and concludes with a summary of ART and ARTMAP applications.

Fuzzy ART: An Adaptive Resonance Algorithm for Rapid, Stable Classification of Analog Patterns

The Fuzzy ART system introduced herein incorporates computations from fuzzy set theory into ART 1. For example, the intersection (n) operator used in ART 1 learning is replaced by the MIN operator (A) of fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy ART reduces to ART 1 in response to binary input vectors, but can also learn stable categories in response to analog input vectors. In particular, the MIN operator reduces to the intersection operator in the binary case. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. A preprocessing step, called complement coding, uses on-cell and off-cell responses to prevent category proliferation. Complement coding normalizes input vectors while preserving the amplitudes of individual feature activations.

Fuzzy ARTMAP: A Neural Network Architecture for Incremental Supervised Learning of Analog Multidimensional Maps

A new neural network architecture is introduced for incremental supervised learning of recognition categories and multidimensional maps in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input vectors. The architecture, called Fuzzy ARTMAP, achieves a synthesis of fuzzy logic and Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) neural networks by exploiting a close formal similarity between the computations of fuzzy subsethood and ART category choice, resonance, and learning. Fuzzy ARTMAP also realizes a new Minimax Learning Rule that conjointly minimizes predictive error and maximizes code compression, or generalization. This is achieved by a match tracking process that increases the ART vigilance parameter by the minimum amount needed to correct a predictive error. As a result, the system automatically learns a minimal number of recognition categories, or "hidden units", to met accuracy criteria. Category proliferation is prevented by normalizing input vectors at a preprocessing stage. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric theory in which the MIN operator (Λ) and the MAX operator (v) of fuzzy logic play complementary roles. Complement coding uses on-cells and off-cells to represent the input pattern, and preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the total on-cell/off-cell vector. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. Decreasing weights correspond to increasing sizes of category "boxes". Smaller vigilance values lead to larger category boxes. Improved prediction is achieved by training the system several times using different orderings of the input set. This voting strategy can also be used to assign probability estimates to competing predictions given small, noisy, or incomplete training sets. Four classes of simulations illustrate Fuzzy ARTMAP performance as compared to benchmark back propagation and genetic algorithm systems. These simulations include (i) finding points inside vs. outside a circle; (ii) learning to tell two spirals apart; (iii) incremental approximation of a piecewise continuous function; and (iv) a letter recognition database. The Fuzzy ARTMAP system is also compared to Salzberg's NGE system and to Simpson's FMMC system.

Comparative Performance Measures of Fuzzy ARTMAP, Learned Vector Quantization, and Back Propagation for Handwritten Character Recognition

This article compares the performance of Fuzzy ARTMAP with that of Learned Vector Quantization and Back Propagation on a handwritten character recognition task. Training with Fuzzy ARTMAP to a fixed criterion used many fewer epochs. Voting with Fuzzy ARTMAP yielded the highest recognition rates.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.