Monte Carlo studies of quantum and classical annealing on a double well

We present results for a variety of Monte Carlo annealing approaches, both classical and quantum, benchmarked against one another for the textbook optimization exercise of a simple one-dimensional double well. In classical (thermal) annealing, the dependence upon the move chosen in a Metropolis scheme is studied and correlated with the spectrum of the associated Markov transition matrix. In quantum annealing, the path integral Monte Carlo approach is found to yield nontrivial sampling difficulties associated with the tunneling between the two wells. The choice of fictitious quantum kinetic energy is also addressed. We find that a "relativistic" kinetic energy form, leading to a higher probability of long real-space jumps, can be considerably more effective than the standard nonrelativistic one.

Coexistence of GMOs in the EU – A Veritable Choice?

This chapter examines the issue of coexistence of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) alongside conventional and organic crops. The central focus is on whether there is a veritable opportunity for coexistence of all three types of crops, which allows for freedom of choice by both farmers and consumers. It commences by considering the nature of the general GM regime, the relationship between the frameworks for cultivation and the use and sale of GM food and feed, and the main elements of the cultivation regime. In light of this, the concept of coexistence is considered, with an evaluation of both the legal and practical elements. Although the general GM regime is controlled at an EU level, coexistence is apparently left to the Member States who may take appropriate coexistence measures. Nonetheless, the Commission has created Recommendations that are to guide the Member States in their choice of measures. To a great extent, what is considered ‘appropriate’ is to be determined by the economic impact upon the farmers and the relationship with the labelling thresholds. The chapter evaluates the future of coexistence, bearing in mind the continued use of the safeguard clauses, the declaration of ‘GM-free’ regions, the potential for national ‘opt-outs’ and the general practical challenges of maintaining coexistence including the ‘domino effect’. Overall, it is arguable that coexistence is a misnomer and that if the term’s meaning is strictly maintained then veritable coexistence that allows for freedom of choice by both farmers and consumers seems unattainable. Although not directly controlled by CAP, there are strong areas of overlap and they share a number of similar objectives; the chapter will conclude by considering whether the approaches in relation to CAP and the cultivation of GMOs are converging or diverging.

The Determinants of Brownfields Redevelopment in England

This paper uses discrete choice models, supported by GIS data, to analyse the National Land Use Database, a register of more than 21,000 English brownfields - previously used sites with or without contamination that are currently unused or underused. Using spatial discrete choice models, including the first application of a spatial probit latent class model with class-specific neighbourhood effects, we find evidence of large local differences in the determinants of brownfields redevelopment in England and that the reuse decisions of adjacent sites affect the reuse of a site. We also find that sites with a history of industrial activities, large sites, and sites that are located in the poorest and bleakest areas of cities and regions of England are more difficult to redevelop. In particular, we find that the probability of reusing a brownfield increases by up to 8.5% for a site privately owned compared to a site publicly owned and between 15% - 30% if a site is located in London compared to the North West of England. We suggest that local tailored policies are more suitable than regional or national policies to boost the reuse of brownfield sites.

Methodological aspects of a mathematical programming model to evaluate soil tillage technologies in a risky environment

In this work we develop a methodology for the economic evaluation of soil tillage technologies, in a risky environment, and to capture the influence of farmer behaviour on his technology choice. The model has short-term activities, that change with the type of year, and long-term activities, in which sets of traction investment activities are included. Although these activities do not change with the type of year, they lead to different availability of resources for each type of year, since the same tractor has different available fieldwork days under different weather conditions. We prove that the model is sensitive to the greater income variability resulting from the use of alternative technologies and to the balance between income and risk, accounting for the probability of occurrence of each state of nature and giving an investment solution that considers the best production plan for each type of year. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increase of the delivered energy probability in DES using a fuzzy probabilistic modeling

The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

Increase of the Delivered Power Probability in Distribution Networks using Pareto DC Programming

A methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point through the identification of new investments in distribution network components is proposed in this paper. The method minimizes the investment cost as well as the cost of energy not supplied in the network. A DC optimization model based on mixed integer non-linear programming is developed considering the Pareto front technique in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution networks components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power for any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator, while minimizing the energy not supplied cost. Thus, a multi-objective problem is formulated. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study which considers a 180 bus distribution network

Novel Prostate Specific Antigen plastic antibody designed withcharged binding sites for an improved protein binding and itsapplication in a biosensor of potentiometric transduction

This work shows that the synthesis of protein plastic antibodies tailored with selected charged monomersaround the binding site enhances protein binding. These charged receptor sites are placed over a neutralpolymeric matrix, thus inducing a suitable orientation the protein reception to its site. This is confirmed bypreparing control materials with neutral monomers and also with non-imprinted template. This concepthas been applied here to Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA), the protein of choice for screening prostate can-cer throughout the population, with serum levels >10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associatedcancer.Protein Imprinted Materials with charged binding sites (C/PIM) have been produced by surfaceimprinting over graphene layers to which the protein was first covalently attached. Vinylben-zyl(trimethylammonium chloride) and vinyl benzoate were introduced as charged monomers labellingthe binding site and were allowed to self-organize around the protein. The subsequent polymerizationwas made by radical polymerization of vinylbenzene. Neutral PIM (N/PIM) prepared without orientedcharges and non imprinted materials (NIM) obtained without template were used as controls.These materials were used to develop simple and inexpensive potentiometric sensor for PSA. Theywere included as ionophores in plasticized PVC membranes, and tested over electrodes of solid or liq-uid conductive contacts, made of conductive carbon over a syringe or of inner reference solution overmicropipette tips. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response,with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8 × 10−11mol/L (2 ng/mL). The cor-responding non-imprinted sensors showed lower sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade.The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum, with recoveries ranging from 96.9to 106.1% and relative errors of 6.8%.

Oriented Tailoring of Plastic Antibodies for Prostate Specific Antigen and Application of the Imprinted Material as Ionophore in Potentiometric Detection

Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) is the biomarker of choice for screening prostate cancer throughout the population, with PSA values above 10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associated cancer1. According to the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) data, prostate cancer is the commonest form of cancer in men in Europe2. Early detection of prostate cancer is thus very important and is currently made by screening PSA in men over 45 years old, combined with other alterations in serum and urine parameters. PSA is a glycoprotein with a molecular mass of approximately 32 kDa consisting of one polypeptide chain, which is produced by the secretory epithelium of human prostate. Currently, the standard methods available for PSA screening are immunoassays like Enzyme-Linked Immunoabsorbent Assay (ELISA). These methods are highly sensitive and specific for the detection of PSA, but they require expensive laboratory facilities and high qualify personal resources. Other highly sensitive and specific methods for the detection of PSA have also become available and are in its majority immunobiosensors1,3-5, relying on antibodies. Less expensive methods producing quicker responses are thus needed, which may be achieved by synthesizing artificial antibodies by means of molecular imprinting techniques. These should also be coupled to simple and low cost devices, such as those of the potentiometric kind, one approach that has been proven successful6. Potentiometric sensors offer the advantage of selectivity and portability for use in point-of-care and have been widely recognized as potential analytical tools in this field. The inherent method is simple, precise, accurate and inexpensive regarding reagent consumption and equipment involved. Thus, this work proposes a new plastic antibody for PSA, designed over the surface of graphene layers extracted from graphite. Charged monomers were used to enable an oriented tailoring of the PSA rebinding sites. Uncharged monomers were used as control. These materials were used as ionophores in conventional solid-contact graphite electrodes. The obtained results showed that the imprinted materials displayed a selective response to PSA. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response, with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8X10-11 mol/L (2 ng/mL). The corresponding non-imprinted sensors showed smaller sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade. The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum samples, with percentage recoveries of 106.5% and relatives errors of 6.5%.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Effect of age on female choice in the field cricket, Gryllus interger

Female choice is an important element of sexual selection that may vary among females of the same species. Few researchers have investigated the causes of variation in selectivity with respect to potential mates and overall level of motivation toward a stimulus source representative of a mate. This study demonstrates that female age may be one cause of variation in female choice. Females of different ages may have different mate preferences. As females age, they have less time left to reproduce, and their residual reproductive value decreases. This should correspond to a higher reproductive effort which may be represented as increased motivation and/or decreased selectivity. The effect of age on mate choice in Gryllus integer was investigated by using a non-compensating treadmill, called the Kugel, to measure female phonotaxis. Artificially generated male calling songs of varying pulse rates were broadcast in either a singlestimulus or a three-stimulus experimental design. The pulse rates used in the calling song stimuli were 70, 64, 76, 55 and 85 pulses per second. These corresponded to the documented mean pulse rate for the species at the experimental temperature, one standard deviation below and above the mean, and 2.5 standard deviations below and above the mean, respectively. Test females were either 11-14 days or 25-28 days post-ecdysis. Trials usually were conducted two to seven hours into the scotophase. In the single-stimulus experiment, females were presented with stimuli with only one pulse rate. Older females achieved higher vector scores than younger females, indicating that older females are more motivated to mate. Both groups showed little phonotactic response towards 55 or 85 pIs, both of which lie outside the natural range of G. integer calling song at the experimental temperature. Neither group discriminated among the three pulse rates that fell within the natural range of calling song. In the three-stimulus experiment, females were presented with stimuli with one of three pulse rates, 64, 70 or 76 pIs, In alternation. Both age groups had reduced responsiveness in this experiment, perhaps due to an increase in perceived male density. Additionally, younger females responded significantly more to 64 and 70 pIs than to the higher pulse rate, indicating that they are selective with respect to mate choice. Older females did not discriminate among the three pulse rates. Therefore, it was concluded that selectivity decreases with age. A further study was conducted to determine that these effects were due to age and not due to the differing periods without a mating between the two age groups. Again, stimuli were presented in a three-stimulus experimental design. Age was held constant at 28 days and time since last mating varied from 11 to 25 days. Females varyIng in time since last mating did not differ in their responses to the calling song pulse rates. This indicated that the increased motivation and decreased selectivity exhibited In the initial experiments were due to age and not to time without a mating. Neither time of trial nor female weight had an effect upon female phonotaxis. Data are discussed in terms of mate choice, residual reproductive value, and costs of choice.

A simple model of two-stage choice

I provide choice-theoretic foundations for a simple two-stage model, called transitive shortlist methods, where choices are made by sequentially by applying a pair of transitive preferences (or rationales) to eliminate inferior alternatives. Despite its simplicity, the model accommodates a wide range of choice phenomena including the status quo bias, framing, homophily, compromise, and limited willpower. I establish that the model can be succinctly characterized in terms of some well-documented context effects in choice. I also show that the underlying rationales are straightforward to determine from readily observable reversals in choice. Finally, I highlight the usefulness of these results in a variety of applications.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for Xchromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.

Extending Zelterman’s approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered data

Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.