389 resultados para Preventable hospitalisations


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BACKGROUND: The burden of asthma on patients and healthcare systems is substantial. Interventions have been developed to overcome difficulties in asthma management. These include chronic disease management programmes, which are more than simple patient education, encompassing a set of coherent interventions that centre on the patients' needs, encouraging the co-ordination and integration of health services provided by a variety of healthcare professionals, and emphasising patient self-management as well as patient education. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of chronic disease management programmes for adults with asthma. SEARCH METHODS: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group Specialised Register, MEDLINE (MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations), EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched up to June 2014. We also handsearched selected journals from 2000 to 2012 and scanned reference lists of relevant reviews. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included individual or cluster-randomised controlled trials, non-randomised controlled trials, and controlled before-after studies comparing chronic disease management programmes with usual care in adults over 16 years of age with a diagnosis of asthma. The chronic disease management programmes had to satisfy at least the following five criteria: an organisational component targeting patients; an organisational component targeting healthcare professionals or the healthcare system, or both; patient education or self-management support, or both; active involvement of two or more healthcare professionals in patient care; a minimum duration of three months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: After an initial screen of the titles, two review authors working independently assessed the studies for eligibility and study quality; they also extracted the data. We contacted authors to obtain missing information and additional data, where necessary. We pooled results using the random-effects model and reported the pooled mean or standardised mean differences (SMDs). MAIN RESULTS: A total of 20 studies including 81,746 patients (median 129.5) were included in this review, with a follow-up ranging from 3 to more than 12 months. Patients' mean age was 42.5 years, 60% were female, and their asthma was mostly rated as moderate to severe. Overall the studies were of moderate to low methodological quality, because of limitations in their design and the wide confidence intervals for certain results.Compared with usual care, chronic disease management programmes resulted in improvements in asthma-specific quality of life (SMD 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08 to 0.37), asthma severity scores (SMD 0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.30), and lung function tests (SMD 0.19, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.30). The data for improvement in self-efficacy scores were inconclusive (SMD 0.51, 95% CI -0.08 to 1.11). Results on hospitalisations and emergency department or unscheduled visits could not be combined in a meta-analysis because the data were too heterogeneous; results from the individual studies were inconclusive overall. Only a few studies reported results on asthma exacerbations, days off work or school, use of an action plan, and patient satisfaction. Meta-analyses could not be performed for these outcomes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate to low quality evidence that chronic disease management programmes for adults with asthma can improve asthma-specific quality of life, asthma severity, and lung function tests. Overall, these results provide encouraging evidence of the potential effectiveness of these programmes in adults with asthma when compared with usual care. However, the optimal composition of asthma chronic disease management programmes and their added value, compared with education or self-management alone that is usually offered to patients with asthma, need further investigation.

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Les DRG, Diagnosis Related Groups, sont une classification permettant de regrouper les hospitalisations de soins aigus en fonction des affections traitées et des coûts engendrés. Ils ont été développes dans les années 70 à l'université de Yale aux Etats-Unis par le professeur Robert Fetter dans le but de standardiser les clientèles hospitalières dans un objectif de contrôle qualité. En Suisse, le financement en APDRG a commencé comme un projet pilote à Lausanne en 2002. Ce dernier a été repris du système déjà introduit aux Etat-Unis. Le 18 janvier 2008, la Suisse a décidé de passer à un financement en DRG au niveau national. La société anonyme SwissDRG a ainsi vu le jour en se basant sur Les G-DRG (=DRG allemand). Le coeur de ce mémoire consiste à déterminer si l'introduction des DRG ne causera pas une perte de qualité dans le système de soins. Afin de répondre à cette question, nous nous sommes basés sur l'expérience des autres pays notamment celle des Etats-Unis. L'étude réalisée par Kahn va être souvent prise en exemple. Les points forts qui en ressortent sont une augmentation de la sévérité des admissions, une baisse de la durée moyenne de séjour, une mortalité inchangée, ainsi que l'augmentation de l'état de santé instable à la sortie de l'hôpital. Ce qui ressort également dans l'ensemble des études documentées dans ce travail, c'est l'augmentation de l'efficience des hôpitaux et le risque qu'il y ait une sélection inverse des patients. [Auteur, p. 10]

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Pertussis or whooping cough is a highly contagious vaccine-preventable disease of the human respiratory tract caused by the Bordetella pertussis bacteria. In Finland, pertussis vaccinations were started in 1952 leading to a dramatic decrease in the morbidity and mortality. In the late 1990s, the incidence of pertussis increased despite the high vaccination coverage. Strain variation has been connected to the re-emergence of pertussis in countries with long history of pertussis vaccination. In 2005, the pertussis vaccine and the vaccination schedule were changed in Finland. The molecular epidemiology and the strain variation of the B. pertussis isolates were examined in Finland and in countries with similar (France) and different (Sweden) vaccination history. Continuous evolution of the B. pertussis population in Finland was observed since the 1950s, and the recently circulating isolates were antigenically different from the vaccine strains. Comparison of the circulating isolates from Finland, France and Sweden did not refer to significant differences. Certain type of strains noticed in France already in 1994 mainly caused the recent epidemics in Sweden (1999) and in Finland (2003-4). On several occasions, a new type of strains first appeared in Sweden and some years later in Finland. The B. pertussis isolates from the infants were shown to be similar to those from the other age groups. It is suggested that the strains originate from the same reservoir among adolescents and adults. The strain variation does not seem to have a major effect on the morbidity among recently vaccinated individuals, but it might play a role among those who are in the waning phase of immunity. The incidence of pertussis in Finland has remained low since the change of the vaccination programme. This might be related to the epidemic nature of pertussis and the near future will show the real effectiveness of the new vaccination programme. At present, many infants are infected because they are too young to be immunised with the current schedule. New strategies or vaccines are needed to protect those who are the most vulnerable.

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Les úlceres per pressió són considerades com una de les cinc causes més comunes de dany al pacient. El 95% de les lesions, són evitables i els membres de l’equip d’infermeria són responsables de la seva prevenció. Varis estudis demostren un dèficit de coneixement dels professionals de l’equip d’infermeria envers prevenció d’UPP.En el següent projecte d’estudi, de disseny experimental longitudinal ambispectiu, es proposa avaluar l’eficàcia d’una intervenció educativa enfocada en la prevenció d’UPP i dirigida a l’equip d’infermeria per la disminució de la incidència d’UPPEl projecte consta de 6 fases. Una primera en la que es determinarà, mitjançant la revisió de les històries clíniques, la prevalença d’UPP. Posteriorment i amb l’aplicació d’un qüestionari, es valoraran els coneixements d’infermeria abans (fase 2) i després (fase 4) de la realització d’un programa educatiu (fase 3). Durant la fase 5 i amb l’ajuda d’una graella d’observació, es determinarà la incidència d’UPP durant un any des de l’aplicació del programa educatiu. A la fase 6 i passat més d’un any, es tornaran a avaluar els coneixements de l’equip d’infermeria

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The aim of this thesis was to study the health, the hospitalisations, and the use of communal health care services in very preterm children during the first five years of life. In addition, the effect of very preterm birth and prematurity-related morbidities on the costs of hospitalisations, other health care services and the cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) were studied. This population-based study included all very preterm children (gestational age (GA) <32 weeks or birth weight<1501g, N=2 064) and full-term controls (GA 37+0−41+6, N=200 609) born in Finland during 2000-2003. The data sources included national register data, costing data from the participating hospitals and parental questionnaires. This study showed that most very preterm infants born in Finland survived without prematurity-related morbidities diagnosed during the first years of life. They required relatively little hospital care after the initial discharge, which accounted for the vast majority of the total four-year hospitalisation costs. However, a minority of children born very preterm later developing morbidities had a long initial length of stay and more re-admissions and outpatient visits during the five-year follow-up period. In particular, the number and costs of non-emergency outpatient visits were considerable in individuals with prematurity-related morbidities. The need and costs of hospitalisations decreased clearly with each follow-up year, even in individuals with morbidities. The health-care related costs during the fifth year of life in children born very preterm without prematurity-related morbidities were close to the costs in infants born healthy at term. The cost per QALY of 19,245 € was at an acceptable level already by four years of age in the very preterm population as a whole. Prematurity-related later morbidities and decreasing GA increased the costs per QALY. As the initial hospital stay accounted for a great majority of the total four-year costs, and the costs of hospitalisation decreased with each follow-up year, the cost per QALY is likely to decrease with age. In conclusion, the majority of costs arising after the initial hospitalisation were associated with morbidities related to prematurity. Therefore offering high-quality neonatal care to prevent later morbidities in very preterm survivors has a long-term impact on the cost per QALY. In addition, this study indicates that when estimating the costs of prematurity after the first year of life, one should calculate not only the hospitalisation costs, but also other costs for social welfare services, primary care, and therapies, as these exceed the hospitalisation costs in very preterm infants during the fifth year of life.

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Alcohol consumption during pregnancy can potentially affect the developing fetus in devastating ways, leading to a range of physical, neurological, and behavioral alterations most accurately termed Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). Despite the fact that it is a preventable disorder, prenatal alcohol exposure today constitutes a leading cause of intellectual disability in the Western world. In Western countries where prevalence studies have been performed the rates of FASD exceed, for example, autism spectrum disorders, Down’s syndrome and cerebral palsy. In addition to the direct effects of alcohol, children and adolescents with FASD are often exposed to a double burden in life, as their neurological sequelae are accompanied by adverse living surroundings exposing them to further environmental risk. However, children with FASD today remain remarkably underdiagnosed by the health care system. This thesis forms part of a larger multinational research project, The Collaborative Initiative on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (the CIFASD), initiated by the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) in the U.S.A. The general aim of the present thesis was to examine a cohort of children and adolescents growing up with fetal alcohol-related damage in Finland. The thesis consists of five studies with a broad focus on diagnosis, cognition, behavior, adaptation and brain metabolic alterations in children and adolescents with FASD. The participants consisted of four different groups: one group with histories of prenatal exposure to alcohol, the FASD group; one IQ matched contrast group mostly consisting of children with specific learning disorder (SLD); and two typically-developing control groups (CON1 and CON2). Participants were identified through medical records, random sampling from the Finnish national population registry and email alerts to students. Importantly, the participants in the present studies comprise a group of very carefully clinically characterized children with FASD as the studies were performed in close collaboration with leading experts in the field (Prof. Edward Riley and Prof. Sarah Mattson, Center for Behavioral Teratology, San Diego State University, U.S.A; Prof. Eugene Hoyme, Sanford School of Medicine, University of South Dakota, U.S.A.). In the present thesis, the revised Institute of Medicine diagnostic criteria for FASD were tested on a Finnish population and found to be a reliable tool for differentiating among the subgroups of FASD. A weighted dysmorphology scoring system proved to be a valuable additional adjunct in quantification of growth deficits and dysmorphic features in children with FASD (Study 1). The purpose of Study 2 was to clarify the relationship between alcohol-related dysmorphic features and general cognitive capacity. Results showed a significant correlation between dysmorphic features and cognitive capacity, suggesting that children with more severe growth deficiency and dysmorphic features have more cognitive limitations. This association was, however, only moderate, indicating that physical markers and cognitive capacity not always go hand in hand in individuals with FASD. Behavioral problems in the FASD group proved substantial compared to the typically developing control group. In Study 3 risk and protective factors associated with behavioral problems in the FASD group were explored further focusing on diagnostic and environmental factors. Two groups with elevated risks for behavioral problems emerged: length of time spent in residential care and a low dysmorphology score proved to be the most pervasive risk factor for behavioral problems. The results underscore the clinical importance of appropriate services and care for less visibly alcohol affected children and highlight the need to attend to children with FASD being raised in institutions. With their background of early biological and psychological impairment compounded with less opportunity for a close and continuous caregiver relationship, such children seem to run an especially great risk of adverse life outcomes. Study 4 focused on adaptive abilities such as communication, daily living skills and social skills, in other words skills that are important for gradually enabling an independent life, maintain social relationships and allow the individual to become integrated into society. The results showed that adaptive abilities of children and adolescents growing up with FASD were significantly compromised compared to both typically-developing peers and IQ-matched children with SLD. Clearly different adaptive profiles were revealed where the FASD group performed worse than the SLD group, who in turn performed worse than the CON1 group. Importantly, the SLD group outperformed the FASD group on adaptive behavior in spite of comparable cognitive levels. This is the first study to compare adaptive abilities in a group of children and adolescents with FASD relative to both a contrast group of IQ-matched children with SLD and to a group of typically-developing peers. Finally, in Study 5, through magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRS) evidence of longstanding neurochemical alterations were observed in adolescents and young adults with FASD related to alcohol exposure in utero 14-20 years earlier. Neurochemical alterations were seen in several brain areas: in frontal and parietal cortices, corpus callosum, thalamus and frontal white matter areas as well as in the cerebellar dentate nucleus. The findings are compatible with neuropsychological findings in FASD. Glial cells seemed to be more affected than neurons. In conclusion, more societal efforts and resources should be focused on recognizing and diagnosing FASD, and supporting subgroups with elevated risk of poor outcome. Without adequate intervention children and adolescents with FASD run a great risk of marginalization and social maladjustment, costly not only to society but also to the lives of the many young people with FASD.

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Background: Although the knowledge of adverse effects of smoking during pregnancy has increased in recent years, more research is needed to gain a better understanding of the effects of smoking during pregnancy. Smoking exposure is the most common preventable factor that causes adverse pregnancy outcomes. Aims and Methods: First, data on smoking habits during pregnancy from the Nordic Medical Birth Registers was used to study the national differences in trends of smoking during pregnancy. Second, the effects of prenatal smoking exposure on fetal brain development, assessed by brain MRI at term age, were studied by using data from the multidisciplinary PIPARI Study consisting of a 6-year cohort of VLBW/VLGA infants (n = 232, of which 18.1% were exposed to prenatal smoking) born in Turku University Hospital, Finland. Third, the effects of prenatal smoking exposure on psychiatric morbidity and use of psychotropic medication were studied in a cohort of children born from 1987–1989 in Finland (n = 175,869, of which 15.3% were exposed). The data used were obtained from population-based longitudinal registers from the National Institute of Health and Welfare, the Statistics Finland, and the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Results: Smoking rates during pregnancy differed considerably between the countries. Smoking rates were highest among teenagers and women with lower socioeconomic positions. The smoking prevalence was found to be increasing among teenagers in both Finland and Norway. Prenatal smoking exposure was associated with smaller frontal lobe and cerebellar volumes in preterm infants. A clear association was found between prenatal smoking exposure and psychiatric morbidity treated with specialized hospital care and the use of various psychotropic medications. Conclusions: Prenatal smoking exposure had adverse effects on fetal brain development. These effects might explain part of the association found between smoking exposure and psychiatric problems in later life. Our study suggests that prenatal smoking exposure is linked with both mild and severe psychiatric problems. This study emphasizes the importance of efforts to reduce smoking during pregnancy.

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Cholecystokinin (CCK) influences gastrointestinal motility, by acting on central and peripheral receptors. The aim of the present study was to determine whether CCK has any effect on isolated duodenum longitudinal muscle activity and to characterize the mechanisms involved. Isolated segments of the rat proximal duodenum were mounted for the recording of isometric contractions of longitudinal muscle in the presence of atropine and guanethidine. CCK-8S (EC50: 39; 95% CI: 4.1-152 nM) and cerulein (EC50: 58; 95% CI: 18-281 nM) induced a concentration-dependent and tetrodotoxin-sensitive relaxation. Nomeganitro-L-arginine (L-NOARG) reduced CCK-8S- and cerulein-induced relaxation (IC50: 5.2; 95% CI: 2.5-18 µM) in a concentration-dependent manner. The magnitude of 300 nM CCK-8S-induced relaxation was reduced by 100 µM L-NOARG from 73 ± 5.1 to 19 ± 3.5% in an L-arginine but not D-arginine preventable manner. The CCK-1 receptor antagonists proglumide, lorglumide and devazepide, but not the CCK-2 receptor antagonist L-365,260, antagonized CCK-8S-induced relaxation in a concentration-dependent manner. These findings suggest that CCK-8S and cerulein activate intrinsic nitrergic nerves acting on CCK-1 receptors in order to cause relaxation of the rat duodenum longitudinal muscle.

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Serologic data on diseases that are preventable by vaccines are necessary to evaluate the success of immunization programs and to identify susceptible subgroups. In the present study, we determined serum IgG levels against diphtheria toxin of military and civilian blood donors (N = 75; 69.3% males and 30.7% females) aged 18-64 years, from the Brazilian Army Biology Institute, Rio de Janeiro, using a commercial diphtheria kit (Diphtheria IgG ELISA; IBL, Germany). Most (63%) unprotected military donors were from the older age group of 41 to 64 years. In contrast, the majority (71%) of young military donors (18 to 30 years) were fully protected. About half of the military donors aged 31 to 40 years were protected against diphtheria. Among the civilians, about 50% of persons aged 18 to 30 years and 31 to 40 years had protective antibody levels against diphtheria as also did 64% of individuals aged 41 to 64 years. All civilians had a similar antibody response (geometric mean = 0.55 IU/mL) independent of age group. Military donors aged 18-30 years had higher IgG levels (geometric mean = 0.82 IU/mL) than military donors of 41-64 years (geometric mean = 0.51 IU/mL; P > 0.05). In conclusion, the existence of a considerable proportion of susceptible adults supports the position that reliable data on the immune status of the population should be maintained routinely and emphasizes the importance of adequate immunization during adulthood.

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Introduction: Contrast induced nephropathy is the third most prevalent preventable cause of acute kidney injury in hospitalized patients. It defined as an absolute increase in serum creatinine ≥ 0.5 mg/dL and relative ≥ 25% increase. Objective: We studied the risk factors to intravenous injection contrast nephropathy after computed tomography. Methods: We studied 400 patients prospectively. Results: The incidence of contrast induced nephropathy, with an absolute or a relative increase were 4.0% and 13.9%, respectively. Diabetes and cardiac failure were independent risk factors for CIN a relative increase de serum creatinine (O.R.: 3.5 [95% CI: 1.92-6.36], p < 0.01, 2.61 [95% CI: 1.14-6.03%], p < 0.05, respectively). Conclusions: We showed association between uses of intravenous injection contrast after computed tomography with acute injury renal, notably with diabetes and heart failure.

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Pertussis or whooping cough is a human respiratory tract infection and a vaccine-preventable disease that is caused by Bordetella pertussis bacteria. Pertussis vaccination has been part of the Finnish national vaccine program since 1952. Despite extensive vaccinations, the incidence of pertussis has increased in many countries during the last decades. Large epidemics have been observed also in countries with high vaccine coverage. Inter-individual variation in immune responses is always encountered after vaccination. Low vaccine responses may cause vulnerability to pertussis even straight after vaccination. Reasons for low responses are not fully understood. The innate immune system is responsible for the initial recognition of pathogens and vaccine antigens. The role of innate immunity on pertussis immunity has not been thoroughly investigated. Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) are important molecules of the innate immune system and in the recognition of pathogens. Cytokines form a signaling network that have a notable role in immune responses after infections as well as after vaccinations. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is common in genes encoding these molecules and the polymorphisms have been reported to affect vaccine response after viral and bacterial vaccines. This study investigated the gene polymorphisms of MBL2, TLR4 and interleukin (IL)-10 promoter and their association with vaccine responses after acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination in Finnish adolescents and infants. Cell-mediated immune responses were investigated ten years after the previous pertussis vaccinations in young adults. In addition, the role of MBL deficiency in pertussis infection susceptibility was evaluated. The results of this study show that subjects with TLR4 polymorphism had lower antibody production and persistence after aP vaccination compared with normal allele. A specific SNP in the TLR4 gene was associated with decreased antibody responses and persistence in adolescents after aP booster vaccination. Cell-mediated immune responses were partly detected ten years after the previous vaccination; booster vaccine clearly enhanced the responses. In addition, subjects with IL-10 polymorphism had altered cell-mediated immune responses. MBL deficiency was found to be more frequent in pertussis patients than healthy controls but the polymorphism of MBL2 was not associated with antibody responses after acellular pertussis vaccination. The novel finding of this study was that genetic variation in the innate immune system seems to play a role in altered pertussis vaccine responses as well as in pertussis infection. These new findings enlighten the mechanisms behind the low responses after pertussis vaccination and help to predict risk factors related to this phenomenon.

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Illnesses related to the heart are one of the major reasons for death all over the world causing many people to lose their lives in last decades. The good news is that many of those sicknesses are preventable if they are spotted in early stages. On the other hand, the number of the doctors are much lower than the number of patients. This will makes the auto diagnosing of diseases even more and more essential for humans today. Furthermore, when it comes to the diagnosing methods and algorithms, the current state of the art is lacking a comprehensive study on the comparison between different diagnosis solutions. Not having a single valid diagnosing solution has increased the confusion among scholars and made it harder for them to take further steps. This master thesis will address the issue of reliable diagnosing algorithm. We investigate ECG signals and the relation between different diseases and the heart’s electrical activity. Also, we will discuss the necessary steps needed for auto diagnosing the heart diseases including the literatures discussing the topic. The main goal of this master thesis is to find a single reliable diagnosing algorithm and quest for the best classifier to date for heart related sicknesses. Five most suited and most well-known classifiers, such as KNN, CART, MLP, Adaboost and SVM, have been investigated. To have a fair comparison, the ex-periment condition is kept the same for all classification methods. The UCI repository arrhythmia dataset will be used and the data will not be preprocessed. The experiment results indicates that AdaBoost noticeably classifies different diseases with a considera-bly better accuracy.

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Réalisé en cotutelle avec l'Université de Paris-Sud

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L’exposition du fœtus à l’éthanol est reconnue comme étant la principale cause de maladies évitables lors du développement. Une forte exposition à l’alcool durant la gestation peut occasionner des dysmorphies cranio-faciales et des retards mentaux, ainsi que des troubles d’apprentissages et du comportement. Le développement du système visuel est également perturbé chez une grande majorité d’enfants qui ont été exposés à l’alcool. Lorsque les doses prises sont élevées, le système visuel peut présenter une panoplie de symptômes comme une augmentation de la tortuosité des vaisseaux rétiniens, de la myopie, de l’hypermétropie, du strabisme et une hypoplasie du nerf optique. Cependant, très peu d’études se sont penchées sur les effets de plus faibles doses sur le développement du système visuel du primate. Le singe est un excellent modèle pour étudier le système visuel car il possède plusieurs similitudes avec l’humain tant au niveau développemental qu’au niveau structurel. De plus, le singe utilisé, le Chlrocebus aethiops sabeus, possède l’avantage que des individus de cette espèce ont une consommation naturelle et volontaire à l’alcool. Une étude (Clarren et al., 1990) a suggéré qu’une faible exposition à l’alcool du fœtus du primate non humain occasionnait une diminution du nombre de cellules ganglionnaires de la rétine (CGRs). Étant donné que le corps genouillé latéral dorsal (CGLd) reçoit la plupart de ses intrants de la rétine, il est raisonnable d’assumer que les couches rétino-récipientes du CGLd devraient être aussi affectées. Nous avons alors émis l’hypothèse que le CGLd devrait également subir une diminution du nombre de neurones. Pour la première fois, nous avons utilisé une méthode stéréologique pour quantifier le nombre de cellules dans les couches parvo- (P) et magnocellulaires (M) du CGLd. Contrairement à notre hypothèse de départ, nous n’avons pas observé de diminution dans le nombre global de neurones dans le CGLd des animaux exposés à l’alcool par rapport à des sujets contrôles, ni une diminution de son volume. Nous avons toutefois observé une diminution de la taille du corps cellulaire seulement dans la population M du CGLd. Ces résultats suggèrent que le système visuel est affecté par une faible exposition à l’alcool durant son développement qui devrait se traduire sur le comportement par des déficits dans les fonctions de la voie M.

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Contexte : Les stratégies pharmacologiques pour traiter la schizophrénie reçoivent une attention croissante due au développement de nouvelles pharmacothérapies plus efficaces, mieux tolérées mais plus coûteuses. La schizophrénie est une maladie chronique présentant différents états spécifiques et définis par leur sévérité. Objectifs : Ce programme de recherche vise à: 1) Évaluer les facteurs associés au risque d'être dans un état spécifique de la schizophrénie, afin de construire les fonctions de risque de la modélisation du cours naturel de la schizophrénie; 2) Développer et valider un modèle de Markov avec microsimulations de Monte-Carlo, afin de simuler l'évolution naturelle des patients qui sont nouvellement diagnostiqués pour la schizophrénie, en fonction du profil individuel des facteurs de risque; 3) Estimer le coût direct de la schizophrénie (pour les soins de santé et autres non reliés aux soins de santé) dans la perspective gouvernementale et simuler l’impact clinique et économique du développement d’un traitement dans une cohorte de patients nouvellement diagnostiqués avec la schizophrénie, suivis pendant les cinq premières années post-diagnostic. Méthode : Pour le premier objectif de ce programme de recherche, un total de 14 320 patients nouvellement diagnostiqués avec la schizophrénie ont été identifiés dans les bases de données de la RAMQ et de Med-Echo. Les six états spécifiques de la schizophrénie ont été définis : le premier épisode (FE), l'état de dépendance faible (LDS), l’état de dépendance élevée (HDS), l’état stable (Stable), l’état de bien-être (Well) et l'état de décès (Death). Pour évaluer les facteurs associés au risque de se trouver dans chacun des états spécifiques de la schizophrénie, nous avons construit 4 fonctions de risque en se basant sur l'analyse de risque proportionnel de Cox pour des risques compétitifs. Pour le deuxième objectif, nous avons élaboré et validé un modèle de Markov avec microsimulations de Monte-Carlo intégrant les six états spécifiques de la schizophrénie. Dans le modèle, chaque sujet avait ses propres probabilités de transition entre les états spécifiques de la schizophrénie. Ces probabilités ont été estimées en utilisant la méthode de la fonction d'incidence cumulée. Pour le troisième objectif, nous avons utilisé le modèle de Markov développé précédemment. Ce modèle inclut les coûts directs de soins de santé, estimés en utilisant les bases de données de la Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec et Med-Echo, et les coûts directs autres que pour les soins de santé, estimés à partir des enquêtes et publications de Statistique Canada. Résultats : Un total de 14 320 personnes nouvellement diagnostiquées avec la schizophrénie ont été identifiées dans la cohorte à l'étude. Le suivi moyen des sujets était de 4,4 (± 2,6) ans. Parmi les facteurs associés à l’évolution de la schizophrénie, on peut énumérer l’âge, le sexe, le traitement pour la schizophrénie et les comorbidités. Après une période de cinq ans, nos résultats montrent que 41% des patients seront considérés guéris, 13% seront dans un état stable et 3,4% seront décédés. Au cours des 5 premières années après le diagnostic de schizophrénie, le coût direct moyen de soins de santé et autres que les soins de santé a été estimé à 36 701 $ canadiens (CAN) (95% CI: 36 264-37 138). Le coût des soins de santé a représenté 56,2% du coût direct, le coût de l'aide sociale 34,6% et le coût associé à l’institutionnalisation dans les établissements de soins de longue durée 9,2%. Si un nouveau traitement était disponible et offrait une augmentation de 20% de l'efficacité thérapeutique, le coût direct des soins de santé et autres que les soins de santé pourrait être réduit jusqu’à 14,2%. Conclusion : Nous avons identifié des facteurs associés à l’évolution de la schizophrénie. Le modèle de Markov que nous avons développé est le premier modèle canadien intégrant des probabilités de transition ajustées pour le profil individuel des facteurs de risque, en utilisant des données réelles. Le modèle montre une bonne validité interne et externe. Nos résultats indiquent qu’un nouveau traitement pourrait éventuellement réduire les hospitalisations et le coût associé aux établissements de soins de longue durée, augmenter les chances des patients de retourner sur le marché du travail et ainsi contribuer à la réduction du coût de l'aide sociale.