Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Commitment to military service among Finnish conscripts

This research establishes the primary components, predictors, and consequences of organizational commitment in the military context. Specifically, the research examines commitment to the military service among Finnish conscripts and whether initial affective commitment prior to service predicts later commitment, attitudes, behavior, and performance, and, furthermore, analyzes the changes in commitment and its possible outcomes. The data were collected from records as well as by surveys from 1,387 rank and file soldiers, immediately after they reported for duty, near the end of basic training, and near the end of 6 to 12 months of service. The data covered a wide array of predictor variables, including background items, attitudes toward conscription, mental and physical health, sociability, training quality, and leadership. Moreover, the archival data included such items as rank, criminal record, performance ratings, and the number of medical examines and exemptions. The measures were further refined based on the results of factor analysis and reliability tests. The results indicated that initial commitment significantly corresponded with expected adjustment, intentions to stay in the military, and acceptance of authority. Moreover, initial commitment moderately related to personal growth, perceived performance, and the number of effective service days at the end of service. During basic training, affective commitment was mostly influenced by challenging training, adjustment experiences, regimentation, and unit climate. At the end of service, committed soldiers demonstrated more personal growth and development in service, had higher-level expected performance, and less malingering during their service. Additionally, they had significantly more positive attitudes toward national defense. The results suggest that affective commitment requires adequate personal adjustment, experiences of personal growth and development, and satisfaction with unit dynamics and training. This research contributes to the theoretical discussion on organizational commitment and the will to defend the nation and advances developing models to support and manage conscript training, education, leadership, and personnel policy. This is achieved by determining the main factors and variables, including their relative strength, that affect commitment to the military service. These findings may also facilitate in designing programs aimed at reducing unwanted discharges and inadequate performance. In particular, these results provide tools for improving conscripts’ overall attachment to and identification with the military service.

The strategic use of military contractors : American commercial military service providers in Bosnia and Liberia, 1995-2009

Drawing from strategic theory, this study investigates the strategic roles of commercial companies providing military services, frequently referred to as private military companies. Theoretically, the thesis analyzes how states organize its military capabilities in order to be able to wield power within the international system while empirically, it examines the character and role of commercial companies that provide military training services to the United States Government and partner nations. The reason for this rather instrumental and functional, rather than critical, approach is that this work is written within the discipline known as War Studies. Strategic theory is used first to logically organize the empirical findings in two case studies and then to develop an analytical framework with which the strategic roles of companies providing military services can be investigated. The analysis has been conducted using both new and hitherto unknown sources in the shape of interviews as well as previously classified telegrams, but also draws on previous research and other secondary sources. The main findings are that commercial companies have five typical strategic roles: first, they cloak the state by substituting traditional uniformed troops; second, they act as trailblazers by securing US influence in new regions and by breaking new ground by contributing to the build-up of new partners; third, they act as scene setters by preparing the ground for military exit out of a theater of operations or by facilitating inter-operability between foreign militaries and the US military; fourth, they can be used to infiltrate the security structures of foreign countries; fifth and finally, they can be used to provide offensive capabilities by providing either kinetic or cyber warfare effects. Another finding is that military service contracting is an important part of the US strategic culture.

Strike hard, strike sure - Operation Musketeer : British military planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

Operation Musketeer, a combined joint Anglo-French operation aimed at regaining control of the Suez Canal in 1956, has received much attention from scholars. The most common approach to the crisis has been to examine the political dimension. The political events that led Prime Minister Anthony Eden’s cabinet to decide to use military force against the wishes of their superior American ally and in the face of American economic pressure and a Soviet threat to attack Paris and London with rockets have been analysed thoroughly. This is particularly the case because the ceasefire and eventual withdrawal were an indisputable defeat of British policy in the Middle East. The military operation not only ruined Prime Minister Eden’s career, but it also diminished the prestige of Britain. It was the beginning of the end, some claim. The British Empire would never be the same. As the consequences of using force are generally considered more important than the military operations themselves, very little attention has been paid to the military planning of Operation Musketeer. The difference between the number of publications on Operation Corporate of the Falklands War and Operation Musketeer is striking. Not only has there been little previous research on the military aspects of Musketeer, the conclusions drawn in the existing works have not reached a consensus. Some historians, such as Correlli Barnett, compare Musketeer to the utter failures of the Tudor landings and Gallipoli. Among significant politicians, Winston Churchill, who had retired from the prime ministership only a year before the Suez Crisis, described the operation as “the most ill-conceived and ill-executed imaginable”. Colin McInnes, a well-known author on British defence policy, represents the middle view when he describes the execution as “far from failure”. Finally, some, like Julian Thompson, the Commander of 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War, rate the military action itself as being successful. The interpretation of how successful the handling of the Suez Crisis was from the military point of view depends very much on the approach taken and the areas emphasised in the subject. Frequently, military operations are analysed in isolation from other events. The action of a country’s armed forces is separated from the wider context and evaluated without a solid point of comparison. Political consequences are often used as validated criteria, and complicated factors contributing to military performance are ignored. The lack of comprehensive research on the military action has left room for an analysis concentrating on the military side of the crisis.

Sotilaslentäjän fyysinen suorituskyky sekä työperäiset tuki- ja liikuntaelinoireet

Kirjallisuudesta välittyy useitten vuosikymmenten ajalta tietämys sotilaslentämisen fyysisestä kuormittavuudesta. G-voimista aiheutuva kuormittuminen näyttää johtavan joko akuutisti tai pitkäaikaisesti lentäjän tuki- ja liikuntaelimistön toimintakykyä alentaviin ongelmiin. Erityisesti on selvitetty niskan alueen työperäisten ongelmien syntyä, jolloin on havaittu lentotoiminnan fyysisen kuormittavuuden johtavan ennenaikaiseen rakenteelliseen rappeumaan, haittaa aiheuttavan oireen lisäksi. Kansainvälisen kirjallisuuden mukaan ammatista johtuvista eli työperäisistä oireista kärsii vähintään 2/3 kaikista sotilaslentäjistä. Tietyin edellytyksin lentäjien kaularangan alueen rappeuma on Suomessa hyväksytty ammattitaudiksi vuodesta 1995 alkaen. On arveltu, että hyvästä fyysisestä suorituskyvystä olisi apua tuki- ja liikuntaelin (TULE)-oireilun ennaltaehkäisemisessä ja toimintakyvyn ylläpitämisessä. Tutkimusnäyttö tästä on lentäjien osalta ollut toistaiseksi erittäin niukkaa. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää suomalaisten sotilaslentäjien työperäisen TULE-oireilun esiintyvyyttä, oireista koetun haitan tasoa, lentäjien fyysisen kunnon tasoja virkauran aikana ja näitten kaikkien välisiä yhteyksiä sekä työperäisen TULE-oireen merkitystä sotilaan toimintakykyyn. Tutkimus jakautui kahteen osaan. Poikkileikkauksena lentotoimintaperäisiä TULE-oireita kartoitettiin kyselytutkimuksella, johon vastasi vuositarkastuksen yhteydessä 267 lentäjää vuosina 2004-2005. Joukosta poimittiin ne 195 lentäjää, jotka olivat suorittaneet yleissotilaalliset kuntotestit puolen vuoden sisällä kyselyyn vastaamisesta, ja mitatut testitulokset yhdistettiin kyselytutkimusaineistoon. Tässä aineistossa toteutettiin fyysisesti erilailla kuormittuvien lentäjäryhmien välisiä vertailuja fyysisen kunnon, TULE-esiintyvyyden ja koetun haitan suhteen. Poikkileikkausosassa tutkittiin myös lentäjien virkauran aikaisia tasoeroja yleissotilaallisissa kuntotesteissä (n=195) verrattuna muihin suomalaisiin sotilaisiin. Lisäksi (N=289) selvitettiin ilmailulääketieteellisen tarkastuksen yhteydessä mitattuja, ns. ammatillisia fyysisiä erityisominaisuuksia eri ikäluokissa. Pitkittäisosassa seurattiin 67:n Hawk-suihkuharjoituskoneella aloittaneen Ilmavoimien sotilaslentäjien lentouran aikaista lentotoimintaperäisten TULE-oireitten esiintyvyyttä vuosien 1996 ja 2008 välillä. Lisäksi tutkittiin lentäjien kontakteja työterveyshuoltoon, oireen aiheuttamaa lentokelvottomuusaikaa, työn kuormituksen kumulatiivista kertymää lentotuntien lisääntyessä ja TULE-oireiden esiintyvyyden kannalta kriittisiä ajankohtia lentouran aikana. Tulokset osoittivat, että kaikki seurannassa olleet suomalaiset sotilaslentäjät kokivat jonkinasteisen lentotoimintaperäisen TULE-oireen uransa aikana. Niskan ammattitautiluokituksen tasoisen ongelman esiintyvyys oli 4 % koko lentäjäpopulaatiosta ja 10 % suihkuharjoituskonevaiheen jo läpäisseistä, mutta vastaavanlaisia TULE-ongelmia, ilman riittävää näyttöä ammattitaudista, esiintyi lähes joka kolmannella sotilaslentäjällä. Alaselän osalta lentäjät oireilivat lähes samassa määrin, mutta näitä oireita ei toistaiseksi ole mahdollista määrittää ammattitaudiksi. Lentäjät kävivät varsin vähän valittamassa oireistaan työterveyshuoltoon, jossa käytäneen vasta silloin, kun oire jo selvästi heikentää työtehtävissä vaadittavaa toimintakykyä. Merkittävin lentotoimintaperäisten oireitten esiintymisen kasvu ajoittui 200 Hawk-lentotunnin kohdalle, jolloin koneella saavutetaan eräänlainen optimaalinen G-indeksi eli taktisen liikehtelyn G-tasoylitysten vaihtelu. Tämän jälkeen lentäjät ovat erityisen alttiina akuuteille lennonaikaisille TULE-ongelmille. Oireitten esiintyminen kasvoi eksponentiaalisesti noin 600 lentotuntiin asti. Monimuuttujamallien mukaan työperäisen TULE-oireen esiintyvyysriskiä vähensivät alaraajojen hyvä motoriikka, korkeat valintapisteet ja korkea kaulan fleksion voimataso maksimaalisessa isometrisessä testissä. Yleissotilaallisilla kuntotasoilla ei ollut yhteyttä oireiluun, mutta lihaskunnoltaan voimakkaimmat lentäjät kärsivät tilastollisesti merkittävästi vähemmän haittaa lentotoimintaperäisistä TULE-oireistaan. Yleissotilaallisissa kuntotesteissä lentäjät olivat parempia kuin muut suomalaiset sotilaat. Aktiivisimman lentouran aikana, 30-40-vuotiaina, lentäjien fyysinen suorituskyky oli normaaliväestöön nähden vain keskimääräinen ja urheilijoihin nähden keskimääräistä heikompi. Käytännössä lentäjät eivät kyenneet ylläpitämään valintavaiheen fyysistä suorituskykyään edes kadettivaiheen loppuun asti. Huomattavaa oli lisäksi, että aktiivisen lentouran päätyttyä fyysinen kunto näytti jossain määrin palautuvan kohti lähtötasoa lentäjien ikääntymisestä huolimatta. Lentäjien valintavaiheen aikana mitatun fyysisen suorituskyvyn tason säilyminen aktiivisen lentopalveluksen loppuun asti vaatisi lentäjien fyysisen toimintakyvyn ylläpidon ja kehittämisen tehostamista koulutuksen ja työuran eri vaihessa. Tähän tavoitteeseen nähden Ilmavoimien fyysisen kasvatuksen järjestelyt vaikuttivat alimitoitetuilta. Operatiivisesti huolestuttavaa oli Ilmavoimien ohjaajien fyysisen suorituskyvyn heikentyminen silloin, kun heidän taitojensa puolesta olisi pitänyt olla suorituskykyisimpiä taistelutehtäviinsä. Myös lentäjän terveyttä ja toimintakykyä pitäisi pystyä reaaliaikaisemmin seuraamaan koko lentouran aikana. Ilmavoimille suositellaan moniammatillista lähestymistä sotilaslentäjien toimintakyvyn ylläpitämiseen ja terveysriskien hallintaan yhdessä liikunnan, työterveyshuollon, lentoturvallisuusalan ja operatiivisen suunnittelun asiantuntijoitten kanssa. Lisäksi suositellaan avoimempaa ja eettisesti kestävämpää suhtautumista ammattiin liittyvien terveysongelmien kuvaamiseen sekä fyysisen kunnon kysymyksiin jo lentäjien rekrytointivaiheessa.

Integration of existing military capability models into the Comprehensive Capability Meta-model

Abstract—This paper discusses existing military capability models and proposes a comprehensive capability meta-model (CCMM) which unites the existing capability models into an integrated and hierarchical whole. The Zachman Framework for Enterprise Architecture is used as a structure for the CCMM. The CCMM takes into account the abstraction level, the primary area of application, stakeholders, intrinsic process, and life cycle considerations of each existing capability model, and shows how the models relate to each other. The validity of the CCMM was verified through a survey of subject matter experts. The results suggest that the CCMM is of practical value to various capability stakeholders in many ways, such as helping to improve communication between the different capability communities.

The holistic military capability life cycle model

Abstract - This paper reviews existing military capability models and the capability life cycle. It proposes a holistic capability life-cycle model (HCLCM) that combines capability systems with related capability models. ISO 15288 standard is used as a framework to construct the HCLCM. The HCLCM also shows how capability models and systems relate to each other throughout the capability life cycle. The main contribution of this paper is conceptual in nature. The model complements the existing, but still evolving, understanding of the military capability life cycle in a holistic and systemic way. The model also increases understanding and facilitates communication among various military capability stakeholders.

The Application of Enterprise Architecture Approach to Military Concept Development–Case Study

Abstract—Concept development and experimentation (CD&E) plays an important role in driving strategic transformation in the military community. Defence architecture frameworks, such as the NATO architecture framework, are considered excellent means to support CD&E. There is not much empirical evidence, however, to indicate how enterprise architectures (EA) are applied in the military community or particularly in military CD&E. Consequently, this paper describes and discusses empirical application of the EA approach in CD&E. The research method in the paper is a case study. Situational method engineering (SiME) is used as a framework to adapt the EA approach to the case project of the paper. The findings of the paper suggest that the EA is applicable to CD&E work, although all aspects of the original concept could not be expressed in the EA model of the case project. The results also show that the SiME method can support in applying the EA framework to the CD&E in the case project.

Battled nerves : Finnish soldiers' war experience, trauma, and military psychiatry, 1941–44

I min avhandling undersöker jag av kriget framkallade psykiska störningar hos finländska soldater under fortsättningskriget. Vilka var de psykiskt invalidiserade soldaterna och hurudana var deras traumatiska erfarenheter? Vilken var den bredare upplevelsevärlden vid fronten där störningarna uppstod, och hur kan man förklara att majoriteten av soldaterna ändå klarade sig utan mentala rubbningar i denna av våld präglade miljö? Hur förhöll sig Finlands armé i allmänhet och den krigspsykiatri som utvecklades under kriget specifikt till soldaternas psykiska störningar? Som Matti Ponteva redan 1977 utredde, det totala antalet psykiatriska soldatpatienter under fortsättningskriget var ca 15 700 män. I min undersökning betonar jag att den siffran omfattar endast en del av fenomenet: långt ifrån alla finländska soldater som uppvisade psykiska symptom förpassades från fronten i psykiatrisk vård. De finländska psykiatrerna hade före vinterkriget inte kommit i direkt kontakt med av krig orsakade psykiska störningar. Deras kunskaper kom nästan uteslutande från den tyska krigspsykiatrin, där den ledande tanken framför allt efter första världskriget var att förklara psykiska störningar med soldaternas personliga brister och svagheter. Slutligen resonerar jag, varför synen på soldaternas psykiska störningar på ett så markant sätt skilde sig från synen på andra krigsskador. Att soldater stupade eller sårades fysiskt kunde framställas som yttringar av manligt hjältemod och offervillighet. Att brytas ner psykiskt av kriget blev däremot en tom symbol för våldet och saknade annat innehåll än uttryckligen en meningslöshet. Psykiska störningar associerades med ett moraliskt fördömande och ett stigma av skam, och förutom att man tenderade att förneka och marginalisera deras existens försökte man göra en skillnad mellan dem och den egentliga krigsupplevelsen. Det har varit problematiskt att inkludera de psykiskt rubbade soldaterna i den nationella historieskrivningen fram till våra dagar.

Professional sports and gambling regulation in Finland - Examining the institutional factors of gambling affecting professional sport clubs in Finland

This study examines how to institutional environment of gambling is currently in motion both in Europe and Finland. Furthermore, it examines the criticism by Finnish professional sport clubs directed towards the national gambling monopolies, especially Veikkaus Oy. This criticism addresses the acclaimed issue of low or non-existing sponsorship funds coming to the clubs despite the clubs’ duties to promote Veikkaus Oy in their stadiums etc. In essence the main research objective was to examine the interaction and institutional environments of both Finnish professional sport clubs and gambling regulation. This was done through three sub-objectives: 1) to analyze professional sport as business and its institutional environment 2) to analyze the institutions of gambling in their current state and their potential future 3) to evaluate the potential impact of an institutional change in gambling legislation to the professional sport clubs The findings from Finland were then compared to those of Denmark where an institutional change had occurred in gambling regulation. Empirical data was collected through multiple interviews. Interviewees represented sport clubs (7), sport association (1), sport league (1), Finnish monopoly representatives (2), commercial gambling providers (1), Danish monopoly system representatives (1), Danish sport club (1). In addition a vast amount of secondary data (e.g. Green and white books by EU, court decisions, a variety of studies etc.). Theoretically this study combines the aspects of institutional theory with the theory of professional sports as business. This proved to be a rather new approach and no published literature was found to have done specifically this. The findings of this study are twofold, on the European level it is clear that the momentum if towards a more liberated gambling market while Finland is at the moment trying to go the opposite direction and uphold its monopoly. From the sport club’s level the findings suggest that currently sport clubs do not directly benefit from the funds originated from Veikkaus Oy as these funds are more or less used on the association/league levels. However, the clubs themselves are also lacking in self-criticism as they are lacking in clear sponsorship packages/programs which Veikkaus Oy might be interested in participating. If liberation of the gambling market would occur it is highly possible that that the largest clubs in football and ice-hockey would be the main beneficiaries while smaller clubs and sports could possibly be worse off than currently. These interpretations were well supported by the findings from Denmark.

Enhancing the development of military capabilities by a systems approach

The political environment of security and defence has changed radically in the Western industrialised world since the Cold War. As a response to these changes, since the beginning of the twenty-first century, most Western countries have adopted a ‘capabilities-based approach’ to developing and operating their armed forces. More responsive and versatile military capabilities must be developed to meet the contemporary challenges. The systems approach is seen as a beneficial means of overcoming traps in resolving complex real -world issues by conventional thinking. The main objectives of this dissertation are to explore and assess the means to enhance the development of military capabilities both in concept development and experimentation (CD&E) and in national defence materiel collaboration issues. This research provides a unique perspective, a systems approach, to the development areas of concern in resolving complex real-world issues. This dissertation seeks to increase the understanding of the military capability concept both as a whole and with in its life cycle. The dissertation follows the generic functionalist systems methodology by Jackson. The methodology applies a comprehensive set of constitutive rules to examine the research objectives. This dissertation makes contribution to current studies about military capability. It presents two interdepen dent conceptual capability models: the comprehensive capability meta-model (CCMM) and the holistic capability life cycle model (HCLCM). These models holistically and systematically complement the existing, but still evolving, understanding of military capability and its life cycle. In addition, this dissertation contributes to the scientific discussion of defence procurement in its broad meaning by introducing the holistic model about the national defence materiel collaboration between the defence forces, defence industry and academia. The model connects the key collaborative mechanisms, which currently work in isolation from each other, and take into consideration the unique needs of each partner. This dissertation contributes empirical evidence regarding the benefits of enterprise architectures (EA) to CD&E. The EA approach may add value to traditional concept development by increasing the clarity, consistency and completeness of the concept. The most important use considered for EA in CD&E is that it enables further utilisation of the concept created in the case project.