Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Applying quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of pharmacotherapy of psoriasis

Healthcare providers and policy makers are faced with an ever-increasing number of medical publications. Searching for relevant information and keeping up to date with new research findings remains a constant challenge. It has been widely acknowledged that narrative reviews of the literature are susceptible to several types of bias and a systematic approach may protect against these biases. The aim of this thesis was to apply quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of topical therapies for psoriasis. In particular, to systematically examine the comparative efficacy, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of topical calcipotriol in the treatment of mild-to-moderate psoriasis. Over the years, a wide range of techniques have been used to evaluate the severity of psoriasis and the outcomes from treatment. This lack of standardisation complicates the direct comparison of results and ultimately the pooling of outcomes from different clinical trials. There is a clear requirement for more comprehensive tools for measuring drug efficacy and disease severity in psoriasis. Ideally, the outcome measures need to be simple, relevant, practical, and widely applicable, and the instruments should be reliable, valid and responsive. The results of the meta-analysis reported herein show that calcipotriol is an effective antipsoriatic agent. In the short-tenn, the pooled data found calcipotriol to be more effective than calcitriol, tacalcitol, coal tar and short-contact dithranol. Only potent corticosteroids appeared to have comparable efficacy, with less short-term side-effects. Potent corticosteroids also added to the antipsoriatic effect of calcipotriol, and appeared to suppress the occurrence of calcipotriol-induced irritation. There was insufficient evidence to support any large effects in favour of improvements in efficacy when calcipotriol is used in combination with systemic therapies in patients with severe psoriasis. However, there was a total absence of long-term morbidity data on the effectiveness of any of the interventions studied. Decision analysis showed that, from the perspective of the NHS as payer, the relatively small differences in efficacy between calcipotriol and short-contact dithranol lead to large differences in the direct cost of treating patients with mildto-moderate plaque psoriasis. Further research is needed to examine the clinical and economic issues affecting patients under treatment for psoriasis in the UK. In particular, the maintenance value and cost/benefit ratio for the various treatment strategies, and the assessment of patient's preferences has not yet been adequately addressed for this chronic recurring disease.

Quantitative methods in neuropathology

The last decade has seen a considerable increase in the application of quantitative methods in the study of histological sections of brain tissue and especially in the study of neurodegenerative disease. These disorders are characterised by the deposition and aggregation of abnormal or misfolded proteins in the form of extracellular protein deposits such as senile plaques (SP) and intracellular inclusions such as neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). Quantification of brain lesions and studying the relationships between lesions and normal anatomical features of the brain, including neurons, glial cells, and blood vessels, has become an important method of elucidating disease pathogenesis. This review describes methods for quantifying the abundance of a histological feature such as density, frequency, and 'load' and the sampling methods by which quantitative measures can be obtained including plot/quadrat sampling, transect sampling, and the point-quarter method. In addition, methods for determining the spatial pattern of a histological feature, i.e., whether the feature is distributed at random, regularly, or is aggregated into clusters, are described. These methods include the use of the Poisson and binomial distributions, pattern analysis by regression, Fourier analysis, and methods based on mapped point patterns. Finally, the statistical methods available for studying the degree of spatial correlation between pathological lesions and neurons, glial cells, and blood vessels are described.

Digital Right Management (DRM) and Library Copyright Policy

The purpose of this paper is to introduce Digital Rights Management (DRM) and its implications for content producers, consumers, and libraries. Simply stated, DRM is a technology that allows copyright owners to regulate and manage their content when it is disseminated in a digital format, and it is the reason why some patrons cannot access some of the downloadable digital content provided by libraries. In the first part of this paper, we provide a short introduction to DRM by outlining the entities, the various technologies used as well as usage restrictions that come with DRM. In the second part of the paper are discussed the alternatives for the libraries, using DRM as a tool for library copyright policy and the main documents, which present the position of library organizations towards information legislation.

Comparison between Numerical and Simulation Methods for Age-dependent Branching Models with Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary: 60J80, 60J85, secondary: 62M09, 92D40

Revealing 4-hydroxynonenal-histidine adducts as qualitative and quantitative biomarker of oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation and oxidative homeostasis

Findings on growth regulating activities of the end-product of lipid peroxidation 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE), which acts as a “second messenger of free radicals”, overlapped with the development of antibodies specific for the aldehyde-protein adducts. These led to qualitative immunochemical determinations of the HNE presence in various pathophysiological processes and to the change of consideration of the aldehyde’s bioactivities from toxicity into cell signalling. Moreover, findings of the HNE-protein adduct in various organs under physiological circumstances support the concept of “oxidative homeostasis”, which implies that oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation are not only pathological but also physiological processes. Reactive aldehydes, at least HNE, could play important role in oxidative homeostasis, while complementary research approaches might reveal the relevance of the aldehydic-protein adducts as major biomarkers of oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation and oxidative homeostasis. Aiming to join efforts in such research activities researchers interacting through the International 4-Hydroxynonenal Club acting within the SFRR-International and through networking projects of the system of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) carried validation of the methods for lipid peroxidation and further developed the genuine 4-HNE-His ELISA founding quantitative and qualitative methods for detection of 4-HNE-His adducts as valuable tool to study oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in cell cultures, various organs and tissues and eventually for human plasma and serum analyses [1]. Reference: 1. Weber, Daniela. Lidija, Milkovic. Measurement of HNE-protein adducts in human plasma and serum by ELISA—Comparison of two primary antibodies. Redox Biol. 2013. 226-233.

Global trends in myopia management attitudes and strategies in clinical practice

PURPOSE: Myopia is a global public health issue; however, no information exists as to how potential myopia retardation strategies are being adopted globally. METHODS: A self-administrated, internet-based questionnaire was distributed in six languages, through professional bodies to eye care practitioners globally. The questions examined: awareness of increasing myopia prevalence, perceived efficacy and adoption of available strategies, and reasons for not adopting specific strategies. RESULTS: Of the 971 respondents, concern was higher (median 9/10) in Asia than in any other continent (7/10, p<0.001) and they considered themselves more active in implementing myopia control strategies (8/10) than Australasia and Europe (7/10), with North (4/10) and South America (5/10) being least proactive (p<0.001). Orthokeratology was perceived to be the most effective method of myopia control, followed by increased time outdoors and pharmaceutical approaches, with under-correction and single vision spectacles felt to be the least effective (p<0.05). Although significant intra-regional differences existed, overall most practitioners 67.5 (±37.8)% prescribed single vision spectacles or contact lenses as the primary mode of correction for myopic patients. The main justifications for their reluctance to prescribe alternatives to single vision refractive corrections were increased cost (35.6%), inadequate information (33.3%) and the unpredictability of outcomes (28.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of practitioners' awareness of the efficacy of myopia control techniques, the vast majority still prescribe single vision interventions to young myopes. In view of the increasing prevalence of myopia and existing evidence for interventions to slow myopia progression, clear guidelines for myopia management need to be established.

The complements towards developing a new risk management framework and Its applicability to the Nigerian power sector

The availability of regular supply has been identified as one of the major stimulants for the growth and development of any nation and is thus important for the economic well-being of a nation. The problems of the Nigerian power sector stems from a lot of factors culminating in her slow developmental growth and inability to meet the power demands of her citizens regardless of the abundance of human and natural resources prevalent in the nation. The research therefore had the main aim of investigating the importance and contributions of risk management to the success of projects specific to the power sector. To achieve this aim it was pertinent to examine the efficacy of risk management process in practice and elucidate the various risks typically associated with projects (Construction, Contractual, Political, Financial, Design, Human resource and Environmental risk factors) in the power sector as well as determine the current situation of risk management practice in Nigeria. To address this factors inhibiting the proficiency of the overarching and prevailing issue which have only been subject to limited in-depth academic research, a rigorous mixed research method was adopted (quantitative and qualitative data analysis). A review of the Nigeria power sector was also carried out as a precursor to the data collection stage. Using purposive sampling technique, respondents were identified and a questionnaire survey was administered. The research hypotheses were tested using inferential statistics (Pearson correlation, Chi-square test, t-test and ANOVA technique) and the findings revealed the need for the development of a new risk management implementation Framework. The proposed Framework was tested within a company project, for interpreting the dynamism and essential benefits of risk management with the aim of improving the project performances (time), reducing the level of fragmentation (quality) and improving profitability (cost) within the Nigerian power sector in order to bridge a gap between theory and practice. It was concluded that Nigeria’s poor risk management practices have prevented it from experiencing strong growth and development. The study however, concludes that the successful implementation of the developed risk management framework may help it to attain this status by enabling it to become more prepared and flexible, to face challenges that previously led to project failures, and thus contributing to its prosperity. The research study provides an original contribution theoretically, methodologically and practically which adds to the project risk management body of knowledge and to the Nigerian power sector.

“Mind the gap”: Qualitative Researchers and Mixed Methods Research

This paper presents a heuristic investigation of mixed methods organized around three pairs of opposing standpoints: methods (qualitative vs. quantitative), paradigms (constructivist vs. post positive), and inquiry approaches (dialectical vs. pragmatic).

Manager's Perceptions of Alcohol Server Staffing and Training Methods

Over-consumption of alcoholic beverages is a concern of managers of hotels and motels with a club/lounge, restaurant, and tavern. The authors surveyed members of two industry associations in Oklahoma to ascertain alcohol server training methods and managers' perception of the value of such programs.

Teacher perception of self -determination skills in the inclusive and special education classroom

It has been proposed that special education teachers, who promote self-determination and link it to educational standards, help students with a disability succeed in school. The current school reform movement has focused on accountability through mandates such as the No Child Left Behind Act, 2001, and has emphasized participation in the general curriculum through amendments to the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) of 1997 and 2004. This study informs educators if educational setting, students' type of disability, and subject area taught, influence teachers' opinions about the importance of teaching components leading to self-determination and self-management. ^ The research questions that drive this study are: (1) do secondary school teachers who instruct students with a disability think that self-determination components taught in the classroom will make an important difference in students' school and later postsecondary achievements? and (2) does the type of classroom setting, students' type of disability, or specific subject matter influence teachers' opinions regarding the importance of teaching components related to self-determination and self-management? The collection and interpretation of data were done using descriptive and quantitative methods employing a teacher survey. The survey was administered to secondary teachers who instruct students with disabilities. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The sample consisted of 97 special education teachers currently teaching at the secondary level. ^ The results of the study indicated that teachers believe that self-determination is important for both school life and post school life. However teachers thought these skills to be more important for post school success. Teachers believe that self-determination is more important than self-management skills. Type of disability, educational environment, and subject area were not significant factors. ^

Cortical and Subcortical Changes in Alzheimer’s Disease : A Longitudinal and Quantitative MRI Study

Peer reviewed

Theoretical and Quantitative Comparison of SensibleThings and GSN

This project is aimed at making comparison between current existing Internet- of-Things (IoT) platforms, SensibleThings (ST) and Global Sensors Networks (GSN). Project can be served as a further work of platforms’ investigation. Comparing and learning from each other aim to contribute to the improvement of future platforms development. Detailed comparison is mainly with the respect of platform feature, communication and data present-frequency performance under stress, and platform node scalability performance on one limited device. Study is conducted through developing applications on each platform, and making measuring performance under the same condition in household network environment. So far, all these respects have had results and been concluded. Qualitatively comparing, GSN performs better in the facets of node’s swift development and deployment, data management, node subscription and connection retry mechanism. Whereas, ST is superior in respects of network package encryption, platform reliability, session initializing latency, and degree of developing freedom. In quantitative comparison, nodes on GSN has better data push pressure resistence while ST nodes works with lower session latency. In terms of data present-frequency, ST node can reach higher updating frequency than GSN node. In the aspect of node sclability on one limited device, ST nodes take the advantage in averagely lower latency than GSN node when nodes number is less than 15 on limited device. But due to sharing mechanism of GSN, on one limited device, it's nodes shows more scalable if platform nodes have similar job.

Lantana: current management status and future prospects.

Lantana camara L. is a significant weed of which there are some 650 varieties in over 60 countries or island groups. It has been the focus of biological control attempts for a century, yet still poses major problems in many regions. Lantana has a significant impact on economic and environmental areas and is difficult to control. The key to good management of lantana is constant vigilance. Repeated control of new regrowth is critical to success. Control of new infestations should be a priority because the species is able to expand its range during good seasons, but does not die out during poor conditions. This book is a resource for land managers and researchers on methods of lantana control, particularly biocontrol.

Supporting self-management: development and evaluation of a digital resource for adults with asthma

The problem: Around 300 million people worldwide have asthma and prevalence is increasing. Support for optimal self-management can be effective in improving a range of outcomes and is cost effective, but is underutilised as a treatment strategy. Supporting optimum self-management using digital technology shows promise, but how best to do this is not clear. Aim: The purpose of this project was to explore the potential role of a digital intervention in promoting optimum self-management in adults with asthma. Methods: Following the MRC Guidance on the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions which advocates using theory, evidence, user testing and appropriate modelling and piloting, this project had 3 phases. Phase 1: Examination of the literature to inform phases 2 and 3, using systematic review methods and focussed literature searching. Phase 2: Developing the Living Well with Asthma website. A prototype (paper-based) version of the website was developed iteratively with input from a multidisciplinary expert panel, empirical evidence from the literature (from phase 1), and potential end users via focus groups (adults with asthma and practice nurses). Implementation and behaviour change theories informed this process. The paper-based designs were converted to the website through an iterative user centred process (think aloud studies with adults with asthma). Participants considered contents, layout, and navigation. Development was agile using feedback from the think aloud sessions immediately to inform design and subsequent think aloud sessions. Phase 3: A pilot randomised controlled trial over 12 weeks to evaluate the feasibility of a Phase 3 trial of Living Well with Asthma to support self-management. Primary outcomes were 1) recruitment & retention; 2) website use; 3) Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) score change from baseline; 4) Mini Asthma Quality of Life (AQLQ) score change from baseline. Secondary outcomes were patient activation, adherence, lung function, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), generic quality of life measure (EQ-5D), medication use, prescribing and health services contacts. Results: Phase1: Demonstrated that while digital interventions show promise, with some evidence of effectiveness in certain outcomes, participants were poorly characterised, telling us little about the reach of these interventions. The interventions themselves were poorly described making drawing definitive conclusions about what worked and what did not impossible. Phase 2: The literature indicated that important aspects to cover in any self-management intervention (digital or not) included: asthma action plans, regular health professional review, trigger avoidance, psychological functioning, self-monitoring, inhaler technique, and goal setting. The website asked users to aim to be symptom free. Key behaviours targeted to achieve this include: optimising medication use (including inhaler technique); attending primary care asthma reviews; using asthma action plans; increasing physical activity levels; and stopping smoking. The website had 11 sections, plus email reminders, which promoted these behaviours. Feedback during think aloud studies was mainly positive with most changes focussing on clarification of language, order of pages and usability issues mainly relating to navigation difficulties. Phase 3: To achieve our recruitment target 5383 potential participants were invited, leading to 51 participants randomised (25 to intervention group). Age range 16-78 years; 75% female; 28% from most deprived quintile. Nineteen (76%) of the intervention group used the website for an average of 23 minutes. Non-significant improvements in favour of the intervention group observed in the ACQ score (-0.36; 95% confidence interval: -0.96, 0.23; p=0.225), and mini-AQLQ scores (0.38; -0.13, 0.89; p=0.136). A significant improvement was observed in the activity limitation domain of the mini-AQLQ (0.60; 0.05 to 1.15; p = 0.034). Secondary outcomes showed increased patient activation and reduced reliance on reliever medication. There was no significant difference in the remaining secondary outcomes. There were no adverse events. Conclusion: Living Well with Asthma has been shown to be acceptable to potential end users, and has potential for effectiveness. This intervention merits further development, and subsequent evaluation in a Phase III full scale RCT.