A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Clinical and Fiberoptic Endoscopic Evaluation of Swallowing in Robin Sequence Treated With Nasopharyngeal lntubation: The Importance of Feeding Facilitating Techniques

Objective: To evaluate oral feeding capacity, the swallowing process, and risk for aspiration, both clinically and during fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing, in infants with isolated Robin sequence treated exclusively with nasopharyngeal intubation and feeding facilitating techniques. Design: Longitudinal and prospective study. Setting: Hospital de Reabilitacao de Anomalies Craniofaciais, University of Sao Paulo, Bauru, Brazil. Patients: Eleven infants with isolated Robin sequence, under 2 months of age, treated with nasopharyngeal intubation. Interventions: Feeding facilitating techniques were applied in all infants throughout the study period. The infants were evaluated clinically and through fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing at first, second, and, if necessary, third week of hospitalization (T1, T2, T3). The mean volume of ingested milk was registered during clinical evaluation, and events were registered during feeding. Results: The respiratory status of all infants was improved after nasopharyngeal intubation; 72% of them presented risk for aspiration during fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing at T1. This risk was less frequent when thickened milk was given to the infants and at subsequent evaluations (T2 and T3). Conclusions: Nasopharyngeal intubation aids in stabilizing the airway in isolated Robin sequence, but it does not relate directly to feeding. The risk for aspiration was present in most of the infants, mainly during the first week of hospitalization, and improved within a few weeks, after the use of feeding facilitating techniques.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

The Importance of Adhesive Area Delimitation in a Microshear Bond Strength Experimental Design

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of adhesive area delimitation on the microshear bond strength of different adhesives to dentin. Materials and Methods: Eighteen bovine incisors were sectioned and the exposed dentin surfaces were prepared with 600-grit SIC paper. These teeth were randomly divided into three groups, according to the adhesive to be applied: two-step etch-and-rinse Adper Single Bond 2 (3M ESPE), two-step self-etching Clearfil SE Bond (Kuraray), and one-step Clearfil S(3) Bond (Kuraray). On each dentin surface, 4 samples were built up with the composite resin Z100 (3M ESPE); on 2 of these, a suggested area delimitation technique was employed. After 24 h of storage in water at 37 degrees C, samples were subjected to the microshear bond strength test, and the failure modes were evaluated under optical and scanning electron microscopes. The obtained results were statistical analyzed using two-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test. Results: Groups without area delimitation presented significantly higher bond strength results (p < 0.05) and a higher incidence of cohesive failures. In these groups, fractures tended to occur beyond the limits of the actual adhesive area, while the area restriction technique succeeded in avoiding this phenomenon. The three adhesives performed similarly when area delimitation was employed (p > 0.05), but Clearfil S(3) Bond showed significantly higher bond strength results when no area delimitation was taken into account (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The extension of the adhesive area beyond the limits of the composite cylinder may play an important role in the results of microshear bond strength tests, while the suggested area delimitation technique may lead to less questionable outcomes.

Importance of cone beam computed tomography for diagnosis of calcifying cystic odontogenic tumor associated to odontoma. Report of a case

The calcifying cystic odontogenic tumour (CCOT) is a rare benign cystic neoplasm not infrequently associated with odontoma. This report documents a case of CCOT associated with compound odontoma arising in the anterior maxilla in a 25-year-old woman. Conventional radiographs showed a large calcified mass with poorly visualized radiolucent margins. The extent and condition of the internal structure of the CCOT associated with odontoma was able to be determined based on radiographic findings from cone beam computed tomography. This advanced image technique proved to be extremely useful in the radiographic assessment of this particular neoplasm of the jawbones.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Valproic acid has temporal variability in urinary clearance of metabolites

The reasons for the intra- and interindividual variability in the clearance of valproic acid (VPA) have not been completely characterized. The aim of this study was to examine day-night changes in the clearance of 3-oxo-valproate (3-oxo-VPA), 4-hydroxy-valproate (4-OH-VPA), and valproic acid glucuronides under steady state. Six diurnally active healthy male volunteers ingested 200 mg sodium valproate 12 hourly, at 0800 and 2000, for 28 days. On the last study day, two sequential 12-h urine samples were collected commencing at 2000 the evening before. Plasma samples were obtained at the end of each collection. Following alkaline hydrolysis, urine was analyzed for concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, and 4-OH-VPA. A separate aliquot was assayed for creatinine (CR). The plasma concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, 2-en-VPA, and CR were determined. The analysis of VPA and its metabolites was performed by CC-MS. There was an increase in plasma 3-oxo-VPA concentration at 0800, sampling as compared to 2000 sampling (p < .05). The urinary excretion of 3-oxo-VPA and VPA glucuronides were decreased between 2000 and 0800, compared to between 0800, and 2000, by 30% and 50% respectively (p < .05). These results indicate a nocturnal decrease in renal clearance of 3-oxo-VPA rather than a decrease in the beta -oxidation of VPA at night. These differences were not explained by differences between the sampling periods in CR excretion. These results indicate the importance of collecting samples of 24-h duration when studying metabolic profiles of VPA.