Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Factors affecting motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Singapore crash statistics show that motorcycles are involved in about 54% of crashes at intersections. Moreover, about 46% of fatal and 67% of injury motorcycle crashes occur at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and three-legged signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Analysis of the results shows the number of lanes at the intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median at four-legged intersections and an exclusive right-turn lane and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at three-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. Moreover, motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because of the vulnerability of the motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly on the intersection roadways for both four-legged and three-legged intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Effects of Mobile Phone Distraction at the Onset of Amber Light: Analysis of Driving Simulator Data

Distraction whilst driving on an approach to a signalized intersection is particularly dangerous, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be severe. This study examines the decisions of distracted drivers during the onset of amber lights. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 58 drivers under baseline and handheld mobile phone conditions at the University of IOWA - National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables include age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. An iterative combination of decision tree and logistic regression analyses are employed to identify main effects, non-linearities, and interactions effects. Results show that novice (16-17 years) and younger (18-25 years) drivers’ had heightened amber light running risk while distracted by cell phone, and speed and distance thresholds yielded significant interaction effects. Driver experience captured by age has a multiplicative effect with distraction, making the combined effect of being inexperienced and distracted particularly risky. Solutions are needed to combat the use of mobile phones whilst driving.

Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Democracy, Crime and Justice. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences

As a growing number of nations embark on a path to democracy, criminologists have become increasingly interested and engaged in the challenges, concerns, and questions connecting democracy with both crime and criminal justice. Rising levels of violence and street crime, white collar crime and corruption both in countries where democracy is securely in place and where it is struggling, have fuelled a deepening skepticism as to the capacity of democracy to deliver on its promise of security and justice for all citizens. What role does crime and criminal justice play in the future of democracy and for democratic political development on a global level? The editors of this special volume of The Annals realized the importance of collecting research from a broad spectrum of countries and covering a range of problems that affect citizens, politicians, and criminal justice officials. The articles here represent a solid balance between mature democracies like the U.S. and U.K. as well as emerging democracies around the globe – specifically in Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. They are based on large and small cross-national samples, regional comparisons, and case studies. Each contribution addresses a seminal question for the future of democratic political development across the globe. What is the role of criminal justice in the process of building democracy and instilling confidence in its institutions? Is there a role for unions in democratizing police forces? What is the impact of widespread disenfranchisement of felons on democratic citizenship and the life of democratic institutions? Under what circumstances do mature democracies adopt punitive sentencing regimes? Addressing sensitive topics such as relations between police and the Muslim communities of Western Europe in the wake of terrorist attacks, this volume also sheds light on the effects of terrorism on mature democracies under increasing pressure to provide security for their citizens. By taking a broad vantage point, this collection of research delves into complex topics such as the relationship between the process of democratization and violent crime waves; the impact of rising crime rates on newly established as well as secure democracies; how crime may endanger the transition to democracy; and how existing practices of criminal justice in mature democracies affect their core values and institutions. The collection of these insightful articles not only begins to fill a gap in criminological research but also addresses issues of critical interest to political scientists as well as other social and behavioral scientists and scholars. Taking a fresh approach to the intersection of crime, criminal justice, and democracy, this volume of The Annals is a must-read for criminologists and political scientists and provides a solid foundation for further interdisciplinary research.

Legal Institutions and Collective Memories

In recent decades the debate among scholars, lawyers, politicians and others about how societies deal with their past has been constant and intensive. 'Legal Institutions and Collective Memories' situates the processes of transitional justice at the intersection between legal procedures and the production of collective and shared meanings of the past. Building upon the work of Maurice Halbwachs, this collection of essays emphasises the extended role and active involvement of contemporary law and legal institutions in public discourse about the past, and explores their impact on the shape that collective memories take in the course of time. The authors uncover a complex pattern of searching for truth, negotiating the past and cultivating the art of forgetting. Their contributions explore the ambiguous and intricate links between the production of justice, truth and memory. The essays cover a broad range of legal institutions, countries and topics. These include transitional trials as 'monumental spectacles' as well as constitutional courts, and the restitution of property rights in Central and Eastern Europe and Australia. The authors explore the biographies of victims and how their voices were repressed, as in the case of Korean Comfort Women. They explore the role of law and legal institutions in linking individual and collective memories in the transitional period through processes of lustration, and they analyse divided memories about the past and their impact on future reconciliation in South Africa. The collection offers a genuinely comparative approach, allied to cutting-edge theory.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

The social car : new interactive vehicular applications derived from social media and urban informatics

Digital information that is place- and time-specific, is increasingly becoming available on all aspects of the urban landscape. People (cf. the Social Web), places (cf. the Geo Web), and physical objects (cf. ubiquitous computing, the Internet of Things) are increasingly infused with sensors, actuators, and tagged with a wealth of digital information. Urban informatics research explores these emerging digital layers of the city at the intersection of people, place and technology. However, little is known about the challenges and new opportunities that these digital layers may offer to road users driving through today’s mega cities. We argue that this aspect is worth exploring in particular with regards to Auto-UI’s overarching goal of making cars both safer and more enjoyable. This paper presents the findings of a pilot study, which included 14 urban informatics research experts participating in a guided ideation (idea creation) workshop within a simulated environment. They were immersed into different driving scenarios to imagine novel urban informatics type of applications specific to the driving context.

Blogs, Twitter, and breaking news : the produsage of citizen journalism

Debates over the role and relevance of what has been described as citizen journalism have existed at least since the late 1990s; positions have ranged from the fulsome dismissal of such bottom-up journalism activities (and indeed, almost all user-led content creation) as being part of a new "cult ofthe amateur" (Keen, 2007) to nearly equally simplistic perspectives which predicted citizen journalists would replace the mainstream journalism industry within a short timeframe. A more considered, more realistic perspective would take a somewhat more moderate view. Aided by circumstances including the long-term financial crisis enveloping journalism industries in many developed nations, the creeping corporatization and politicization of journalistic activities in democratic and non-democratic countries alike, and the largely unmet challenge of new, Internet-based media fonns, citizen journalism (as well as other parajournalistic media, including TV comedy such as The Daily Show) has been able to make credible inroads into what used to be the domain of journalism proper.

Reading research methodology and the reading research quarterly : a question of gender

The paper discusses an aspect of reading research methodology as represented by papers published by the Reading Research Quarterly from the beginning of 1989(volume 24, Number 1) to the end of 1993 (volume 28, Number 4). The discussion suggests some points of departure between this research community and an Australian community broadly defined as poststructural. A focus for this investigation is the function of “gender” within the methodological approaches of the two communities. Suggestions are made regarding some potentially productive points of intersection between the work of American and Australian reading researchers.

Physically sound vehicle-driver model for realistic microscopic simulation

In microscopic traffic simulators, the interaction between vehicles is considered. The dynamics of the system then becomes an emergent property of the interaction between its components. Such interactions include lane-changing, car-following behaviours and intersection management. Although, in some cases, such simulators produce realistic prediction, they do not allow for an important aspect of the dynamics, that is, the driver-vehicle interaction. This paper introduces a physically sound vehicle-driver model for realistic microscopic simulation. By building a nanoscopic traffic simulation model that uses steering angle and throttle position as parameters, the model aims to overcome unrealistic acceleration and deceleration values, as found in various microscopic simulation tools. A physics engine calculates the driving force of the vehicle, and the preliminary results presented here, show that, through a realistic driver-vehicle-environment simulator, it becomes possible to model realistic driver and vehicle behaviours in a traffic simulation.

36 million language pairs

This article provides an overview on some of the key aspects that relate to the co-evolution of languages and its associated content in the Internet environment. A focus on such a co-evolution is pertinent as the evolution of languages in the Internet environment can be better understood if the development of its existing and emerging content, that is, the content in the respective language, is taken into consideration. By doing so, this article examines two related aspects: the governance of languages at critical sites of the Internet environment, including ICANN, Wikipedia and Google Translate. Following on from this examination, the second part outlines how the co-evolution of languages and associated content in the Internet environment extends policy-making related to linguistic pluralism. It is argued that policies which centre on language availability in the Internet environment must shift their focus to the dynamics of available content instead. The notion of language pairs as a new regime of intersection for both languages and content is discussed to introduce an extended understanding of the uses of linguistic pluralism in the Internet environment. The ultimate extrapolation of such an enhanced approach, it is argued, centres less on 6,000 languages but, instead, on 36 million language pairs. This article describes how such a powerful resource evolves in the Internet environment.

Navigating the muddy waters of the research into single sex classrooms in co-educational middle years settings

Establishing single sex classes within co-educational sites is an option that Australian schools are again exploring. To date Australia has experienced three ‘waves’ of interest in establishing single sex classes, the first focused on equitable education opportunities for girls (Alloway & Gilbert, 1997), the second centered on boys’ literacy and engagement (Gilbert & Gilbert, 1998) and this current wave focuses on perceived difference between the sexes in co-educational classrooms (Protheroe, 2009; Gurian, Stevens & Daniels, 2009). With the intersection of middle schooling movement, focusing on learner centered classrooms (Pendergast & Bahr, 2010) and current educational agendas aimed at improving student performance and measurable learning outcomes (Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs, 2008), it is understandable that schools are exploring such student grouping options. However, after thirty years of international research into the efficacy of single sex classes in co-educational settings, the results still remain unclear. This paper seeks to navigate the ‘muddy waters’ of this body of research and suggests a framework to help guide school communities through the decision-making process associated with considering single sex classes.

Self-proxy agreement and weekly school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society

Proxy reports from parents and self-reported data from pupils have often been used interchangeably to identify factors influencing school travel behaviour. However, few studies have examined the validity of proxy reports as an alternative to self-reported data. In addition, despite research that has been conducted in a different context, little is known to date about the impact of different factors on school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society. This research examines these issues using 1624 questionnaires collected from four independent samples (e.g. primary pupils, parent of primary pupils, secondary pupils, and parent of secondary pupils) across Northern Ireland. An independent sample t test was conducted to identify the differences in data reporting between pupils and parents for different age groups using the reported number of trips for different modes as dependent variables. Multivariate multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify the impacts of different factors (e.g. gender, rural–urban context, multiple deprivations, and school management type, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density) on mode choice behaviour in this context. Results show that proxy report is a valid alternative to self-reported data, but only for primary pupils. Land use diversity and rural–urban context were found to be the most important factors in influencing mode choice behaviour.