Profit at Risk as a Risk Management Tool in Deregulated Energy Markets

Euroopan energiamarkkinat ovat olleet viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana suurten muutosten alla. Markkinoiden kehitys on ollut huomattavaa myös Iso-Britanniassa, jossa sähkö- ja kaasumarkkinat ovat olleet avoinna kilpailulle jo muutamia vuosia. Ennen markkinoiden avautumista energiyhtiöt pystyivät siirtämään kaikki riskit suoraan asiakkaan kannettaviksi. Markkinoiden avautumisen myötä lisääntynyt kilpailu on kuitenkin pakottanut energiayhtiöitä ajanmukaistamaan näkemyksiään riskeistä. Riskitekijät, joista ei aiemmin tarvinnut välittää, on nyt pystyttävä tunnistamaan ja hallitsemaan. Tämä työ keskittyy hinta- ja volyymiriskien hallintaan. Rahoitusmarkkinoilla pitkään käytettyjä riskienhallintatyökaluja on otettu käyttöön myös energiamarkkinoilla. Energiamarkkinoiden piirteet poikkeavat kuitenkin rahoitusmarkkinoista, eikä näitä työkaluja voida ottaa käyttöön muutoksitta. Silti, jopa muutosten jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinoiden riskienhallitavälineet aliarvioivat energiamarkkinoiden hinta- ja volyymiriskejä. Tässä yhteydessä työssä esitetään Profit at Risk, PaR. PaR on skenaariopohjainen riskienhallinnan työkalu, joka on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille ja täten huomioi niiden erikoispiirteet. Työn rungon muodostavat energiamarkkinoiden käyttäytyminen, hinta- ja volyymiriskitekijät sekä pohdinta miten hinta- ja volyymiriskeiltä voidaan suojautua ja miten niitä voidaan hallita. PaR-metodologiaa verrataan perinteisiin riskienhallintamenetelmiin ja työn tavoitteena on tuoda esiin ne tekijät, joiden ansiosta PaR on sopivampi työkalu energiamarkkinoiden riskienhallintaan kuin perinteiset menetelmät. Käytännön esimerkkinä työssä toimii Fortum Energy plus’n PaR –malli. Koska PaR on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille, se huomioi täysin markkinoiden aiheuttamat hinta- ja volyymiriskit. Käytännön esimerkki kuitenkin osoittaa, että PaR menetelmästä ei ole riskienhallinnallista hyötyä ellei työkalun käyttäjällä ole täydellistä tietämystä niin energiamarkkinoista kuin markkinoiden muutoksiin vaikuttavien tekijöiden käyttäytymisestä.

Adsorption energy and spin state of first-row transition metals adsorbed on MgO(100)

Slab and cluster model spin-polarized calculations have been carried out to study various properties of isolated first-row transition metal atoms adsorbed on the anionic sites of the regular MgO(100) surface. The calculated adsorption energies follow the trend of the metal cohesive energies, indicating that the changes in the metal-support and metal-metal interactions along the series are dominated by atomic properties. In all cases, except for Ni at the generalized gradient approximation level, the number of unpaired electron is maintained as in the isolated metal atom. The energy required to change the atomic state from high to low spin has been computed using the PW91 and B3LYP density-functional-theory-based methods. PW91 fails to predict the proper ground state of V and Ni, but the results for the isolated and adsorbed atom are consistent within the method. B3LYP properly predicts the ground state of all first-row transition atom the high- to low-spin transition considered is comparable to experiment. In all cases, the interaction with the surface results in a reduced high- to low-spin transition energy.

Impact of Sleep and Circadian Disruption on Energy Balance and Diabetes: A Summary of Workshop Discussions.

ABSTRACT: A workshop was held at the National Institute for Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases with a focus on the impact of sleep and circadian disruption on energy balance and diabetes. The workshop identified a number of key principles for research in this area and a number of specific opportunities. Studies in this area would be facilitated by active collaboration between investigators in sleep/circadian research and investigators in metabolism/diabetes. There is a need to translate the elegant findings from basic research into improving the metabolic health of the American public. There is also a need for investigators studying the impact of sleep/circadian disruption in humans to move beyond measurements of insulin and glucose and conduct more in-depth phenotyping. There is also a need for the assessments of sleep and circadian rhythms as well as assessments for sleep-disordered breathing to be incorporated into all ongoing cohort studies related to diabetes risk. Studies in humans need to complement the elegant short-term laboratory-based human studies of simulated short sleep and shift work etc. with studies in subjects in the general population with these disorders. It is conceivable that chronic adaptations occur, and if so, the mechanisms by which they occur needs to be identified and understood. Particular areas of opportunity that are ready for translation are studies to address whether CPAP treatment of patients with pre-diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) prevents or delays the onset of diabetes and whether temporal restricted feeding has the same impact on obesity rates in humans as it does in mice.

Supplier Energy Audits in Thermal Power Plants

This master’s thesis handles an operating model for an electric equipment supplier conducted sale oriented energy audit for pumping, fan and other motor applications at power plants. The study goes through the largest factors affecting internal electricity use at a power plant, finds an energy audit –like approach for the basis of information gathering and presents the information needed for conducting the analysis. The model is tested in practice at a kraft recovery boiler of a chemical pulping mill. Targets chosen represent some of the largest electric motor applications in the boiler itself and in its fuel handling. The energy saving potential of the chosen targets is calculated by simulating the energy consumption of the alternatives for controlling the targets, and thereafter combining the information with the volume flow duration curve. Results of the research are somewhat divaricated, as all the information needed is not available in the automation system. Some of the targets could be simulated and their energy saving potential calculated quite easily. At some of the targets chosen the monitoring was not sufficient enough for this and additional measurements would have been needed to base the calculations on. In traditional energy audits, energy efficiency of pump and fan applications is not necessarily examined. This means that there are good possibilities for developing the now presented targeted energy audit procedure basis further.

Technical Wind Energy Potential in Russia

The goal of the master's thesis is a detailed research of the technical wind energy potential in Russian Federation: the distribution of the potential all over the territory of the country and the possibility of the application of the potential for power supply of various objects. The main attention of the thesis is devoted to the assessment of wind energy resources (potential) of Russian Federation, both for the territory of country in whole and for every region. Theoretical basic wind energy concepts and the scheme of transformation of kinetic energy of a wind into electric energy by modern wind turbines are given in the work. Also the costs of energy, stimuli of development of wind-engineering and obstacles which impact the industry development are analyzed. The review of existent and projected wind power plants in Russia is carried out.

Combined experimental powder X-ray diffraction and DFT data to obtain the lowest energy molecular conformation of friedelin

Friedelin molecular conformers were obtained by Density Functional Theory (DFT) and by ab initio structure determination from powder X-ray diffraction. Their conformers with the five rings in chair-chair-chair-boat-boat, and with all rings in chair, are energy degenerated in gas-phase according to DFT results. The powder diffraction data reveals that rings A, B and C of friedelin are in chair, and rings D and E in boat-boat, conformation. The high correlation values among powder diffraction data, DFT and reported single-crystal data indicate that the use of conventional X-ray diffractometer can be applied in routine laboratory analysis in the absence of a single-crystal diffractometer.

The success factors of the Danish energy service industry

The objective of the research was to understand the success factors of the Danish energy service industry. The research phenomenon was studied greatly but the aim was to examine it from the service logic point of view. The research was threefold and it examined the phenomena from the company, industrial and national levels. The purpose of the multi-level study was to understand all the success factors and to examine how they are combined together. First, the research problem was approached through the literature review. After that, the empirical part of the study was conducted as a case study and the data was collected by theme interviews. The collected data was analyzed through theoretical point of view and compared with earlier studies. This study shows that the most important success factor was the country, because it has affected to the other aspects of the success. Because the actors of the industry are linked together tightly, communication and common understanding of business is essential to the industry success. The new energy technologies do not produce directly added value for the customers. This has sifted energy business towards service business, and the customers have been included in the value creation process.

Cyanobacteria from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes as an energy source and modulators of bioenergetic pathways

Cyanobacteria are a diverse group of oxygenic photosynthetic bacteria that inhabit in a wide range of environments. They are versatile and multifaceted organisms with great possibilities for different biotechnological applications. For example, cyanobacteria produce molecular hydrogen (H2), which is one of the most important alternatives for clean and sustainable energy. Apart from being beneficial, cyanobacteria also possess harmful characteristics and may become a source of threat to human health and other living organisms, as they are able to form surface blooms that are producing a variety of toxic or bioactive compounds. The University of Helsinki Culture Collection (UHCC) maintains around 1,000 cyanobacterial strains representing a large number of genera and species isolated from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes. The culture collection covers different life forms such as unicellular and filamentous, N2-fixing and non-N2-fixing strains, and planktonic and benthic cyanobacteria. In this thesis, the UHCC has been screened to identify potential strains for sustainable biohydrogen production and also for strains that produce compounds modifying the bioenergetic pathways of other cyanobacteria or terrestrial plants. Among the 400 cyanobacterial strains screened so far, ten were identified as high H2-producing strains. The enzyme systems involved in H2 metabolism of cyanobacteria were analyzed using the Southern hybridization approach. This revealed the presence of the enzyme nitrogenase in all strains tested, while none of them are likely to have contained alternative nitrogenases. All the strains tested, except for two Calothrix strains, XSPORK 36C and XSPORK 11A, were suggested to contain both uptake and bidirectional hydrogenases. Moreover, 55 methanol extracts of various cyanobacterial strains were screened to identify potent bioactive compounds affecting the photosynthetic apparatus of the model cyanobacterium, Synechocystis PCC 6803. The extract from Nostoc XPORK 14A was the only one that modified the photosynthetic machinery and dark respiration. The compound responsible for this effect was identified, purified, and named M22. M22 demonstrated a dual-action mechanism: production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) under illumination and an unknown mechanism that also prevailed in the dark. During summer, the Baltic Sea is occupied by toxic blooms of Nodularia spumigena (hereafter referred to as N. spumigena), which produces a hepatotoxin called nodularin. Long-term exposure of the terrestrial plant spinach to nodularin was studied. Such treatment resulted in inhibition of growth and chlorosis of the leaves. Moreover, the activity and amount of mitochondrial electron transfer complexes increased in the leaves exposed to nodularin-containing extract, indicating upregulation of respiratory reactions, whereas no marked changes were detected in the structure or function of the photosynthetic machinery. Nodularin-exposed plants suffered from oxidative stress, evidenced by oxidative modifications of various proteins. Plants initiated strategies to combat the stress by increasing the levels of alpha-tocopherol, mitochondrial alternative oxidase (AOX), and mitochondrial ascorbate peroxidase (mAPX).

Energy demand in citrus production under varied operational efficiency values

Citrus orchards are very important in Brazil, especially in São Paulo State, where occupy an area of 600,000 ha approximately. To identify sustainability degree of citrus production system, an energy analysis allows evaluating efficiency of direct and indirect applied inputs. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate citrus production system under energetic point of view, in which invested energy is paid back with citrus production; being compared within three scenarios for operational field efficiency. As result, by sensitivity analysis was determined that fuel was the main energy demander, followed by pesticides and fertilizers. In operational work capacity analysis, all combinations between efficiency (minimum, typical and maximum) and yield levels became positive in the seventh year, except for the combination minimum efficiency and 10 % less yield, positive in the eighth year. The best combination (maximum efficiency and 10 % more yield) has promoted investment payoff around the sixth and seventh year. By this study, it is possible to determine the total energy demand to produce citrus and indentify the applied inputs that need more attention by the decision-makers. Labor and seedlings can be ommited for further studies with citrus, since they were irrelevant. Management of agricultural machinery may pose an important role on decreasing environmental impact of citrus production.

Current status of the waste-to-energy chain in the County of North Savo, Finland

The aim of this report is to describe the current status of the waste-to-energy chain in the province of Northern Savonia in Finland. This work is part of the Baltic Sea Region Programme project Remowe-Regional Mobilizing of Sustainable Waste-to-Energy Production (2009-2012). Partnering regions across Baltic Sea countries have parallelly investigated the current status, bottle-necks and needs for development in their regions. Information about the current status is crucial for the further work within the Remowe project, e.g. in investigating the possible future status in target regions. Ultimate result from the Northern Savonia point of view will be a regional model which utilizes all available information and facilitates decision-making concerning energy utilization of waste. The report contains information on among others: - waste management system (sources, amounts, infrastructure) - energy system (use, supply, infrastructure) - administrative structure and legislation - actors and stakeholders in the waste-to-energy field, including interest and development ideas The current status of the regions will be compared in a separate Remowe report, with the focus on finding best practices that could be transferred among the regions. In this report, the current status has been defined as 2006-2009. In 2009, the municipal waste amount per capita was 479 kg/inhabitant in Finland. Industrial waste amounted 3550 kg/inhabitant, respectively. The potential bioenergy from biodegradable waste amounts 1 MWh/inhabitant in Northern Savonia. This figure includes animal manure, crops that would be suitable for energy use, sludge from municipal sewage treatment plants and separately collected biowaste. A key strategy influencing also to Remowe work is the waste plan for Eastern Finland. Currently there operate two digestion plants in Northern Savonia: Lehtoniemi municipal sewage treatment sludge digestion plant of Kuopion Vesi and the farm-scale research biogas plant of Agrifood Research Finland in Maaninka. Moreover, landfill gas is collected to energy use from Heinälamminrinne waste management centre and Silmäsuo closed landfill site, both belonging to Jätekukko Oy. Currently there is no thermal utilization of waste in Northern Savonia region. However, Jätekukko Oy is pretreating mixed waste and delivering refuse derived fuel (RDF) to Southern Finland to combustion. There is a strong willingness among seven regional waste management companies in Eastern Finland to build a waste incineration plant to Riikinneva waste management centre near city of Varkaus. The plant would use circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler. This would been a clear boost in waste-to-energy utilization in Northern Savonia and in many surrounding regions.

The effects of location, feedstock availability, and supply-chain logistics on the greenhouse gas emissions of forest-biomass energy utilization in Finland

Forest biomass represents a geographically distributed feedstock, and geographical location affects the greenhouse gas (GHG) performance of a given forest-bioenergy system in several ways. For example, biomass availability, forest operations, transportation possibilities and the distances involved, biomass end-use possibilities, fossil reference systems, and forest carbon balances all depend to some extent on location. The overall objective of this thesis was to assess the GHG emissions derived from supply and energy-utilization chains of forest biomass in Finland, with a specific focus on the effect of location in relation to forest biomass’s availability and the transportation possibilities. Biomass availability and transportation-network assessments were conducted through utilization of geographical information system methods, and the GHG emissions were assessed by means of lifecycle assessment. The thesis is based on four papers in which forest biomass supply on industrial scale was assessed. The feedstocks assessed in this thesis include harvesting residues, smalldiameter energy wood and stumps. The principal implication of the findings in this thesis is that in Finland, the location and availability of biomass in the proximity of a given energyutilization or energy-conversion plant is not a decisive factor in supply-chain GHG emissions or the possible GHG savings to be achieved with forest-biomass energy use. Therefore, for the greatest GHG reductions with limited forest-biomass resources, energy utilization of forest biomass in Finland should be directed to the locations where most GHG savings are achieved through replacement of fossil fuels. Furthermore, one should prioritize the types of forest biomass with the lowest direct supply-chain GHG emissions (e.g., from transport and comminution) and the lowest indirect ones (in particular, soil carbon-stock losses), regardless of location. In this respect, the best combination is to use harvesting residues in combined heat and power production, replacing peat or coal.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

INSPIRE: contributions to Invenio from the leading High Energy Physics (HEP) platform

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Very High Energy Gamma-Rays emitting BL LAC's Population Study

Context: BL Lacs are the most numerous extragalactic objects which are detected in Very High Energy (VHE) gamma-rays band. They are a subclass of blazars. Large flux variability amplitude, sometimes happens in very short time scale, is a common characteristic of them. Significant optical polarization is another main characteristics of BL Lacs. BL Lacs' spectra have a continuous and featureless Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) which have two peaks. Among 1442 BL Lacs in the Roma-BZB catalogue, only 51 are detected in VHE gamma-rays band. BL Lacs are most numerous (more than 50% of 514 objects) objects among the sources that are detected above 10 GeV by FERMI-LAT. Therefore, many BL Lacs are expected to be discovered in VHE gamma-rays band. However, due to the limitation on current and near future technology of Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescope, astronomers are forced to predict whether an object emits VHE gamma-rays or not. Some VHE gamma-ray prediction methods are already introduced but still are not confirmed. Cross band correlations are the building blocks of introducing VHE gamma-rays prediction method. Aims: We will attempt to investigate cross band correlations between flux energy density, luminosity and spectral index of the sample. Also, we will check whether recently discovered MAGIC J2001+435 is a typical BL Lac. Methods: We select a sample of 42 TeV BL Lacs and collect 20 of their properties within five energy bands from literature and Tuorla blazar monitoring program database. All of the data are synchronized to be comparable to each other. Finally, we choose 55 pair of datasets for cross band correlations finding and investigating whether there is any correlation between each pair. For MAGIC J2001+435 we analyze the publicly available SWIFT-XRT data, and use the still unpublished VHE gamma-rays data from MAGIC collaboration. The results are compared to the other sources of the sample. Results: Low state luminosity of multiple detected VHE gamma-rays is strongly correlated luminosities in all other bands. However, the high state does not show such strong correlations. VHE gamma-rays single detected sources have similar behaviour to the low state of multiple detected ones. Finally, MAGIC J2001+435 is a typical TeV BL Lac. However, for some of the properties this source is located at the edge of the whole sample (e.g. in terms of X-rays flux). Keywords: BL Lac(s), Population study, Correlations finding, Multi wavelengths analysis, VHE gamma-rays, gamma-rays, X-rays, Optical, Radio

Large-eddy simulation of wind flows over complex terrains for wind energy applications

Wind energy has obtained outstanding expectations due to risks of global warming and nuclear energy production plant accidents. Nowadays, wind farms are often constructed in areas of complex terrain. A potential wind farm location must have the site thoroughly surveyed and the wind climatology analyzed before installing any hardware. Therefore, modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows over complex terrains containing, e.g. hills, forest, and lakes is of great interest in wind energy applications, as it can help in locating and optimizing the wind farms. Numerical modeling of wind flows using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become a popular technique during the last few decades. Due to the inherent flow variability and large-scale unsteadiness typical in ABL flows in general and especially over complex terrains, the flow can be difficult to be predicted accurately enough by using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Large- Eddy Simulation (LES) resolves the largest and thus most important turbulent eddies and models only the small-scale motions which are more universal than the large eddies and thus easier to model. Therefore, LES is expected to be more suitable for this kind of simulations although it is computationally more expensive than the RANS approach. With the fast development of computers and open-source CFD software during the recent years, the application of LES toward atmospheric flow is becoming increasingly common nowadays. The aim of the work is to simulate atmospheric flows over realistic and complex terrains by means of LES. Evaluation of potential in-land wind park locations will be the main application for these simulations. Development of the LES methodology to simulate the atmospheric flows over realistic terrains is reported in the thesis. The work also aims at validating the LES methodology at a real scale. In the thesis, LES are carried out for flow problems ranging from basic channel flows to real atmospheric flows over one of the most recent real-life complex terrain problems, the Bolund hill. All the simulations reported in the thesis are carried out using a new OpenFOAM® -based LES solver. The solver uses the 4th order time-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme and a fractional step method. Moreover, development of the LES methodology includes special attention to two boundary conditions: the upstream (inflow) and wall boundary conditions. The upstream boundary condition is generated by using the so-called recycling technique, in which the instantaneous flow properties are sampled on aplane downstream of the inlet and mapped back to the inlet at each time step. This technique develops the upstream boundary-layer flow together with the inflow turbulence without using any precursor simulation and thus within a single computational domain. The roughness of the terrain surface is modeled by implementing a new wall function into OpenFOAM® during the thesis work. Both, the recycling method and the newly implemented wall function, are validated for the channel flows at relatively high Reynolds number before applying them to the atmospheric flow applications. After validating the LES model over simple flows, the simulations are carried out for atmospheric boundary-layer flows over two types of hills: first, two-dimensional wind-tunnel hill profiles and second, the Bolund hill located in Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. For the twodimensional wind-tunnel hills, the study focuses on the overall flow behavior as a function of the hill slope. Moreover, the simulations are repeated using another wall function suitable for smooth surfaces, which already existed in OpenFOAM® , in order to study the sensitivity of the flow to the surface roughness in ABL flows. The simulated results obtained using the two wall functions are compared against the wind-tunnel measurements. It is shown that LES using the implemented wall function produces overall satisfactory results on the turbulent flow over the two-dimensional hills. The prediction of the flow separation and reattachment-length for the steeper hill is closer to the measurements than the other numerical studies reported in the past for the same hill geometry. The field measurement campaign performed over the Bolund hill provides the most recent field-experiment dataset for the mean flow and the turbulence properties. A number of research groups have simulated the wind flows over the Bolund hill. Due to the challenging features of the hill such as the almost vertical hill slope, it is considered as an ideal experimental test case for validating micro-scale CFD models for wind energy applications. In this work, the simulated results obtained for two wind directions are compared against the field measurements. It is shown that the present LES can reproduce the complex turbulent wind flow structures over a complicated terrain such as the Bolund hill. Especially, the present LES results show the best prediction of the turbulent kinetic energy with an average error of 24.1%, which is a 43% smaller than any other model results reported in the past for the Bolund case. Finally, the validated LES methodology is demonstrated to simulate the wind flow over the existing Muukko wind farm located in South-Eastern Finland. The simulation is carried out only for one wind direction and the results on the instantaneous and time-averaged wind speeds are briefly reported. The demonstration case is followed by discussions on the practical aspects of LES for the wind resource assessment over a realistic inland wind farm.