Safer by design: using computer simulation to predict the evacuation performance of passenger ships

When designing a new passenger ship or modifiying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the building and aviation industries, computer based evacuation models are being used to tackle similar issues. In these industries, the traditonal restrictive prescriptive approach to design is making way for performance based design methodologies using risk assessment and computer simulation. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models off the promise to quickly and efficiently bring these considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". This paper describes the development of evacuation models with applications to passenger ships and further discusses issues concerning data requirements and validation.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

Advanced evacuation simulation software and its use in warships

The newly formed Escape and Evacuation Naval Authority regulates the provision of abandonment equipment and procedures for all Ministry of Defence Vessels. As such, it assures that access routes on board are evaluated early in the design process to maximize their efficiency and to eliminate, as far as possible, any congestion that might occur during escape. This analysis can be undertaken using a computer-based simulation for given escape scenarios and replicates the layout of the vessel and the interactions between each individual and the ship structure. One such software tool that facilitates this type of analysis is maritimeEXODUS. This tool, through large scale testing and validation, emulates human shipboard behaviour during emergency scenarios; however it is largely based around the behaviour of civilian passengers and fixtures and fittings of merchant vessels. Hence there existed a clear requirement to understand the behaviour of well-trained naval personnel as opposed to civilian passengers and be able to model the fixtures and fittings that are exclusive to warships, thus allowing improvements to both maritimeEXODUS and other software products. Human factor trials using the Royal Navy training facilities at Whale Island, Portsmouth were recently undertaken to collect data that improves our understanding of the aforementioned differences. It is hoped that this data will form the basis of a long-term improvement package that will provide global validation of these simulation tools and assist in the development of specific Escape and Evacuation standards for warships. © 2005: Royal Institution of Naval Architects.

Data collection in support of the modelling of naval vessels

Evacuation analysis of passenger and commercial shipping can be undertaken using computer-based simulation tools such as maritimeEXODUS. These tools emulate human shipboard behaviour during emergency scenarios; however it is largely based around the behaviour of civilian passengers and fixtures and fittings of merchant vessels. If these tools and procedures are to be applied to naval vessels there is a clear requirement to understand the behaviour of well-trained naval personnel interacting with the fixtures and fittings that are exclusive to warships. Human factor trials using Royal Navy training facilities were recently undertaken to collect data to improve our understanding of the performance of naval personnel in warship environments. The trials were designed and conducted by staff from the Fire Safety Engineering Group (FSEG) of the University of Greenwich on behalf of the Sea Technology Group (STG), Defence Procurement Agency. The trials involved a selection of RN volunteers with sea-going experience in warships, operating and traversing structural components under different angles of heel. This paper describes the trials and some of the collected data.

Experiences during three generations of web based learning. Six years of web based communication

This paper tells the story of how a set of university lectures developed during the last six years. The idea is to show how (1) content, (2) communication and (3) assessment have evolved in steps which are named “generations of web learning”. The reader is offered a stepwise description of both didactic foundations of university lectures and practical implementation on a widely available web platform. The relative weight of directive elements has gradually decreased through the “three generations”, whereas characteristics of self-responsibility and self-guided learning have gained in importance. -Content was in early times presented and expected to be learned but in later phases expected to be constructed for examples of case studies. -Communication meant in early phases to deliver assignments to the lecturer but later on to form teams, exchange standpoints and review mutually. -Assessment initially consisted in marks invented and added up by the lecturer but was later enriched by peer review, mutual grading and voting procedures. How much “added value” can the web provide for teaching, training and learning? Six years of experience suggest: mainly insofar as new (collaborative and selfdirected) didactic scenarios are implemented! (DIPF/Orig.)

Impact of the intrinsic motivation on the academic performance through voluntary assignments: An empirical analysis

The students academic performance is a key aspect for all agents involved in a higher education quality program. However, there is no unanimity on how to measure it. Some professionals choose assessing only cognitive aspects while others lean towards assessing the acquisition of certain skills. The need to train increasingly adapted professionals in order to respond to the companies’ demands and being able to compete internationally in a global labour market requires a kind of training that goes beyond memorizing. Critical and logical thinking are amongst written language skills demanded in the field of Social Sciences. The objective of this study is to empirically demonstrate the impact of voluntary assignments on the academic performance of students. Our hypothesis is that students who complete high quality voluntary assignments are those more motivated and, therefore, those with higher grades. An experiment with students from the "Financial Accounting II" during the academic year of 2012/13 at the Business and Economics School of the UCM was carried out. A series of voluntary assessments involving the preparation of accounting essays were proposed in order to develop skills and competencies as a complement to the lessons included in the curriculum of the subject. At the end of the course, the carrying-out or not of the essay together with its critical, reflective quality and style, were compared. Our findings show a relationship between the voluntarily presented papers of quality and the final grade obtained throughout the course. These results show that the students intrinsic motivation is a key element in their academic performance. On the other hand, the teachers role focuses on being a motivating element through the learning process.

Structure-based design of selective high-affinity telomeric quadruplex-binding ligands.

A library of triazole-based telomeric quadruplex-selective ligands has been developed that mimic an established family of tri-substituted acridine-based ligands, using crystal structure data as a starting-point for computer-based design. Binding affinities, estimated by electrospray mass spectrometry, are in accord with the design concept.

Behavioural and cognitive behavioural training interventions for assisting foster carers in the management of difficult behaviour.

Background The provision of training for foster carers is now seen as an important factor contributing to the successful outcome of foster care placements. Since the late 1960s, foster carer training programs have proliferated, and few of the many published and unpublished training curricula have been systematically evaluated. The advent of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) and the research evidence demonstrating its effectiveness as a psychotherapeutic treatment of choice for a range of emotional and behavioural problems, has prompted the development of CBT-based training programmes. CBT approaches to foster care training derive from a ’skill-based’ training format that also seeks to identify and correct problematic thinking patterns that are associated with dysfunctional behaviour by changing and/or challenging maladaptive thoughts and beliefs. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural training interventions in improving a) looked-after children’s behavioural/relationship problems, b) foster carers’ psychological well-being and functioning, c) foster family functioning, d) foster agency outcomes. Search methods We searched databases including: CENTRAL (Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2006), MEDLINE (January 1966 to September 2006), EMBASE (January 1980 to September 2006), CINAHL (January 1982 to September 2006), PsycINFO (January 1872 to September 2006), ASSIA (January 1987 to September 2006), LILACS (up to September 2006), ERIC (January 1965 to September 2006), Sociological Abstracts (January 1963 to September 2006), and the National Research Register 2006 (Issue 3).We contacted experts in the field concerning current research. Selection criteria Random or quasi randomised studies comparing behavioural or cognitive-behavioural-base Data collection and analysis Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information. Main results Six trials involving 463 foster carers were included. Behavioural and cognitive-behavioural training interventions evaluated to date appear to have very little effect on outcomes relating to looked-after children, assessed in relation to psychological functioning, extent of behavioural problems and interpersonal functioning. Results relating to foster carer(s) outcomes also show no evidence of effectiveness in measures of behavioural management skills, attitudes and psychological functioning. Analysis pertaining to fostering agency outcomes did not show any significant results. However, caution is needed in interpreting these findings as their confidence intervals are wide. Authors’ conclusions There is currently little evidence about the efficacy of behavioural or cognitive-behavioural training intervention for foster carers. The need for further research in this area is highlighted.

Development of an Arcellacean (testate lobose amoebae) based transfer function for sedimentary phosphorous in lakes.

Arcellacea (testate lobose amoebae) communities were assessed from 73 sediment-water interface samples collected from 33 lakes in urban and rural settings within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ontario, Canada, as well as from forested control areas in the Lake Simcoe area, Algonquin Park and eastern Ontario. The results were used to: (1) develop a statistically rigorous arcellacean-based training set for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P (OP)) loading; and (2) derive a transfer function to reconstruct OP levels during the post-European settlement era (AD1870s onward) using a chronologically well-constrained core from Haynes Lake on the environmentally sensitive Oak Ridges Moraine, within the GTA. Ordination analysis indicated that OP most influenced arcellacean assemblages, explaining 6.5% (p < 0.005) of total variance. An improved training set where the influence of other important environmental variables (e.g. total organic carbon, total nitrogen, Mg) was reduced, comprised 40 samples from 31 lakes, and was used to construct a transfer function for lacustrine arcellaceans for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using tolerance downweighted weighted averaging (WA-Tol) with inverse deshrinking (RMSEPjack-77pp; r2jack = 0.68). The inferred reconstruction indicates that OP levels remained near pre-settlement background levels from settlement in the late AD 1970s through to the early AD 1970s. Since OP runoff from both forests and pasture is minimal, early agricultural land use within the lake catchment was as most likely pasture and/or was used to grow perennial crops such as Timothy-grass for hay. A significant increase in inferred OP concentration beginning ~ AD 1972 may have been related to a change in crops (e.g. corn production) in the catchment resulting in more runoff, and the introduction of chemical fertilizers. A dramatic decline in OP after ~ AD 1985 probably corresponds to a reduction in chemical fertilizer use related to advances in agronomy, which permitted a more precise control over required fertilizer application. Another significant increase in OP levels after ~ AD 1995 may have been related to the construction of a large golf course upslope and immediately to the north of Haynes Lake in AD 1993, where significant fertilizer use is required to maintain the fairways. These results demonstrate that arcellaceans have great potential for reconstructing lake water geochemistry and will complement other proxies (e.g. diatoms) in paleolimnological research.

Do challenge, task experience or computer familiarity influence the learning of historical chronology from virtual environments in 8–9 year old children?

Studies examined the potential use of Virtual Environments (VEs) in teaching historical chronology to 127 children of primary school age (8–9 years). The use of passive fly-through VEs had been found, in an earlier study, to be disadvantageous with this age group when tested for their subsequent ability to place displayed sequential events in correct chronological order. All VEs in the present studies included active challenge, previously shown to enhance learning in older participants. Primary school children in the UK (all frequent computer users) were tested using UK historical materials, but no significant effect was found between three conditions (Paper, PowerPoint and VE) with minimal pre-training. However, excellent (error free) learning occurred when children were allowed greater exploration prior to training in the VE. In Ukraine, with children having much less computer familiarity, training in a VE (depicting Ukrainian history) produced better learning compared to PowerPoint, but no better than in a Paper condition. The results confirmed the benefit of using challenge in a VE with primary age children, but only with adequate prior familiarisation with the medium. Familiarity may reduce working memory load and increase children’s spatial memory capacity for acquiring sequential temporal-spatial information from virtual displays. Keywords: timeline, chronographics

Risk Modelling Framework for Emergency Hospital Readmission, Using Hospital Episode Statistics Inpatient Data

The objective of this study was to develop, test and benchmark a framework and a predictive risk model for hospital emergency readmission within 12 months. We performed the development using routinely collected Hospital Episode Statistics data covering inpatient hospital admissions in England. Three different timeframes were used for training, testing and benchmarking: 1999 to 2004, 2000 to 2005 and 2004 to 2009 financial years. Each timeframe includes 20% of all inpatients admitted within the trigger year. The comparisons were made using positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity for different risk cut-offs, risk bands and top risk segments, together with the receiver operating characteristic curve. The constructed Bayes Point Machine using this feature selection framework produces a risk probability for each admitted patient, and it was validated for different timeframes, sub-populations and cut-off points. At risk cut-off of 50%, the positive predictive value was 69.3% to 73.7%, the specificity was 88.0% to 88.9% and sensitivity was 44.5% to 46.3% across different timeframes. Also, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 73.0% to 74.3%. The developed framework and model performed considerably better than existing modelling approaches with high precision and moderate sensitivity.

Personality, emotion, and mood in agent-based group decision making

Group decision making plays an important role in organizations, especially in the present-day economy that demands high-quality, yet quick decisions. Group decision-support systems (GDSSs) are interactive computer-based environments that support concerted, coordinated team efforts toward the completion of joint tasks. The need for collaborative work in organizations has led to the development of a set of general collaborative computer-supported technologies and specific GDSSs that support distributed groups (in time and space) in various domains. However, each person is unique and has different reactions to various arguments. Many times a disagreement arises because of the way we began arguing, not because of the content itself. Nevertheless, emotion, mood, and personality factors have not yet been addressed in GDSSs, despite how strongly they influence results. Our group’s previous work considered the roles that emotion and mood play in decision making. In this article, we reformulate these factors and include personality as well. Thus, this work incorporates personality, emotion, and mood in the negotiation process of an argumentbased group decision-making process. Our main goal in this work is to improve the negotiation process through argumentation using the affective characteristics of the involved participants. Each participant agent represents a group decision member. This representation lets us simulate people with different personalities. The discussion process between group members (agents) is made through the exchange of persuasive arguments. Although our multiagent architecture model4 includes two types of agents—the facilitator and the participant— this article focuses on the emotional, personality, and argumentation components of the participant agent.

The effects of computer assisted interactive fiction on the development of reading comprehension in grade five students

This study was undertaken in order to determine the effects of playing computer based text adventure games on the reading comprehension gains of students. Forty-five grade five students from one elementary school were randomly assigned to experimental and control groups, and were tested with regard to ability, achievement and reading skills. An experimental treatment, consisting of playing computer based interactive fiction games of the student's choice for fifteen minutes each day over an eight-week period, was administered. A comparison treatment engaged the control group in sustained silent reading of materials of the student's choice for an equal period of time. Following the experimental period all students were post-tested with an alternate form of the pre-test in reading skills, and gain scores were analysed. It was found that there were no significant differences in the gain scores of the experimental and control groups for overall reading comprehenSion, but the experimental group showed greater gains than the control group in the structural analysis reading sub-skill. Extreme variance in the data made generalization very difficult, but the findings indicated a potential for computer based interactive fiction as a useful tool for developing reading sl