Learning Classes Correlated to a Hierarchy

Trees are a common way of organizing large amounts of information by placing items with similar characteristics near one another in the tree. We introduce a classification problem where a given tree structure gives us information on the best way to label nearby elements. We suggest there are many practical problems that fall under this domain. We propose a way to map the classification problem onto a standard Bayesian inference problem. We also give a fast, specialized inference algorithm that incrementally updates relevant probabilities. We apply this algorithm to web-classification problems and show that our algorithm empirically works well.

Temporal Dynamics of Decision-Making during Motion Perception in the Visual Cortex

How does the brain make decisions? Speed and accuracy of perceptual decisions covary with certainty in the input, and correlate with the rate of evidence accumulation in parietal and frontal cortical "decision neurons." A biophysically realistic model of interactions within and between Retina/LGN and cortical areas V1, MT, MST, and LIP, gated by basal ganglia, simulates dynamic properties of decision-making in response to ambiguous visual motion stimuli used by Newsome, Shadlen, and colleagues in their neurophysiological experiments. The model clarifies how brain circuits that solve the aperture problem interact with a recurrent competitive network with self-normalizing choice properties to carry out probablistic decisions in real time. Some scientists claim that perception and decision-making can be described using Bayesian inference or related general statistical ideas, that estimate the optimal interpretation of the stimulus given priors and likelihoods. However, such concepts do not propose the neocortical mechanisms that enable perception, and make decisions. The present model explains behavioral and neurophysiological decision-making data without an appeal to Bayesian concepts and, unlike other existing models of these data, generates perceptual representations and choice dynamics in response to the experimental visual stimuli. Quantitative model simulations include the time course of LIP neuronal dynamics, as well as behavioral accuracy and reaction time properties, during both correct and error trials at different levels of input ambiguity in both fixed duration and reaction time tasks. Model MT/MST interactions compute the global direction of random dot motion stimuli, while model LIP computes the stochastic perceptual decision that leads to a saccadic eye movement.

Newly resolved relationships in an early land plant lineage: Bryophyta class Sphagnopsida (peat mosses).

UNLABELLED: PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The Sphagnopsida, an early-diverging lineage of mosses (phylum Bryophyta), are morphologically and ecologically unique and have profound impacts on global climate. The Sphagnopsida are currently classified in two genera, Sphagnum (peat mosses) with some 350-500 species and Ambuchanania with one species. An analysis of phylogenetic relationships among species and genera in the Sphagnopsida were conducted to resolve major lineages and relationships among species within the Sphagnopsida. • METHODS: Phylogenetic analyses of nucleotide sequences from the nuclear, plastid, and mitochondrial genomes (11 704 nucleotides total) were conducted and analyzed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference employing seven different substitution models of varying complexity. • KEY RESULTS: Phylogenetic analyses resolved three lineages within the Sphagnopsida: (1) Sphagnum sericeum, (2) S. inretortum plus Ambuchanania leucobryoides, and (3) all remaining species of Sphagnum. Sister group relationships among these three clades could not be resolved, but the phylogenetic results indicate that the highly divergent morphology of A. leucobryoides is derived within the Sphagnopsida rather than plesiomorphic. A new classification is proposed for class Sphagnopsida, with one order (Sphagnales), three families, and four genera. • CONCLUSIONS: The Sphagnopsida are an old lineage within the phylum Bryophyta, but the extant species of Sphagnum represent a relatively recent radiation. It is likely that additional species critical to understanding the evolution of peat mosses await discovery, especially in the southern hemisphere.

Morphologically cryptic biological species within the liverwort Frullania asagrayana.

UNLABELLED: PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The Frullania tamarisci complex includes eight Holarctic liverwort species. One of these, F. asagrayana, is distributed broadly throughout eastern North America from Canada to the Gulf Coast. Preliminary genetic data suggested that the species includes two groups of populations. This study was designed to test whether the two groups are reproductively isolated biological species. • METHODS: Eighty-eight samples from across the range of F. asagrayana, plus 73 samples from one population, were genotyped for 13 microsatellite loci. Sequences for two plastid loci and nrITS were obtained from 13 accessions. Genetic data were analyzed using coalescent models and Bayesian inference. • KEY RESULTS: Frullania asagrayana is sequence-invariant at the two plastid loci and ITS2, but two clear groups were resolved by microsatellites. The two groups are largely reproductively isolated, but there is a low level of gene flow from the southern to the northern group. No gene flow was detected in the other direction. A local population was heterogeneous but displayed strong genetic structure. • CONCLUSIONS: The genetic structure of F. asagrayana in eastern North America reflects morphologically cryptic differentiation between reproductively isolated groups of populations, near-panmixis within groups, and clonal propagation at local scales. Reproductive isolation between groups that are invariant at the level of nucleotide sequences shows that caution must be exercised in making taxonomic and evolutionary inferences from reciprocal monophyly (or lack thereof) between putative species.

Lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial regression

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a log-normal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).

Are Prorocentrum hoffmannianum and Prorocentrum belizeanum (Dinophyceae, Prorocentrales), the same species? An integration of morphological and molecular data.

The taxonomic assignment of Prorocentrum species is based on morphological characteristics; however, morphological variability has been found for several taxa isolated from different geographical regions. In this study, we evaluated species boundaries of Prorocentrum hoffmannianum and Prorocentrum belizeanum based on morphological and molecular data. A detailed morphological analysis was done, concentrating on the periflagellar architecture. Molecular analyses were performed on partial Small Sub-Unit (SSU) rDNA, partial Large Sub-Unit (LSU) rDNA, complete Internal Transcribed Spacer Regions (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2), and partial cytochrome b (cob) sequences. We concatenated the SSU-ITS-LSU fragments and constructed a phylogenetic tree using Bayesian Inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods. Morphological analyses indicated that the main characters, such as cell size and number of depressions per valve, normally used to distinguish P. hoffmannianum from P. belizeanum, overlapped. No clear differences were found in the periflagellar area architecture. Prorocentrum hoffmannianum and P. belizeanum were a highly supported monophyletic clade separated into three subclades, which broadly corresponded to the sample collection regions. Subtle morphological overlaps found in cell shape, size, and ornamentation lead us to conclude that P. hoffmanianum and P. belizeanum might be considered conspecific. The molecular data analyses did not separate P. hoffmannianum and P. belizeanum into two morphospecies, and thus, we considered them to be the P. hoffmannianum species complex because their clades are separated by their geographic origin. These geographic and genetically distinct clades could be referred to as ribotypes: (A) Belize, (B) Florida-Cuba, (C1) India, and (C2) Australia.

Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.

The ejected mass distribution of Type Ia supernovae: a significant rate of non-Chandrasekhar-mass progenitors

The ejected mass distribution of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) directly probes progenitor evolutionary history and explosion mechanisms, with implications for their use as cosmological probes. Although the Chandrasekhar mass is a natural mass scale for the explosion of white dwarfs as SNe Ia, models allowing SNe Ia to explode at other masses have attracted much recent attention. Using an empirical relation between the ejected mass and the light-curve width, we derive ejected masses Mej and 56Ni masses MNi for a sample of 337 SNe Ia with redshifts z <0.7 used in recent cosmological analyses. We use hierarchical Bayesian inference to reconstruct the joint Mej-MNi distribution, accounting for measurement errors. The inferred marginal distribution of Mej has a long tail towards sub-Chandrasekhar masses, but cuts off sharply above 1.4 M⊙. Our results imply that 25-50 per cent of normal SNe Ia are inconsistent with Chandrasekhar-mass explosions, with almost all of these being sub-Chandrasekhar mass; super-Chandrasekhar-mass explosions make up no more than 1 per cent of all spectroscopically normal SNe Ia. We interpret the SN Ia width-luminosity relation as an underlying relation between Mej and MNi, and show that the inferred relation is not naturally explained by the predictions of any single known explosion mechanism.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Micromorphology of the labellum and structure of the osmophore in a group of closely related species of the sexually deceptive Orchid genus Ophrys (orchidaceae)

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Celular), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

The evolutionary history of the CD209 (DC-SIGN) family in humans and non-human primates

The CD209 gene family that encodes C-type lectins in primates includes CD209 (DC-SIGN), CD209L (L-SIGN) and CD209L2. Understanding the evolution of these genes can help understand the duplication events generating this family, the process leading to the repeated neck region and identify protein domains under selective pressure. We compiled sequences from 14 primates representing 40 million years of evolution and from three non-primate mammal species. Phylogenetic analyses used Bayesian inference, and nucleotide substitutional patterns were assessed by codon-based maximum likelihood. Analyses suggest that CD209 genes emerged from a first duplication event in the common ancestor of anthropoids, yielding CD209L2 and an ancestral CD209 gene, which, in turn, duplicated in the common Old World primate ancestor, giving rise to CD209L and CD209. K(A)/K(S) values averaged over the entire tree were 0.43 (CD209), 0.52 (CD209L) and 0.35 (CD209L2), consistent with overall signatures of purifying selection. We also assessed the Toll-like receptor (TLR) gene family, which shares with CD209 genes a common profile of evolutionary constraint. The general feature of purifying selection of CD209 genes, despite an apparent redundancy (gene absence and gene loss), may reflect the need to faithfully recognize a multiplicity of pathogen motifs, commensals and a number of self-antigens

Evolutionary Origin and Maintenance of Sociality in the Small Carpenter Bees

Many arthropods exhibit behaviours precursory to social life, including adult longevity, parental care, nest loyalty and mutual tolerance, yet there are few examples of social behaviour in this phylum. The small carpenter bees, genus Ceratina, provide important insights into the early stages of sociality. I described the biology and social behaviour of five facultatively social species which exhibit all of the preadaptations for successful group living, yet present ecological and behavioural characteristics that seemingly disfavour frequent colony formation. These species are socially polymorphic with both / solitary and social nests collected in sympatry. Social colonies consist of two adult females, one contributing both foraging and reproductive effort and the second which remains at the nest as a passive guard. Cooperative nesting provides no overt reproductive benefits over solitary nesting, although brood survival tends to be greater in social colonies. Three main theories explain cooperation among conspecifics: mutual benefit, kin selection and manipulation. Lifetime reproductive success calculations revealed that mutual benefit does not explain social behaviour in this group as social colonies have lower per capita life time reproductive success than solitary nests. Genetic pedigrees constructed from allozyme data indicate that kin selection might contribute to the maintenance of social nesting -, as social colonies consist of full sisters and thus some indirect fitness benefits are inherently bestowed on subordinate females as a result of remaining to help their dominant sister. These data suggest that the origin of sociality in ceratinines has principal costs and the great ecological success of highly eusociallineages occurred well after social origins. Ecological constraints such as resource limitation, unfavourable weather conditions and parasite pressure have long been considered some of the most important selective pressures for the evolution of sociality. I assessed the fitness consequences of these three ecological factors for reproductive success of solitary and social colonies and found that nest sites were not limiting, and the frequency of social nesting was consistent across brood rearing seasons. Local weather varied between seasons but was not correlated with reproductive success. Severe parasitism resulted in low reproductive success and total nest failure in solitary nests. Social colonies had higher reproductive success and were never extirpated by parasites. I suggest that social nesting represents a form of bet-hedging. The high frequency of solitary nests suggests that this is the optimal strategy when parasite pressure is low. However, social colonies have a selective advantage over solitary nesting females during periods of extreme parasite pressure. Finally, the small carpenter bees are recorded from all continents except Antarctica. I constructed the first molecular phylogeny of ceratinine bees based on four gene regions of selected species covering representatives from all continents and ecological regions. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian Inference tree topology and fossil dating support an African origin followed by an Old World invasion and New World radiation. All known Old World ceratinines form social colonies while New World species are largely solitary; thus geography and phylogenetic inertia are likely predictors of social evolution in this genus. This integrative approach not only describes the behaviour of several previously unknown or little-known Ceratina species, bu~ highlights the fact that this is an important, though previously unrecognized, model for studying evolutionary transitions from solitary to social behaviour.

Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains

We propose an alternate parameterization of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains, and a decomposition of the parameter into time reversible and time irreversible parts. We demonstrate some useful properties of the decomposition, and propose an index for a certain type of time irreversibility. Two empirical examples illustrate the use of the proposed parameter, decomposition and index. One involves observed states; the other, latent states.

Les neurosciences cognitives du langage, de l'autisme et des styles cognitifs

VERSION ANGLAISE DISPONIBLE AU DÉPARTEMENT; THÈSE RÉALISÉE CONJOINTEMENT AVEC L'ÉCOLE DES SCIENCES DE LA COMMUNICATION DE L'UNIVERSITÉ MCGILL (DRS. K. STEINHAUER ET J.E. DRURY).