A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium

We propose a simple adaptive procedure for playing a game. In thisprocedure, players depart from their current play with probabilities thatare proportional to measures of regret for not having used other strategies(these measures are updated every period). It is shown that our adaptiveprocedure guaranties that with probability one, the sample distributionsof play converge to the set of correlated equilibria of the game. Tocompute these regret measures, a player needs to know his payoff functionand the history of play. We also offer a variation where every playerknows only his own realized payoff history (but not his payoff function).

Existence of sparsely supported correlated equilibria

We show that every finite N-player normal form game possesses a correlated equilibrium with a precise lower bound on the number of outcomes to which it assigns zero probability. In particular, the largest games with a unique fully supported correlated equilibrium are two-player games; moreover, the lower bound grows exponentially in the number of players N.

A non-quasi-competitive Cournot oligopoly with stability

This paper presents a classical Cournot oligopoly model with some peculiar features: it is non--quasi--competitive as price under N-poly is greater than monopoly price; Cournot equilibrium exists and is unique with each new entry; the successive equilibria after new entries are stable under the adjustment mechanism that assumes that actual output of each seller is adjusted proportionally to the difference between actual output and profit maximizing output. Moreover, the model tends to perfect competition as N goes to infinity, reaching the monopoly price again.

Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Design and construction of precision heat fluxmeters

The possibility of local elastic instabilities is considered in a first¿order structural phase transition, typically a thermoelastic martensitic transformation, with associated interfacial and volumic strain energy. They appear, for instance, as the result of shape change accommodation by simultaneous growth of different crystallographic variants. The treatment is phenomenological and deals with growth in both thermoelastic equilibrium and in nonequilibrium conditions produced by the elastic instability. Scaling of the transformed fraction curves against temperature is predicted only in the case of purely thermoelastic growth. The role of the transformation latent heat on the relaxation kinetics is also considered, and it is shown that it tends to increase the characteristic relaxation times as adiabatic conditions are approached, by keeping the system closer to a constant temperature. The analysis also reveals that the energy dissipated in the relaxation process has a double origin: release of elastic energy Wi and entropy production Si. The latter is shown to depend on both temperature rate and thermal conduction in the system.

Innovative Solutions for Slope Stability Reinforcement and Characterization: Vol. I, TR-489, 2005

Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. Characterization of slope failures is complicated, because the factors affecting slope stability can be difficult to discern and measure, particularly soil shear strength parameters. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this research consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. The current research focuses on applying an infrequently-used testing technique comprised of the Borehole Shear Test (BST). This in-situ test rapidly provides effective (i.e., drained) shear strength parameter values of soil. Using the BST device, fifteen Iowa slopes (fourteen failures and one proposed slope) were investigated and documented. Particular attention was paid to highly weathered shale and glacial till soil deposits, which have both been associated with slope failures in the southern Iowa drift region. Conventional laboratory tests including direct shear tests, triaxial compression tests, and ring shear tests were also performed on undisturbed and reconstituted soil samples to supplement BST results. The shear strength measurements were incorporated into complete evaluations of slope stability using both limit equilibrium and probabilistic analyses. The research methods and findings of these investigations are summarized in Volume 1 of this report. Research details of the independent characterization and reinforcement investigations are provided in Volumes 2 and 3, respectively. Combined, the field investigations offer guidance on identifying the factors that affect slope stability at a particular location and also on designing slope reinforcement using pile elements for cases where remedial measures are necessary. The research findings are expected to benefit civil and geotechnical engineers of government transportation agencies, consultants, and contractors dealing with slope stability, slope remediation, and geotechnical testing in Iowa.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Population genetic structure in the native and introduced range of the Argentine ant/

SUMMARY : The evolution of animal societies, where some individuals forego their own reproductive opportunities to help others to reproduce, poses an evolutionary paradox that can be traced back to Darwin. Altruism may evolve through kin selection when the donor and recipient of altruistic acts are related to each other. In social insects, workers are generally highly related to the brood they rear when colonies are headed by a single queen. Yet some ants have an extraordinary social organization, called unicoloniality, whereby individuals from separate nests mix freely to form large supercolonies, which in some cases extend over hundreds of km. These supercolonies are characterised by a high number of queens (polygyny) and an absence of clear colony boundaries. This type of social organization represents an evolutionary paradox because relatedness between nestmates is effectively zero. In such conditions, kin selection cannot account for the evolution of reproductive altruism. Moreover, unicoloniality is thought to be unstable over time, because workers that can no longer aid close relatives may evolve more selfish strategies. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is a highly invasive species listed among the hundred world's worst invaders by the UICN. Native from South America, L. humile has been accidentally introduced throughout the world. Native populations have been described as noninvasive with a family-based organization. In contrast, within its introduction range, they form unicolonial supercolonies that contain numerous nests without intraspecific aggression. The development of such unicolonial populations has been explained as a direct consequence of the ant's introduction into a new habitat, favouring a transition from family-based to open colonies. To determine if the social structure of the Argentine ant is fundamentally different between the native and the introduced range, we studied genetically and behaviourally native and introduced populations of L. humile over different geographic scales. Our results clearly indicated that there are no fundamental differences in the social organisation of the Argentine ant between the two ranges. Our investigations revealed that, contrary to previous claims, native populations have a unicolonial social organisation very similar to that observed in the introduced range. Consequently, the unicolonial social structure of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with introduction into new habitats but evolved in the native range and is likely a stable, evolutionarily ancient adaptation to the local environment. Our study on native populations of L. humile also gave important insight in the comprehension of the evolution of unicoloniality in the Argentine ant. Native supercolonies are relatively small compared to introduced ones and may co-habit in a same population. These supercolonies are genetically highly differentiated leading to a significant relatedness among nestmate workers when the different supercolonies of a population are taken as a reference population. This provides the necessary conditions for loin selection to operate. Furthermore, we examined a native population over time, which revealed a high supercolony extinction rate. If more competitive supercolonies are more likely to survive or replace other supercolonies, a subtle dynamical process between the spread of selfish traits within supercolony and the selective elimination of supercolonies with such traits may allow a stable equilibrium and the persistence of unicoloniality over time. Finally, a worldwide study of the Argentine ant showed that the introduced supercolonies originate from numerous independent introduction events. In conclusion, the success of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with its introduction into new habitats, but is most probably explained by the intrinsic characteristics developed in its native range. RESUME : L'altruisme de reproduction où certains individus renoncent à leur propre reproduction pour aider d'autres individus à se reproduire constitue l'un des plus grand paradoxe de l'évolution. En effet, comment expliquer l'évolution de comportements qui tendent à augmenter les chances de survie et le succès reproductif d'autres individus, alors que ces actes diminuent l'aptitude de leurs auteurs ? La théorie de la sélection de parentèle permet de résoudre ce problème. Cette théorie stipule qu'en aidant de proches parents à se reproduire, les individus peuvent promouvoir indirectement la transmission de copies de leurs propres gènes à la génération suivante. Chez les insectes sociaux, l'altruisme des ouvrières s'explique par la théorie de sélection de parentèle lorsque les colonies sont monogynes (constituées d'une seule reine) puisque les ouvrières sont fortement apparentées aux couvains dont elles s'occupent. Par contre, les espèces dites unicoloniales, dont les colonies forment des réseaux de nids appelés supercolonies, représentent toujours un paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution puisque l'apparentement entre les différents individus d'un nid est nulle. De plus, l'unicolonialité ne devrait pas être stable sur le long terme parce que les ouvrières qui ne s'occupent plus de leur apparentés devraient développer des stratégies plus égoïstes au cours du temps. La fourmi d'Argentine (Linepithema humile) est une espèce invasive ayant un impact considérable sur son environnement. Originaire d'Amérique du Sud, elle a été introduite dans pratiquement toutes les régions du monde dont le climat est de type méditerranéen. Son incroyable succès invasif s'explique par sa structure sociale unicoloniale observée dans chacun des pays où elle a été introduite. Par contre, les rares études effectuées en Argentine ont suggéré que la fourmi d'Argentine n'était pas unicoloniale dans son aire native. L'unicolonialité chez la fourmi d'Argentine était donc considéré comme une conséquence de son introduction dans de nouveaux environnements. Durant cette thèse, nous avons vérifié si la structure sociale de cette espèce différait fondamentalement entre l'aire native et introduite. Pour cela, nous avons étudié, à différentes échelles géographiques, des populations introduites et argentines avec une approche génétique et comportementale. L'ensemble de nos résultats montrent que les différences entre les deux structure sociales ne sont pas aussi importantes que ce que l'on imaginait. Les populations natives sont aussi constituées de réseaux de nids coopérants. La taille de ses supercolonies est toutefois bien moins importante en Argentine et il n'est pas rare de trouver plusieurs supercolonies cohabitantes dans une même population. Nous avons démontré que ces réseaux de nids étaient constitués d'individus qui sont plus apparentés entre eux qu'ils ne le sont avec les individus d'autres supercolonies, ainsi l'unicolonialité dans son aire d'origine ne représente pas un réel paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution. Finalement nous avons étudié la même population en Argentine à six ans d'intervalle et avons constaté que les supercolonies avaient un taux de survie très faible ce qui pourrait expliquer la stabilité de l'unicolonialité au cours du temps. Si les supercolonies les plus compétitives survivent mieux que les supercolonies dans lesquelles apparaissent des traits égoïstes, on devrait alors observer une dynamique entre l'apparition de traits égoïstes et l'élimination des supercolonies dans lesquelles ces traits égoïstes évolueraient. Finalement, une étude mondiale nous a montré que les supercolonies étaient originaires de nombreux événements d'introductions indépendants. En conclusion, le succès invasif de la fourmi d'Argentine n'est donc pas dû à un changement de comportement associé à son introduction mais est lié aux caractéristiques qu'elle a développées en Argentine.

Theoretical Analysis and Simulations of Vertically Vibrated Granular Materials

The dynamical properties ofshaken granular materials are important in many industrial applications where the shaking is used to mix, segregate and transport them. In this work asystematic, large scale simulation study has been performed to investigate the rheology of dense granular media, in the presence of gas, in a three dimensional vertical cylinder filled with glass balls. The base wall of the cylinder is subjected to sinusoidal oscillation in the vertical direction. The viscoelastic behavior of glass balls during a collision, have been studied experimentally using a modified Newton's Cradle device. By analyzing the results of the measurements, using numerical model based on finite element method, the viscous damping coefficient was determinedfor the glass balls. To obtain detailed information about the interparticle interactions in a shaker, a simplified model for collision between particles of a granular material was proposed. In order to simulate the flow of surrounding gas, a formulation of the equations for fluid flow in a porous medium including particle forces was proposed. These equations are solved with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique using a subgrid-model originally proposed for compressible turbulent flows. For a pentagonal prism-shaped container under vertical vibrations, the results show that oscillon type structures were formed. Oscillons are highly localized particle-like excitations of the granular layer. This self-sustaining state was named by analogy with its closest large-scale analogy, the soliton, which was first documented by J.S. Russell in 1834. The results which has been reportedbyBordbar and Zamankhan(2005b)also show that slightly revised fluctuation-dissipation theorem might apply to shaken sand, which appears to be asystem far from equilibrium and could exhibit strong spatial and temporal variations in quantities such as density and local particle velocity. In this light, hydrodynamic type continuum equations were presented for describing the deformation and flow of dense gas-particle mixtures. The constitutive equation used for the stress tensor provides an effective viscosity with a liquid-like character at low shear rates and a gaseous-like behavior at high shear rates. The numerical solutions were obtained for the aforementioned hydrodynamic equations for predicting the flow dynamics ofdense mixture of gas and particles in vertical cylindrical containers. For a heptagonal prism shaped container under vertical vibrations, the model results were found to predict bubbling behavior analogous to those observed experimentally. This bubbling behavior may be explained by the unusual gas pressure distribution found in the bed. In addition, oscillon type structures were found to be formed using a vertically vibrated, pentagonal prism shaped container in agreement with computer simulation results. These observations suggest that the pressure distribution plays a key rolein deformation and flow of dense mixtures of gas and particles under vertical vibrations. The present models provide greater insight toward the explanation of poorly understood hydrodynamic phenomena in the field of granular flows and dense gas-particle mixtures. The models can be generalized to investigate the granular material-container wall interactions which would be an issue of high interests in the industrial applications. By following this approach ideal processing conditions and powder transport can be created in industrial systems.

Molecular Physics of Elementary Processes relevant to Hypersonics: atom-molecule, molecule-molecule and atom-surface processes.

In the present chapter some prototype gas and gas-surface processes occurring within the hypersonic flow layer surrounding spacecrafts at planetary entry are discussed. The discussion is based on microscopic dynamical calculations of the detailed cross sections and rate coefficients performed using classical mechanics treatments for atoms, molecules and surfaces. Such treatment allows the evaluation of the efficiency of thermal processes (both at equilibrium and nonequilibrium distributions) based on state-to-state and state specific calculations properly averaged over the population of the initial states. The dependence of the efficiency of the considered processes on the initial partitioning of energy among the various degrees of freedom is discussed.

(E)-2-Nonenal determination in brazilian beers using headspace solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatographic coupled mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS)

(E)-2-nonenal is considered an important off-flavor of beer, related to the flavor of beer staling. In this study, a new method for determination of (E)-2-nonenal in beer using headspace solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatographic coupled mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS) was developed and applied in Brazilian beer samples. The extractions were carried out in CAR-PDMS (carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane) fiber and the best results were found with 15 minutes of equilibrium and 90 minutes of extraction at 50 °C. The method was linear in the range from 0.02 to 4.0 56;g.L-1 with correlation coefficient of 0.9994. The limits of detection and quantification were 0.01 and 0.02 56;g.L-1, respectively. 96.5% of recovery and 4% precision (RSD) were obtained in the fortification of beer samples with 2.0 56;g.L-1 of (E)-2-nonenal. The developed method proved to be simple, efficient and highly sensitive to the determination of this analyte being easily applied in the quality control of the brewery. (E)-2-nonenal was found in all beer samples analyzed with levels between 0.17 and 0.42 56;g.L-1.

Sharing a River

A group of agents located along a river have quasi-linear preferences over water and money. We ask how the water should be allocated and what money transfers should be performed. We are interested in efficiency, stability (in the sense of the core), and fairness (in a sense to be defined). We first show that the cooperative game associated with our problem is convex : its core is therefore large and easily described. Next, we propose the following fairness requirement : no group of agents should enjoy a welfare higher than what it could achieve in the absence of the remaining agents. We prove that only one welfare vector in the core satisfies this condition : it is the marginal contribution vector corresponding to the ordering of the agents along the river. We discuss how it could be decentralized or implemented.

Explaining the Great Divergence: Medium and Message on the Eurasian Land Mass, 1700-1850

Between 1700 and 1850, per-capita income doubled in Europe while falling in the rest of Eurasia. Neither geography nor economic institutions can explain this sudden divergence. Here the consequences of differences in communications technology are examined. For the first time, there appeared in Europe a combination of a standardized medium (national vernaculars with a phonetic alphabet) and a non-standardized message (competing religious, political and scientific ideas). The result was an unprecedented fall in the cost of combining ideas and burst of productivity-raising innovation. Elsewhere, decreasing standardization of the medium and increasing standardization of the message blocked innovation.

Anonymous Single-Profile Welfarism

This note reexamines the single-profile approach to social-choice theory. If an alternative is interpreted as a social state of affairs or a history of the world, it can be argued that a multi-profile approach is inappropriate because the information profile is determined by the set of alternatives. However, single-profile approaches are criticized because of the limitations they impose on the possibility of formulating properties such as anonymity. We suggest an alternative definition of anonymity that applies in a single-profile setting and characterize anonymous single-profile welfarism under a richness assumption.