748 resultados para surrogate
Resumo:
This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.
Resumo:
Purpose:Over the past decade, corneal nerve morphology and corneal sensation threshold have been explored as potential surrogate markers for the evaluation of diabetic neuropathy. We present the baseline findings of a Longitudinal Assessment of Neuropathy in Diabetes using novel ophthalmic Markers (LANDMark). Methods:The LANDMark Study is a 5-year, two-site, natural history (observational) study of individuals with Type 1 diabetes stratified into those with (T1W) and without (T1WO) neuropathy according to the Toronto criteria, and control subjects. All study participants undergo detailed annual assessment of neuropathy including corneal nerve parameters measured using corneal confocal microscopy and corneal sensitivity measured using non-contact corneal esthesiometry. Results:396 eligible individuals (208 in Brisbane and 188 in Manchester) were assessed: 76 T1W, 166 T1WO and 154 controls. Corneal sensation threshold (mbars) was significantly higher in T1W (1.0 ± 1.1) than T1WO (0.7 ± 0.7) and controls (0.6 ± 0.4) (P=0.002); post-hoc analysis (PHA) revealed no difference between T1WO and controls (Tukey HSD, P=0.502). Corneal nerve fiber length (mm/mm2) (CNFL) was lower in T1W (13.8 ± 6.4) than T1WO (19.1 ± 5.8) and controls (23.2 ± 6.3) (P<0.001); PHA revealed CNFL to be lower in T1W than T1WO, and lower in both of these groups than controls (P<0.001). Corneal nerve branch density (branches/mm2) (CNBD) was significantly lower in T1W (40 ± 32) than T1WO (62 ± 37) and controls (83 ± 46) (P<0.001); PHA showed CNBD was lower in T1W than T1WO, and lower in both groups than controls (P<0.001). Alcohol and cigarette consumption did not differ between groups, although age, BMI, BP, waist circumference, HbA1c, albumin-creatinine ratio, and cholesterol were slightly greater in T1W than T1WO (p<0.05). Some site differences were observed. Conclusions:The LANDMark baseline findings confirm that corneal sensitivity and corneal nerve morphometry can detect differences in neuropathy status in individuals with Type 1 diabetes and healthy controls. Corneal nerve morphology is significantly abnormal even in diabetic patients ‘without neuropathy’ compared to control participants. Results of the longitudinal trial will assess the capability of these tests for monitoring change in these parameters over time as potential surrogate markers for neuropathy.
Resumo:
Portable, water filled road safety barriers are used to provide protection and reduce the potential hazard due to errant vehicles in areas where the road conditions change frequently (e.g. near road work sites). As part of an effort to reduce excessive working widths typical of these systems, a study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of introducing polymeric foam filled panels into the design. Surrogate impact tests of a design typical of such as barrier system were conducted utilising a pneumatically powered horizontal impact testing machine up to impact energies of 7.40 kJ. Results of these tests are utilised to examine the barrier behaviour, in addition to being used to validate a couple FE/SPH model of the barrier system. Once validated, the FE/SPH model it utilised as the basis for a parametric study into the efficacy and effects of the inclusion of polymeric foam filled panels on the performance of portable water filled road safety barriers. It was found that extruded polystyrene foam functioned well, with a greater thickness of the foam panel significantly reducing the impacting body velocity as the barrier began to translate.
Resumo:
This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.
Resumo:
Impaired driver alertness increases the likelihood of drivers’ making mistakes and reacting too late to unexpected events while driving. This is particularly a concern on monotonous roads, where a driver’s attention can decrease rapidly. While effective countermeasures do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behavior in real-time. The aim of this study is to predict drivers’ level of alertness through surrogate measures collected from in-vehicle sensors. Electroencephalographic activity is used as a reference to evaluate alertness. Based on a sample of 25 drivers, data was collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device. Various classification models were tested from linear regressions to Bayesians and data mining techniques. Results indicated that Neural Networks were the most efficient model in detecting lapses in alertness. Findings also show that reduced alertness can be predicted up to 5 minutes in advance with 90% accuracy, using surrogate measures such as time to line crossing, blink frequency and skin conductance level. Such a method could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring, in real-time, drivers' behavior on highways.
Resumo:
Buildings structures and surfaces are explicitly being used to grow plants, and these “urban plantings” are generally designed for aesthetic value. Urban plantings also have the potential to contribute significant “ecological values” by increasing urban habitat for animals such as arthropods and by increasing plant productivity. In this study, we evaluated how the provision of these additional ecological values is affected by plant species richness; the availability of essential resources for plants, such as water, light, space; and soil characteristics. We sampled 33 plantings located on the exterior of three buildings in the urban center of Brisbane, Australia (subtropical climatic region) over 2, 6 week sampling periods characterized by different temperature and rainfall conditions. Plant cover was estimated as a surrogate for productivity as destructive sampling of biomass was not possible. We measured weekly light levels (photosynthetically active radiation), plant CO2 assimilation, soil CO2 efflux, and arthropod diversity. Differences in plant cover were best explained by a three-way interaction of plant species richness, management water regime and sampling period. As the richness of plant species increased in a planter, productivity and total arthropod richness also increased significantly—likely due to greater habitat heterogeneity and quality. Overall we found urban plantings can provide additional ecological values if essential resources are maintained within a planter such as water, light and soil temperature. Diverse urban plantings that are managed with these principles in mind can contribute to the attraction of diverse arthropod communities, and lead to increased plant productivity within a dense urban context.
Resumo:
This study systematically reviews the published literature regarding inappropriate prescribing in frail individuals aged at least 65 years. Twenty-five of 466 identified studies met the inclusion criteria. All papers measured some surrogate indicators of frailty, such as performance-based tests, cognitive function and functional dependency. Beers criteria were used in 20 studies (74%) to evaluate inappropriate medication use and 36% (9/25) studies used more than one criterion. The prevalence of inappropriate medications ranged widely from 11 to 92%. Only a few studies reported the relationship between potentially inappropriate medication use and surrogate measures of frailty. These diverse findings indicate the need for a standardized measure for assessing appropriateness of medication in frail older individuals. Prescribing tools should address both medication and patient-related factors such as life expectancy and functional status to minimize inappropriate prescribing in frail individuals.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Head-of-bed elevation (HOBE) has been shown to assist in reducing respiratory complications associated with mechanical ventilation; however, there is minimal research describing changes in end-expiratory lung volume. This study aims to investigate changes in end-expiratory lung volume in a supine position and 2 levels of HOBE. METHODS: Twenty postoperative cardiac surgery subjects were examined using electrical impedance tomography. End-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) was recorded as a surrogate measurement of end-expiratory lung volume in a supine position and at 20° and then 30°. RESULTS: Significant increases in end-expiratory lung volume were seen at both 20° and 30° HOBE in all lung regions, except the anterior, with the largest changes from baseline (supine) seen at 30°. From baseline to 30° HOBE, global EELI increased by 1,327 impedance units (95% CI 1,080–1,573, P < .001). EELI increased by 1,007 units (95% CI 880–1,134, P < .001) in the left lung region and by 320 impedance units (95% CI 188–451, P < .001) in the right lung. Posterior increases of 1,544 impedance units (95% CI 1,405–1,682, P < .001) were also seen. EELI decreased anteriorly, with the largest decreases occurring at 30° (−335 impedance units, 95% CI −486 to −183, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: HOBE significantly increases global and regional end-expiratory lung volume; therefore, unless contraindicated, all mechanically ventilated patients should be positioned with HOBE.
Resumo:
While the philosophical motivation behind Civil Infrastructure Management Systems is to achieve optimal level of service at a minimum cost, the allocation of scarce resources among competing alternatives is still a matter of debate. It appears to be widely accepted that results from tradeoff analysis can be measured by the degree of accomplishment of the objectives. Road management systems not only deal with different asset types but also with conflicting objectives. This paper presents a case study of lifecycle optimization with tradeoff analysis for a road corridor in New Brunswick. Objectives of the study included condition of bridge and roads and road safety. A road safety index was created based on potential for improvement. Road condition was based on roughness, rutting and cracking. Initial results show lack of sustainability in bridge performance. Therefore, bridges where broken by components: deck, superstructure and substructure. Visual inspections, in addition to construction age of each bridge, were combined to generate a surrogate apparent age. Two life cycle analysis were conducted; one aimed to minimize overall cost while achieving sustainable results and another one purely for optimization. -used to identify required levels of budget. Such analyses were used to identify the minimum required budget and to demonstrate that with the same amount of money it was possible to achieve better levels of performance. Dominance and performance driven criteria were combined to identify and select an optimal result. It was found that achievement of optimally sustained results is conditioned by the availability of treatments for all asset classes at across their life spans. For the case study a disaggregated bridge condition index was introduced to the original algorithm to attempt to achieve sustainability in all bridges components, however lack of early stage treatments for substructures produce declining trends for such a component.
Resumo:
Safety is one of the major world health issues, and is even more acute for “vulnerable” road users, pedestrians and cyclists. At the same time, public authorities are promoting the active modes of transportation that involve these very users for their health benefits. It is therefore important to understand the factors and designs that provide the best safety for vulnerable road users and encourage more people to use these modes. Qualitative and quantitative shortcomings of collisions make it necessary to use surrogate measures of safety in studying these modes. Some interactions without a collision such as conflicts can be good surrogates of collisions as they are more frequent and less costly. To overcome subjectivity and reliability challenges, automatic conflict analysis using video cameras and deriving users’ trajectories is a solution to overcome shortcomings of manual conflict analysis. The goal of this paper is to identify and characterize various interactions between cyclists and pedestrians at bus stops along bike paths using a fully automated process. Three conflict severity indicators are calculated and adapted to the situation of interest to capture those interactions. A microscopic analysis of users’ behavior is proposed to explain interactions more precisely. Eventually, the study aims to show the capability of automatically collecting and analyzing data for pedestrian-cyclist interactions at bus stops along segregated bike paths in order to better understand the actual and perceived risks of these facilities.
Resumo:
Reported homocysteine (HCY) concentrations in human serum show poor concordance amongst laboratories due to endogenous HCY in the matrices used for assay calibrators and QCs. Hence, we have developed a fully validated LC–MS/MS method for measurement of HCY concentrations in human serum samples that addresses this issue by minimising matrix effects. We used small volumes (20 μL) of 2% Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA) as surrogate matrix for making calibrators and QCs with concentrations adjusted for the endogenous HCY concentration in the surrogate matrix using the method of standard additions. To aliquots (20 μL) of human serum samples, calibrators or QCs, were added HCY-d4 (internal standard) and tris-(2-carboxyethyl) phosphine hydrochloride (TCEP) as reducing agent. After protein precipitation, diluted supernatants were injected into the LC–MS/MS. Calibration curves were linear; QCs were accurate (5.6% deviation from nominal), precise (CV% ≤ 9.6%), stable for four freeze–thaw cycles, and when stored at room temperature for 5 h or at −80 °C (27 days). Recoveries from QCs in surrogate matrix or pooled human serum were 91.9 and 95.9%, respectively. There was no matrix effect using 6 different individual serum samples including one that was haemolysed. Our LC–MS/MS method has satisfied all of the validation criteria of the 2012 EMA guideline.
Resumo:
As fossil fuel prices increase and environmental concerns gain prominence, the development of alternative fuels from biomass has become more important. Biodiesel produced from microalgae is becoming an attractive alternative to share the role of petroleum. Currently it appears that the production of microalgal biodiesel is not economically viable in current environment because it costs more than conventional fuels. Therefore, a new concept is introduced in this article as an option to reduce the total production cost of microalgal biodiesel. The integration of biodiesel production system with methane production via anaerobic digestion is proved in improving the economics and sustainability of overall biodiesel stages. Anaerobic digestion of microalgae produces methane and further be converted to generate electricity. The generated electricity can surrogate the consumption of energy that require in microalgal cultivation, dewatering, extraction and transesterification process. From theoretical calculations, the electricity generated from methane is able to power all of the biodiesel production stages and will substantially reduce the cost of biodiesel production (33% reduction). The carbon emissions of biodiesel production systems are also reduced by approximately 75% when utilizing biogas electricity compared to when the electricity is otherwise purchased from the Victorian grid. The overall findings from this study indicate that the approach of digesting microalgal waste to produce biogas will make the production of biodiesel from algae more viable by reducing the overall cost of production per unit of biodiesel and hence enable biodiesel to be more competitive with existing fuels.
Resumo:
Objective Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) often requires technicians to wear multiple protective garments in challenging environmental conditions. The accumulative effect of increased metabolic cost coupled with decreased heat dissipation associated with these garments predisposes technicians to high levels of physiological strain. It has been proposed that a perceptual strain index (PeSI) using subjective ratings of thermal sensation and perceived exertion as surrogate measures of core body temperature and heart rate, may provide an accurate estimation of physiological strain. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if the PeSI could estimate the physiological strain index (PSI) across a range of metabolic workloads and environments while wearing heavy EOD and chemical protective clothing. Methods Eleven healthy males wore an EOD and chemical protective ensemble while walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km·h− 1 at 1% grade in environmental conditions equivalent to wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 21, 30 and 37 °C. WBGT conditions were randomly presented and a maximum of three randomised treadmill walking trials were completed in a single testing day. Trials were ceased at a maximum of 60-min or until the attainment of termination criteria. A Pearson's correlation coefficient, mixed linear model, absolute agreement and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the relationship between the PeSI and PSI. Results A significant moderate relationship between the PeSI and the PSI was observed [r = 0.77; p < 0.001; mean difference = 0.8 ± 1.1 a.u. (modified 95% limits of agreement − 1.3 to 3.0)]. The ROC curves indicated that the PeSI had a good predictive power when used with two, single-threshold cut-offs to differentiate between low and high levels of physiological strain (area under curve: PSI three cut-off = 0.936 and seven cut-off = 0.841). Conclusions These findings support the use of the PeSI for monitoring physiological strain while wearing EOD and chemical protective clothing. However, future research is needed to confirm the validity of the PeSI for active EOD technicians operating in the field.
Resumo:
Purpose The purpose of this research is to examine the concept of “potential quality” – that is, a company's tangible search qualities (such as the physical servicescape and virtual servicescape) – within the context of the real‐estate industry in the USA. Design/methodology/approach This qualitative study collects data by conducting personal in‐depth interviews with 34 respondents who had been recent buyers or renters of property. The data are then coded and themed to identify quality dimensions relevant to this industry. Findings The results indicate that a buyer's perception of the overall service quality of real‐estate service consists of two components: the interaction with a realtor (process quality); and the virtual servicescape, especially the firm's website design and content (potential quality). The study concludes that existing scales (such as SERVQUAL and RESERV) fail to capture the tangible component of service quality sufficiently in the real‐estate industry. Research limitations/implications The study uses data from only one industry (real estate) and from only one demographic segment (professionals in higher education). Practical implications Service providers of intangible, high‐contact services must appreciate the importance of the virtual servicescape as a surrogate quality indicator that can help to reduce information asymmetries and consumers' uncertainty with regard to initiating a business relationship. Real estate firms need to pay attention to the training of agents and the design and content of their e‐service systems. Originality/value This study integrates potential quality, process quality, and outcome quality in a comprehensive proposed model. In particular, the study identifies “potential quality” as a combination of the attributes of the virtual service environment and the physical service environment.
Resumo:
Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer with 650,000 new cases p/a worldwide. HNSCC causes high morbidity with a 5-year survival rate of less than 60%, which has not improved due to the lack of early detection (Bozec et al. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol. 2013;270: 2745–9). Metastatic disease remains one of the leading causes of death in HNSCC patients. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of literature over the past 5 years on the detection of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) in HNSCC; CTC biology and future perspectives. CTCs are a hallmark of invasive cancer cells and key to metastasis. CTCs can be used as surrogate markers of overall survival and progression-free survival. CTCs are currently used as prognostic factors for breast, prostate and colorectal cancers using the CellSearch® system. CTCs have been detected in HNSCC, however, these numbers depend on the technique applied, time of blood collection and the clinical stage of the patient. The impact of CTCs in HNSCC is not well understood, and thus, not in routine clinical practice. Validated detection technologies that are able to capture CTCs undergoing epithelial–mesenchymal transition are needed. This will aid in the capture of heterogeneous CTCs, which can be compiled as new targets for the current food and drug administration-cleared CellSearch® system. Recent studies on CTCs in HNSCC with the CellSearch® have shown variable data. Therefore, there is an immediate need for large clinical trials encompassing a suite of biomarkers capturing CTCs in HNSCC, before CTCs can be used as prognostic markers in HNSCC patient management.