165 resultados para pessimistic


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How should educators respond to the whole phenomenon of ‘digital learning’? This question has been in vogue for the past twenty years or more and there is a need for a regular renewal of this question as societies change. This article will draw on some post-structuralist writing, particularly Deleuze and Guattari, to try to understand better the divide between the optimistic account and the pessimistic account of the effect of ICT on teaching and learning. It argues in particular 1) that ICT in its current form signals a paradigm shift in education—but this thesis is difficult either to prove or disprove; 2) that Deleuze and Guattari’s rhizome provides us with a theoretical tool for understanding the pedagogical nature of this shift; 3) that this change is wider than literacy itself and announces posthuman elements in the socio-cultural environment of learning.

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Calcification in many invertebrate species is predicted to decline due to ocean acidification. The potential effects of elevated CO2 and reduced carbonate saturation state on other species, such as fish, are less well understood. Fish otoliths (earbones) are composed of aragonite, and thus, might be susceptible to either the reduced availability of carbonate ions in seawater at low pH, or to changes in extracellular concentrations of bicarbonate and carbonate ions caused by acid-base regulation in fish exposed to high pCO2. We reared larvae of the clownfish Amphiprion percula from hatching to settlement at three pHNBS and pCO2 levels (control: ~pH 8.15 and 404 µatm CO2; intermediate: pH 7.8 and 1050 µatm CO2; extreme: pH 7.6 and 1721 µatm CO2) to test the possible effects of ocean acidification on otolith development. There was no effect of the intermediate treatment (pH 7.8 and 1050 µatm CO2) on otolith size, shape, symmetry between left and right otoliths, or otolith elemental chemistry, compared with controls. However, in the more extreme treatment (pH 7.6 and 1721 µatm CO2) otolith area and maximum length were larger than controls, although no other traits were significantly affected. Our results support the hypothesis that pH regulation in the otolith endolymph can lead to increased precipitation of CaCO3 in otoliths of larval fish exposed to elevated CO2, as proposed by an earlier study, however, our results also show that sensitivity varies considerably among species. Importantly, our results suggest that otolith development in clownfishes is robust to even the more pessimistic changes in ocean chemistry predicted to occur by 2100.

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Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Images about Africa in the northern hemisphere are generally negative and pessimistic. In spite of instant global communication, why have these images persisted till date? This contribution shall revisit these perceptions and the images embodying them to unearth the motivations and rationale. The central argument, based on some narratives and experiences, is that ignorance feeds these images and stereotypes. Furthermore, positionality of non-African experts and some groups of African scholars and activists contribute to this culture of ignorance and paternalism. The contribution shall end with an ethical evaluation of the persistence of the images and the extent of moral responsibility of the authors and carriers of the racist stereotypes embedded in the images. (DIPF/Orig.)

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Erst auf den zweiten Blick entpuppt sich die Unwissenheit als eine pädagogische Kategorie. Sowohl phylogenetisch als auch ontogenetisch beginnt der Mensch unwissend. Eine Pädagogik, die sich auf das Wissen kapriziert, hat diesen historischen und systematischen Anfang jeder Erziehung in der Differenz von Unwissenheit und Wissen vergessen. Im wertenden Umgang mit dieser Differenz wird Erziehung entweder kulturpessimistisch oder kulturoptimistisch begriffen und gestaltet. Bildung aber, das wußte schon Sokrates, ist die Erinnerung des Wissens an seine eigene Unwissenheit. Ein solches Bildungsverständriis erweist sich als hoch anschlußfähig an unsere gegenwärtige krisenhafte Entwicklung. (DIPF/Orig.)

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O poema de Semónides de Amorgos sobre as mulheres (Fr. 7 West) é o mais extenso fragmento preservado da poesia iâmbica grega da época arcaica. Nele o poeta apresenta uma reflexão pessimista de cariz misógino sobre o carácter feminino, numa narrativa original que cataloga dez tipos de mulher, oito baseadas em modelos animais (a porca, a raposa, a cadela, a burra, a doninha, a égua, a macaca e a abelha) e dois em elementos da natureza (a terra e o mar). Pretende-se demonstrar, neste estudo, que essa caracterização tipológica era inovadora e respondia a uma dupla finalidade: satírica e humorística. Uma vez que o poema se destinaria a um contexto simpótico, um espaço tipicamente masculino, a mulher e a sua natureza constituiriam uma temática que levaria o homem a reflectir, de um modo simultaneamente sério e divertido, sobre a sua própria condição.

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Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

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The research is orientated to the actual issues of strategic management of industrial enterprises. The theoretical aspects of strategic management are generalized, its role is certain in organization development, methods and processes of strategic management are investigational. In this context the main objective of study is based on the strategic analysis of PJSC «Elektrotermometriya», formation ways to improve the strategic management of the company with regard to the readiness of the company to strategic changes and conducting of developments and recommendations for improvement activity of the enterprise. To answer to the main objective it was conducted the strategic analysis of activity of PJSC «Elektrotermometriya». The results proved the basic strategy to achieve the strategic goal of PJSC «Elektrotermometriya». According to the life cycle, and based on the current conditions of its functioning, is appropriate to use the strategy of gradual growth. Forecast implementing strategies defined by the optimistic, probable and pessimistic forecasts. According to the pessimistic forecast the company should use a strategy of stabilization, while to the optimistic and the most likely scenario - moderate growth strategy. Thus to achieve the main strategic goals according to each scenario PJSC «Elektrotermometriya» should use set of functional strategies and define the business strategy.

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Mestrado em Finanças

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Dissertação de mest. em Didáctica das Línguas e Literaturas Modernas - especialização em Português, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Univ. do Algarve, 2003

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Em outubro de 2012, a Direção de Análise e Gestão da Informação (DAGI), em colaboração com a Superintendência do Pessoal (SP) e Direção do Pessoal (DP), iniciou o desenvolvimento de um protótipo de simulador, que designou por “Protótipo Fluxo de Carreiras”. Este simulador permite parametrizar diversos fatores que condicionam o desenvolvimento de carreira dos militares e que estão associados a mecanismos reguladores de carreira que se encontram vertidos no Estatuto dos Militares das Forças Armadas (EMFAR). Para cada ano do período de simulação, a situação de cada militar de uma determinada classe é atualizada e são verificadas as condições para a ocorrência de promoções e passagens à reserva. O evento “passagem à reserva” de um militar pode ter origem em regras determinísticas (exemplo: militar atinge a idade limite de passagem à reserva no seu posto) ou em condições estocásticas ou aleatórias (exemplos: óbito, exclusão da promoção, requerer voluntariamente a passagem à reserva, etc.). Estas últimas situações resultam do fenómeno de erosão dos quadros que pode ser observado a partir do histórico de saídas desta natureza. Até 2015, o simulador de carreiras não comtemplava um modelo de erosão, pelo que os resultados disponibilizados (indicadores de fluxo de carreira) dependiam exclusivamente de mecanismos determinísticos. Desta forma estes resultados apresentam uma natureza “pessimista” e com fraca aderência à realidade. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo construir um modelo descritivo da erosãodos militares oficiais da Marinha, tendo por base dados de saídas (excetuando saídas relacionadas com regras determinísticas previstas no EMFAR) no período de 2008 a2015. Para cada classe da categoria de oficiais é estimada uma função de probabilidadecondicional ao tempo de serviço efetivo ou à idade do militar que representa apropensão para um militar sair do quadro antes de ser verificada uma condição determinística. Estas funções foram integradas no simulador de carreiras para que os resultados possam reproduzir a componente de erosão. Usando o método de simulação de Monte Carlo é possível obter a distribuição dos indicadores de fluxo de carreira. Porfim, objetiva-se realizar uma comparação entre uma simulação com fatores estocásticos (com erosão) e uma simulação considerando apenas fatores determinísticos (semerosão). Este trabalho visa refletir o panorama atual da erosão de pessoal na Marinha, permitindo assim melhorar a qualidade das previsões de efetivos ao longo do tempo bem como aumentar a capacidade de intervenção e resposta na identificação e correção antecipada de possíveis estruturações.

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Rather often we have to confront with the pessimistic views on the future of the family business. Contrary to these prognosis, the FB is not only present but also improving its position in the global economy and playing a key role in the European economy too. They represent 60 % of employment and more than 60 million jobs in the private sector. Among many internal challenges of FB in the five years’ time, the importance of the ‘company succession’ is increasing together with the renewing technology and ‘attracting the right sills/ talents’ (Global Family Survey, 2015). This article is focusing on the transfer of socio-economic wealth (SEW) as a key intangible asset within the intergenerational changes in the FB. The paper outlines the various concepts (narrow vs. broad) of the SEW and special attention is paid to the risk prone [taken] and risk adverse entrepreneurial attitudes. In this relation, the authors made distinction between the ‘opportunity’ and ‘necessity entrepreneurs’. Using empirical experiences based on multi-site company case studies in the three INSIST project countries, the various sub-sections are focusing on the transfer of the following key components of the SEW to the next generation: trust-based social-system, generic human values (i.e. openness, mutual respect, correctness, reliability, responsibility etc.) and ‘practice based – embedded collective knowledge’. Key lesson of this analysis is the following: transferring physical assets in the succession process seems to us less important than the transfer of the intangible one embedded in the company’s culture community. Further systematic national and international investigations – combining quantitative and qualitative research tools – are necessary to acquire more accurate picture on the impacts of transferring both intangible and tangible assets in the succession process in the FB.

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En este trabajo se estima el efecto que tienen distintos choques a los hogares sobre el logro académico de los niños. Mediante un modelo de regresión lineal, se encuentra un efecto adverso de la presencia de choques sobre el puntaje de la prueba Saber 11. Además, los resultados sugieren que el trabajo infantil es un mecanismo por el cual los choques afectan negativamente la acumulación de capital humano. Al explorar efectos heterogéneos por sexo y edad, las estimaciones indican que el efecto de los choques es guiado por los hombres y los adolescentes mayores a 14 años.

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ResumenApoyándose en entrevistas a grandes productores privados del sector agroexportador nicaragüense y fuentes bibliográficas, el investigador estudió las relaciones entre las actitudes los empresarios, la situación política y el manejo oficial de la economía de ese país. En sus conclusiones enfatiza en los problemas de la política económica y en las expectativas pesimistas de miembros de la burguesía agraria acerca del futuro del sector privado durante el régimen sandinista. Establece asimismo un contraste con lo que denomina “solución Zimbabwe- costarricense” a la cuestión económica y social agraria.AbstractThrough interviews with large agroexport producers plus bibliographic information, the researcher explores relations among attitudes of private sector representatives, the political situation and management of the economy by the Nicaraguan government. In his conclusions, he stresses problems of economic policy and pessimistic expectations by memberse of the agrarian bourgeoisie regarding the future of the private sector under the Sandinista regimen. He also compares this case with the “Zimbabwe- Costa Rica solution” to rural economic and social issues.