Testing the optimality of aggregate consumption decisions: is there rule-of-thumb behavior?

Consumption is an important macroeconomic aggregate, being about 70% of GNP. Finding sub-optimal behavior in consumption decisions casts a serious doubt on whether optimizing behavior is applicable on an economy-wide scale, which, in turn, challenge whether it is applicable at all. This paper has several contributions to the literature on consumption optimality. First, we provide a new result on the basic rule-of-thumb regression, showing that it is observational equivalent to the one obtained in a well known optimizing real-business-cycle model. Second, for rule-of-thumb tests based on the Asset-Pricing Equation, we show that the omission of the higher-order term in the log-linear approximation yields inconsistent estimates when lagged observables are used as instruments. However, these are exactly the instruments that have been traditionally used in this literature. Third, we show that nonlinear estimation of a system of N Asset-Pricing Equations can be done efficiently even if the number of asset returns (N) is high vis-a-vis the number of time-series observations (T). We argue that efficiency can be restored by aggregating returns into a single measure that fully captures intertemporal substitution. Indeed, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. This forms the basis of a new test of rule-of-thumb behavior, which can be viewed as testing for the importance of rule-of-thumb consumers when the optimizing agent holds an equally-weighted portfolio or a weighted portfolio of traded assets. Using our setup, we find no signs of either rule-of-thumb behavior for U.S. consumers or of habit-formation in consumption decisions in econometric tests. Indeed, we show that the simple representative agent model with a CRRA utility is able to explain the time series data on consumption and aggregate returns. There, the intertemporal discount factor is significant and ranges from 0.956 to 0.969 while the relative risk-aversion coefficient is precisely estimated ranging from 0.829 to 1.126. There is no evidence of rejection in over-identifying-restriction tests.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Dynamic hedging with stocastic differential utility

In this paper we study the dynamic hedging problem using three different utility specifications: stochastic differential utility, terminal wealth utility, and we propose a particular utility transformation connecting both previous approaches. In all cases, we assume Markovian prices. Stochastic differential utility, SDU, impacts the pure hedging demand ambiguously, but decreases the pure speculative demand, because risk aversion increases. We also show that consumption decision is, in some sense, independent of hedging decision. With terminal wealth utility, we derive a general and compact hedging formula, which nests as special all cases studied in Duffie and Jackson (1990). We then show how to obtain their formulas. With the third approach we find a compact formula for hedging, which makes the second-type utility framework a particular case, and show that the pure hedging demand is not impacted by this specification. In addition, with CRRA- and CARA-type utilities, the risk aversion increases and, consequently the pure speculative demand decreases. If futures price are martingales, then the transformation plays no role in determining the hedging allocation. We also derive the relevant Bellman equation for each case, using semigroup techniques.

Computer simulation of the stochastic transport equation

Trabalho apresentado no 37th Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications - July 28 - August 01, 2014 -Universidad de Buenos Aires

A Higher order and stable method for the numerical integration of Random Differential Equations

Trabalho apresentado no Congresso Nacional de Matemática Aplicada à Indústria, 18 a 21 de novembro de 2014, Caldas Novas - Goiás

Stability of neutral functional differential equations in terms of measures

In this paper we investigate the relationships between different concepts of stability in measure for the solutions of an autonomous or periodic neutral functional differential equation.

On retarded differential equations with impulses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the Generalized Mittag-Leffler Function and its Application in a Fractional Telegraph Equation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Decomposition and Noise Removal Method Combining Diffusion Equation and Wave Atoms for Textured Images

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Discussion on the limit cycles of the Lev Ginzburg equation by M. Bellamy and R.E. Mickens, Journal of Sound and Vibration 308 (2007) 337-342

The authors M. Bellamy and R.E. Mickens in the article "Hopf bifurcation analysis of the Lev Ginzburg equation" published in Journal of Sound and Vibration 308 (2007) 337-342, claimed that this differential equation in the plane can exhibit a limit cycle. Here we prove that the Lev Ginzburg differential equation has no limit cycles. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global dynamics of stationary solutions of the extended Fisher-Kolmogorov equation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Lie symmetry analysis and reductions of a two-dimensional integrable generalization of the Camassa-Holm equation

In this Letter we investigate Lie symmetries of a (2 + 1)-dimensional integrable generalization of the Camassa-Holm (CH) equation. Through the similarity reductions we obtain four different (1 + 1)-dimensional systems of partial differential equations in which one of them turns out to be a (1 + 1)-dimensional CH equation. We establish their integrability by providing the Lax pair for all of them. Further, we present a brief analysis for some types of particular solutions which include the cuspon, peakon and soliton solutions for the two-dimensional generalization of the CH equation. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Symmetry analysis of an integrable reaction-diffusion equation

In this paper, we investigate the invariance and integrability properties of an integrable two-component reaction-diffusion equation. We perform Painleve analysis for both the reaction-diffusion equation modelled by a coupled nonlinear partial differential equations and its general similarity reduced ordinary differential equation and confirm its integrability. Further, we perform Lie symmetry analysis for this model. Interestingly our investigations reveals a rich variety of particular solutions, which have not been reported in the literature, for this model. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fortran programs for the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation in a fully anisotropic trap

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

C programs for solving the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation in a fully anisotropic trap

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)