Evidence on the relationship between incentives and exogenous risk

Theoretical models on moral hazard provide competing predictions on the incentive-risk relationship. These predictions are derived under the assumptions of homogeneous agents and exogenous risk. However, the existing empirical evidence does not account for risk-aversion heterogeneity and risk endogeneity. This paper uses a well-built database on tenancy contracts to address these issues. Detailed information on cropping activities is used to measure the exogenous risk. Risk-aversion heterogeneity and other self-selection problems are addressed through a portfolio schedule and a subsample of farmers who simultaneously own and sharecrop different farms. This controlled exercise finds a direct relation between incentives and exogenous risk.

The 844ins68 cystathionine beta-synthase and C677T MTHFR gene polymorphism and the vaso-occlusive event risk in sickle cell disease

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Longer immediate recovery time after anesthesia increases risk of respiratory complications after laparotomy for bariatric surgery: a randomized clinical trial and a cohort study

We compared the effects of two anesthesia protocols in both immediate recovery time (IRT) and postoperative respiratory complications (PRCs) after laparotomy for bariatric surgery, and we determined the association between the longer IRT and the increase of PRC incidence. We conducted the study in two stages: (i) in a randomized controlled trial (RCT), patients received either intervention (sevoflurane-remifentanil-rocuronium-ropivacaine) or control protocol (isoflurane-sufentanil-atracurium-levobupivacaine). All patients received general anesthesia plus continuous epidural anesthesia and analgesia. Treatment was masked for all, except the provider anesthesiologist. We defined IRT as time since anesthetics discontinuation until tracheal extubation. Primary outcomes were IRT and PRCs incidence within 15 days after surgery. We also analyzed post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) and hospital length of stays; (ii) after the end of the RCT, we used the available data in an extension cohort study to investigate IRT > 20 min as exposure factor for PRCs. Control protocol (n = 152) resulted in longer IRT (30.4 ± 7.9 vs 18.2 ± 9.6 min; p < 0.0001), higher incidence of PRCs (6.58 vs 2.5 %; p = 0.048), and longer PACU and hospital stays than intervention protocol (n = 200); PRC relative risk (RR) = 2.6. Patients with IRT > 20 min (n = 190) presented higher incidence of PRCs (7.37 vs 0.62 %; p < 0.0001); RR = 12.06. Intervention protocol, with short-acting anesthetics, was more beneficial and safe compared to control protocol, with long-acting drugs, regarding the reduction of IRT, PRCs, and PACU and hospital stays for laparotomy in bariatric patients. We identified a 4.5-fold increase in the relative risk of PRCs when morbid obese patients are exposed to an IRT > 20 min.

Combined oral contraceptives and increasing cardiovascular risk: thromboembolism and hypertension

Background: Hormonal contraceptive pills are the most used reversible method for familiar planning in Brazil. The combined pill, with synthetic analogs of estrogen and progestin, is employed by 25% of Brazilian female population. Its use provokes an increase of blood pressure levels, takes patient to a hipercoagulability state and predisposes her to thromboembolic events. Purposes: We aimed to describe mechanisms of hypercoagulability promoted by oral combined contraceptives, to analyze the relative risk of cardiovascular events within users and to list the most common circulatory pathologies in these patients. Methods: Three virtual medical databases were surveyed (Pubmed/Medline, BVS/LILACS and Scielo). Twelve studies were selected: clinical trials, case reports and articles of indexed medical periodic originally published in Portuguese and English about synthetic hormones, oral contraception, coagulation disorders and cardiovascular morbimortality. Results: Synthetic estrogen promotes an increase of some clotting factors' levels (VII, VIII, IX, X, XII, XIII and fibrinogen), such as a reduction of their inhibitors (S protein and antithrombin). Because of this, etinilestradiol is the component most related to venous thrombosis and ischemic diseases of brain and heart. It also improves the releasing of hepatic angiotensinogen, taking to a increase of blood pressure levels. Conclusions: The prescription of oral combined contraceptives needs criteria, notably due to adverse effects of etinilestradiol. It is recommended to avoid the administration of these drugs for patients elder than 35 year-old or with risk factors. For these patients, the use of progestagen-only pills seems to be safer.

Multiple LRRK2 variants modulate risk of Parkinson disease: a Chinese multicenter study

We and others found two polymorphic LRRK2 (leucine-rich repeat kinase 2) variants (rs34778348:G>A; p.G2385R and rs33949390:G>C; p.R1628P) associated with Parkinson disease (PD) among Chinese patients, but the common worldwide rs34637584:G>A; p.G2019S mutation, was absent. Focusing exclusively on Han Chinese, we first sequenced the coding regions in young onset and familial PD patients and identified 59 variants. We then examined these variants in 250 patients and 250 control subjects. Among the 17 polymorphic variants, five demonstrated different frequency in cases versus controls and were considered in a larger sample of 1,363 patients and 1,251 control subjects. The relative risk of an individual with both p.G2385R and p.R1628P is about 1.9, and this is reduced to 1.5-1.6 if the individual also carries rs7133914:G>C; p.R1398H or rs7308720:C>A: p.N551K. The risk of a carrier with p.R1628P is largely negated if the individual also carries p.R1398H or p.N551K. In dopaminergic neuronal lines, p.R1398H had significantly lower kinase activity, whereas p.G2385R and p.R1628P showed higher kinase activity than wild type. We provided the first evidence that multiple LRRK2 variants exert an individual effect and together modulate the risk of PD among Chinese.

Risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings: a systematic review

Objective: To review the literature to identify and synthesize the evidence on risk factors for patient falls in geriatric rehabilitation hospital settings. Data sources: Eligible studies were systematically searched on 16 databases from inception to December 2010. Review methods: The search strategies used a combination of terms for rehabilitation hospital patients, falls, risk factors and older adults. Cross-sectional, cohort, case-control studies and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published in English that investigated risks for falls among patients ≥65 years of age in rehabilitation hospital settings were included. Studies that investigated fall risk assessment tools, but did not investigate risk factors themselves or did not report a measure of risk (e.g. odds ratio, relative risk) were excluded. Results: A total of 2,824 references were identified; only eight articles concerning six studies met the inclusion criteria. In these, 1,924 geriatric rehabilitation patients were followed. The average age of the patients ranged from 77 to 83 years, the percentage of women ranged from 56% to 81%, and the percentage of fallers ranged from 15% to 54%. Two were case-control studies, two were RCTs and four were prospective cohort studies. Several intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for falls were identified. Conclusion: Carpet flooring, vertigo, being an amputee, confusion, cognitive impairment, stroke, sleep disturbance, anticonvulsants, tranquilizers and antihypertensive medications, age between 71 and 80, previous falls, and need for transfer assistance are risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings.

Fasting plasma glucose predicts survival and angiographic progression in high-risk postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: We studied the association of baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels with survival and coronary artery disease (CAD) progression among postmenopausal women without unstable angina. METHODS: Women were recruited from seven centers in the Women's Angiographic Vitamin and Estrogen Trial (WAVE) (n = 423). Event follow-up was available for 400 women (65.1 +/- 8.5 years, 66% white, 92% hypertensive, 19% smokers, 67% hypercholesterolemic). Thirty-eight percent of the women had diabetes or FPG > 125 mg/dL, and 21% had a fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL. Follow-up angiography was performed in 304 women. Cox regression was used to model survival from a composite outcome of death or myocardial infarction (D/MI, 26 events; median follow-up 2.4 years). Angiographic progression was analyzed quantitatively using linear regression accounting for baseline minimum lumen diameter (MLD), follow-up time, and intrasubject correlations using generalized estimating equations. Regression analyses were adjusted for follow-up time, baseline age, treatment assignment, and Framingham risk (excluding diabetes). RESULTS: Women with impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus (IFG/DM) had a relative risk (RR) of D/MI of 4.2 ( p = 0.009). In all women, each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with an 11% increase ( p < 0.001) in the hazard of D/MI. Each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with a 6.8 mum decrease in MLD over the follow-up period ( p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Higher FPG is associated with increased risk of D/MI and greater narrowing of the coronary lumen in women with CAD. Aggressive monitoring of glucose levels may be beneficial for secondary CAD prevention.

Heart rate is a prognostic risk factor for myocardial infarction: a post hoc analysis in the PERFORM (Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack) study population

BACKGROUND Elevated resting heart rate is known to be detrimental to morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease, though its effect in patients with ischemic stroke is unclear. We analyzed the effect of baseline resting heart rate on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a recent noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event participating in PERFORM. METHODS We compared fatal or nonfatal MI using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for PERFORM patients with baseline heart rate <70 bpm (n=8178) or ≥70 bpm (n=10,802). In addition, heart rate was analyzed as a continuous variable. Other cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes were also explored. RESULTS Heart rate ≥70 bpm was associated with increased relative risk for fatal or nonfatal MI (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, P=0.029). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there was an increase in relative risk for fatal and nonfatal MI (11.3%, P=0.0002). Heart rate ≥70 bpm was also associated with increased relative risk for a composite of fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death) (P<0001); vascular death (P<0001); all-cause mortality (P<0001); and fatal or nonfatal stroke (P=0.04). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there were increases in relative risk for fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (4.7%, P<0.0001), vascular death (11.0%, P<0.0001), all-cause mortality (8.0%, P<0.0001), and fatal and nonfatal stroke (2.4%, P=0.057). CONCLUSION Elevated heart rate ≥70 bpm places patients with a noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event at increased risk for MI.

Analysis of caesarean section rates over time in a single Swiss centre using a ten-group classification system.

OBJECTIVE Caesarean section (CS) rates have risen over the past two decades. The aim of this observational study was to identify time-dependent variations in CS and vaginal delivery rates over a period of 11 years. METHOD All deliveries (13,701 deliveries during the period 1999-2009) at the University Women's Hospital Bern were analysed using an internationally standardised and approved ten-group classification system. Caesarean sections on maternal request (CSMR) were evaluated separately. RESULTS We detected an overall CS rate of 36.63% and an increase in the CS rate over time (p <0.001). Low-risk profile groups were the two largest populations and displayed low CS rates, with significantly decreasing relative size over time. The relative size of groups with induced labour increased significantly, but this did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. Pregnancies complicated by breech position, multiple pregnancies and abnormal lies did not have an impact on overall CS rate. The biggest contributor to a high CS rate was preterm delivery and the existence of a uterine scar from a previous CS. CSMR was 1.45% and did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. CONCLUSION The observational study identified wide variations in caesarean section and vaginal delivery rates across the groups over time, and a shift towards high-risk populations was noted. The biggest contributors to high CS rates were identified; namely, previous uterine scar and preterm delivery. Interventions aiming to reduce CS rates are planned.

Tonic activity level in the right prefrontal cortex predicts individuals' risk taking

Human risk taking is characterized by a large amount of individual heterogeneity. In this study, we applied resting-state electroencephalography, which captures stable individual differences in neural activity, before subjects performed a risk-taking task. Using a source-localization technique, we found that the baseline cortical activity in the right prefrontal cortex predicts individual risk-taking behavior. Individuals with higher baseline cortical activity in this brain area display more risk aversion than do other individuals. This finding demonstrates that neural characteristics that are stable over time can predict a highly complex behavior such as risk-taking behavior and furthermore suggests that hypoactivity in the right prefrontal cortex might serve as a dispositional indicator of lower regulatory abilities, which is expressed in greater risk-taking behavior.

Use of diuretics and risk of incident gout: a population-based case-control study

OBJECTIVE Use of diuretics has been associated with an increased risk of gout. Data on different types of diuretics are scarce. We undertook this study to investigate the association between use of loop diuretics, thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics, and potassium-sparing agents and the risk of developing incident gout. METHODS We conducted a retrospective population-based case-control analysis using the General Practice Research Database established in the UK. We identified case patients who were diagnosed as having incident gout between 1990 and 2010. One control patient was matched to each case patient for age, sex, general practice, calendar time, and years of active history in the database. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and we adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS We identified 91,530 incident cases of gout and the same number of matched controls. Compared to past use of diuretics from each respective drug class, adjusted ORs for current use of loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, thiazide-like diuretics, and potassium-sparing diuretics were 2.64 (95% CI 2.47-2.83), 1.70 (95% CI 1.62-1.79), 2.30 (95% CI 1.95-2.70), and 1.06 (95% CI 0.91-1.23), respectively. Combined use of loop diuretics and thiazide diuretics was associated with the highest relative risk estimates of gout (adjusted OR 4.65 [95% CI 3.51-6.16]). Current use of calcium channel blockers or losartan slightly attenuated the risk of gout in patients who took diuretics. CONCLUSION Use of loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, and thiazide-like diuretics was associated with an increased risk of incident gout, although use of potassium-sparing agents was not.

Clinical importance of risk variants in the dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene for the prediction of early-onset fluoropyrimidine toxicity.

We investigated the clinical relevance of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene (DPYD) variants to predict severe early-onset fluoropyrimidine (FP) toxicity, in particular of a recently discovered haplotype hapB3 and a linked deep intronic splice site mutation c.1129-5923C>G. Selected regions of DPYD were sequenced in prospectively collected germline DNA of 500 patients receiving FP-based chemotherapy. Associations of DPYD variants and haplotypes with hematologic, gastrointestinal, infectious, and dermatologic toxicity in therapy cycles 1-2 and resulting FP-dose interventions (dose reduction, therapy delay or cessation) were analyzed accounting for clinical and demographic covariates. Fifteen additional cases with toxicity-related therapy delay or cessation were retrospectively examined for risk variants. The association of c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 (4.6% carrier frequency) with severe toxicity was replicated in an independent prospective cohort. Overall, c.1129-5923G/hapB3 carriers showed a relative risk of 3.74 (RR, 95% CI = 2.30-6.09, p = 2 × 10(-5)) for severe toxicity (grades 3-5). Of 31 risk variant carriers (c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3, c.1679T>G, c.1905+1G>A or c.2846A>T), 11 (all with c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3) experienced severe toxicity (15% of 72 cases, RR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.61-4.63, p = 5 × 10(-6)), and 16 carriers (55%) required FP-dose interventions. Seven of the 15 (47%) retrospective cases carried a risk variant. The c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 variant is a major contributor to severe early-onset FP toxicity in Caucasian patients. This variant may substantially improve the identification of patients at risk of FP toxicity compared to established DPYD risk variants (c.1905+1G>A, c.1679T>G and c.2846A>T). Pre-therapeutic DPYD testing may prevent 20-30% of life-threatening or lethal episodes of FP toxicity in Caucasian patients.

Effects of exercise with oxygen prebreathe for decompression risk reduction

Astronauts performing extravehicular activities (EVA) are at risk for occupational hazards due to a hypobaric environment, in particular Decompression Sickness (DCS). DCS results from nitrogen gas bubble formation in body tissues and venous blood. Denitrogenation achieved through lengthy staged decompression protocols has been the mainstay of prevention of DCS in space. Due to the greater number and duration of EVAs scheduled for construction and maintenance of the International Space Station, more efficient alternatives to accomplish missions without compromising astronaut safety are desirable. ^ This multi-center, multi-phase study (NASA-Prebreathe Reduction Protocol study, or PRP) was designed to identify a shorter denitrogenation protocol that can be implemented before an EVA, based on the combination of adynamia and exercise enhanced oxygen prebreathe. Human volunteers recruited at three sites (Texas, North Carolina and Canada) underwent three different combinations (“PRP phases”) of intense and light exercise prior to decompression in an altitude chamber. The outcome variables were detection of venous gas embolism (VGE) by precordial Doppler ultrasound, and clinical manifestations of DCS. Independent variables included age, gender, body mass index, oxygen consumption peak, peak heart rate, and PRP phase. Data analysis was performed both by pooling results from all study sites, and by examining each site separately. ^ Ten percent of the subjects developed DCS and 20% showed evidence of high grade VGE. No cases of DCS occurred in one particular PRP phase with use of the combination of dual-cycle ergometry (10 minutes at 75% of VO2 peak) plus 24 minutes of light EVA exercise (p = 0.04). No significant effects were found for the remaining independent variables on the occurrence of DCS. High grade VGE showed a strong correlation with subsequent development of DCS (sensitivity, 88.2%; specificity, 87.2%). In the presence of high grade VGE, the relative risk for DCS ranged from 7.52 to 35.0. ^ In summary, a good safety level can be achieved with exercise-enhanced oxygen denitrogenation that can be generalized to the astronaut population. Exercise is beneficial in preventing DCS if a specific schedule is followed, with an individualized VO2 prescription that provides a safety level that can then be applied to space operations. Furthermore, VGE Doppler detection is a useful clinical tool for prediction of altitude DCS. Because of the small number of high grade VGE episodes, the identification of a high probability DCS situation based on the presence of high grade VGE seems justified in astronauts. ^

Instrumental variable method for the causal relationship between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE) and risk of pancreatic cancer

This thesis project is motivated by the potential problem of using observational data to draw inferences about a causal relationship in observational epidemiology research when controlled randomization is not applicable. Instrumental variable (IV) method is one of the statistical tools to overcome this problem. Mendelian randomization study uses genetic variants as IVs in genetic association study. In this thesis, the IV method, as well as standard logistic and linear regression models, is used to investigate the causal association between risk of pancreatic cancer and the circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE). Higher levels of serum sRAGE were found to be associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in a previous observational study (255 cases and 485 controls). However, such a novel association may be biased by unknown confounding factors. In a case-control study, we aimed to use the IV approach to confirm or refute this observation in a subset of study subjects for whom the genotyping data were available (178 cases and 177 controls). Two-stage IV method using generalized method of moments-structural mean models (GMM-SMM) was conducted and the relative risk (RR) was calculated. In the first stage analysis, we found that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2070600 of the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (AGER) gene meets all three general assumptions for a genetic IV in examining the causal association between sRAGE and risk of pancreatic cancer. The variant allele of SNP rs2070600 of the AGER gene was associated with lower levels of sRAGE, and it was neither associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, nor with the confounding factors. It was a potential strong IV (F statistic = 29.2). However, in the second stage analysis, the GMM-SMM model failed to converge due to non- concaveness probably because of the small sample size. Therefore, the IV analysis could not support the causality of the association between serum sRAGE levels and risk of pancreatic cancer. Nevertheless, these analyses suggest that rs2070600 was a potentially good genetic IV for testing the causality between the risk of pancreatic cancer and sRAGE levels. A larger sample size is required to conduct a credible IV analysis.^

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger