An introduction to analysis of variance (ANOVA) with special reference to data from clinical experiments in optometry

This article is aimed primarily at eye care practitioners who are undertaking advanced clinical research, and who wish to apply analysis of variance (ANOVA) to their data. ANOVA is a data analysis method of great utility and flexibility. This article describes why and how ANOVA was developed, the basic logic which underlies the method and the assumptions that the method makes for it to be validly applied to data from clinical experiments in optometry. The application of the method to the analysis of a simple data set is then described. In addition, the methods available for making planned comparisons between treatment means and for making post hoc tests are evaluated. The problem of determining the number of replicates or patients required in a given experimental situation is also discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 The College of Optometrists.

GLM-beamformer method demonstrates stationary field, alpha ERD and gamma ERS co-localisation with fMRI BOLD response in visual cortex

Recently, we introduced a new 'GLM-beamformer' technique for MEG analysis that enables accurate localisation of both phase-locked and non-phase-locked neuromagnetic effects, and their representation as statistical parametric maps (SPMs). This provides a useful framework for comparison of the full range of MEG responses with fMRI BOLD results. This paper reports a 'proof of principle' study using a simple visual paradigm (static checkerboard). The five subjects each underwent both MEG and fMRI paradigms. We demonstrate, for the first time, the presence of a sustained (DC) field in the visual cortex, and its co-localisation with the visual BOLD response. The GLM-beamformer analysis method is also used to investigate the main non-phase-locked oscillatory effects: an event-related desynchronisation (ERD) in the alpha band (8-13 Hz) and an event-related synchronisation (ERS) in the gamma band (55-70 Hz). We show, using SPMs and virtual electrode traces, the spatio-temporal covariance of these effects with the visual BOLD response. Comparisons between MEG and fMRI data sets generally focus on the relationship between the BOLD response and the transient evoked response. Here, we show that the stationary field and changes in oscillatory power are also important contributors to the BOLD response, and should be included in future studies on the relationship between neuronal activation and the haemodynamic response. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of task analysis techniques for industrial process control

The concept of a task is fundamental to the discipline of ergonomics. Approaches to the analysis of tasks began in the early 1900's. These approaches have evolved and developed to the present day, when there is a vast array of methods available. Some of these methods are specific to particular contexts or applications, others more general. However, whilst many of these analyses allow tasks to be examined in detail, they do not act as tools to aid the design process or the designer. The present thesis examines the use of task analysis in a process control context, and in particular the use of task analysis to specify operator information and display requirements in such systems. The first part of the thesis examines the theoretical aspect of task analysis and presents a review of the methods, issues and concepts relating to task analysis. A review of over 80 methods of task analysis was carried out to form a basis for the development of a task analysis method to specify operator information requirements in industrial process control contexts. Of the methods reviewed Hierarchical Task Analysis was selected to provide such a basis and developed to meet the criteria outlined for such a method of task analysis. The second section outlines the practical application and evolution of the developed task analysis method. Four case studies were used to examine the method in an empirical context. The case studies represent a range of plant contexts and types, both complex and more simple, batch and continuous and high risk and low risk processes. The theoretical and empirical issues are drawn together and a method developed to provide a task analysis technique to specify operator information requirements and to provide the first stages of a tool to aid the design of VDU displays for process control.

A novel detection method for determining a surgeon's fatigue and hand tremor

The thesis presents new methodology and algorithms that can be used to analyse and measure the hand tremor and fatigue of surgeons while performing surgery. This will assist them in deriving useful information about their fatigue levels, and make them aware of the changes in their tool point accuracies. This thesis proposes that muscular changes of surgeons, which occur through a day of operating, can be monitored using Electromyography (EMG) signals. The multi-channel EMG signals are measured at different muscles in the upper arm of surgeons. The dependence of EMG signals has been examined to test the hypothesis that EMG signals are coupled with and dependent on each other. The results demonstrated that EMG signals collected from different channels while mimicking an operating posture are independent. Consequently, single channel fatigue analysis has been performed. In measuring hand tremor, a new method for determining the maximum tremor amplitude using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new technique to detrend acceleration signals using Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm were introduced. This tremor determination method is more representative for surgeons and it is suggested as an alternative fatigue measure. This was combined with the complexity analysis method, and applied to surgically captured data to determine if operating has an effect on a surgeon’s fatigue and tremor levels. It was found that surgical tremor and fatigue are developed throughout a day of operating and that this could be determined based solely on their initial values. Finally, several Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural networks were evaluated. The results suggest that it is possible to monitor surgeon tremor variations during surgery from their EMG fatigue measurements.

Evaluation of hemifield sector analysis protocol in multifocal visual evoked potential (MFVEP) objective perimetry for the diagnosis and early detection of glaucomatous field defects

Visual field assessment is a core component of glaucoma diagnosis and monitoring, and the Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) test is considered up until this moment, the gold standard of visual field assessment. Although SAP is a subjective assessment and has many pitfalls, it is being constantly used in the diagnosis of visual field loss in glaucoma. Multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP) is a newly introduced method used for visual field assessment objectively. Several analysis protocols have been tested to identify early visual field losses in glaucoma patients using the mfVEP technique, some were successful in detection of field defects, which were comparable to the standard SAP visual field assessment, and others were not very informative and needed more adjustment and research work. In this study, we implemented a novel analysis approach and evaluated its validity and whether it could be used effectively for early detection of visual field defects in glaucoma. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of a new analysis method in the Multi-Focal Visual Evoked Potential (mfVEP) when it is used for the objective assessment of the visual field in glaucoma patients, compared to the gold standard technique. METHODS: 3 groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes) and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects had a two standard Humphrey visual field HFA test 24-2 and a single mfVEP test undertaken in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was done using the new analysis protocol; the Hemifield Sector Analysis HSA protocol. Analysis of the HFA was done using the standard grading system. RESULTS: Analysis of mfVEP results showed that there was a statistically significant difference between the 3 groups in the mean signal to noise ratio SNR (ANOVA p<0.001 with a 95% CI). The difference between superior and inferior hemispheres in all subjects were all statistically significant in the glaucoma patient group 11/11 sectors (t-test p<0.001), partially significant 5/11 (t-test p<0.01) and no statistical difference between most sectors in normal group (only 1/11 was significant) (t-test p<0.9). sensitivity and specificity of the HAS protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86% respectively, while for glaucoma suspect were 89% and 79%. DISCUSSION: The results showed that the new analysis protocol was able to confirm already existing field defects detected by standard HFA, was able to differentiate between the 3 study groups with a clear distinction between normal and patients with suspected glaucoma; however the distinction between normal and glaucoma patients was especially clear and significant. CONCLUSION: The new HSA protocol used in the mfVEP testing can be used to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patient. Using this protocol can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, which can be utilized to differentiate between glaucoma and normal subjects. Sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucoma field loss.

The role of hemifield sector analysis in multifocal visual evoked potential objective perimetry in the early detection of glaucomatous visual field defects

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a new analysis method of mfVEP objective perimetry in the early detection of glaucomatous visual field defects compared to the gold standard technique. Methods and patients: Three groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes), and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects underwent two standard 24-2 visual field tests: one with the Humphrey Field Analyzer and a single mfVEP test in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was carried out using the new analysis protocol: the hemifield sector analysis protocol. Results: Analysis of the mfVEP showed that the signal to noise ratio (SNR) difference between superior and inferior hemifields was statistically significant between the three groups (analysis of variance, P<0.001 with a 95% confidence interval, 2.82, 2.89 for normal group; 2.25, 2.29 for glaucoma suspect group; 1.67, 1.73 for glaucoma group). The difference between superior and inferior hemifield sectors and hemi-rings was statistically significant in 11/11 pair of sectors and hemi-rings in the glaucoma patients group (t-test P<0.001), statistically significant in 5/11 pairs of sectors and hemi-rings in the glaucoma suspect group (t-test P<0.01), and only 1/11 pair was statistically significant (t-test P<0.9). The sensitivity and specificity of the hemifield sector analysis protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86% respectively and 89% and 79% in glaucoma suspects. These results showed that the new analysis protocol was able to confirm existing visual field defects detected by standard perimetry, was able to differentiate between the three study groups with a clear distinction between normal patients and those with suspected glaucoma, and was able to detect early visual field changes not detected by standard perimetry. In addition, the distinction between normal and glaucoma patients was especially clear and significant using this analysis. Conclusion: The new hemifield sector analysis protocol used in mfVEP testing can be used to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patients. Using this protocol, it can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, which can be utilized to differentiate between glaucoma and normal subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucomatous visual field loss. The intersector analysis protocol can detect early field changes not detected by the standard Humphrey Field Analyzer test. © 2013 Mousa et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

A near real-time water surface detection method based on HSV transformation of MODIS multi-Spectral time series data

In the face of global population growth and the uneven distribution of water supply, a better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources is critical. Remote sensing provides a synoptic view of ongoing processes, which addresses the intricate nature of water surfaces and allows an assessment of the pressures placed on aquatic ecosystems. However, the main challenge in identifying water surfaces from remotely sensed data is the high variability of spectral signatures, both in space and time. In the last 10 years only a few operational methods have been proposed to map or monitor surface water at continental or global scale, and each of them show limitations. The objective of this study is to develop and demonstrate the adequacy of a generic multi-temporal and multi-spectral image analysis method to detect water surfaces automatically, and to monitor them in near-real-time. The proposed approach, based on a transformation of the RGB color space into HSV, provides dynamic information at the continental scale. The validation of the algorithm showed very few omission errors and no commission errors. It demonstrates the ability of the proposed algorithm to perform as effectively as human interpretation of the images. The validation of the permanent water surface product with an independent dataset derived from high resolution imagery, showed an accuracy of 91.5% and few commission errors. Potential applications of the proposed method have been identified and discussed. The methodology that has been developed 27 is generic: it can be applied to sensors with similar bands with good reliability, and minimal effort. Moreover, this experiment at continental scale showed that the methodology is efficient for a large range of environmental conditions. Additional preliminary tests over other continents indicate that the proposed methodology could also be applied at the global scale without too many difficulties

Short fatigue crack growth behaviour:data analysis effects

Consideration of the influence of test technique and data analysis method is important for data comparison and design purposes. The paper highlights the effects of replication interval, crack growth rate averaging and curve-fitting procedures on crack growth rate results for a Ni-base alloy. It is shown that an upper bound crack growth rate line is not appropriate for use in fatigue design, and that the derivative of a quadratic fit to the a vs N data looks promising. However, this type of averaging, or curve fitting, is not useful in developing an understanding of microstructure/crack tip interactions. For this purpose, simple replica-to-replica growth rate calculations are preferable. © 1988.

A method for solving LSM problems of small size in the AHP

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most popular methods used in Multi-Attribute Decision Making. It provides with ratio-scale measurements of the prioirities of elements on the various leveles of a hierarchy. These priorities are obtained through the pairwise comparisons of elements on one level with reference to each element on the immediate higher level. The Eigenvector Method (EM) and some distance minimizing methods such as the Least Squares Method (LSM), Logarithmic Least Squares Method (LLSM), Weighted Least Squares Method (WLSM) and Chi Squares Method (X2M) are of the tools for computing the priorities of the alternatives. This paper studies a method for generating all the solutions of the LSM problems for 3 × 3 matrices. We observe non-uniqueness and rank reversals by presenting numerical results.

Color-based surface reflectance separation for scene illumination estimation and rendering

Given the importance of color processing in computer vision and computer graphics, estimating and rendering illumination spectral reflectance of image scenes is important to advance the capability of a large class of applications such as scene reconstruction, rendering, surface segmentation, object recognition, and reflectance estimation. Consequently, this dissertation proposes effective methods for reflection components separation and rendering in single scene images. Based on the dichromatic reflectance model, a novel decomposition technique, named the Mean-Shift Decomposition (MSD) method, is introduced to separate the specular from diffuse reflectance components. This technique provides a direct access to surface shape information through diffuse shading pixel isolation. More importantly, this process does not require any local color segmentation process, which differs from the traditional methods that operate by aggregating color information along each image plane. ^ Exploiting the merits of the MSD method, a scene illumination rendering technique is designed to estimate the relative contributing specular reflectance attributes of a scene image. The image feature subset targeted provides a direct access to the surface illumination information, while a newly introduced efficient rendering method reshapes the dynamic range distribution of the specular reflectance components over each image color channel. This image enhancement technique renders the scene illumination reflection effectively without altering the scene’s surface diffuse attributes contributing to realistic rendering effects. ^ As an ancillary contribution, an effective color constancy algorithm based on the dichromatic reflectance model was also developed. This algorithm selects image highlights in order to extract the prominent surface reflectance that reproduces the exact illumination chromaticity. This evaluation is presented using a novel voting scheme technique based on histogram analysis. ^ In each of the three main contributions, empirical evaluations were performed on synthetic and real-world image scenes taken from three different color image datasets. The experimental results show over 90% accuracy in illumination estimation contributing to near real world illumination rendering effects. ^

Radiotherapy Treatment Assessment using DCE-MRI

Abstract

The goal of modern radiotherapy is to precisely deliver a prescribed radiation dose to delineated target volumes that contain a significant amount of tumor cells while sparing the surrounding healthy tissues/organs. Precise delineation of treatment and avoidance volumes is the key for the precision radiation therapy. In recent years, considerable clinical and research efforts have been devoted to integrate MRI into radiotherapy workflow motivated by the superior soft tissue contrast and functional imaging possibility. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) is a noninvasive technique that measures properties of tissue microvasculature. Its sensitivity to radiation-induced vascular pharmacokinetic (PK) changes has been preliminary demonstrated. In spite of its great potential, two major challenges have limited DCE-MRI’s clinical application in radiotherapy assessment: the technical limitations of accurate DCE-MRI imaging implementation and the need of novel DCE-MRI data analysis methods for richer functional heterogeneity information.

This study aims at improving current DCE-MRI techniques and developing new DCE-MRI analysis methods for particular radiotherapy assessment. Thus, the study is naturally divided into two parts. The first part focuses on DCE-MRI temporal resolution as one of the key DCE-MRI technical factors, and some improvements regarding DCE-MRI temporal resolution are proposed; the second part explores the potential value of image heterogeneity analysis and multiple PK model combination for therapeutic response assessment, and several novel DCE-MRI data analysis methods are developed.

I. Improvement of DCE-MRI temporal resolution. First, the feasibility of improving DCE-MRI temporal resolution via image undersampling was studied. Specifically, a novel MR image iterative reconstruction algorithm was studied for DCE-MRI reconstruction. This algorithm was built on the recently developed compress sensing (CS) theory. By utilizing a limited k-space acquisition with shorter imaging time, images can be reconstructed in an iterative fashion under the regularization of a newly proposed total generalized variation (TGV) penalty term. In the retrospective study of brain radiosurgery patient DCE-MRI scans under IRB-approval, the clinically obtained image data was selected as reference data, and the simulated accelerated k-space acquisition was generated via undersampling the reference image full k-space with designed sampling grids. Two undersampling strategies were proposed: 1) a radial multi-ray grid with a special angular distribution was adopted to sample each slice of the full k-space; 2) a Cartesian random sampling grid series with spatiotemporal constraints from adjacent frames was adopted to sample the dynamic k-space series at a slice location. Two sets of PK parameters’ maps were generated from the undersampled data and from the fully-sampled data, respectively. Multiple quantitative measurements and statistical studies were performed to evaluate the accuracy of PK maps generated from the undersampled data in reference to the PK maps generated from the fully-sampled data. Results showed that at a simulated acceleration factor of four, PK maps could be faithfully calculated from the DCE images that were reconstructed using undersampled data, and no statistically significant differences were found between the regional PK mean values from undersampled and fully-sampled data sets. DCE-MRI acceleration using the investigated image reconstruction method has been suggested as feasible and promising.

Second, for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI, a new PK model fitting method was developed to solve PK parameters for better calculation accuracy and efficiency. This method is based on a derivative-based deformation of the commonly used Tofts PK model, which is presented as an integrative expression. This method also includes an advanced Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter to remove the potential noise effect in data and solve the PK parameter as a linear problem in matrix format. In the computer simulation study, PK parameters representing typical intracranial values were selected as references to simulated DCE-MRI data for different temporal resolution and different data noise level. Results showed that at both high temporal resolutions (<1s) and clinically feasible temporal resolution (~5s), this new method was able to calculate PK parameters more accurate than the current calculation methods at clinically relevant noise levels; at high temporal resolutions, the calculation efficiency of this new method was superior to current methods in an order of 102. In a retrospective of clinical brain DCE-MRI scans, the PK maps derived from the proposed method were comparable with the results from current methods. Based on these results, it can be concluded that this new method can be used for accurate and efficient PK model fitting for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI.

II. Development of DCE-MRI analysis methods for therapeutic response assessment. This part aims at methodology developments in two approaches. The first one is to develop model-free analysis method for DCE-MRI functional heterogeneity evaluation. This approach is inspired by the rationale that radiotherapy-induced functional change could be heterogeneous across the treatment area. The first effort was spent on a translational investigation of classic fractal dimension theory for DCE-MRI therapeutic response assessment. In a small-animal anti-angiogenesis drug therapy experiment, the randomly assigned treatment/control groups received multiple fraction treatments with one pre-treatment and multiple post-treatment high spatiotemporal DCE-MRI scans. In the post-treatment scan two weeks after the start, the investigated Rényi dimensions of the classic PK rate constant map demonstrated significant differences between the treatment and the control groups; when Rényi dimensions were adopted for treatment/control group classification, the achieved accuracy was higher than the accuracy from using conventional PK parameter statistics. Following this pilot work, two novel texture analysis methods were proposed. First, a new technique called Gray Level Local Power Matrix (GLLPM) was developed. It intends to solve the lack of temporal information and poor calculation efficiency of the commonly used Gray Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCOM) techniques. In the same small animal experiment, the dynamic curves of Haralick texture features derived from the GLLPM had an overall better performance than the corresponding curves derived from current GLCOM techniques in treatment/control separation and classification. The second developed method is dynamic Fractal Signature Dissimilarity (FSD) analysis. Inspired by the classic fractal dimension theory, this method measures the dynamics of tumor heterogeneity during the contrast agent uptake in a quantitative fashion on DCE images. In the small animal experiment mentioned before, the selected parameters from dynamic FSD analysis showed significant differences between treatment/control groups as early as after 1 treatment fraction; in contrast, metrics from conventional PK analysis showed significant differences only after 3 treatment fractions. When using dynamic FSD parameters, the treatment/control group classification after 1st treatment fraction was improved than using conventional PK statistics. These results suggest the promising application of this novel method for capturing early therapeutic response.

The second approach of developing novel DCE-MRI methods is to combine PK information from multiple PK models. Currently, the classic Tofts model or its alternative version has been widely adopted for DCE-MRI analysis as a gold-standard approach for therapeutic response assessment. Previously, a shutter-speed (SS) model was proposed to incorporate transcytolemmal water exchange effect into contrast agent concentration quantification. In spite of richer biological assumption, its application in therapeutic response assessment is limited. It might be intriguing to combine the information from the SS model and from the classic Tofts model to explore potential new biological information for treatment assessment. The feasibility of this idea was investigated in the same small animal experiment. The SS model was compared against the Tofts model for therapeutic response assessment using PK parameter regional mean value comparison. Based on the modeled transcytolemmal water exchange rate, a biological subvolume was proposed and was automatically identified using histogram analysis. Within the biological subvolume, the PK rate constant derived from the SS model were proved to be superior to the one from Tofts model in treatment/control separation and classification. Furthermore, novel biomarkers were designed to integrate PK rate constants from these two models. When being evaluated in the biological subvolume, this biomarker was able to reflect significant treatment/control difference in both post-treatment evaluation. These results confirm the potential value of SS model as well as its combination with Tofts model for therapeutic response assessment.

In summary, this study addressed two problems of DCE-MRI application in radiotherapy assessment. In the first part, a method of accelerating DCE-MRI acquisition for better temporal resolution was investigated, and a novel PK model fitting algorithm was proposed for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI. In the second part, two model-free texture analysis methods and a multiple-model analysis method were developed for DCE-MRI therapeutic response assessment. The presented works could benefit the future DCE-MRI routine clinical application in radiotherapy assessment.

Multivariate analysis of regional-scale geochemical data for environmental monitoring

A compositional multivariate approach is used to analyse regional scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey Northern Ireland (GSNI). The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise XRF analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20cm depths on a non-aligned grid at one site per 2 km2. Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Using these imputed values for 46 elements (including LOI), each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map provided by GSNI initially using the dominant lithology for the map polygon. Northern Ireland includes a diversity of geology representing a stratigraphic record from the Mesoproterozoic, up to and including the Palaeogene. However, the advance of ice sheets and their meltwaters over the last 100,000 years has left at least 80% of the bedrock covered by superficial deposits, including glacial till and post-glacial alluvium and peat. The question is to what extent the soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. To address this, the geochemical data were transformed using centered log ratios (clr) to observe the requirements of compositional data analysis and avoid closure issues. Following this, compositional multivariate techniques including compositional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis method were used to determine the influence of underlying geology on the soil geochemistry signature. PCA showed that 72% of the variation was determined by the first four principal components (PC’s) implying “significant” structure in the data. Analysis of variance showed that only 10 PC’s were necessary to classify the soil geochemical data. To consider an improvement over PCA that uses the spatial relationships of the data, a classification based on MAF analysis was undertaken using the first 6 dominant factors. Understanding the relationship between soil geochemistry and superficial deposits is important for environmental monitoring of fragile ecosystems such as peat. To explore whether peat cover could be predicted from the classification, the lithology designation was adapted to include the presence of peat, based on GSNI superficial deposit polygons and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) undertaken. Prediction accuracy for LDA classification improved from 60.98% based on PCA using 10 principal components to 64.73% using MAF based on the 6 most dominant factors. The misclassification of peat may reflect degradation of peat covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification. Further work will examine the influence of underlying lithologies on elemental concentrations in peat composition and the effect of this in classification analysis.

Random Forest Based Approach for Concept-Drift Handling

Algorithms for concept drift handling are important for various applications including video analysis and smart grids. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classication method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with îriginal random forest with incorporated replace-the-looser forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drift classiers like AWE2.

GPS inferred velocity and strain rate fields in eastern Canada

La vallée du fleuve Saint-Laurent, dans l’est du Canada, est l’une des régions sismiques les plus actives dans l’est de l’Amérique du Nord et est caractérisée par de nombreux tremblements de terre intraplaques. Après la rotation rigide de la plaque tectonique, l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire est de loin la plus grande source de signal géophysique dans l’est du Canada. Les déformations et les vitesses de déformation de la croûte terrestre de cette région ont été étudiées en utilisant plus de 14 ans d’observations (9 ans en moyenne) de 112 stations GPS fonctionnant en continu. Le champ de vitesse a été obtenu à partir de séries temporelles de coordonnées GPS quotidiennes nettoyées en appliquant un modèle combiné utilisant une pondération par moindres carrés. Les vitesses ont été estimées avec des modèles de bruit qui incluent les corrélations temporelles des séries temporelles des coordonnées tridimensionnelles. Le champ de vitesse horizontale montre la rotation antihoraire de la plaque nord-américaine avec une vitesse moyenne de 16,8±0,7 mm/an dans un modèle sans rotation nette (no-net-rotation) par rapport à l’ITRF2008. Le champ de vitesse verticale confirme un soulèvement dû à l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire partout dans l’est du Canada avec un taux maximal de 13,7±1,2 mm/an et un affaissement vers le sud, principalement au nord des États-Unis, avec un taux typique de −1 à −2 mm/an et un taux minimum de −2,7±1,4 mm/an. Le comportement du bruit des séries temporelles des coordonnées GPS tridimensionnelles a été analysé en utilisant une analyse spectrale et la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance pour tester cinq modèles de bruit: loi de puissance; bruit blanc; bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation; bruit blanc et marche aléatoire; bruit blanc, bruit de scintillation et marche aléatoire. Les résultats montrent que la combinaison bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation est le meilleur modèle pour décrire la partie stochastique des séries temporelles. Les amplitudes de tous les modèles de bruit sont plus faibles dans la direction nord et plus grandes dans la direction verticale. Les amplitudes du bruit blanc sont à peu près égales à travers la zone d’étude et sont donc surpassées, dans toutes les directions, par le bruit de scintillation et de marche aléatoire. Le modèle de bruit de scintillation augmente l’incertitude des vitesses estimées par un facteur de 5 à 38 par rapport au modèle de bruit blanc. Les vitesses estimées de tous les modèles de bruit sont statistiquement cohérentes. Les paramètres estimés du pôle eulérien de rotation pour cette région sont légèrement, mais significativement, différents de la rotation globale de la plaque nord-américaine. Cette différence reflète potentiellement les contraintes locales dans cette région sismique et les contraintes causées par la différence des vitesses intraplaques entre les deux rives du fleuve Saint-Laurent. La déformation de la croûte terrestre de la région a été étudiée en utilisant la méthode de collocation par moindres carrés. Les vitesses horizontales interpolées montrent un mouvement cohérent spatialement: soit un mouvement radial vers l’extérieur pour les centres de soulèvement maximal au nord et un mouvement radial vers l’intérieur pour les centres d’affaissement maximal au sud, avec une vitesse typique de 1 à 1,6±0,4 mm/an. Cependant, ce modèle devient plus complexe près des marges des anciennes zones glaciaires. Basées selon leurs directions, les vitesses horizontales intraplaques peuvent être divisées en trois zones distinctes. Cela confirme les conclusions d’autres chercheurs sur l’existence de trois dômes de glace dans la région d’étude avant le dernier maximum glaciaire. Une corrélation spatiale est observée entre les zones de vitesses horizontales intraplaques de magnitude plus élevée et les zones sismiques le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent. Les vitesses verticales ont ensuite été interpolées pour modéliser la déformation verticale. Le modèle montre un taux de soulèvement maximal de 15,6 mm/an au sud-est de la baie d’Hudson et un taux d’affaissement typique de 1 à 2 mm/an au sud, principalement dans le nord des États-Unis. Le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent, les mouvements horizontaux et verticaux sont cohérents spatialement. Il y a un déplacement vers le sud-est d’une magnitude d’environ 1,3 mm/an et un soulèvement moyen de 3,1 mm/an par rapport à la plaque l’Amérique du Nord. Le taux de déformation verticale est d’environ 2,4 fois plus grand que le taux de déformation horizontale intraplaque. Les résultats de l’analyse de déformation montrent l’état actuel de déformation dans l’est du Canada sous la forme d’une expansion dans la partie nord (la zone se soulève) et d’une compression dans la partie sud (la zone s’affaisse). Les taux de rotation sont en moyenne de 0,011°/Ma. Nous avons observé une compression NNO-SSE avec un taux de 3.6 à 8.1 nstrain/an dans la zone sismique du Bas-Saint-Laurent. Dans la zone sismique de Charlevoix, une expansion avec un taux de 3,0 à 7,1 nstrain/an est orientée ENE-OSO. Dans la zone sismique de l’Ouest du Québec, la déformation a un mécanisme de cisaillement avec un taux de compression de 1,0 à 5,1 nstrain/an et un taux d’expansion de 1.6 à 4.1 nstrain/an. Ces mesures sont conformes, au premier ordre, avec les modèles d’ajustement isostatique glaciaire et avec la contrainte de compression horizontale maximale du projet World Stress Map, obtenue à partir de la théorie des mécanismes focaux (focal mechanism method).

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08