Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: 1. Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. 2. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

A prospective clinical trial of a real-time polymerase chain reaction assay for the diagnosis of candidemia in nonneutropenic, critically ill adults

Background. Invasive Candida infection among nonneutropenic, critically ill adults is a clinical problem that has received increasing attention in recent years. Poor performance of extant diagnostic modalities has promoted risk-based, preemptive prescribing in view of the poor outcomes associated with inadequate or delayed antifungal therapy; this risks unnecessary overtreatment. A rapid, reliable diagnostic test could have a substantial impact on therapeutic practice in this patient population.

Methods. Three TaqMan-based real-time polymerase chain reaction assays were developed that are capable of detecting the main medically important Candida species, categorized according to the likelihood of fluconazole susceptibility. Assay 1 detected Candida albicans, Candida parapsilosis, Candida tropicalis, and Candida dubliniensis. Assays 2 and 3 detected Candida glabrata and Candida krusei, respectively. The clinical performance of these assays, applied to serum, was evaluated in a prospective trial of nonneutropenic adults in a single intensive care unit.

Results. In all, 527 specimens were obtained from 157 participants. All 3 assays were run in parallel for each specimen; they could be completed within 1 working day. Of these, 23 specimens were obtained from 23 participants categorized as having proven Candida infection at the time of sampling. If a single episode of Candida famata candidemia was excluded, the estimated clinical sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the assays in this trial were 90.9%, 100%, 100% and 99.8%, respectively.

Conclusions. These data suggest that the described assays perform well in this population for enhancing the diagnosis of candidemia. The extent to which they may affect clinical outcomes, prescribing practice, and cost-effectiveness of care remains to be ascertained.

Bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils in Northern Ireland

Assessment of elevated concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTE) in soils and the association with specific soil parent material have been the focus of research for a number of years. Risk-based assessment of potential exposure scenarios to identified elevated PTE concentrations has led to the derivation of site- and contaminant-specific soil guideline values (SGVs), which represent generic assessment criteria (GACs) to identify exceeded levels that may reflect an unacceptable risk to human health. A better understanding of the ‘bioavailable’ or ‘bioaccessible’ contaminant concentrations offers an opportunity to better refine contaminant exposure assessments. Utilizing a comprehensive soil geochemical dataset for Northern Ireland provided by the Tellus Survey (GSNI) in conjunction with supplementary bioaccessibility testing of selected soil samples following the Unified BARGE Method, this paper uses exploratory data analysis and geostatistical analysis to investigate the spatial variability of pseudo-total and bioaccessible concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cr. Cu, Ni, Pb, U, V and Zn. The paper investigates variations in individual element concentrations as well as cross-element correlations and observed lithological/pedological associations. The analysis of PTE concentrations highlighted exceeded levels of GAC values for V and Cr and exceeded SGV/GAC values for Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn. UBM testing showed that for some soil parent materials associated with elevated PTE concentrations e.g. the Antrim Lava Group with high Ni concentrations, the measured oral bioaccessible fraction was relatively low. For other soil parent materials with relatively moderate PTE concentrations, measured oral bioaccessible fraction was relatively high (e.g. the Gala Sandstone Group of the Southern Uplands-Down Longford Terrain). These findings have implications for regional human health risk assessments for specific PTEs.

Detection of hazardous food contaminants by transcriptomics fingerprinting

Unprecedented biotechnological advances in the past decade have delivered powerful transcriptomics methods that provide new opportunities for a risk-based and, hence, more effective control of food quality and safety. The fundamental hypothesis underlying the application of a transcriptomics or other

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.

'Grooming' and the Sexual Abuse of Children:Institutional, Internet and Familial Dimensions

‘Grooming’ and the Sexual Abuse of Children: Institutional, Internet and Familial Dimensions critically examines the official and popular discourses on grooming, predominantly framed within the context of on-line sexual exploitation and abuse committed by strangers, and institutional child abuse committed by those in positions of trust.

Set against the broader theoretical framework of risk, security and governance, this book argues that due to the difficulties of drawing clear boundaries between innocuous and harmful motivations towards children, pre-emptive risk-based criminal law and policy are inherently limited in preventing, targeting and criminalising ‘grooming’ behaviour prior to the manifestation of actual harm. Through examination of grooming against the complexities of the onset of sexual offending against children and its actual role in this process, the author broadens existing discourses by providing a fuller, more nuanced conceptualisation of grooming, including its role in intra-familial and extra-familial contexts. There is also timely discussion of new and emerging forms of grooming, such as ‘street’ or ‘localised’ grooming, as typified by recent cases in Rochdale and Oldham, and ‘peer-to-peer’ grooming.

The first inter-disciplinary, thematic, and empirical investigation of grooming in a multi-jurisdictional context, ‘Grooming’ and the Sexual Abuse of Children draws on extensive empirical research in the form of over fifty interviews with professionals, working in the fields of sex offender risk assessment, management or treatment, as well as child protection or victim support in the four jurisdictions of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Impeccably presented and meticulously considered, this book will be of interest to criminologists and those working and studying in the field of policing and criminal justice studies, as well as policy makers and practitioners in the areas of child protection and sex offender management.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the diagnosis and management of Barrett's oesophagus

These guidelines provide a practical and evidence-based resource for the management of patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related early neoplasia. The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument was followed to provide a methodological strategy for the guideline development. A systematic review of the literature was performed for English language articles published up until December 2012 in order to address controversial issues in Barrett's oesophagus including definition, screening and diagnosis, surveillance, pathological grading for dysplasia, management of dysplasia, and early cancer including training requirements. The rigour and quality of the studies was evaluated using the SIGN checklist system. Recommendations on each topic were scored by each author using a five-tier system (A+, strong agreement, to D+, strongly disagree). Statements that failed to reach substantial agreement among authors, defined as >80% agreement (A or A+), were revisited and modified until substantial agreement (>80%) was reached. In formulating these guidelines, we took into consideration benefits and risks for the population and national health system, as well as patient perspectives. For the first time, we have suggested stratification of patients according to their estimated cancer risk based on clinical and histopathological criteria. In order to improve communication between clinicians, we recommend the use of minimum datasets for reporting endoscopic and pathological findings. We advocate endoscopic therapy for high-grade dysplasia and early cancer, which should be performed in high-volume centres. We hope that these guidelines will standardise and improve management for patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related neoplasia.

Governing Public Health: EU Law, Regulation and Biopolitics

This book contributes towards EU studies and the growing discourse on law and public health. It uses the EU’s governance of public health as a lens through which to explore questions of legal competence and its development through policy and concrete techniques, processes and practices, risk and security, human rights and bioethics, accountability and legitimacy, democracy and citizenship, and the nature, essence and ‘future trajectory’ of the European integration project. These issues are explored first, by situating the EU's public health strategy within the overarching architecture of governance and subsequently by examining its operationalisation in relation to the key public health problems of cancer, HIV/AIDS and pandemic planning.

The book argues that the centrality and valorisation of scientific and technical knowledge and expertise in the EU's risk-based governance means that citizen participation in decision-making is largely marginalised and underdeveloped – and that this must change if public health and the quality, accountability and legitimacy of EU governance and its regulation are to be improved. Subsequently the book goes on to argue that the legitimating discourses of ethics and human rights, and the developing notion of EU (supra-)stewardship responsibility, can help to highlight the normative dimensions of governance and its interventions in public health. These discourses and dimensions provide openings and possibilities for citizens to power ‘technologies of participation’ and contribute important supplementary knowledge to decision-making.

Making way for change at the Bar: The practical implications of the new Bar Standards Board Handbook

The Legal Services Act 2007 caused a need to change professional conduct rules for lawyers in England and Wales. The Bar Standards Board Handbook brings substantial changes to the way barristers are regulated. Changes include litigation rights, reporting of professional misconduct, an increased focus on chambers, and expansion to include employees of chambers and barristers without practicing certificates (unregistered or non-practicing barristers). The approach to enforcement and supervision moves to include elements of outcome focused, principle based and risk based approaches. These changes have the potential to change the practice of different groups of barristers and the dynamics between them.

Simulação, em software adequado, da sintomatologia vibracional de avarias mecânicas de máquinas rotativas

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica na Área de Manutenção e Produção

Estágio na empresa SPECMAN para a prática de técnicas de controlo da condição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Análise por ultra-sons no controlo de condição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Trace metals in size-fractionated particulate matter in a Portuguese hospital: exposure risks assessment and comparisons with other countries

Hospitals are considered as a special and important type of indoor public place where air quality has significant impacts on potential health outcomes. Information on indoor air quality of these environments, concerning exposures to particulate matter (PM) and related toxicity, is limited though. This work aims to evaluate risks associated with inhalation exposure to ten toxic metals and chlorine (As, Ni, Cr, Cd, Pb, Mn, Se, Ba, Al, Si, and Cl) in coarse (PM2.5–10) and fine (PM2.5) particles in a Portuguese hospital in comparison with studies representative of other countries. Samples were collected during 1 month in one urban hospital; elemental PM characterization was determined by proton-induced X-ray emission. Noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were assessed according to the methodology provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA; Region III Risk-Based Concentration Table) for three different age categories of hospital personnel (adults, >20, and <65 years) and patients (considering nine different age groups, i.e., children of 1–3 years to seniors of >65 years). The estimated noncarcinogenic risks due to occupational inhalation exposure to PM2.5-bound metals ranged from 5.88×10−6 for Se (adults, 55–64 years) to 9.35×10−1 for As (adults, 20–24 years) with total noncarcinogenic risks (sum of all metals) above the safe level for all three age categories. As and Cl (the latter due to its high abundances) were the most important contributors (approximately 90 %) to noncarcinogenic risks. For PM2.5–10, noncarcinogenic risks of all metals were acceptable to all age groups. Concerning carcinogenic risks, for Ni and Pb, they were negligible (<1×10−6) in both PM fractions for all age groups of hospital personnel; potential risks were observed for As and Cr with values in PM2.5 exceeding (up to 62 and 5 times, respectively) USEPA guideline across all age groups; for PM2.5–10, increased excess risks of As and Cr were observed particularly for long-term exposures (adults, 55–64 years). Total carcinogenic risks highly (up to 67 times) exceeded the recommended level for all age groups, thus clearly showing that occupational exposure to metals in fine particles pose significant risks. If the extensive working hours of hospital medical staff were considered, the respective noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were increased, the latter for PM2.5 exceeding the USEPA cumulative guideline of 10−4. For adult patients, the estimated noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were approximately three times higher than for personnel, with particular concerns observed for children and adolescents.

Effets d’un programme prénatal de groupe adressé aux couples parentaux pour prévenir la dépression postnatale des femmes de classes moyenne et défavorisée habitant en Catalogne Nord et en France Sud

La dépression postnatale (DP) est un problème de santé publique très fréquent dans différentes cultures (Affonso et al, 2000). En effet, entre 10% à 15% des mères souffrent d’une symptomatogie dépressive ainsi que l’indiquent Gorman et al. (2004). La prévention de la DP est l’objectif de différents programmes prénatals et postnatals (Dennis, 2005; Lumley et al, 2004). Certains auteurs notent qu’il est difficile d’avoir accès aux femmes à risque après la naissance (Evins et al, 2000; Georgiopoulos et al, 2001). Mais, les femmes fréquentent les centres de santé pendant la grossesse et il est possible d’identifier les cas à risque à partir des symptômes prénataux dépressifs ou somatiques (Riguetti-Veltema et al, 2006); d’autant plus qu’un grand nombre de facteurs de risque de la DP sont présents pendant la grossesse (O’Hara et Gorman, 2004). C’est pourquoi cette étude fut initiée pendant le premier trimestre de la grossesse à partir d’une détection précoce du risque de DP chez n= 529 femmes de classes moyenne et défavorisée, et, cela, au moyen d’un questionnaire validé utilisé à l’aide d’une entrevue. L’étude s’est effectuée dans trois villes : Barcelone, Figueres, et Béziers au cours des années 2003 à 2005. Objectif général : La présente étude vise à évaluer les effets d’un programme prénatal de groupes de rencontre appliqué dans la présente étude chez des couples de classe socioéconomique non favorisée dont les femmes sont considérées comme à risque de dépression postnatale. L’objectif spécifique est de comparer deux groupes de femmes (un groupe expérimental et un groupe témoin) par rapport aux effets du programme prénatal sur les symptômes de dépression postnatale mesurés à partir de la 4ème semaine après l’accouchement avec l’échelle EPDS. Hypothèse: Les femmes participant au programme prénatal de groupe adressé aux couples parentaux, composé de 10 séances hebdomadaires et inspiré d’une orientation psychosomatique présenteront, au moins, un taux de 6% inférieur de cas à risque de dépression postnatale que les femmes qui ne participent pas, et cela, une fois évaluées avec l’échelle EPDS (≥12) 4 semaines après leur accouchement. Matériel et méthode: La présente étude évaluative est basée sur un essai clinique randomisé et longitudinal; il s’étend de la première ou deuxième visite d’échographie pendant la grossesse à un moment situé entre la 4ème et la 12ème semaine postnatale. Les participants à l’étude sont des femmes de classes moyenne et défavorisée identifiées à risque de DP et leur conjoint. Toutes les femmes répondant aux critères d’inclusion à la période du recrutement ont effectué une entrevue de sélection le jour de leur échographie prénatale à l’hôpital (n=529). Seules les femmes indiquant un risque de DP furent sélectionnées (n= 184). Par la suite, elles furent distribuées de manière aléatoire dans deux groupes: expérimental (n=92) et témoin (n=92), au moyen d’un programme informatique appliqué par un statisticien considérant le risque de DP selon le questionnaire validé par Riguetti-Veltema et al. (2006) appliqué à l’aide d’une entrevue. Le programme expérimental consistait en dix séances hebdomadaires de groupe, de deux heures et vingt minutes de durée ; un appel téléphonique entre séances a permis d’assurer la continuité de la participation des sujets. Le groupe témoin a eu accès aux soins habituels. Le programme expérimental commençait à la fin du deuxième trimestre de grossesse et fut appliqué par un médecin et des sages-femmes spécialement préparées au préalable; elles ont dirigé les séances prénatales avec une approche psychosomatique. Les variables associées à la DP (non psychotique) comme la symptomatologie dépressive, le soutien social, le stress et la relation de couple ont été évaluées avant et après la naissance (pré-test/post-test) chez toutes les femmes participantes des deux groupes (GE et GC) utilisant : l’échelle EPDS (Cox et al,1987), le Functional Social Support Questionnaire (Broadhead et al, 1988), l’évaluation du stress de Holmes et Rahe (1967) et, l’échelle d’ajustement dyadique de Spanier (1976). La collecte des données prénatales a eu lieu à l’hôpital, les femmes recevaient les questionnaires à la fin de l’entrevue, les complétaient à la maison et les retournaient au rendez-vous suivant. Les données postnatales ont été envoyées par les femmes utilisant la poste locale. Résultats: Une fois évalués les symptômes dépressifs postnatals avec l’échelle EPDS entre la 4ème et la 12ème semaine postnatale et considérant le risque de DP au point de césure ≥ 12 de l’échelle, le pourcentage de femmes à risque de DP est de 39,34%; globalement, les femmes étudiées présentent un taux élevé de symptomatologie dépressive. Les groupes étant comparables sur toutes les variables prénatales, notons une différence dans l’évaluation postnatale de l’EPDS (≥12) de 11,2% entre le groupe C et le groupe E (45,5% et 34,3%). Et la différence finale entre les moyennes de l’EPDS postnatal est de 1,76 ( =11,10 ±6,05 dans le groupe C et =9,34 ±5,17 dans le groupe E) ; cette différence s’aproche de la limite de la signification (p=0,08). Ceci est dû à un certain nombre de facteurs dont le faible nombre de questionnaires bien complétés à la fin de l’étude. Les femmes du groupe expérimental présentent une diminution significative des symptômes dépressifs (t=2,50 / P= 0,01) comparativement au pré-test et indiquant une amélioration au contraire du groupe témoin sans changement. Les analyses de régression et de covariance montrent que le soutien social postnatal, les symptômes dépressifs prénatals et le stress postnatal ont une relation significative avec les symptômes dépressifs postnatals (P<0,0001 ; P=0.003; P=0.004). La relation du couple n’a pas eu d’impact sur le risque de DP dans la présente étude. Par contre, on constate d’autres résultats secondaires significatifs: moins de naissances prématurées, plus d’accouchements physiologiques et un plus faible taux de somatisations non spécifiques chez les mères du groupe expérimental. Recommandations: Les résultats obtenus nous suggèrent la considération des aspects suivants: 1) il faudrait appliquer les mesures pour détecter le risque de DP à la période prénatale au moment des visites d’échographie dont presque toutes les femmes sont atteignables; il est possible d’utiliser à ce moment un questionnaire de détection validé car, son efficacité semble démontrée; 2) il faudrait intervenir auprès des femmes identifiées à risque à la période prénatale à condition de prolonger le programme préventif après la naissance, tel qu’indiqué par d’autres études et par la demande fréquente des femmes évaluées. L’intervention prénatale de groupe n’est pas suffisante pour éviter le risque de DP chez la totalité des femmes. C’est pourquoi une troisième recommandation consisterait à : 3) ajouter des interventions individuelles pour les cas les plus graves et 4) il paraît nécessaire d’augmenter le soutien social chez des femmes défavorisées vulnérables car cette variable s’est révélée très liée au risque de dépression postnatale.