A three dimensional virtual medical imaging computed tomography suite: Innovation in education

Aims: The Medical Imaging Training Immersive Environment(MITIE) Computed Tomography(CT) system is an innovative virtual reality (VR) platform that allows students to practice a range of CT techniques. The aim of this pilot study was to harvest user feedback about the educational value of teh application and inform future pedagogical development. This presentation explores the use of this technology for skills training. Background: MITIE CT is a 3D VR environment that allows students to position a patient,and set CT technical parameters including IV contrast dose and dose rate. As with VR initiatives in other health disciplines the software mimics clinical practice as much as possible and uses 3D technology to enhance immersion and realism. The software is new and was developed by the Medical Imaging Course Team at a provider University with funding from a Health Workforce Australia 'Simulated Learning Environments' grant Methods: Current third year medical imaging students were provided with additional 1 hour MITIE laboratory tutorials and studnet feedback was collated with regard to educational value and performance. Ethical approval for the project was provided by the university ethics panel Results: This presentation provides qualitative analysis of student perceptions relating to satisfaction, usability and educational value. Students reported high levels of satisfaction and both feedback and assessment results confirmed the application's significance as a pre-clinical tool. There was a clear emerging theme that MITIE could be a useful learning tool that students could access to consolidate their clinical learning, either on campus or during their clinical placement. Conclusion: Student feedback indicates that MITIE CT has a valuable role to play in the clinial skills training for medical imaging students both in the academic and clinical environment. Future work will establish a framework for an appropriate supprting pedagogy that can cross the boundary between the two environments

A virtual environment for medical radiation collaborative learning

Asoftware-based environment was developed to provide practical training in medical radiation principles and safety. The Virtual Radiation Laboratory application allowed students to conduct virtual experiments using simulated diagnostic and radiotherapy X-ray generators. The experiments were designed to teach students about the inverse square law, half value layer and radiation protection measures and utilised genuine clinical and experimental data. Evaluation of the application was conducted in order to ascertain the impact of the software on students’ understanding, satisfaction and collaborative learning skills and also to determine potential further improvements to the software and guidelines for its continued use. Feedback was gathered via an anonymous online survey consisting of a mixture of Likert-style questions and short answer open questions. Student feedback was highly positive with 80 % of students reporting increased understanding of radiation protection principles. Furthermore 72 % enjoyed using the software and 87 %of students felt that the project facilitated collaboration within small groups. The main themes arising in the qualitative feedback comments related to efficiency and effectiveness of teaching, safety of environment, collaboration and realism. Staff and students both report gains in efficiency and effectiveness associated with the virtual experiments. In addition students particularly value the visualisation of ‘‘invisible’’ physical principles and increased opportunity for experimentation and collaborative problembased learning. Similar ventures will benefit from adopting an approach that allows for individual experimentation while visualizing challenging concepts.

Visual openness in urban environments: Measuring visual openness and visibility to natural landscapes in a changing urban landscape in Gold Coast, Australia

The visual characteristics of urban environments have been changing dramatically with the growth of cities around the world. Protection and enhancement of landscape character in urban environments have been one of the challenges for policy makers in addressing sustainable urban growth. Visual openness and enclosure in urban environments are important attributes in perception of visual space which affect the human interaction with physical space and which can be often modified by new developments. Measuring visual openness in urban areas results in more accurate, reliable, and systematic approach to manage and control visual qualities in growing cities. Recent advances in techniques in geographic information systems (GIS) and survey systems make it feasible to measure and quantify this attribute with a high degree of realism and precision. Previous studies in this field do not take full advantage of these improvements. This paper proposes a method to measure the visual openness and enclosure in a changing urban landscape in Australia, on the Gold Coast, by using the improved functionality in GIS. Using this method, visual openness is calculated and described for all publicly accessible areas in the selected study area. A final map is produced which shows the areas with highest visual openness and visibility to natural landscape resources. The output of this research can be used by planners and decision-makers in managing and controlling views in complex urban landscapes. Also, depending on the availability of GIS data, this method can be applied to any region including non-urban landscapes to help planners and policy-makers manage views and visual qualities.

The iconic and the critical

Theodor Adorno was opposed to the cinema because he felt it was too close to reality, and ipso facto an extension of ideological Capital, as he wrote in 1944 in Dialectic of Enlightenment. What troubled Adorno was the iconic nature of cinema – the semiotic category invented by C. S. Peirce where the signifier (sign) does not merely signify, in the arbitrary capacity attested by Saussure, but mimics the formal-visual qualities of its referent. Iconicity finds its perfect example in the film’s ingenuous surface illusion of an unmediated reality – its genealogy (the iconic), since classical antiquity, lay in the Greek term eikōn which meant “image,” to refer to the ancient portrait statues of victorious athletes which were thought to bear a direct similitude with their parent divinities. For the postwar, Hollywood-film spectator, Adorno said, “the world outside is an extension of the film he has just left,” because realism is a precise instrument for the manipulation of the mass spectator by the culture industry, for which the filmic image is an advertisement for the world unedited. Mimesis, or the reproduction of reality, is a “mere reproduction of the economic base.” It is precisely film’s iconicity, then, its “realist aesthetic . . . [that] makes it inseparable from its commodity character.”...

Karl Popper's Philosophy of Science - And the Evolution of the Popperian Worlds

This doctoral thesis in theoretical philosophy is a systematic analysis of Karl Popper's philosophy of science and its relation to his theory of three worlds. The general aim is to study Popper's philosophy of science and to show that Popper's theory of three worlds was a restatement of his earlier positions. As a result, a new reading of Popper's philosophy and development is offered and the theory of three worlds is analysed in a new manner. It is suggested that the theory of three worlds is not purely an ontological theory, but has a profound epistemological motivation. In Part One, Popper's epistemology and philosophy of science is analysed. It is claimed that Popper's thinking was bifurcated: he held two profound positions without noticing the tension between them. Popper adopted the position called the theorist around 1930 and focused on the logical structure of scientific theories. In Logik der Forschung (1935), he attempted to build a logic of science on the grounds that scientific theories may be regarded as universal statements which are not verifiable but can be falsified. Later, Popper emphasized another position, called here the processionalist. Popper focused on the study of science as a process and held that a) philosophy of science should study the growth of knowledge and that b) all cognitive processes are constitutive. Moreover, the constitutive idea that we see the world in the searchlight of our theories was combined with the biological insight that knowledge grows by trial and error. In Part Two, the theory of three worlds is analysed systematically. The theory is discussed as a cluster of theories which originate from Popper's attempt to solve some internal problems in his thinking. Popper adhered to realism and wished to reconcile the theorist and the processionalist. He also stressed the real and active nature of the human mind, and the possibility of objective knowledge. Finally, he wished to create a scientific world view.

Kansallista vai modernia : Taidegrafiikka osana 1930-luvun taidejärjestelmää

The theme of this doctoral thesis is the Finnish printmaking in the years 1930-1939. During this decade, there were approximately 100 artists making prints in Finland. Indeed, the period was an especially important one for printmaking. Associations for printmakers were founded in Helsinki and Turku, training in the field was launched, and the number of printmaking exhibitions increased considerably. Through their national organisations, Finnish printmakers participated in many exhibitions abroad, interaction with Nordic printmakers being especially intense. Thus, a firm basis for post-war developments was created. However, printmakers' activity- which had continued throughout the 1930s - declined notably after the Winter War broke out in the autumn of 1939. As a result, the period 1930-1939 forms a coherent and distinct unity in Finnish printmaking history. The study consists of two parts: the main text and an appendix in which the production of each printmaking artist active in the 1930s is examined separately. The study also includes a comprehensive list of the prints made in the course of the decade. One of the central themes is the printmakers' relationship to "Finnish nationalist" art and concepts of art in the 1930s. I analyse the various manifestations of this way of thinking in the visual arts of the period. Finnish fine art in the period between the world wars has usually been characterised as conservative, introverted and spiritually isolated from the modern European trends of the time. On the basis of this study, such a view is too simple. Many artists and printmakers adopted a modernistic notion of art that approached the newest in European modernism, including such trends as avant-garde classicism and general European new Objective Realism (Die neue Sachlichkeit). On the other hand, choosing Finnish nationalist motifs did not necessarily mean that the artist was opposed to modernism: modernist artists could still be interested in national themes. The relationship of 1930s printmaking to the world of nationalist ideas is examined in this doctoral thesis from several perspectives. Towards the end of the main text, I examine the issue from the point of view of selected artists. Another feature that emerged during the study and turned out to be surprisingly widespread was the close relationship of many artists to religious, theosophical and pantheistic views. I deal with this issue in greater detail through a few representative printmakers.

History, Transfer, Politics : Five studies on the legacy of Uppsala philosophy

The Uppsala school of Axel Hägerström can be said to have been the last genuinely Swedish philosophical movement. On the other hand, the Swedish analytic tradition is often said to have its roots in Hägerström s thought. This work examines the transformation from Uppsala philosophy to analytic philosophy from an actor-based historical perspective. The aim is to describe how a group of younger scholars (Ingemar Hedenius, Konrad Marc-Wogau, Anders Wedberg, Alf Ross, Herbert Tingsten, Gunnar Myrdal) colonised the legacy of Hägerström and Uppsala philosophy, and faced the challenges they met in trying to reconcile this legacy with the changing philosophical and political currents of the 1930s and 40s. Following Quentin Skinner, the texts are analysed as moves or speech acts in a particular historical context. The thesis consists of five previously published case studies and an introduction. The first study describes how the image of Hägerström as the father of the Swedish analytic tradition was created by a particular faction of younger Uppsala philosophers who (re-) presented the Hägerströmian philosophy as a parallel movement to logical empiricism. The second study examines the confrontations between Uppsala philosophy and logical empiricism in both the editorial board and in the pages of Sweden s leading philosophical journal Theoria. The third study focuses on how the younger generation redescribed Hägerströmian legal philosophical ideas (Scandinavian Legal Realism), while the fourth study discusses how they responded to the accusations of a connection between Hägerström s value nihilistic theory and totalitarianism. Finally, the fifth study examines how the Swedish social scientist and Social Democratic intellectual Gunnar Myrdal tried to reconcile value nihilism with a strong political programme for social reform. The contribution of this thesis to the field consists mainly in a re-evaluation of the role of Uppsala philosophy in the history of Swedish philosophy. From this perspective the Uppsala School was less a collection of certain definite philosophical ideas than an intellectual legacy that was the subject of fierce struggles. Its theories and ideas were redescribed in various ways by individual actors with different philosophical and political intentions.

Wipert von Blücher und Finnland : Alternativpolitik und Diplomatie im 'Dritten Reich'

This dissertation explores the role of the German minister to Helsinki, Wipert von Blücher (1883-1963), within the German-Finnish relations of the late 1930s and the Second World War. Blücher was a key figure – and certainly one of the constants – within German Finland policy and the complex international diplomacy surrounding Finland. Despite representing Hitler’s Germany, he was not a National Socialist in the narrower sense of the term, but a conservative civil servant in the Wilhelmine tradition of the German foreign service. Along with a significant number of career diplomats, Blücher attempted to restrict National Socialist influence on the exercise of German foreign policy, whilst successfully negotiating a modus vivendi with the new regime. The study of his political biography in the Third Reich hence provides a highly representative example of how the traditional élites of Germany were caught in an cycle of conformity and, albeit tacit, opposition. Above all, however, the biographical study of Blücher and his behaviour offers an hitherto unexplored approach to the history of the German-Finnish relations. His unusually long tenure in Helsinki covered the period leading up to the so-called Winter War, which left Blücher severely distraught by Berlin’s effectively pro-Soviet neutrality and brought him close to resigning his post. It further extended to the German-Finnish rapprochement of 1940/41 and the military cooperation of both countries from mid-1941 to 1944. Throughout, Blücher developed a diverse and ambitious set of policy schemes, largely rooted in the tradition of Wilhelmine foreign policy. In their moderation and commonsensical realism, his designs – indeed his entire conception of foreign policy – clashed with the foreign political and ideological premises of the National Socialist regime. In its theoretical grounding, the analysis of Blücher’s political schemes is built on the concept of alternative policy and indebted to A.J.P. Taylor’s definition of dissent in foreign policy. It furthermore rests upon the assumption, introduced by Wolfgang Michalka, that National Socialist foreign policy was dominated by a plurality of rival conceptions, players, and institutions competing for Hitler’s favour (‘Konzeptionen-Pluralismus’). Although primarily a study in the history of international relations, my research has substantially benefited from more recent developments within cultural history, particularly research on nobility and élites, and the renewed focus on autobiography and conceptions of the self. On an abstract level, the thesis touches upon some of the basic components of German politics, political culture, and foreign policy in the first half of the 20th century: national belonging and conflicting loyalties, self-perception and representation, élites and their management of power, the modern history of German conservatism, the nature and practice of diplomacy, and, finally, the intricate relationship between the ethics of the professional civil service and absolute moral principles. Against this backdrop, the examination of Blücher’s role both within Finnish politics and the foreign policy of the Third Reich highlights the biographical dimension of the German-Finnish relationships, while fathoming the determinants of individual human agency in the process.

Olen maa johon tahdot : Timo K. Mukan maailmankuvan poetiikkaa

The dissertation deals with the prose texts of the Finnish writer Timo K. Mukka, renowned for his depictions of his native Lapland. This research concerns the creation of world view in Mukka s prose, which is approached by studying what Mikhail Bakhtin calls generic change. Such genre change is the most characteristic feature of Mukka s prose. His prose is permeated with two genres in particular and changes between them: the ballad-like, archaistic and romantic prose-poem style and naturalistic, even grotesque expressions. In addition, these genres are associated with sublime and grotesque styles so that generic change tends to involve also stylistic changes in Mukka s prose. This study probes the tension-filled interrelationships between the ballad and naturalistic prose by examining the discourse of Mukka s characters. It is shown that these characters invariably find themselves in what Bakhtin calls the chronotope of the threshold; that is, the plots of Mukka s novels and short stories depict situations in which the characters are faced with decisions and deeds that will profoundly impact their lives. The discourse of the threshold affects the characters speech by filling it with dialogical dimensions. This makes their communication ethically loaded and polyphonic. This study is based on Mikhail Bakhtin s theory of the novel and international Bakhtin s studies. I also take into consideration the theoretical developments of Bakhtin s work; for example, the concept of ressentiment, adapted from the Bakhtin scholar Michel André Bernstein, plays an important role. In order to explicate on the psychology of Mukka s characters such as melancholy, abjection, sadism, and taboo I use the concepts familiar from Freudian psychoanalysis. The corpus of my research consists of the following texts: the long prose texts Maa on syntinen laulu. Balladi (1964), Tabu (1965), Täältä jostakin. Romaani (1965), Laulu Sipirjan lapsista. Romaani (1966), Ja kesän heinä kuolee. Kertomus sairaudesta (1968) ja Kyyhky ja unikko (1970) and the short story collections Koiran kuolema (1967) ja Lumen pelko (1970), and with Tabu published short story Sankarihymni , the short story Katkelma laajemmasta laulelmasta from the collection Rakastaa: Kaksitoista novellia rakkaudesta (1965) and also the short stories which were published in various Finnish journals: Yöt (1965), Liisa (1967), Tyttö (1967) ja Näin hetki sitten ketun (1970). I pay particular attention to the novel Maa on syntinen laulu, because it expresses the generic change characteristic of Mukka s world view in a specifically clear and lively way. The dissertation is in Finnish. Key words: Timo K. Mukka, world view, genre change, ballad, naturalism, grotesque realism, Mikhail Bakhtin, dialogism, polyphony, chronotope, sublime, grotesque, ressentiment, Sigmund Freud, melancholy, taboo, abject, sadism, reduced laughter, modern parody.

Le naturalisme finlandais : Une conception entropique du quotidien

Le naturalisme finlandais. Une conception entropique du quotidien. Finnish Naturalism. An Entropic Conception of Everyday Life. Nineteenth century naturalism was a strikingly international literary movement. After emerging in France in the 1870s, it spread all over Europe including young, small nations with a relatively recent literary tradition, such as Finland. This thesis surveys the role and influence of French naturalism on the Finnish literature of the 1880s and 1890s. On the basis of a selection of works of six Finnish authors (Juhani Aho, Minna Canth, Kauppis-Heikki, Teuvo Pakkala, Ina Lange and Karl August Tavaststjerna), the study establishes a view of the main features of Finnish naturalism in comparison with that of French authors, such as Zola, Maupassant and Flaubert. The study s methodological framework is genre theory: even though naturalist writers insisted on a transparent description of reality, naturalist texts are firmly rooted in general generic categories with definable relations and constants on which European novels impose variations. By means of two key concepts, entropy and everyday life , this thesis establishes the parameters of the naturalist genre. At the heart of the naturalist novel is a movement in the direction of disintegration and confusion, from order to disorder, from illusion to disillusion. This entropic vision is merged into the representation of everyday life, focusing on socially mediocre characters and discovering their miseries in all their banality and daily grayness. By using Mikhail Bakhtin s idea of literary genres as a means of understanding experience, this thesis suggests that everyday life is an ideological core of naturalist literature that determines not only its thematic but also generic distinctions: with relation to other genres, such as to Balzac s realism, naturalism appears primarily to be a banalization of everyday life. In idyllic genres, everyday life can be represented by means of sublimation, but a naturalist novel establishes a distressing, negative everyday life and thus strives to take a critical view of the modern society. Beside the central themes, the study surveys the generic blends in naturalism. The thesis analyzes how the coalition of naturalism and the melodramatic mode in the work of Minna Canth serves naturalisms ambition to discover the unconscious instincts underlying daily realities, and how the symbolic mode in the work of Juhani Aho duplicates the semantic level of the apparently insignificant, everyday naturalist details. The study compares the naturalist novel to the ideological novel (roman à these) and surveys the central dilemma of naturalism, the confrontation between the optimistic belief in social reform and the pessimistic theory of determinism. The thesis proposes that the naturalist novel s contribution to social reform lies in its shock effect. By means of representing the unpleasant truth the entropy of everyday life it aims to scandalize the reader and make him aware of the harsh realities that might apply also to him.

Scheffleriläinen rationaalisuus ja kasvatustodellisuuden monikerroksisuus : Jännitteitä ja ratkaisuja Israel Schefflerin kasvatusfilosofiassa

The study is a philosophical analysis of Israel Scheffler’s philosophy of education, focusing on three crucial conceptions in his philosophy: the conception of rationality, the conception of human nature, and the conception of reality. The interrelations of these three concepts as well as their relations to educational theorizing are analysed and elaborated. A conceptual problem concerning Scheffler’s ideal of rationality derives from Scheffler’s supposition of the strong analogy between science education and moral education in terms of the ideal of rationality. This analogy is argued to be conceptually problematic, since the interconnections of rationality, objectivity, and truth, appear to differ from each other in the realms of ethics and science, given the presuppositions of ontological realism and ethical naturalism, to which Scheffler explicitly subscribes. This study considers two philosophical alternatives for solving this problem. The first alternative relates the analogy to the normative concept of personhood deriving from the teleological understanding of human nature. Nevertheless, this position turns out to be problematic for Scheffler, since he rejects all teleological thinking in his philosophy. The problem can be solved, as it is argued, by limiting Scheffler’s rejection of teleology – in light of his philosophical outlook on the whole – in a manner that allows a modest version of a teleological conception of human nature. The second alternative, based especially on Scheffler’s later contributions, is to suggest that reality is actually more complex and manifold than it appears to be in light of a contemporary naturalist worldview. This idea of plurealism – Scheffler’s synthesis of pluralism and realism – is represented especially in Scheffler’s contributions related to his debate with Nelson Goodman dealing with both constructivism and realism. The idea of plurealism is not only related to the ethics-science-distinction, but is more widely related to the relationship between ontological realism and the incommensurable systems of description in diverse realms of human understanding. The Scheffler-Goodman debate is also analysed in relation to the contemporary constructivism-realism debate in educational philosophy. In terms of educational questions, Scheffler’s plurealism is argued as offering a fruitful perspective. Scheffler’s philosophy of education can be interpreted as searching for solutions to the problems deriving from the tension between the tradition of analytical philosophy and the complexity and multiplicity of educational reality. The complexity of reality combined with the supposition of the limitedness of human knowledge does not lead Scheffler to relativism or particularism, but, in contrast, Schefflerian formulations of rationality and objectivity preserve the possibility for critical inquiry in all realms of educational reality. In light of this study, Scheffler’s philosophy of education provides an exceptional example of combining ontological realism, epistemological fallibilism, and the defence of the ideal of rationality, combined with a wide-ranging understanding of educational reality.

Konstruktiivisen linjakkuuden perusteita etsimässä : Systemaattinen analyysi John Biggsin esittämistä yliopisto-opetuksen lähtökohdista

The aim of this study is to explore by systematic textual analysis the crucial conceptions of constructive alignment and to reconstruct the concept of constructive alignment and examine the relation between conceptual relationships in John Biggs’s texts. In this study, I have also analyzed the presuppositions of the concept of constructive alignment and its possible implications. The research material includes Biggs’s (1996b; 2003) article entitled Enhancing Teaching through Constructive Alignment and book entitled Teaching for Quality Learning at University. The primary purpose of the systematic textual analysis is to reconstruct concepts and gain access to a new or more profound understanding of the concepts. The main purpose of the constructive alignment is to design a teaching system that supports and encourages students to adopt a deep approach learning. At the center of the constructive alignment are two concepts: constructivism in learning and alignment in teaching. A tension was detected between these concepts. Biggs assumes that students’ learning activities are primed by the teaching. Because of this it is not important what the teacher does. At the same time he emphasizes that teaching interacts with learning. The teacher’s task is to support student’s appropriate learning activities. On the basis of the analysis, I conclude these conceptions are not mutually exclusive. Interaction between teaching and learning has an effect on student’s learning activities. The most essential benefit of the model of constructive alignment is that Biggs brings together and considers teaching at the same level with learning. A weakness of Biggs’s model relates to the theoretical basis and positions of the concept of constructive alignment. There are some conflicts between conceptions of epistemology in Biggs’s texts. In addition, Biggs writes about constructivism also as conceptions of epistemology, but doesn’t consider implications of that position or what follows or doesn’t follow from that commitment. On the basis of the analysis, I suggest that constructivism refers in Biggs’s texts rather to constructivism in learning than philosophical constructivism. In light of this study, constructive alignment doesn´t lead to philosophical constructivism. That’s why constructive alignment stays out of idealism. Biggs’s way of thinking about teachers possibility to confronting students’ misconceptions and evaluate and assess students’ constructions support a realist purpose in terms of philosophical stance. Realism does not drift toward general problems of relativism, like lack of criteria for assessing or evaluate these constructions.

Debunking Weak Sustainable Consumption : Towards Strong Sustainable Consumption Governance

Achieving sustainable consumption patterns is a crucial step on the way towards sustainability. The scientific knowledge used to decide which priorities to set and how to enforce them has to converge with societal, political, and economic initiatives on various levels: from individual household decision-making to agreements and commitments in global policy processes. The aim of this thesis is to draw a comprehensive and systematic picture of sustainable consumption and to do this it develops the concept of Strong Sustainable Consumption Governance. In this concept, consumption is understood as resource consumption. This includes consumption by industries, public consumption, and household consumption. Next to the availability of resources (including the available sink capacity of the ecosystem) and their use and distribution among the Earth’s population, the thesis also considers their contribution to human well-being. This implies giving specific attention to the levels and patterns of consumption. Methods: The thesis introduces the terminology and various concepts of Sustainable Consumption and of Governance. It briefly elaborates on the methodology of Critical Realism and its potential for analysing Sustainable Consumption. It describes the various methods on which the research is based and sets out the political implications a governance approach towards Strong Sustainable Consumption may have. Two models are developed: one for the assessment of the environmental relevance of consumption activities, another to identify the influences of globalisation on the determinants of consumption opportunities. Results: One of the major challenges for Strong Sustainable Consumption is that it is not in line with the current political mainstream: that is, the belief that economic growth can cure all our problems. So, the proponents have to battle against a strong headwind. Their motivation however is the conviction that there is no alternative. Efforts have to be taken on multiple levels by multiple actors. And all of them are needed as they constitute the individual strings that together make up the rope. However, everyone must ensure that they are pulling in the same direction. It might be useful to apply a carrot and stick strategy to stimulate public debate. The stick in this case is to create a sense of urgency. The carrot would be to articulate better the message to the public that a shrinking of the economy is not as much of a disaster as mainstream economics tends to suggest. In parallel to this it is necessary to demand that governments take responsibility for governance. The dominant strategy is still information provision. But there is ample evidence that hard policies like regulatory instruments and economic instruments are most effective. As for Civil Society Organizations it is recommended that they overcome the habit of promoting Sustainable (in fact green) Consumption by using marketing strategies and instead foster public debate in values and well-being. This includes appreciating the potential of social innovation. A countless number of such initiatives are on the way but their potential is still insufficiently explored. Beyond the question of how to multiply such approaches, it is also necessary to establish political macro structures to foster them.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.