Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

Magnetic interaction in exchange-biased bilayers: a first-order reversal curve analysis

The distributions of coercivities and magnetic interactions in a set of polycrystalline Ni(0.8)Fe(0.2)/FeMn bilayers have been determined using the first-order reversal curve (FORC) formalism. The thickness of the permalloy (Py) film was fixed at 10 nm (nominal), while that of the FeMn film varied within the range 0-20 nm. The FORC diagrams of each bilayer displayed two clearly distinguishable regions. The main region was generated by Py particles whose coercivities were enhanced in comparison with those in which the FeMn film was absent (sample O). The minor region was produced by Py particles with coercivities similar to or slightly higher than those of particles in the Py film of sample O. Each sample presented two distributions of interaction fields, one for each region, and both were centred slightly below the exchange-bias field, thus indicating a prevalence of magnetizing interactions. These results are consistent with a grain size distribution in the Py layer and the presence of uncompensated antiferromagnetic moments.

Interparticle Interactions Effects on the Magnetic Order in Surface of Fe(3)O(4) Nanoparticles

We report interparticle interactions effects on the magnetic structure of the surface region in Fe(3)O(4) nanoparticles. For that, we have studied a desirable system composed by Fe(3)O(4) nanoparticles with (d) = 9.3 nm and a narrow size distribution. These particles present an interesting morphology constituted by a crystalline core and a broad (similar to 50% vol.) disordered superficial shell. Two samples were prepared with distinct concentrations of the particles: weakly-interacting particles dispersed in a polymer and strongly-dipolar-interacting particles in a powder sample. M(H, T) measurements clearly show that strong dipolar interparticle interaction modifies the magnetic structure of the structurally disordered superficial shell. Consequently, we have observed drastically distinct thermal behaviours of magnetization and susceptibility comparing weakly- and strongly-interacting samples for the temperature range 2 K < T < 300 K. We have also observed a temperature-field dependence of the hysteresis loops of the dispersed sample that is not observed in the hysteresis loops of the powder one.

Fast long-range connections in transportation networks

Multidimensional scaling is applied in order to visualize an analogue of the small-world effect implied by edges having different displacement velocities in transportation networks. Our findings are illustrated for two real-world systems, namely the London urban network (streets and underground) and the US highway network enhanced by some of the main US airlines routes. We also show that the travel time in these two networks is drastically changed by attacks targeting the edges with large displacement velocities. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Third-order nonlinearity of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass

The third-order optical susceptibility and dispersion of the linear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass were measured in the wavelength range between 400 and 1940 nm by using the spectrally resolved femtosecond Maker fringes technique. The nonlinear refractive index obtained from the third-order susceptibility was found to be five times higher than that of silica, indicating that Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass is a potential candidate to be used as the base component for the fabrication of photonic devices. For comparison purposes, the Z-scan technique was also employed to obtain the values of the nonlinear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass at several wavelengths, and the values obtained using the two techniques agree to within 15%.

Higher order ionospheric effects in GNSS positioning in the European region

After removal of the Selective Availability in 2000, the ionosphere became the dominant error source for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), especially for the high-accuracy (cm-mm) demanding applications like the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning.The common practice of eliminating the ionospheric error, e. g. by the ionosphere free (IF) observable, which is a linear combination of observables on two frequencies such as GPS L1 and L2, accounts for about 99% of the total ionospheric effect, known as the first order ionospheric effect (Ion1). The remaining 1% residual range errors (RREs) in the IF observable are due to the higher - second and third, order ionospheric effects, Ion2 and Ion3, respectively. Both terms are related with the electron content along the signal path; moreover Ion2 term is associated with the influence of the geomagnetic field on the ionospheric refractive index and Ion3 with the ray bending effect of the ionosphere, which can cause significant deviation in the ray trajectory (due to strong electron density gradients in the ionosphere) such that the error contribution of Ion3 can exceed that of Ion2 (Kim and Tinin, 2007).The higher order error terms do not cancel out in the (first order) ionospherically corrected observable and as such, when not accounted for, they can degrade the accuracy of GNSS positioning, depending on the level of the solar activity and geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions (Hoque and Jakowski, 2007). Simulation results from early 1990s show that Ion2 and Ion3 would contribute to the ionospheric error budget by less than 1% of the Ion1 term at GPS frequencies (Datta-Barua et al., 2008). Although the IF observable may provide sufficient accuracy for most GNSS applications, Ion2 and Ion3 need to be considered for higher accuracy demanding applications especially at times of higher solar activity.This paper investigates the higher order ionospheric effects (Ion2 and Ion3, however excluding the ray bending effects associated with Ion3) in the European region in the GNSS positioning considering the precise point positioning (PPP) method. For this purpose observations from four European stations were considered. These observations were taken in four time intervals corresponding to various geophysical conditions: the active and quiet periods of the solar cycle, 2001 and 2006, respectively, excluding the effects of disturbances in the geomagnetic field (i.e. geomagnetic storms), as well as the years of 2001 and 2003, this time including the impact of geomagnetic disturbances. The program RINEX_HO (Marques et al., 2011) was used to calculate the magnitudes of Ion2 and Ion3 on the range measurements as well as the total electron content (TEC) observed on each receiver-satellite link. The program also corrects the GPS observation files for Ion2 and Ion3; thereafter it is possible to perform PPP with both the original and corrected GPS observation files to analyze the impact of the higher order ionospheric error terms excluding the ray bending effect which may become significant especially at low elevation angles (Ioannides and Strangeways, 2002) on the estimated station coordinates.

No relationship found between point heteroplasmy in mitochondrial DNA control region and age range, sex and haplogroup in human hairs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Resonant excitation of Mn local vibrational modes in the higher order Raman spectra of nanocrystalline Ga(1-x)Mn(x)N films

The effect of manganese on the vibrational properties of Ga(1-x)Mn(x)N (0 <= x <= 0.18) films has been investigated by Raman scattering using 488.0 and 632.8 nm photon excitations. The first-order transverse and longitudinal optical GaN vibrational bands were observed in the whole composition range using both excitations, while the corresponding overtones, as well as a prominent peak located in 1238 cm(-1) (153.5 meV) were only observed in the Mn-containing films under 488.0 nm excitation. We propose that the peak observed at 1238 cm(-1) is due to resonant Mn local vibrational modes, the excitation process being related to electronic transitions involving the Mn acceptor band.

Assessment of a high-order finite difference upwind scheme for the simulation of convection-diffusion problems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cosmic acceleration from second order gauge gravity

We construct a phenomenological theory of gravitation based on a second order gauge formulation for the Lorentz group. The model presents a long-range modification for the gravitational field leading to a cosmological model provided with an accelerated expansion at recent times. We estimate the model parameters using observational data and verify that our estimative for the age of the Universe is of the same magnitude than the one predicted by the standard model. The transition from the decelerated expansion regime to the accelerated one occurs recently (at similar to 9.3 Gyr).

Observation of long-range, near-side angular correlations in proton-proton collisions at the LHC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Contribution of structural order-disorder to the room-temperature photoluminescence of lead zirconate titanate powders

Intense and broad visible photoluminescent (PL) band was observed at room temperature in structurally disordered PbZr0.53Ti0.47O3 powders. The lead zirconate titanate PbZr0.53Ti0.47O3 powders prepared by the polymeric precursor method and heat treated at different temperatures were structurally characterized at long range by means of X-ray diffraction. The PL was measured at room temperature samples heat treated at different temperatures. Experimental measurements and quantum-mechanical calculations showed that the high structural order and the high structural disorder in PbZr0.53Ti0.47O3 lattice are not favorable to the intense PL emission. Only samples containing simultaneous structural order and disorder in their lattice present the intense visible PL emission at room temperature. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Local order around rare earth ions during the devitrification of oxyfluoride glasses

Erbium L-3-edge extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements were performed on rare earth doped fluorosilicate and fluoroborate glasses and glass ceramics. The well known nucleating effects of erbium ions for the crystallization of cubic lead fluoride (based on x-ray diffraction measurements) and the fact that the rare earth ions are present in the crystalline phase (as indicated by Er3+ emission spectra) seem in contradiction with the present EXAFS analysis, which indicates a lack of medium range structural ordering around the Er3+ ions and suggests that the lead fluoride crystallization does not occur in the nearest neighbor distance of the rare earth ion. Molecular dynamics simulations of the devitrification process of a lead fluoride glass doped with Er3+ ions were performed, and results indicate that Er3+ ions lower the devitrification temperature of PbF2, in good agreement with the experimental results. The genuine role of Er3+ ions in the devitrification process of PbF2 has been investigated. Although Er3+ ions could indeed act as seeds for crystallization, as experiments suggest, molecular dynamics simulation results corroborate the experimental EXAFS observation that the devitrification does not occur at its nearest neighbor distance. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.