853 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
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Investigation of high pressure pretreatment process for gold leaching is the objective of the present master's thesis. The gold ores and concentrates which cannot be easily treated by leaching process are called "refractory". These types of ores or concentrates often have high content of sulfur and arsenic that renders the precious metal inaccessible to the leaching agents. Since the refractory ores in gold manufacturing industry take a considerable share, the pressure oxidation method (autoclave method) is considered as one of the possible ways to overcome the related problems. Mathematical modeling is the main approach in this thesis which was used for investigation of high pressure oxidation process. For this task, available information from literature concerning this phenomenon, including chemistry, mass transfer and kinetics, reaction conditions, applied apparatus and application, was collected and studied. The modeling part includes investigation of pyrite oxidation kinetics in order to create a descriptive mathematical model. The following major steps are completed: creation of process model by using the available knowledge; estimation of unknown parameters and determination of goodness of the fit; study of the reliability of the model and its parameters.
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Finanssiala on kokonaisuutena suurten muutosten ja vaatimusten kohteena. Toisaalta globalisaatio ja kehittyvä tietotalous antavat toiminnalle suuria mahdollisuuksia, toisaalta finanssikriisin jälkeistä aikaa on leimannut perinteisen korkokatteen supistuminen ja uusien tulonlähteiden etsintä. Entistä tehokkaampi tietojenkäsittely ja asiakastietojen hyväksikäyttö luo edellytyksiä toimia alalla entistä tehokkaammin ja ohjata yrityksen päätöksentekoa tiedolla. Tämän pro gradu –tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia tiedon roolia OP-Pohjola-ryhmän strategiaprosessissa ja luoda malli, jolla liiketoimintatietoa pystyttäisi käyttämään tehokkaammin ja tarkoituksenmukaisemmin hyväksi strategiatyössä. Tutkielma toteutettiin tapaustutkimuksena ja empiirinen aineisto hankittiin haastattelemalla organisaation strategiaprosessiin osallistuvia tahoja. Tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan OP-Pohjola-ryhmällä ei ole määrämuotoista tapaa käyttää hyväksi liiketoimintatiedonhallinnan tuottamaa dataa. Strategiaprosessin päätöksenteossa merkittävä rooli on yksilöiden toisaalta omista organisaatioista tuottaman liiketoimintatiedon ja toisaalta yksilöiden hiljaisen tiedon varassa. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena luotiin malli, jolla strategiaprosessiin tuotetaan tietoa määrämuotoisen ja toistettavan prosessin kautta.
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The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) has raised interest towards novel fluidised bed (FB) energy applications. In these applications, limestone can be utilized for S02 and/or CO2 capture. The conditions in the new applications differ from the traditional atmospheric and pressurised circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion conditions in which the limestone is successfully used for SO2 capture. In this work, a detailed physical single particle model with a description of the mass and energy transfer inside the particle for limestone was developed. The novelty of this model was to take into account the simultaneous reactions, changing conditions, and the effect of advection. Especially, the capability to study the cyclic behaviour of limestone on both sides of the calcination-carbonation equilibrium curve is important in the novel conditions. The significances of including advection or assuming diffusion control were studied in calcination. Especially, the effect of advection in calcination reaction in the novel combustion atmosphere was shown. The model was tested against experimental data; sulphur capture was studied in a laboratory reactor in different fluidised bed conditions. Different Conversion levels and sulphation patterns were examined in different atmospheres for one limestone type. The Conversion curves were well predicted with the model, and the mechanisms leading to the Conversion patterns were explained with the model simulations. In this work, it was also evaluated whether the transient environment has an effect on the limestone behaviour compared to the averaged conditions and in which conditions the effect is the largest. The difference between the averaged and transient conditions was notable only in the conditions which were close to the calcination-carbonation equilibrium curve. The results of this study suggest that the development of a simplified particle model requires a proper understanding of physical and chemical processes taking place in the particle during the reactions. The results of the study will be required when analysing complex limestone reaction phenomena or when developing the description of limestone behaviour in comprehensive 3D process models. In order to transfer the experimental observations to furnace conditions, the relevant mechanisms that take place need to be understood before the important ones can be selected for 3D process model. This study revealed the sulphur capture behaviour under transient oxy-fuel conditions, which is important when the oxy-fuel CFB process and process model are developed.
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The main objective of the study was to form a strategic process model and project management tool to help IFRS change implementation projects in the future. These research results were designed based on the theoretical framework of Total Quality Management and leaning on the facts that were collected during the empirical case study of IAS 17 change. The us-age of the process oriented approach in IFRS standard change implementation after the initial IFRS implementation is rationalized with the following arguments: 1) well designed process tools lead to optimization of resources 2) With the help of process stages and related tasks it is easy to ensure the efficient way of working and managing the project as well as make sure to include all necessary stakeholders to the change process. This research is following the qualitative approach and the analysis is in describing format. The first part of the study is a literature review and the latter part has been conducted as a case study. The data has been col-lected in the case company with interviews and observation. The main findings are a process model for IFRS standard change process and a check-list formatted management tool for up-coming IFRS standard change projects. The process flow follows the main cornerstones in IASB’s standard setting process and the management tool has been divided to stages accordingly.
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This thesis studies the possibility to use lean tools and methods in a quotation process which is carried out in an office environment. The aim of the study was to find out and test the relevant lean tools and methods which can help to balance and standardize the quotation process, and reduce the variance in quotation lead times and in quality. Seminal works, researches and guide books related to the topic were used as the basis for the theory development. Based on the literature review and the case company’s own lean experience, the applicable lean tools and methods were selected to be tested by a sales support team. Leveling production, by product categorization and value stream mapping, was a key method to be used to balance the quotation process. 5S method was started concurrently for standardizing the work. Results of the testing period showed that lean tools and methods are applicable in office process and selected tools and methods helped to balance and standardize the quotation process. Case company’s sales support team decided to implement new lean based quotation process model.
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The importance of package design as a marketing tool is growing as the competition in retail environment increases. However, there is a lack of studies on how each element of package design affects consumer decisions in different countries. The objective of this thesis is to study the role of package design to Japanese consumers. The research was conducted through an experiment with a sample of 37 Japanese female participants. They were divided into two groups and were given different tasks: one group had to choose a chocolate for themselves, and the other for a group of friends. The participants were presented with 15 different Finnish chocolate boxes to choose from. The qualitative data was gathered through observation and semi-structured interviews. In addition, data from questionnaires was quantified and all the data was triangulated. The empirical results suggest that visual elements strongly affect the decision making of Japanese consumers. Image was the most important element which acted as both, a visual and an informational aspect in the experiment. Informational elements on the other hand have little effect, especially when the context is written in a foreign language. However, informational elements affected participants who were choosing chocolates for a group of friends. A unique finding was the importance of kawaii (cuteness) to Japanese consumers.
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Yhteistyö yli organisaatiorajojen, huolellinen lähtötietojen selvittäminen, täsmällinen tehtävien suorittaminen sekä organisaatiossa olevan tiedon laaja hyödyntäminen ovat projektin onnistumisen kulmakiviä. Usein kuitenkin projekti hautautuu omaan arkeensa keskittyen liikaa tehtävien suorittamiseen, eikä luo katseita ympäristöönsä. Tässä työssä tavoitteena on ollut projekti- ja päätöksentekomallin luominen, joka ohjaa projektia heti alkumetreistä jo ennen kuin päätöstä sen toteuttamisesta on tehty. Tarkoituksena on myös ohjata yhteistyöhön yli organisaatiorajojen ja kaikkien näkökulmien huomioonottamiseen ennen projektin aloituspäätöstä. Malli luotiin konstruktiivisena tapaustutkimuksena ja se nojaa kirjallisuuteen melko laaja-alaisesti. Koska malli tulee ohjaamaan asiakasräätälöintejä toteuttavan organisaation projekteja, viitekehystä rajaavat räätälöinti, tuotehallinta ja ennen kaikkia projektin johtaminen. Tutkimusta varten on tutustuttu kohdeyrityksen prosesseihin ja liitetty konstruktio osaksi näitä prosesseja. Teorian pohjalle luotu konstruktio ratkaisee tutkimusongelman määrittämällä toimintamallin räätälöintiprojektien arvonmääritykseen ja toteutukseen. Se tuo järjestelmällisyyttä projektiehdokkaiden arvon määrittämiseen sekä johdonmukaistaa päätöksentekoprosessia ja projektin toteutusta ottaen huomioon suorien hyötyjen lisäksi epäsuorat hyödyt ja vaikutukset tuotetarjoomaan.
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The aim of this Master’s thesis is to find a method for classifying spare part criticality in the case company. Several approaches exist for criticality classification of spare parts. The practical problem in this thesis is the lack of a generic analysis method for classifying spare parts of proprietary equipment of the case company. In order to find a classification method, a literature review of various analysis methods is required. The requirements of the case company also have to be recognized. This is achieved by consulting professionals in the company. The literature review states that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with decision tree models is a common method for classifying spare parts in academic literature. Most of the literature discusses spare part criticality in stock holding perspective. This is relevant perspective also for a customer orientated original equipment manufacturer (OEM), as the case company. A decision tree model is developed for classifying spare parts. The decision tree classifies spare parts into five criticality classes according to five criteria. The criteria are: safety risk, availability risk, functional criticality, predictability of failure and probability of failure. The criticality classes describe the level of criticality from non-critical to highly critical. The method is verified for classifying spare parts of a full deposit stripping machine. The classification can be utilized as a generic model for recognizing critical spare parts of other similar equipment, according to which spare part recommendations can be created. Purchase price of an item and equipment criticality were found to have no effect on spare part criticality in this context. Decision tree is recognized as the most suitable method for classifying spare part criticality in the company.
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years 8 months) and 24 older (M == 7 years 4 months) children. A Monitoring Process Model (MPM) was developed and tested in order to ascertain at which component process ofthe MPM age differences would emerge. The MPM had four components: (1) assessment; (2) evaluation; (3) planning; and (4) behavioural control. The MPM was assessed directly using a referential communication task in which the children were asked to make a series of five Lego buildings (a baseline condition and one building for each MPM component). Children listened to instructions from one experimenter while a second experimenter in the room (a confederate) intetjected varying levels ofverbal feedback in order to assist the children and control the component ofthe MPM. This design allowed us to determine at which "stage" ofprocessing children would most likely have difficulty monitoring themselves in this social-cognitive task. Developmental differences were obselVed for the evaluation, planning and behavioural control components suggesting that older children were able to be more successful with the more explicit metacomponents. Interestingly, however, there was no age difference in terms ofLego task success in the baseline condition suggesting that without the intelVention ofthe confederate younger children monitored the task about as well as older children. This pattern ofresults indicates that the younger children were disrupted by the feedback rather than helped. On the other hand, the older children were able to incorporate the feedback offered by the confederate into a plan ofaction. Another aim ofthis study was to assess similar processing components to those investigated by the MPM Lego task in a more naturalistic observation. Together the use ofthe Lego Task ( a social cognitive task) and the naturalistic social interaction allowed for the appraisal of cross-domain continuities and discontinuities in monitoring behaviours. In this vein, analyses were undertaken in order to ascertain whether or not successful performance in the MPM Lego Task would predict cross-domain competence in the more naturalistic social interchange. Indeed, success in the two latter components ofthe MPM (planning and behavioural control) was related to overall competence in the naturalistic task. However, this cross-domain prediction was not evident for all levels ofthe naturalistic interchange suggesting that the nature ofthe feedback a child receives is an important determinant ofresponse competency. Individual difference measures reflecting the children's general cognitive capacity (Working Memory and Digit Span) and verbal ability (vocabulary) were also taken in an effort to account for more variance in the prediction oftask success. However, these individual difference measures did not serve to enhance the prediction oftask performance in either the Lego Task or the naturalistic task. Similarly, parental responses to questionnaires pertaining to their child's temperament and social experience also failed to increase prediction oftask performance. On-line measures ofthe children's engagement, positive affect and anxiety also failed to predict competence ratings.
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The purpose of the present study was to examine the role of the bystander in bullying situations. A cost/benefit model was explored in researching factors adolescents consider in deciding whether to intervene when witnessing bullying. Adolescents in the present study (N = 101 (50.5% female), between the ages of 12 to 18, M = 15.37 years; SD = 1.71 years) completed self-report questionnaires, and also responded to bullying scenarios, stating how the bystander would react, while explaining potential personal costs and benefits. Adolescents were able to articulate various personal costs and benefits when making the decision to intervene. Conclusions of the present study include: 1) the evolutionary approach is quite informative in illuminating the decision process of the bystander, 2) adolescents’ beliefs about bullying and the role of bystanders are different from their teachers’, and 3) the rather explicit cost/benefit model could be used to develop more targeted anti-bullying programs.
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L’insomnie, commune auprès de la population gériatrique, est typiquement traitée avec des benzodiazépines qui peuvent augmenter le risque des chutes. La thérapie cognitive-comportementale (TCC) est une intervention non-pharmacologique ayant une efficacité équivalente et aucun effet secondaire. Dans la présente thèse, le coût des benzodiazépines (BZD) sera comparé à celui de la TCC dans le traitement de l’insomnie auprès d’une population âgée, avec et sans considération du coût additionnel engendré par les chutes reliées à la prise des BZD. Un modèle d’arbre décisionnel a été conçu et appliqué selon la perspective du système de santé sur une période d’un an. Les probabilités de chutes, de visites à l’urgence, d’hospitalisation avec et sans fracture de la hanche, les données sur les coûts et sur les utilités ont été recueillies à partir d’une revue de la littérature. Des analyses sur le coût des conséquences, sur le coût-utilité et sur les économies potentielles ont été faites. Des analyses de sensibilité probabilistes et déterministes ont permis de prendre en considération les estimations des données. Le traitement par BZD coûte 30% fois moins cher que TCC si les coûts reliés aux chutes ne sont pas considérés (231$ CAN vs 335$ CAN/personne/année). Lorsque le coût relié aux chutes est pris en compte, la TCC s’avère être l’option la moins chère (177$ CAN d’économie absolue/ personne/année, 1,357$ CAN avec les BZD vs 1,180$ pour la TCC). La TCC a dominé l’utilisation des BZD avec une économie moyenne de 25, 743$ CAN par QALY à cause des chutes moins nombreuses observées avec la TCC. Les résultats des analyses d’économies d’argent suggèrent que si la TCC remplaçait le traitement par BZD, l’économie annuelle directe pour le traitement de l’insomnie serait de 441 millions de dollars CAN avec une économie cumulative de 112 billions de dollars canadiens sur une période de cinq ans. D’après le rapport sensibilité, le traitement par BZD coûte en moyenne 1,305$ CAN, écart type 598$ (étendue : 245-2,625)/personne/année alors qu’il en coûte moyenne 1,129$ CAN, écart type 514$ (étendue : 342-2,526)/personne/année avec la TCC. Les options actuelles de remboursement de traitements pharmacologiques au lieu des traitements non-pharmacologiques pour l’insomnie chez les personnes âgées ne permettent pas d’économie de coûts et ne sont pas recommandables éthiquement dans une perspective du système de santé.
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Travail dirigé présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise ès sciences (M. Sc.) option expertise-conseil en soins infirmiers
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Ce mémoire de maîtrise porte sur la gestion des risques informationnels dans l’entreprise privée. Plus précisément, nous avons cherché à comprendre, à partir de l’expérience et du point de vue des gestionnaires de la sécurité, comment s’élaborait une prise de décisions relativement à la protection des actifs informationnels d’une entreprise, de l’identification des risques à la mise en place de mesures visant à les réduire. Pour ce faire, nous devions dégager les éléments du contexte organisationnel qui contribuent à façonner les décisions du gestionnaire de la sécurité en cette matière en considérant deux principales dimensions : la dynamique relationnelle à l’œuvre de même que les enjeux, les contraintes et les opportunités susceptibles d’influence la prise de décisions. Nous voulions également connaitre le rôle et les responsabilités du gestionnaire de la sécurité au sein de ce processus décisionnel et préciser, le cas échéant, sa participation au modèle de gouvernance de gestion des risques. Pour rendre compte de la complexité de ce processus, il semblait approprié de concevoir un cadre théorique combinant deux approches: l’approche multidimensionnelle du risque et l’approche de la transaction sociale. Si la première considère que la définition du risque doit être contextualiser, l’autre admet que la dynamique relationnelle n’est pas le simple fait de jeux entres acteurs stratégiques. L’analyse en fonction de ses deux approches a révélé que la gestion des risques informationnels dans une entreprise est largement tributaire des caractéristiques personnelles du gestionnaire de la sécurité. Certes, le contexte organisationnel et la multiplication des enjeux sécuritaires exercent une influence considérable sur le processus décisionnel mais l’expérience, les connaissances et les capacités communicationnelles du gestionnaire contribuent directement à la réussite de chaque phase du processus de gestion des risques informationnels.
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Le nombre important de véhicules sur le réseau routier peut entraîner des problèmes d'encombrement et de sécurité. Les usagers des réseaux routiers qui nous intéressent sont les camionneurs qui transportent des marchandises, pouvant rouler avec des véhicules non conformes ou emprunter des routes interdites pour gagner du temps. Le transport de matières dangereuses est réglementé et certains lieux, surtout les ponts et les tunnels, leur sont interdits d'accès. Pour aider à faire appliquer les lois en vigueur, il existe un système de contrôles routiers composé de structures fixes et de patrouilles mobiles. Le déploiement stratégique de ces ressources de contrôle mise sur la connaissance du comportement des camionneurs que nous allons étudier à travers l'analyse de leurs choix de routes. Un problème de choix de routes peut se modéliser en utilisant la théorie des choix discrets, elle-même fondée sur la théorie de l'utilité aléatoire. Traiter ce type de problème avec cette théorie est complexe. Les modèles que nous utiliserons sont tels, que nous serons amenés à faire face à des problèmes de corrélation, puisque plusieurs routes partagent probablement des arcs. De plus, puisque nous travaillons sur le réseau routier du Québec, le choix de routes peut se faire parmi un ensemble de routes dont le nombre est potentiellement infini si on considère celles ayant des boucles. Enfin, l'étude des choix faits par un humain n'est pas triviale. Avec l'aide du modèle de choix de routes retenu, nous pourrons calculer une expression de la probabilité qu'une route soit prise par le camionneur. Nous avons abordé cette étude du comportement en commençant par un travail de description des données collectées. Le questionnaire utilisé par les contrôleurs permet de collecter des données concernant les camionneurs, leurs véhicules et le lieu du contrôle. La description des données observées est une étape essentielle, car elle permet de présenter clairement à un analyste potentiel ce qui est accessible pour étudier les comportements des camionneurs. Les données observées lors d'un contrôle constitueront ce que nous appellerons une observation. Avec les attributs du réseau, il sera possible de modéliser le réseau routier du Québec. Une sélection de certains attributs permettra de spécifier la fonction d'utilité et par conséquent la fonction permettant de calculer les probabilités de choix de routes par un camionneur. Il devient alors possible d'étudier un comportement en se basant sur des observations. Celles provenant du terrain ne nous donnent pas suffisamment d'information actuellement et même en spécifiant bien un modèle, l'estimation des paramètres n'est pas possible. Cette dernière est basée sur la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance. Nous avons l'outil, mais il nous manque la matière première que sont les observations, pour continuer l'étude. L'idée est de poursuivre avec des observations de synthèse. Nous ferons des estimations avec des observations complètes puis, pour se rapprocher des conditions réelles, nous continuerons avec des observations partielles. Ceci constitue d'ailleurs un défi majeur. Nous proposons pour ces dernières, de nous servir des résultats des travaux de (Bierlaire et Frejinger, 2008) en les combinant avec ceux de (Fosgerau, Frejinger et Karlström, 2013). Bien qu'elles soient de nature synthétiques, les observations que nous utilisons nous mèneront à des résultats tels, que nous serons en mesure de fournir une proposition concrète qui pourrait aider à optimiser les décisions des responsables des contrôles routiers. En effet, nous avons réussi à estimer, sur le réseau réel du Québec, avec un seuil de signification de 0,05 les valeurs des paramètres d'un modèle de choix de routes discrets, même lorsque les observations sont partielles. Ces résultats donneront lieu à des recommandations sur les changements à faire dans le questionnaire permettant de collecter des données.
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One major component of power system operation is generation scheduling. The objective of the work is to develop efficient control strategies to the power scheduling problems through Reinforcement Learning approaches. The three important active power scheduling problems are Unit Commitment, Economic Dispatch and Automatic Generation Control. Numerical solution methods proposed for solution of power scheduling are insufficient in handling large and complex systems. Soft Computing methods like Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Programming etc., are efficient in handling complex cost functions, but find limitation in handling stochastic data existing in a practical system. Also the learning steps are to be repeated for each load demand which increases the computation time.Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a method of learning through interactions with environment. The main advantage of this approach is it does not require a precise mathematical formulation. It can learn either by interacting with the environment or interacting with a simulation model. Several optimization and control problems have been solved through Reinforcement Learning approach. The application of Reinforcement Learning in the field of Power system has been a few. The objective is to introduce and extend Reinforcement Learning approaches for the active power scheduling problems in an implementable manner. The main objectives can be enumerated as:(i) Evolve Reinforcement Learning based solutions to the Unit Commitment Problem.(ii) Find suitable solution strategies through Reinforcement Learning approach for Economic Dispatch. (iii) Extend the Reinforcement Learning solution to Automatic Generation Control with a different perspective. (iv) Check the suitability of the scheduling solutions to one of the existing power systems.First part of the thesis is concerned with the Reinforcement Learning approach to Unit Commitment problem. Unit Commitment Problem is formulated as a multi stage decision process. Q learning solution is developed to obtain the optimwn commitment schedule. Method of state aggregation is used to formulate an efficient solution considering the minimwn up time I down time constraints. The performance of the algorithms are evaluated for different systems and compared with other stochastic methods like Genetic Algorithm.Second stage of the work is concerned with solving Economic Dispatch problem. A simple and straight forward decision making strategy is first proposed in the Learning Automata algorithm. Then to solve the scheduling task of systems with large number of generating units, the problem is formulated as a multi stage decision making task. The solution obtained is extended in order to incorporate the transmission losses in the system. To make the Reinforcement Learning solution more efficient and to handle continuous state space, a fimction approximation strategy is proposed. The performance of the developed algorithms are tested for several standard test cases. Proposed method is compared with other recent methods like Partition Approach Algorithm, Simulated Annealing etc.As the final step of implementing the active power control loops in power system, Automatic Generation Control is also taken into consideration.Reinforcement Learning has already been applied to solve Automatic Generation Control loop. The RL solution is extended to take up the approach of common frequency for all the interconnected areas, more similar to practical systems. Performance of the RL controller is also compared with that of the conventional integral controller.In order to prove the suitability of the proposed methods to practical systems, second plant ofNeyveli Thennal Power Station (NTPS IT) is taken for case study. The perfonnance of the Reinforcement Learning solution is found to be better than the other existing methods, which provide the promising step towards RL based control schemes for practical power industry.Reinforcement Learning is applied to solve the scheduling problems in the power industry and found to give satisfactory perfonnance. Proposed solution provides a scope for getting more profit as the economic schedule is obtained instantaneously. Since Reinforcement Learning method can take the stochastic cost data obtained time to time from a plant, it gives an implementable method. As a further step, with suitable methods to interface with on line data, economic scheduling can be achieved instantaneously in a generation control center. Also power scheduling of systems with different sources such as hydro, thermal etc. can be looked into and Reinforcement Learning solutions can be achieved.