Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Application of carnauba-based wax maintains postharvest quality of 'Ortanique' tangor

This study aimed at evaluating compositional changes in the quality of 'Ortanique' tangor after coating with the carnauba-based waxes Aruá Tropical® or Star Light®. The storage conditions studied simulated those of local marketing (22 ± 2 °C, 60 ± 5% RH). Non-destructive analysis, mass loss, peel color, and sensory evaluation, were performed upon coating and every three days up to the fifteenth day of storage. Destructive analysis, peel moisture content, chlorophyll of the peel, pulp color, juice content, soluble solids (SS), titratable acidity (TA), pH, and soluble solids to titratable acidity ratio, were performed upon coating and every four days up to the sixteenth day of storage. The assay was conducted using an entirely randomized design, with three replications (destructive analyses) or ten replications (non-destructive analyses), in a split plot scheme. Wax-coating, especially Aruá Tropical®, maintained fruit freshness by reducing mass loss and peel dehydration and retaining green color. Peel moisture content, chlorophyll content, and juice content had lower rates in the wax coated fruits. Puncture force, soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, and soluble solids to titratable acidity ratio varied vary little over the course of storage. Sensory evaluation showed that the application of Aruá Tropical keeps 'Ortanique' tangor fresher for 6 days longer for commercialization.

Application of protein-phenolic based coating on tomatoes (Lycopersicum esculentum)

The aim of this study was to investigate the use of protein-phenolic based coating made from fermented rice bran on cherry tomatoes (Lycopersicum esculentum). Tests were performed with glycerol 3% (v/v), glycerol with protein-phenolic rice bran extract (5%), glycerol with protein-phenolic extract after 96 hours of fermentation (5%), and a control (without coating). The coated cherry tomatoes were kept at room temperature for 28 days. Mass loss, pH and acidity, total soluble solids, and carotenoids were determined every 96 hours. The coating made from the biomass extract reduced the carotenoid and acidity levels in the fruits studied by 17 and 21.1%, respectively, compared to the control. The coating proved an efficient barrier to water vapor with mass loss of 57% less than the control suggesting that it can be used as an alternative for vegetable tissue conservation.

Deconstructing Evidence-Based Practice and Its Application in Children to with Mental Health Disorders

This is a mixed methodology study that uses an autoethnographic approach to combine both an autobiography and a survey of practitioners who work in children’s mental health. It is largely about the implementation of Evidence-Based Practice (EBP), and the questions, concerns, experiences that I have had, and compared them with those of my fellow practitioners. In addition, it is about my journey as a mental health professional, and how I have come to recognize that in order to achieve the goals I wanted to achieve, I needed to return to university to pursue a Master’s degree. Within the research, I identify and discuss different definitions of EBP and identify several themes. I deconstruct the implementation of EBPs through the lens of Foucault and his notions of governmentality. I offer policy and practice recommendations to improve the implementation of EBP and the services received by children facing mental health issues.

Propagation of Microwaves in the Troposphere with Potential Application to GPS based Navigation and Meteorology with emphasis on Indian region

Global Positioning System (GPS), with its high integrity, continuous availability and reliability, revolutionized the navigation system based on radio ranging. With four or more GPS satellites in view, a GPS receiver can find its location anywhere over the globe with accuracy of few meters. High accuracy - within centimeters, or even millimeters is achievable by correcting the GPS signal with external augmentation system. The use of satellite for critical application like navigation has become a reality through the development of these augmentation systems (like W AAS, SDCM, and EGNOS, etc.) with a primary objective of providing essential integrity information needed for navigation service in their respective regions. Apart from these, many countries have initiated developing space-based regional augmentation systems like GAGAN and IRNSS of India, MSAS and QZSS of Japan, COMPASS of China, etc. In future, these regional systems will operate simultaneously and emerge as a Global Navigation Satellite System or GNSS to support a broad range of activities in the global navigation sector.Among different types of error sources in the GPS precise positioning, the propagation delay due to the atmospheric refraction is a limiting factor on the achievable accuracy using this system. The WADGPS, aimed for accurate positioning over a large area though broadcasts different errors involved in GPS ranging including ionosphere and troposphere errors, due to the large temporal and spatial variations in different atmospheric parameters especially in lower atmosphere (troposphere), the use of these broadcasted tropospheric corrections are not sufficiently accurate. This necessitated the estimation of tropospheric error based on realistic values of tropospheric refractivity. Presently available methodologies for the estimation of tropospheric delay are mostly based on the atmospheric data and GPS measurements from the mid-latitude regions, where the atmospheric conditions are significantly different from that over the tropics. No such attempts were made over the tropics. In a practical approach when the measured atmospheric parameters are not available analytical models evolved using data from mid-latitudes for this purpose alone can be used. The major drawback of these existing models is that it neglects the seasonal variation of the atmospheric parameters at stations near the equator. At tropics the model underestimates the delay in quite a few occasions. In this context, the present study is afirst and major step towards the development of models for tropospheric delay over the Indian region which is a prime requisite for future space based navigation program (GAGAN and IRNSS). Apart from the models based on the measured surface parameters, a region specific model which does not require any measured atmospheric parameter as input, but depends on latitude and day of the year was developed for the tropical region with emphasis on Indian sector.Large variability of atmospheric water vapor content in short spatial and/or temporal scales makes its measurement rather involved and expensive. A local network of GPS receivers is an effective tool for water vapor remote sensing over the land. This recently developed technique proves to be an effective tool for measuring PW. The potential of using GPS to estimate water vapor in the atmosphere at all-weather condition and with high temporal resolution is attempted. This will be useful for retrieving columnar water vapor from ground based GPS data. A good network of GPS could be a major source of water vapor information for Numerical Weather Prediction models and could act as surrogate to the data gap in microwave remote sensing for water vapor over land.

Estimators and Tests based on Likelihood-Depth with Application to Weibull Distribution, Gaussian and Gumbel Copula

In dieser Arbeit werden mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen, eingeführt von Mizera und Müller (2004), (ausreißer-)robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter einer stetigen Dichtefunktion entwickelt. Die entwickelten Verfahren werden dann auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt. Für eindimensionale Parameter wird die Likelihood-Tiefe eines Parameters im Datensatz als das Minimum aus dem Anteil der Daten, für die die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, und dem Anteil der Daten, für die diese Ableitung nicht positiv ist, berechnet. Damit hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den beide Anzahlen gleich groß sind. Dieser wird zunächst als Schätzer gewählt, da die Likelihood-Tiefe ein Maß dafür sein soll, wie gut ein Parameter zum Datensatz passt. Asymptotisch hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass für eine Beobachtung die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, gleich einhalb ist. Wenn dies für den zu Grunde liegenden Parameter nicht der Fall ist, ist der Schätzer basierend auf der Likelihood-Tiefe verfälscht. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie diese Verfälschung korrigiert werden kann sodass die korrigierten Schätzer konsistente Schätzungen bilden. Zur Entwicklung von Tests für den Parameter, wird die von Müller (2005) entwickelte Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe, die eine U-Statistik ist, benutzt. Es zeigt sich, dass für dieselben Verteilungen, für die die Likelihood-Tiefe verfälschte Schätzer liefert, die Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe eine unverfälschte U-Statistik ist. Damit ist insbesondere die asymptotische Verteilung bekannt und es lassen sich Tests für verschiedene Hypothesen formulieren. Die Verschiebung in der Tiefe führt aber für einige Hypothesen zu einer schlechten Güte des zugehörigen Tests. Es werden daher korrigierte Tests eingeführt und Voraussetzungen angegeben, unter denen diese dann konsistent sind. Die Arbeit besteht aus zwei Teilen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird die allgemeine Theorie über die Schätzfunktionen und Tests dargestellt und zudem deren jeweiligen Konsistenz gezeigt. Im zweiten Teil wird die Theorie auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt: Die Weibull-Verteilung, die Gauß- und die Gumbel-Copula. Damit wird gezeigt, wie die Verfahren des ersten Teils genutzt werden können, um (robuste) konsistente Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter der Verteilung herzuleiten. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass für die drei Verteilungen mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests gefunden werden können. In unverfälschten Daten sind vorhandene Standardmethoden zum Teil überlegen, jedoch zeigt sich der Vorteil der neuen Methoden in kontaminierten Daten und Daten mit Ausreißern.

Application of agent-based modeling to the study of gender stereotypes

Gender stereotypes are sets of characteristics that people believe to be typically true of a man or woman. We report an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates how stereotypes disseminate in a group through associative mechanisms. The model consists of agents that carry one of several different versions of a stereotype, which share part of their conceptual content. When an agent acts according to his/her stereotype, and that stereotype is shared by an observer, then the latter’s stereotype strengthens. Contrarily, if the agent does not act according to his/ her stereotype, then the observer’s stereotype weakens. In successive interactions, agents develop preferences, such that there will be a higher probability of interaction with agents that confirm their stereotypes. Depending on the proportion of shared conceptual content in the stereotype’s different versions, three dynamics emerge: all stereotypes in the population strengthen, all weaken, or a bifurcation occurs, i.e., some strengthen and some weaken. Additionally, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling to study social phenomena and the practical consequences that the model’s results might have on stereotype research and their effects on a community

A new IRT-based standard setting method : Application to eCat-Listening

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Application of cognitive diagnosis models to competency-based situational judgment tests

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

A Packet/Frame sync detector based on statistical mode with application to wireless-USB

Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPANs) are offering high data rates suitable for interconnecting high bandwidth personal consumer devices (Wireless HD streaming, Wireless-USB and Bluetooth EDR). ECMA-368 is the Physical (PHY) and Media Access Control (MAC) backbone of many of these wireless devices. WPAN devices tend to operate in an ad-hoc based network and therefore it is important to successfully latch onto the network and become part of one of the available piconets. This paper presents a new algorithm for detecting the Packet/Fame Sync (PFS) signal in ECMA-368 to identify piconets and aid symbol timing. The algorithm is based on correlating the received PFS symbols with the expected locally stored symbols over the 24 or 12 PFS symbols, but selecting the likely TFC based on the highest statistical mode from the 24 or 12 best correlation results. The results are very favorable showing an improvement margin in the order of 11.5dB in reference sensitivity tests between the required performance using this algorithm and the performance of comparable systems.