Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

The role of adiposity in cardiometabolic traits:a Mendelian randomization analysis

The association between adiposity and cardiometabolic traits is well known from epidemiological studies. Whilst the causal relationship is clear for some of these traits, for others it is not. We aimed to determine whether adiposity is causally related to various cardiometabolic traits using the Mendelian randomization approach.

Voyage(s) to Sarajevo: Jean-Luc Godard and the Image of War

This essay discusses Jean-Luc Godard’s artistic response to the Bosnian War (1992-95), and its representations in the Western mass media. For Godard, the reluctance of Europe’s advanced liberal democracies to intervene meaningfully in Bosnia – their insistence that 'humanitarianism' rather than protective intervention was the order of the day – was tantamount to supporting Serbian fascism, and – a fortiori – regressing to a policy of appeasement reminiscent of the days of the Munich Agreement. Although Godard's stance set him against some of his former compatriots on the left, speculating on his ideological motivations is beside the point. Rather, it is is in his filmmaking, in his vision of cinema, and how it relates to other histories of the image, that Godard’s sensibility can be most keenly felt and understood. As the essay points out, even his recent contribution to Jean-Michel Frodon's compilation film, Bridges of Sarajevo/Les ponts de Sarajevo (2014, 114 mn.), persists in posing questions about how the past continues to shape the present, and how Sarajevo and its contemporary history still delineates the identity of Europe. 

Making space: English women, letter-writing, and the life of the mind, c.1650-1750

This article uses women's letter-writing from the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries to explore the home as a site of female intellectual endeavour. Far from representing a static backdrop to the action of domestic life, the home played a dynamic role in women's experiences of the life of the mind and shaped the ways in which women thought and wrote. Letters were penned in dining rooms, parlours and closets, by firesides, and on desks and laps. In their letters, women projected images of themselves scribbling epistles to friends in order to maintain their mental intimacy. Space was both real and imagined and the physical realities of a hand-written and hand-delivered letter gave way to the imaginative possibilities brought by networks of epistolary exchange and the alternative spaces of creative thought. By reinstating the home more fully in the history of female intellectual experience, a more nuanced view of the domestic arena can be developed: one that sees the home not as a site of exclusion and confinement, but as a space for scholarship and exchange. 

Women, letter-writing and the life of the mind in England, c.1650-1750

Drawing on national and regional letter collections dating from the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries, this article explores women's experiences of the life of the mind through an analysis of their letter-writing. This study also highlights the shortcomings of the compartmentalised nature of scholarship on women's writing and intellectual lives and proposes the letter both as a beneficial historical source and methodological tool for research on women's mental worlds. By employing an inclusive definition of intellectual and creative life, and eschewing traditional benchmarks of achievement, this article contends that women took a full part in the cultures of knowledge of their time. 

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Adiposity as a cause of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity, as indicated by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases in epidemiological studies. We aimed to investigate if these associations are causal, using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

Methods: The associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes [coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure and ischaemic stroke], and associations of a genetic score (32 BMI single nucleotide polymorphisms) with BMI and cardiovascular outcomes were examined in up to 22 193 individuals with 3062 incident cardiovascular events from nine prospective follow-up studies within the ENGAGE consortium. We used random-effects meta-analysis in an MR framework to provide causal estimates of the effect of adiposity on cardiovascular outcomes.

Results: There was a strong association between BMI and incident CHD (HR = 1.20 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–1.28, P = 1.9·10−7), heart failure (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.35–1.60, P = 9·10−19) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.15, 95% CI, 1.06–1.24, P = 0.0008) in observational analyses. The genetic score was robustly associated with BMI (β = 0.030 SD-increase of BMI per additional allele, 95% CI, 0.028–0.033, P = 3·10−107). Analyses indicated a causal effect of adiposity on development of heart failure (HR = 1.93 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–3.30, P = 0.017) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.83, 95% CI, 1.05–3.20, P = 0.034). Additional cross-sectional analyses using both ENGAGE and CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data showed a causal effect of adiposity on CHD.

Conclusions: Using MR methods, we provide support for the hypothesis that adiposity causes CHD, heart failure and, previously not demonstrated, ischaemic stroke.

Compte rendu: Cyril Trimaille et Jean-Michel Éloy (dir.) (2013), Idéologies linguistiques et discriminations, Paris, L’Harmattan, coll. « Carnets d’atelier de sociolinguistique, 6 », 268 p. [ISBN : 978-2-336-29083-6]

Résumé non disponible

A luz na pintura de representação : mito, representação e luz na prática pictórica : (1550-1650)

Tese de doutoramento, Belas-Artes (Pintura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Belas-Artes, 2014

O auteur a ver-se a si mesmo ao espelho: as alegorias do enunciador em Jean Cocteau

ABSTRACT - Jean Cocteau, French cinema auteur avant la lettre, has consecrated his uniqueness to the defense of the “poet” and the promotion of its artistic ideals, before the French Nouvelle Vague inspired the break away from the filmic tradition and ahead of the eulogistic tendency to consider the director the undisputed creative entity of the filmmaking process. The Orphic trilogy expresses Cocteau’s cinematic philosophy in action. In other words, it reveals the way by which the creative entity affirms itself as the major filmic enunciator, through an allegorical relationship with vision. Therefore, Cocteau’s self-reflexive metacinema conjoins, in a fertile attunement, the starting point and the ultimate goal, the creation and the reception. Without being exactly a cinema about the cinema, this artistic practice is, nonetheless, very much with the cinema, feeding as it does on its essence. The films Le Sang d’un poète (“The Blood of a Poet”, 1932), Orphée (“Orpheus”, 1950) and Le Testament d’Orphée, ou ne me demandez pas pourquoi! (“Testament of Orpheus”, 1960) recreate, in allegorical form, the double creative function: the look of the directing entity reflects the gaze of the observer, just as this one always restores the presence of the creator. In short: Cocteau’s films, more than anyone else’s, deliberately reflect its auteur as enunciator.

O fantástico em Fialho de Almeida e Jean Lorrain pessimismo e decadentismo finisseculares

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estudos Portugueses - Estudos Comparatistas

A representação da freguesia de Santa Justa (Lisboa) nos Róis de Confessados (1693-1702)

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em História Moderna e dos Descobrimentos.